Player Discussion Brady Tkachuk (LW) - Part II

[Agent Zub]

Unequivocal YES!

While Brady's point totals are not bad, how are they not higher if he has elite hockey IQ? Instead he's basically keeping up with a guy like Connor Brown or a Batherson or a rookie Norris.

I would expect a player with that kind of hockey IQ to blow these players out of the water production wise.

 

[aragorn]

I'm sure BSP will correct me if I'm wrong, but my understanding is that the point you're addressing was meant in reference to Stone, not Tkachuk.

My mistake, sorry.

 

[aragorn]

While Brady's point totals are not bad, how are they not higher if he has elite hockey IQ? Instead he's basically keeping up with a guy like Connor Brown or a Batherson or a rookie Norris.

I would expect a player with that kind of hockey IQ to blow these players out of the water production wise.

BECAUSE IT'S NOT ALL ABOUT POINTS!. Your perception seems to be that only players that put up a lot of pts have a high hockey IQ & that is absolute nonsense. Not very many high scoring players over the yrs have turned into NHL coaches, why not if they have an elite hockey IQ, shouldn't they know the game better than anyone else?

Brady not only has led Ottawa in numerous categories, but he has led the league & IMO when you lead the league in anything that makes you elite in that category. Hockey isn't just about putting up pts although those that do make the most money, but that doesn't mean they have a high hockey IQ, it means they have a high offensive skillset. Duclair was an offensive player that Torts said he didn't think he new how to play the game.

A number of high scoring players normally have a high skillset which may or may not translate to hockey IQ, they could be very well coached as to where to go on the ice & when. I've seen Brady make plays & passes that surprised me that he even knw the guy was there & made the pass through several defenders reading a potential offensive play on net, IMO that's an elite hockey IQ, so is getting into the opposition's head & getting them off their game, making the right play at the right time. We see numerous great plays made because some players have the knack of seeing a potential play in their mind seconds before it happens which can be considered elite hockey IQ who are not goal scorers. Good defensive players it could be said have elite hockey IQ like Bergeron & ROR who also are good offensive players. Some goalies could have an elite hockey IQ it's not just the top scorers if it is some of them at all.

There are some players who are very good at a number of things who don't score as much who IMO have an elite hockey IQ like Pageau as an example who always seems to be in the right place at the right time. Mark Stone has an elite hockey IQ, L. Brown has elite vision & passing abilities, C. Brown makes the most of his opportunities with speed & a dogged determination to chase guys down which is a part of the game that few care about but can change the course of a game in seconds. IT'S NOT JUST ABOUT POINTS.

 

[PatrickEaves]

Well there is a difference between having a healthy skepticism or even being highly skeptical as opposed to having an absolute belief that that outcome will not happen and is essentially impossible. The way you have framed your statement and some of the other comments you have posted suggest that you are much closer to an absolute confidence than to a high skepticism in your belief.

In Tkachuk's first 3 seasons in the NHL he has produced the following points per game rates: Season 1: 0.6338, Season 2: 0.6197, Season 3: 0.6428. Over 82 games that projects to the following point production: Season 1: 51.97, Season 2: 50.82, Season 3: 52.71. Therefore he is already producing right around the range you think he will produce at and your projection he will only see a little more than a 10 point bump in production on average throughout the course of his career.

He is only turning 22 years old at the start of next season so he has constantly produced at a 50+ point pace, all before turning 22, in a rebuild, with inconsistent linemates and only part of one season with an established elite player (Stone).

Most players are only starting to crack the NHL around that point and plenty that have gone on to be solid point producers would not have been able to put up that kind of production at the same age. For example Daniel Alfredsson made his NHL debut in the 1995-1996 season. He is born December 11th, 1972 which would make him 25 years old. He went on to produce 61 points in 82 games that season. By the time Tkachuk is going into his season where he is also turning 25 he will have played 6 seasons in the NHL.

Continuing with the Alfredsson example it took him until the 1999-2000 season where he started consistently producing at the elite offensive level. At that point Alfredsson had played 4 seasons in the NHL and was turning 29 years old. When Tkachuk is turning the same age he will have played 10 seasons in the NHL.

The point here is that lots of high end point producers took a while before they started producing consistently at a high level. Many players that you might compare Tkachuk's upside against may have been a lot older before they even entered the NHL. It just seems bold to assume that he will have such minimal improvements in his game.

The aging curve of NHL players is a lot younger than most people think.

It's not exactly a certainty that Brady produces much more than he has already.

 

[Agent Zub]

BECAUSE IT'S NOT ALL ABOUT POINTS!. Your perception seems to be that only players that put up a lot of pts have a high hockey IQ & that is absolute nonsense. Not very many high scoring players over the yrs have turned into NHL coaches, why not if they have an elite hockey IQ, shouldn't they know the game better than anyone else?

