Post-Game Talk: Bread Wings

[Machinehead]

There's no way that's legitimate. I don't know what the mistake is, but one was made. There's no way one site legitimately recorded an extra 2.35 xg for one team.

@duhmetreE said the Seider shot was 0.45. That means it has a 45% chance of being a goal. There's not a scoring chance on God's blue earth that goes in 45% of the time.

 

[McRanger92]

There's no way that's legitimate. I don't know what the mistake is, but one was made. There's no way one site legitimately recorded an extra 2.35 xg for one team.

@duhmetreE said the Seider shot was 0.45. That means it has a 45% chance of being a goal. There's not a scoring chance on God's blue earth that goes in 45% of the time.

Only against Georgiev

 

[bhamill]

I have to laugh at this, sorry. He had that spot on the top line and he blew it. It was GIVEN to him by Lavi and his administration. He can be a bust. It's ok. He's not your kid or anything.

Sure, he COULD be a bust, but a player scoring 40 points at 5v5 while being very good defensively is a very valuable one, and pretty far from a "bust" unless you're hung up on draft position. And we know he can do that because he did it already at 21-22 years old... He had a poor start this year and then got injured. It sucks, but it's kind of ridiculous to think he's not a valuable player.
I heard all the same "bust," "he is what he is," etc talk from loads of people about Laf, as recently as just weeks ago. Kakko will be a very good player in this league.

 

[80shockeywasbuns]

Sure, he COULD be a bust, but a player scoring 40 points at 5v5 while being very good defensively is a very valuable one, and pretty far from a "bust" unless you're hung up on draft position. And we know he can do that because he did it already at 21-22 years old... He had a poor start this year and then got injured. It sucks, but it's kind of ridiculous to think he's not a valuable player.
I heard all the same "bust," "he is what he is," etc talk from loads of people about Laf, as recently as just weeks ago. Kakko will be a very good player in this league.

When a young NYR player like Kakko isn’t producing but still goes extremely hard every shift, plays sound defensive hockey, and controls play overall, it doesn’t count and they suck and should be traded. But when a 4th line bum doesn’t produce and also gets caved every shift but occasionally sprawls out flopping around blocking shots they’re an essential winning player who needs to be praised at all costs

 

[duhmetreE]

There's no way that's legitimate. I don't know what the mistake is, but one was made. There's no way one site legitimately recorded an extra 2.35 xg for one team.

@duhmetreE said the Seider shot was 0.45. That means it has a 45% chance of being a goal. There's not a scoring chance on God's blue earth that goes in 45% of the time.

Decimal point in the wrong place possibly.

It was a quadruple screen … doubt they have the manpower to assess that for individual shots, even then it wouldn’t be 45.

 

[will1066]

Sure, he COULD be a bust, but a player scoring 40 points at 5v5 while being very good defensively is a very valuable one, and pretty far from a "bust" unless you're hung up on draft position. And we know he can do that because he did it already at 21-22 years old... He had a poor start this year and then got injured. It sucks, but it's kind of ridiculous to think he's not a valuable player.
I heard all the same "bust," "he is what he is," etc talk from loads of people about Laf, as recently as just weeks ago. Kakko will be a very good player in this league.

Yeah, I agree with you. I didn't say he IS a bust. 40 5v5 points the season before, that's great. But he badly regressed before getting hurt. Of course, I want him to not bust.

 

[mas0764]

I have to laugh at this, sorry. He had that spot on the top line and he blew it. It was GIVEN to him by Lavi and his administration. He can be a bust. It's ok. He's not your kid or anything.

Sounds an awful lot like what people were saying about Laf, like, 6 weeks ago.

 

[will1066]

When a young NYR player like Kakko isn’t producing but still goes extremely hard every shift, plays sound defensive hockey, and controls play overall, it doesn’t count and they suck and should be traded. But when a 4th line bum doesn’t produce and also gets caved every shift but occasionally sprawls out flopping around blocking shots they’re an essential winning player who needs to be praised at all costs

I know you hate Goodrow down to the core of your essence and fiber of your being, and oftentimes it's actually hilarious. If Goodrow appeared on local news as having saved an old lady crossing the street in front of a bus, and you were an eyewitness, you would have told the reporter interviewing you that he regularly gets caved in on his shifts, completely bypassing that he blocked the bus from crashing into the senior.

