Prospect Info: Bruins Prospects Discussion

[sisu]

thanks for the insight fonz, i enjoyed the read

I'm far from an authority but I do dabble in analytics and have for many years. So I'll speak from that viewpoint, just from my own experience as an analytic hobbyist...

 

[GloryDaze4877]

Zack Senyshyn with a goal today.

No assists?

 

[whatsbruin]

Congrats Charlie

Is that a black and white pic ?
How about some color guys.

 

[Bergyesque]

Reading comments, observations and reactions on Senyshyn, it “feels†like he’s going to be either a complete miss or a game winning grand slam (even better, a World Series winning grand slam!).

I don’t know why. It seems like there is absolutely no middle ground here.

The kid is a special case.

 

[pierre gagnon*]

Peter Cehlarik leads the AHL with 13 goals as a rookie -3rd round pick -2013

Anders Bjork has 28 pts in 17 games for Notre Dame, 6th in the nation -5th round pick -2014

Zane McIntyre, 1.31 GAA leads the AHL -6th -round 2010

 

[Saxon Eric]

Peter Cehlarik leads the AHL with 13 goals as a rookie -3rd round pick -2013

Anders Bjork has 28 pts in 17 games for Notre Dame, 6th in the nation -5th round pick -2014

Zane McIntyre, 1.31 GAA leads the AHL -6th -round 2010

What's their 40 time?

 

[Bad Puck Bounce]

Lauzon has been very impressive for Canada in this preliminary game. Great gap control, a physical presence.

 

[DKH]

Reading comments, observations and reactions on Senyshyn, it “feels†like he’s going to be either a complete miss or a game winning grand slam (even better, a World Series winning grand slam!).

I don’t know why. It seems like there is absolutely no middle ground here.

The kid is a special case.

Actually there 3 people who think he will suck and probably 50 who like him a lot

You couldn't get 50 out of 53 here to agree this is a Bruins message board.

 

[TMac21]

Lauzon has been very impressive for Canada in this preliminary game. Great gap control, a physical presence.

Ferraro on TSN said he was the best dman for Canada tonight.

 

[Sharp Shooting Neely]

Ferraro on TSN said he was the best dman for Canada tonight.

Great performance! Lot's more of that to come for Mr. Lauzon in the short and long term.

Wonder if the site will get as many pages/days of chatter for the pick who is there in comparison to the the one who is not?

 

[Montecristo]

Actually there 3 people who think he will suck and probably 50 who like him a lot

You couldn't get 50 out of 53 here to agree this is a Bruins message board.

I think I'm the middle ground here. I think he'll be a solid 3rd-4th line regular at the NHL level. 10-20 goals 25-30 points per year type player. Don't think he'll bust, just think he's not going to be looked at as a great pick at 15. Average pick at 15.

 

[Absurdity]

I think I'm the middle ground here. I think he'll be a solid 3rd-4th line regular at the NHL level. 10-20 goals 25-30 points per year type player. Don't think he'll bust, just think he's not going to be looked at as a great pick at 15. Average pick at 15.

In my opinion, I think that assessment is hovering around bust territory. Although he's known to be a goal scorer, he currently has 6 fewer assists than goals (25gp 17g 11a 28p). I think his floor is something around being a smarter, faster, and more physical Reilly Smith (40-50pts). The Bruins have asked him to work on his two-way game, and by all accounts he has been working on it. In my opinion, if he's willing to fix the holes in his game and does, then I think he has a good chance of reaching his potential of being a quality top 6 RW.

 

[neldogger]

I'm far from an authority but I do dabble in analytics and have for many years. So I'll speak from that viewpoint, just from my own experience as an analytic hobbyist

When making NHLe's for predictive purposes, there is not an agreement on one right way. From the work I've done with them, the single most predictive metric for forecasting offensive forwards is NON POWER PLAY GOALS PER 60. Gabriel Desjardin originally put forth NON POWER PLAY GOALS PER GAME, which is good too, but if you can break it to per 60 minutes it's even more accurate. I like to pull out the empty netters as well.

The fact is goals are goals. There is a variety of ways to score them and while they are often individually a product of luck, over time they become predictive with players who consistently produce and who consistently improve. As long as games are won and lost by the team who has the most goals, then players who can produce goals will be in big demand. Since past results are the best predictor of future results, players who's body of work includes consistent high end production of goals over time are valuable assets and identifying those players is a high priority on any team.

