Confirmed with Link: Buchnevich signs extension with the Blues (6 years, $8M AAV; begins 2025-26)

[BlueSeal]

Eh, I am very skeptical of the Blues long term plan and ambitions but I think you’re overstating how difficult it is for a team to make the NHL playoffs. Outside of maybe 5 teams in the league any roster is a flukey PDO fueled couple months away from making the postseason. I agree that it’s not likely this roster makes the playoffs, but saying they “can’t” is extreme.

"Extreme"... alright...

Let me put it another way:

How much has the team improved in the offseason that we can say, at this point, that they could make the playoffs based on the roster alone? They haven't.

Sure, they /could/ make the playoffs if other team absolutely shit the bed at the wrong time or if we have a player have an insane year and help carry the team there, but these are situations that are in spite of the team's construction, not because of it. And I don't count on those things.

This team has a habit of vanishing for entire periods of games and I've seen nothing that convinces me that it won't continue. I'm sorry if this bothers people for me saying this, but it's the truth and as much as you may hate it, you can't say I don't have a point. I personally don't see this team making the playoffs and I think that's an absolutely fair and credible stance given the last two seasons and the upcoming one with this roster.

This is all why I call 2019 a wonderful fluke. It wasn't some battleplan that Army came up with, everything went right, teams got injured or didn't have the drive we had, and we hit them all at the right times, we allowed a ROOKIE netminder to play in the playoffs which when you think about it, is pretty damn insane and JayBo went from looking washed up to getting a second wind that is ridiculously underrated. It was a season that a hand goal counted and we turned around and vaporized the Sharks in glorious fking fashion, so if you don't believe in flukes, explain that one.

You can't plan any of that, ever, so I give Army his due because the group he brought in worked and sometimes that's all the credit he will ever need from me. But to sit here and think that Army thinks this team, built right now the way it is, can make the playoffs, especially while other teams have upgraded, and/or think that the Blues are anything of a contender, now THAT is extreme.

Feel free to fight me.

 

[Thallis]

I’m not sure you’re paying Buch to be that guy when we’re in our next perceived window.

You’re paying him to help create a culture right now and not send Kyrou/Thomas through a boat load of meaningless hockey while they’re still in a development window.

I too have the concern of how we can acquire/add a 1D with this strategy. But all we’re really counting on from this forward group of prospects is 2 to be top 6 players. 8m is far from crippling, like Steens contract was. If we have to have Buch a veteran with a history of being a fantastic 200 foot player on our 3rd line in 4-5 years at around presumably 8 or less percent of the cap, it would take multiple bad moves for that to completely hinder us, or other guys not stepping up and into roles in which we need them to.

The only veteran contacts we will have in 4 years will be Schenn expiring, Parayko and Buch. And that will be for about 21m. If we can’t competently have 4 or 5 bridge deals or ELCs scattered in there with the amount of draft capital we’ve had over the last couple of years, I think our development program is more of a failure than the contracts we’ve handed out.

If they are just top 6 players we won't be contenders. We need bonafide top line talent from our prospect group. If we're going into the playoffs with Dvorsky at Schenn's level during the cup win and Snuggerud at Perron's we won't be contenders. Our current forward group is not at the quality that 2 top 6ers makes us contenders, even if we did rebuild the defense.

 

[The Note]

"Extreme"... alright...

Let me put it another way:

How much has the team improved in the offseason that we can say, at this point, that they could make the playoffs based on the roster alone? They haven't.

Sure, they /could/ make the playoffs if other team absolutely shit the bed at the wrong time or if we have a player have an insane year and help carry the team there, but these are situations that are in spite of the team's construction, not because of it. And I don't count on those things.

This team has a habit of vanishing for entire periods of games and I've seen nothing that convinces me that it won't continue. I'm sorry if this bothers people for me saying this, but it's the truth and as much as you may hate it, you can't say I don't have a point. I personally don't see this team making the playoffs and I think that's an absolutely fair and credible stance given the last two seasons and the upcoming one with this roster.

This is all why I call 2019 a wonderful fluke. It wasn't some battleplan that Army came up with, everything went right, teams got injured or didn't have the drive we had, and we hit them all at the right times, we allowed a ROOKIE netminder to play in the playoffs which when you think about it, is pretty damn insane and JayBo went from looking washed up to getting a second wind that is ridiculously underrated. It was a season that a hand goal counted and we turned around and vaporized the Sharks in glorious fking fashion, so if you don't believe in flukes, explain that one.

You can't plan any of that, ever, so I give Army his due because the group he brought in worked and sometimes that's all the credit he will ever need from me. But to sit here and think that Army thinks this team, built right now the way it is, can make the playoffs, especially while other teams have upgraded, and/or think that the Blues are anything of a contender, now THAT is extreme.

Feel free to fight me.

To be clear, I don’t think much of this roster nor do I agree with the way they’ve chosen to go about rebuilding the team. I think we largely agree. I just think you’re overstating the difficulty of making the NHL playoffs where bad/middling teams make the postseason every year. Do I think it’s the most likely outcome for this group? Not really. But, would I be stunned if they make the playoffs and are cannon fodder in the first round? Not at all.