 

[mas0764]

I think lately with Kakko it wasn't about strength it's been about positioning and feel for the game. ONce things snowballed for that line and he was sent down he spiralled down the no confidence hole

... which is why it's a mental thing.

I'm no expert on the Xs and Os of hockey but I'd bet that he's slower to adapt to the ins and outs of the new scheme than Lafreniere has been and that's about 60% of the problem right now.

It may be over for Kakko ever being a real impact-like player, but trading him for a rental or even a 2-year player who is over 30 is a horrible idea if you can unlock 25-25-50 out of him, like an age 25-28 Chris Kreider with plus defense. You don't trade that for a third line player, you package it for a star maybe.

 

[will1066]

... which is why it's a mental thing.

I'm no expert on the Xs and Os of hockey but I'd bet that he's slower to adapt to the ins and outs of the new scheme than Lafreniere has been and that's about 60% of the problem right now.

It may be over for Kakko ever being a real impact-like player, but trading him for a rental or even a 2-year player who is over 30 is a horrible idea if you can unlock 25-25-50 out of him, like an age 25-28 Chris Kreider with plus defense. You don't trade that for a third line player, you package it for a star maybe.

Maybe if the Xs and Os were in Finnish...

 

[SnowblindNYR]

When a young NYR player like Kakko isn’t producing but still goes extremely hard every shift, plays sound defensive hockey, and controls play overall, it doesn’t count and they suck and should be traded. But when a 4th line bum doesn’t produce and also gets caved every shift but occasionally sprawls out flopping around blocking shots they’re an essential winning player who needs to be praised at all costs

Expectations for 4th liners and a player taken 2nd overall are very different.

 

[kovazub94]

I think the issue is that Lindgren's puck skills are too poor to play top 4 minutes at this point and that defensemen with his profile are much better suited for bottom pairs. I don't think anyone is arguing that Fox shouldn't play with a defensive defenseman, it's just that, what kind of rope can you give a player that is a complete negative in 2/3 zones? It definitely affects Fox's ability to play as well since Lindgren handling the puck is an automatic turnover and the Rangers like to cycle on the outside looking for lanes.

Think it's just a case of the game getting even faster and players getting a little left behind.

For whatever it's worth Lindgren's performance through 1/4 of this season has been lower than what he showed last season when he looked like a bona fide defensive top-4 D.

For me it's not that I'm anti-Lindgren, it's that I am concerned about his next contract. He will rightly point to his TOI and opportunities he is getting as Fox's partner to negotiate his next deal. With that being part of the discussion, I see him as a good bottom-pairing guy. I'm not enamored with paying him $3.5-4m per season

Hmm, I'd be delighted if the Rangers resigned Lindgren at this AAV on 4 (hopefully) year deal

 

[DanielBrassard]

When he is on his game is a very good possession forward who really owns the boards and is able to retrieve and recapture pucks. Sure he isn't lining up guys for big hits but he is difficult to play against for other teams because he uses his size well down low.

From what I remember according to the data hea actually doesn't grade our that highly in terms of puck retrievals or forechecking. And a lot of his possession is kept to the perimeter, he is below average in generating quality chances with his passing and his shooting. Someone posted the stats on his thread.

 

[Dfence033]

I just want to point out that I read the post game thread of the other team when we win every time and the Wings have the whinniest fans by far. Fans of other teams typically blame their own team for losses. Apparently the Wings are too good for that and it's the refs. Embarrassing.

To be fair to them: I'm speculating, but I think it's an educated speculation, that the average age of active users here is less than my wife's age - and she's a Detroit-born Red Wings fan.

Until the recent rebuild for the Red Wings when they missed the playoffs in 2017, she had not been alive in a season the Red Wings were NOT in the post season. We are in our 30s.

Spoiled bunch, certainly, but when you have that much success, entitlement usually follows (see: Penguins, Boston, Los Angeles, etc. in both hockey and other sports)

 

[NYR Viper]

There's no way that's legitimate. I don't know what the mistake is, but one was made. There's no way one site legitimately recorded an extra 2.35 xg for one team.

