Too much going to CGY in my opinion. I don't know anything about Jokipakka or Bouma TBH, so I'm assuming they have very little value (I don't know enough to comment otherwise). For retaining, I'm sure Leaf fans would be much more inclined to retain on JVR over Gardiner (1 less year of retention) which should work out fine for CGY still, but gives the Leafs an extra 2m in capspace in 2 years (a year they may make a decent UFA splash to help take their core to the next level).
Overall, there's just too much value going to CGY for it to make sense for Toronto when you add those picks, retention, and Carrick. I'm hoping we are in the playoffs after next year, but a key injury or two and that pick could turn out to be another great piece in addition to JVR & Gardiner.