Assists have more variables. Often times 2nd assists are total phantoms. especially in junior games where teams assist totals at home are typically higher than on the road and some barns are more notoriously for gifting phantoms than others. Then there are the meaningless touches that get awarded as assists. A center loses a draw, but it's retrieved and sent back to the point where the d-man shoots and scores. Centerman gets second assist and he may have never touched the puck. Other assists aren't even meant to be assists. A harmless chip off the glass finds a friendly stick in the neutral zone who dangles a defender, nascars the net and finds a high guy in the slot, but the chip off the glass gets an assist.

There's been phantom goals as well, but few and far between. Even the back door tap ins seem like gifts, but the goal scorer still has to read the play, get to the right spot, maybe shake a defender, have his stick on the ice and be ready for the pass. There's skills there and intent that a lost faceoff or chip off the glass for example, just don't have.

Forwards who score goals translate their entire point totals, not just the goals. Many forwards who are goal heavy have closer to a 1:1 goal assist ratio. Elite players have the heavy goal totals and still maintain a 1:2 goals to assist ratio. Like McDavid, Tavares, Kane etc.

And the numbers bear out the theory. Forwards who don't score goals at the high end, but who's points are lopsided in assists rarely translate to the NHL game. When you see forwards with assist ratios of 3:1, 4:1, 5:1, 6:1 for example. That's all fluff. It rarely translates to the pro game. You look at the best playmakers in the history of the game - guys like Adam Oates and Wayne Gretzky. Oates assist to goal ratio was 2:1 as an amatuer and Gretzky was even less than that (roughly 1.6:1). They were great playmakers, but at the amateur level they also scored goals with the best of them.

Matt Barzal in his draft year had 12 goals and was almost 4:1 assist to goal ratio, and he's more than 8:1 this season. For his career he's over 3:1 with 55 goals and 163 assists and only 38 of those goals came at even strength - and this is a kid who plays near 30 minutes a game. Think about that - 38 goals in 174 games and people complain that we passed on him. People like to compare him to Nugent-Hopkins, but RNH could score. He had slightly over a 2:1 ratio with 57 goals and 120 assists, so he's right there on the edge of 2:1. And RNH scored those 57 goals all before he turned 18, where Barzal had 26 during the same time frame, and only 19 of those were non-power play. So I don't believe that his game will translate. It might translate to an international amateur tournament on the big ice, but I don't believe he will be wheeling and dealing on an NHL ice surface against NHL players like he does against 18 year olds in Seattle. He might I guess, but I don't think he will based on both my own viewings of him (over 100 games since bantam) and the analytic work that I've been doing for the past 6 years.

You never want to say a kid can't do something. It could be Barzal is a unique one-of-a-kind trailblazer that will make his own path and be the first WHL forward ever to carry an assist to goal ratio of greater than 2:1 to the NHL and have it translate. The only other guy I who had notably more than a 2:1 assist to goal ratio and played in the NHL from the WHL was Andrew Schneider, who had 108 goals and 258 assists. He played 10 pointless games in the NHL with Ottawa before heading overseas. He played in the World Juniors though. He did have an international game they figured. Anyways, I hope Barzal does it. He'll be a first and that would be exciting, but I don't think it will happen based on above.

That's what's special about McDavid. Like Oates and Gretzky, Crosby and Tavares, he does have that healthy assist ratio (1.5-2 range) but his goal scoring is also elite. Whereas Laine has the goals but he doesn't have the playmaking in his pocket like those guys did (the assists).

Laine vs McDavid is quite similar to Ovechkin vs Crosby. Laine and Ovechkin are better goal scorers (and could be predicted as such), but McDavid and Crosby are balanced elite players and better point producers (which also could easily be predicted as such).

Zac Senyshyn is a goal scorer. He's not Ovechkin or Laine but he's in that mold of high goals and low assists. He's not projected at their elite level but he could certainly turn out to be a high end producer. Certainly one of the best availabl this century at the draft position we got him at.

I just wanted them to trade those picks for top 9 pick. hope one of them can make it.

 

[reffree]

I think I'm the middle ground here. I think he'll be a solid 3rd-4th line regular at the NHL level. 10-20 goals 25-30 points per year type player. Don't think he'll bust, just think he's not going to be looked at as a great pick at 15. Average pick at 15.