@duhmetreE said the Seider shot was 0.45. That means it has a 45% chance of being a goal. There's not a scoring chance on God's blue earth that goes in 45% of the time.

Jimmy Vesey's do when the game is tied

 

[kovazub94]

The moaning and groaning about wheeler is annoying.

We signed him for 800k, and he’s gonna get about 25 points at his current pace.

That’s fine.

Change his name to “generic player A” and nobody would care.

You'd get the same "moaning and groaning" for a generic $800k player if he was used as 1RW, i.e. it's not about Wheeler per se by how's he been utilized.

 

[egelband]

Gostisbehere is a veteran and played the puck lazily. It wasn't late and it wasn't boarding. Ghost bear just didnt protect himself and bounced his head off the glass. Matt Martin concussed Trouba that same way in 2021 and it wasnt even called a penalty.

I believe Trouba didn’t go down like he was shot. It definitely wasn’t a bad hit. I can see why it was called and don’t really mind the officials being protective there. But any outrage is misplaced.

 

[egelband]

I think I still move Trocheck down when chytil is ready. He’s cooled a bit I think the magic is bread and laf. Think Chytil would thrive there still.

Trocheck on a line with Cuylle just makes more sense to me in style than Cuylle and Chytil.

Considering how fragile Chytil is I don’t want him in the top six. I’d prefer as much stability as possible there. Not until he goes a solid year without getting hurt. Until then I’d leave him on the ‘third line’ with Cuylle and Vesey. They’re all pretty north-south anyhow so it’s a good fit.

 

[McRanger92]

I believe Trouba didn’t go down like he was shot. It definitely wasn’t a bad hit. I can see why it was called and don’t really mind the officials being protective there. But any outrage is misplaced.

Trouba couldn’t stand up after the hit from Martin

 

[egelband]

Also, winning last night was important because Predators in Nashville in the afternoon feels like an auto loss.

I agree. But…the extra day off in between might re-set things a bit.

Trouba couldn’t stand up after the hit from Martin

That rings a bell (no pun intended) now that you mention it. Either way, the Detroit guy stayed down and then once the penalty was called and the skirmish ended he power skated off just fine and dandy.

 

[egelband]

Miller should play first pair, Lindgren should play with Trouba.

I don’t want Trouba as the ‘offensive’ half of a D pairing.

 

[egelband]

You choose to not see Trouba's value besides percentage points on a chart. We can agree to disagree there because hes just not getting traded by this regime.

Yep. Probably 90% of GMs would give Trouba the deal he has if they could afford it. Maybe all of them. He brings a ton to the team. It may not always appear in the box score or the charts but he’s a game changing player.

 

[McRanger92]

Yep. Probably 90% of GMs would give Trouba the deal he has if they could afford it. Maybe all of them. He brings a ton to the team. It may not always appear in the box score or the charts but he’s a game changing player.

This is the fallacy I find in analytics. A public model saying Trouba is overpaid isn’t gospel because if he was a free agent this summer he’d be making more per year than he is now. GMs would be tripping over each other to give him a bag. That’s the reality

 

[egelband]

Ok. I still think Lindgren is more consistent defensively than Miller.

Yes. Miller makes more mistakes because he makes bad judgments on when to jump into the offense. And guys cycling get behind him. In the neutral zone he’s a beast. Lindgren in his own end against cycling is much much better. But overall I think miller brings more, especially these days when a lot of offense generation comes from the defensemen.

 

[egelband]

Miller/Fox is the stupidest thing we could do. Miller has a chance to be a great offensive defenseman. There's only one puck. You are wasting his potential putting him with Fox. Personally I would like to have either Fox or Miller on the ice 45-50 minutes a game. You can't do that if they are playing together

I wouldn’t change D pairs now. But in theory I’d like to try Miller-Fox, Gustafsson-Trouba, Lindgren-Schneider. I think that’s a great deployment. Fox could throw Miller post pattern bombs. Trouba stays minding the homestead with Gus carrying the puck. The bottom pair is limited offensively but Schneider is developing some puck carrying skills.