 

[BleedBlue14]

If they are just top 6 players we won't be contenders. We need bonafide top line talent from our prospect group. If we're going into the playoffs with Dvorsky at Schenn's level during the cup win and Snuggerud at Perron's we won't be contenders. Our current forward group is not at the quality that 2 top 6ers makes us contenders, even if we did rebuild the defense.

I think it’s really hard to tell what guys who haven’t been in that position yet are going to be capable of doing.

Thomas, buch Kyrou formed a pretty good top line last year. Mind you that was with a pretty sub par group of puck movers from the back end

 

[Celtic Note]

I think it’s really hard to tell what guys who haven’t been in that position yet are going to be capable of doing.

Thomas, buch Kyrou formed a pretty good top line last year. Mind you that was with a pretty sub par group of puck movers from the back end

Agreed but that’s only 3 of 6. We still need another 3 who can help us crank the dial up.

 

[BlueSeal]

If they are just top 6 players we won't be contenders. We need bonafide top line talent from our prospect group. If we're going into the playoffs with Dvorsky at Schenn's level during the cup win and Snuggerud at Perron's we won't be contenders. Our current forward group is not at the quality that 2 top 6ers makes us contenders, even if we did rebuild the defense.

Rebuilding the blueline would do wonders for this team and should be the priority but I get the feeling that Army thinks the blueline is good enough to compete.

 

[HighNote]

I’m not sure you’re paying Buch to be that guy when we’re in our next perceived window.

You’re paying him to help create a culture right now and not send Kyrou/Thomas through a boat load of meaningless hockey while they’re still in a development window.

I too have the concern of how we can acquire/add a 1D with this strategy. But all we’re really counting on from this forward group of prospects is 2 to be top 6 players. 8m is far from crippling, like Steens contract was. If we have to have Buch a veteran with a history of being a fantastic 200 foot player on our 3rd line in 4-5 years at around presumably 8 or less percent of the cap, it would take multiple bad moves for that to completely hinder us, or other guys not stepping up and into roles in which we need them to.

The only veteran contacts we will have in 4 years will be Schenn expiring, Parayko and Buch. And that will be for about 21m. If we can’t competently have 4 or 5 bridge deals or ELCs scattered in there with the amount of draft capital we’ve had over the last couple of years, I think our development program is more of a failure than the contracts we’ve handed out.

To be clear, I think Buch is currently in that 2A category. And as you've said, by the time we are competing, he may well be in that 2B category as a 3rd liner.

I agree with you that Buch could have a similar trajectory to Steen in terms of their role.

 

[Mike Liut]

I’ve said this before and I think it’s true… the NHL doesn’t have any powerhouse teams. If the Blues can add a #1 LD and a #2 C in the next 2 years, and if the youngsters progress, We could easily be in contention. I’m not saying that’s easy, buts not out of the question.

 

[rumrokh]

I’ve said this before and I think it’s true… the NHL doesn’t have any powerhouse teams. If the Blues can add a #1 LD and a #2 C in the next 2 years, and if the youngsters progress, We could easily be in contention. I’m not saying that’s easy, buts not out of the question.

A LOT changes in a few years in the league. Imagine describing the Cup team to a fan two or three years prior.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Rebuilding the blueline would do wonders for this team and should be the priority but I get the feeling that Army thinks the blueline is good enough to compete.

What makes you say that? Everything I have read indicates that he has been trying to improve blueline, both short and longterm, with mixed success so far. He isn't going to just say "our D sucks so we can't make playoffs", but I haven't seen anything that endorses the current state of the D (other than some comments on Parayko) from him. If we can see that our D isn't up to par, why don't you think that our GM does?

 

[Eldon Reid]

I’ve said this before and I think it’s true… the NHL doesn’t have any powerhouse teams. If the Blues can add a #1 LD and a #2 C in the next 2 years, and if the youngsters progress, We could easily be in contention. I’m not saying that’s easy, buts not out of the question.

I think next year will be the big off-season for the Blues for stuff like that.

Krug, Leddy, Faulk, & Saad all go from NTC to M-NTC. Faksa & Kapanen will be gone. It will open up some more spots and cap space.

 

[BleedBlue14]

To be clear, I think Buch is currently in that 2A category. And as you've said, by the time we are competing, he may well be in that 2B category as a 3rd liner.

I agree with you that Buch could have a similar trajectory to Steen in terms of their role.

I think it’s easy on paper to overlook what the “old” guys offer. Buch is a great player, and seems to be a great guy in the locker room who wants to win. I’m glad we’re keeping him around in this transitional phase. I don’t know if we’ll be the old heavy game Blues. But I think Buch, Sunny and Steen are great guys for the young guys to lean on in terms of how to be pros.

 

[BlueSeal]

What makes you say that? Everything I have read indicates that he has been trying to improve blueline, both short and longterm, with mixed success so far. He isn't going to just say "our D sucks so we can't make playoffs", but I haven't seen anything that endorses the current state of the D (other than some comments on Parayko) from him. If we can see that our D isn't up to par, why don't you think that our GM does?