That's what I think too and I can confirm you it's not seen as middle ground here

 

[reffree]

In my opinion, I think that assessment is hovering around bust territory. Although he's known to be a goal scorer, he currently has 6 fewer assists than goals (25gp 17g 11a 28p). I think his floor is something around being a smarter, faster, and more physical Reilly Smith (40-50pts). The Bruins have asked him to work on his two-way game, and by all accounts he has been working on it. In my opinion, if he's willing to fix the holes in his game and does, then I think he has a good chance of reaching his potential of being a quality top 6 RW.

Very very few prospect have a floor as a way better version(smarter, faster, grittier) than a proven top 6 foward. No hate on Senyshyn, I wouldn't even call Puljujarvi/Dubois/Tkachuk level prospects as having that high of a floor imho.

 

[Blowfish]

Here's my worry on Senny.

The one thing that stood out was he by far was one of the fastest and most opportunistic players with a wicked accurate shot however he was by far one of the least noticeable players doing anything else...He will get the Spooner treatment if he doesn't improve in other areas. This is probably why his assist production is so low however i did see some nice set ups.

I left the game thinking wow some really good 2 way players on that Soo team. Senny wasn't one of them. That's my BIG concern. I've watched him a few times now and to me he appears to be waiting for the puck to come to him versus wanting the puck. This is my guess why he didn't make the cut on team Canada.

This isn't a bash Senny it's just one's opinion from seeing him play a few times now...He will need to improve away from the puck before making any NHL team.

 

[Absurdity]

Very very few prospect have a floor as a way better version(smarter, faster, grittier) than a proven top 6 foward. No hate on Senyshyn, I wouldn't even call Puljujarvi/Dubois/Tkachuk level prospects as having that high of a floor imho.

I guess I shouldn't have used floor in my post. I just think he can end up becoming a Reilly Smith with more speed while using his body a bit more than Smith does. However, like I mentioned, I think he has the talent and tools to be more than that. The question is if he'll piece it all together or not.

Here's my worry on Senny.

The one thing that stood out was he by far was one of the fastest and most opportunistic players with a wicked accurate shot however he was by far one of the least noticeable players doing anything else...He will get the Spooner treatment if he doesn't improve in other areas. This is why his assist production is so low.

I left the game thinking wow some really good 2 way players on that Soo team. Senny wasn't one of them. That's my BIG concern. I've watched him a few times now and to me he appears to be waiting for the puck to come to him versus wanting the puck. This is my guess why he didn't make the cut on team Canada.

This isn't a bash Senny it's just one's opinion from seeing him play a few times now...

Thanks for chiming in. It's nice to hear from posters that have watched these prospects and share what they think. In my opinion, that is a very fair assessment and not a bash. The Bruins want him to work on other aspects of his game because Senyshyn runs the risk of becoming a one-dimensional winger that doesn't do much if he's not scoring. He needs to work on his defensive game, and it also sounds like he needs to be more assertive around the puck. Hopefully he develops and fixes both of those holes.

 

[DominicT]

I guess I shouldn't have used floor in my post. I just think he can end up becoming a Reilly Smith with more speed while using his body a bit more than Smith does. However, like I mentioned, I think he has the talent and tools to be more than that. The question is if he'll piece it all together or not.

Thanks for chiming in. It's nice to hear from posters that have watched these prospects and share what they think. In my opinion, that is a very fair assessment and not a bash. The Bruins want him to work on other aspects of his game because Senyshyn runs the risk of becoming a one-dimensional winger that doesn't do much if he's not scoring. He needs to work on his defensive game, and it also sounds like he needs to be more assertive around the puck. Hopefully he develops and fixes both of those holes.

Night and day difference from a year ago. Last season, Speers and Senyshyn's roles were offense and more offense because of the lack of depth with the Greyhounds. This season, (when Speers returns) they have so much depth, Coach Bannister is expanding their roles. They don't need to rely on their offence as much.

That said, if you watch Senyshyn's goals where he's flying down the wing, it's a set play they've used with him on the ice for a year and a half now. The play almost always starts in their own end on a 50-50 puck. Both defencemen attack that puck while the center goes to the weak side. Once they get possession, Senyshyn breaks the zone. The defenceman feeds the center who immediately feeds Senyshyn flying down the wing.