He gave all our top 4 Dmen on the team full NTCs.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

He gave all our top 4 Dmen on the team full NTCs.

Which he clearly regrets. We know he’s been trying to deal krug. There have been rumors about others. I have no idea whether he will actually deal one this summer, but I expect he’s still trying.

 

[Ranksu]

Dont you guys think there is almost 2mill.$ too much on aav?

 

[Davimir Tarablad]

Dont you guys think there is almost 2mill.$ too much on aav?

Near PPG players are worth more than $6mil AAV these days

 

[Mike Liut]

Dont you guys think there is almost 2mill.$ too much on aav?

I love the city of St. Louis (well, the suburbs), but it’s not like players are beating our door down to come here, so you sometimes have to overpay to get players. It’s just reality.

 

[BlueSeal]

Dont you guys think there is almost 2mill.$ too much on aav?

I think its sound money for a sound player. You know your guy is good when every other fanbase was drooling like f-k when they thought he might be available. It's far better money spent than on folks like Krug, who we beat for the Cup and then decided since we can beat him, he can join us lol. Someone needs to explain that expression better to Army, I guess .

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

Dont you guys think there is almost 2mill.$ too much on aav?

Absolutely not. If anything it's a half million and a year shy of what he could fetch on the open market.

 

[TheDizee]

Steen? Love the guy but he was a 4th liner who could hop up to the 3rd line when needed. He doesn't even register in terms of individual importance. That 4th line was great and a pain to play against, but Steen was just a part of a bigger whole. He was not taking over games almost single-handedly in the way that guys like Pietrangelo, O'Reilly, and at times Schwartz, Tarasenko and Binnington were. In terms of skaters, in order of importance it looks like this:

1A - Pietrangelo
1B - O'Reilly
2A - Parayko/Bouwmeester/Tarasenko/Schwartz
2B - Perron/Schenn

Pietrangelo and O'Reilly were absolutely the two pillars that that team was built around. There's a clear gap between them and the next group. Those two were out there for just about every important situation, offensively or defensively, powerplay, penalty kill, you name it. They were clutch, they elevated their games in big moments and took over games/series. O'Reilly got better and better as the playoffs went on, but he absolutely dominated against Boston with 9 points in 7 games, and a goal in each of the last four games (5 total) while playing stellar defensively. He outplayed HOF perennial Selke winner Bergeron in what was a career year for him.

Games 4-7 of the Final:
O'Reilly: 5G, 2A, 7PTS, +7
Bergeron: 0G, 1A, 1PTS, -2

That's the kind of player you build around.

Steen's contract was signed when he was a key cog.

 

[HighNote]

Steen's contract was signed when he was a key cog.

Even at his peak he was not a player you build around. He was a complimentary piece. I agree that he was a part of our core, just not one of the pillars if you will.

 

[Davimir Tarablad]

I love the city of St. Louis (well, the suburbs), but it’s not like players are beating our door down to come here, so you sometimes have to overpay to get players. It’s just reality.

Why would you say we overpaid? Buch’s contract compares favorably to Guentzel’s, and Buch’s deal doesn’t include any sort of NMC or bonuses(nearly 85% of Guentzel’s contract is signing bonuses)

 

[tomin]

Love the extension. Doesn’t hurt us at all. Spreads weight of Kyrou &Thomas. Everyone learns from him. He’s a really good player. I also believe Doug wants to improve D and F. He is still “cooking” as they say. The immediate years ahead I think we improve in F & Doug buys a D man.

 

[Brian39]

He gave all our top 4 Dmen on the team full NTCs.

...years ago.

Faulk's contract was signed in 2019 and the NTC becomes a limited NTC next summer.

Krug's contract was signed in 2020 and the NTC becomes a limited NTC next summer.

Parayko's contract was signed in 2021 and the NTC becomes a limited NTC in the summer of 2028.

Leddy's contract was signed in 2022 and the NTC becomes a limited NTC next summer.

3 of the 4 clauses switching from full NTCs to 15 team no-trade lists next summer very much suggests that Army fully believed that at least one would need to be moved before the 2025/26 season for the blueline to remain good enough to compete. Even if you ignore that a GM's opinion of a player will change over a 2-5 year period of time, his opinion as expressed via contractual trade protection clearly indicated that he anticipated decline and a need for flexibility to move them.

But more importantly, OPINIONS CHANGE WITH NEW DATA. All of these contracts were signed when the team was in a contention window. We signed Faulk just before the season began in our Cup-defense season. We signed Krug the summer after we had the 2nd best record in the NHL and then a disastrous return-to-play bubble playoff. We extended Parayko after the COVID year where we again made the playoffs and looked awful when he was out of the lineup. We extended Leddy after acquiring him as a rental during a 109 point season where we gave the eventual Cup champs their best series despite multiple injuries (including Binner who was on fire). All of those contracts were given out when the team was in a drastically different state and the players were noticeably younger.

Army has absolutely made mistakes with the D, but it is crazy to try and gauge his current opinion on the quality of the blueline based on trade protection he gave to these guys years ago when we were in win-now mode.