I've seen it a hundred times in a year and a half. And it's only done when he's on. Any other time, the Greyhounds play a zone defence and their d-men stick to their sides.

 

[ap3lovr]

Night and day difference from a year ago. Last season, Speers and Senyshyn's roles were offense and more offense because of the lack of depth with the Greyhounds. This season, (when Speers returns) they have so much depth, Coach Bannister is expanding their roles. They don't need to rely on their offence as much.

That said, if you watch Senyshyn's goals where he's flying down the wing, it's a set play they've used with him on the ice for a year and a half now. The play almost always starts in their own end on a 50-50 puck. Both defencemen attack that puck while the center goes to the weak side. Once they get possession, Senyshyn breaks the zone. The defenceman feeds the center who immediately feeds Senyshyn flying down the wing.

I've seen it a hundred times in a year and a half. And it's only done when he's on. Any other time, the Greyhounds play a zone defence and their d-men stick to their sides.

I actually have noticed the B's doing something very similar with Pasta. He will break the zone on that 50-50 puck, mainly because he has the speed to get back in the zone in time to cover his man.

 

[Sharp Shooting Neely]

Thought for a moment there was a chance that a little time would be being spent on a discussion with another pick(s) who was/are playing at the event.

Although comments were made on Lauzon's performance last night, it somehow quickly reverted back into a rehash of the seemingly endless debate on one player. It appears to simply keep going round and round and round. Respect the fact that every poster can and will have their own tightly held opinion and position on Zach as a pick. Should not be an issue for concern at all, even thought it's a very hot button topic that quickly can and does reignite passions. Some balance with discussion on others involved as well would be a welcome, even if it's only for a short period of time. Cheers!

 

[Bergyesque]

Thought for a moment there was a chance that a little time would be being spent on a discussion with another pick(s) who was/are playing at the event.

Although comments were made on Lauzon's performance last night, it somehow quickly reverted back into a rehash of the seemingly endless debate on one player. It appears to simply keep going round and round and round. Respect the fact that every poster can and will have their own tightly held opinion and position on Zach as a pick. Should not be an issue for concern at all, even thought it's a very hot button topic that quickly can and does reignite passions. Some balance with discussion on others involved as well would be a welcome, even if it's only for a short period of time. Cheers!

Here is something found at the end of an article on radio-canada, or SRC (the French CBC) about Lauzon's performance against Finland: http://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1006910/le-canada-malmene-la-finlande

Here is a rough translation:

On defence, Jérémy Lauzon for one stood out for his physical play. He brought the crowd to their feet when he stopped Aaro Vidgren on his tracks at the blue line in the second frame.
« Here, my role is to play a more defensive and physical game, said Lauzon. The coaches like the physical aspect of my game, and it’s partly why I’m part of the team. So you bet that I will keep it up throughout the tournament. »

 

[pierre gagnon*]

I went to the World Championship board on here and all the chatter was about Chabot and Myers. One person said Lauzon played strong. He was held in the #3 spot for best Canadian deemen. Here, I read that the commentator said he was the best deeman. At least he is not stuck in the 7th spot for now, behind Fabbro. Hopefully he makes into the regular rotation and shows them what he can do. Congrats to Charlie being named the Assistant captain. I hope McAvoy turns some heads with his play.

 

[reffree]

I went to the World Championship board on here and all the chatter was about Chabot and Myers. One person said Lauzon played strong. He was held in the #3 spot for best Canadian deemen. Here, I read that the commentator said he was the best deeman. At least he is not stuck in the 7th spot for now, behind Fabbro. Hopefully he makes into the regular rotation and shows them what he can do. Congrats to Charlie being named the Assistant captain. I hope McAvoy turns some heads with his play.

Lauzon was good, but obviously to a lesser extend than Chabot and Myers who had bigger role and are flashier. I'm happy to see it doesn't look like he'll be the #7 too. From what I saw I wouldn't be surprise if Bean became the 7th guy ... I have a hard time to understand the hype on this guy, seems so lost in his zone and his transition play is just average at this level imho.

 

[PlayMakers]

Hat tip to Fonzerelli for his posts the last couple pages.

They are too big to quote in full and too interesting to pull apart, but if you have the time, I highly recommend reading them.

 

[DKH]

Is that a black and white pic ?
How about some color guys.

McAvoy has the look of a multiple Norris Trophy winner.