Brady not only has led Ottawa in numerous categories, but he has led the league & IMO when you lead the league in anything that makes you elite in that category. Hockey isn't just about putting up pts although those that do make the most money, but that doesn't mean they have a high hockey IQ, it means they have a high offensive skillset. Duclair was an offensive player that Torts said he didn't think he new how to play the game.

A number of high scoring players normally have a high skillset which may or may not translate to hockey IQ, they could be very well coached as to where to go on the ice & when. I've seen Brady make plays & passes that surprised me that he even knw the guy was there & made the pass through several defenders reading a potential offensive play on net, IMO that's an elite hockey IQ, so is getting into the opposition's head & getting them off their game, making the right play at the right time. We see numerous great plays made because some players have the knack of seeing a potential play in their mind seconds before it happens which can be considered elite hockey IQ who are not goal scorers. Good defensive players it could be said have elite hockey IQ like Bergeron & ROR who also are good offensive players. Some goalies could have an elite hockey IQ it's not just the top scorers if it is some of them at all.

There are some players who are very good at a number of things who don't score as much who IMO have an elite hockey IQ like Pageau as an example who always seems to be in the right place at the right time. Mark Stone has an elite hockey IQ, L. Brown has elite vision & passing abilities, C. Brown makes the most of his opportunities with speed & a dogged determination to chase guys down which is a part of the game that few care about but can change the course of a game in seconds. IT'S NOT JUST ABOUT POINTS.

It's not just about points but for an offensive forward having elite IQ more than any other trait translates to high point totals. Hockey IQ is apparent in defensive play as well and if we're being honest Brady is a bad/low IQ defensive player.

Perhaps we just have different expectations for elite hockey IQ. To me it's the Stones, Alfredssons, Hossas, Karlssons. The Tkachuk's and JG Pageaus are smart by comparison but if they had elite IQ they would be closer to what the former were.

High IQ and coaching don't necessarily mix. To these guys it comes natural, hard to teach something when you never struggled at it.

 

[Masked]

The aging curve of NHL players is a lot younger than most people think.

It's not exactly a certainty that Brady produces much more than he has already.

It's a silly chart using silly stats and yet you've still come up with a conclusion that goes against the chart.

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

It's not just about points but for an offensive forward having elite IQ more than any other trait translates to high point totals. Hockey IQ is apparent in defensive play as well and if we're being honest Brady is a bad/low IQ defensive player.

Perhaps we just have different expectations for elite hockey IQ. To me it's the Stones, Alfredssons, Hossas, Karlssons. The Tkachuk's and JG Pageaus are smart by comparison but if they had elite IQ they would be closer to what the former were.

Mark Stone had average point totals during his first few seasons and never was even in the league at bradys age. This argument is bunk.

 

[topshelf15]

BT ,can crack the toughest of defenses...By punching the biggest one in the head,that alone tells you he will do anything to dominate the toughest areas to gain opportunities...He needs the players he plays with to just start shooting the puck towards the net more...

 

[Agent Zub]

Mark Stone had average point totals during his first few seasons and never was even in the league at bradys age. This argument is bunk.

??

Mark Stone dropped 64 points as a rookie off the 3rd line, was close to a PPG player in the AHL, had two 100 point seasons in the WHL.

Brady Tkachuk has never put up an elite offensive season in his career.

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

??

Mark Stone dropped 64 points as a rookie off the 3rd line, was close to a PPG player in the AHL, had two 100 point seasons in the WHL.

Brady Tkachuk has never put up an elite offensive season in his career.

Why are we talking about his previous leagues? I’m only discussing the nhl. Stone wasn’t in the nhl at the same age as Brady is now. It’s not a fair comparison. Brady would have put up a lot of points in the CHL or if he was in the ahl this past year. I’m so sick of this slander against tkachuk. He’s going to easily get 60-65 this year

 

[topshelf15]

Why are we talking about his previous leagues? I’m only discussing the nhl. Stone wasn’t in the nhl at the same age as Brady is now. It’s not a fair comparison. Brady would have put up a lot of points in the CHL or if he was in the ahl this past year. I’m so sick of this slander against tkachuk. He’s going to easily get 60-65 this year

He is going to punch deflect tip and snipe his way there ...Norris and Bath need to have at least 100 more shots than last season

 

[Agent Zub]

Why are we talking about his previous leagues? I’m only discussing the nhl. Stone wasn’t in the nhl at the same age as Brady is now. It’s not a fair comparison. Brady would have put up a lot of points in the CHL or if he was in the ahl this past year. I’m so sick of this slander against tkachuk. He’s going to easily get 60-65 this year

I think he can do that too, probably not easily but it's realistic depending on what guys like Norris and Stutzle do. We have nothing to disagree on.

Saying Brady doesn't have Mark Stone's hockey IQ isn't slander though.

 

[Ice-Tray]

??

Mark Stone dropped 64 points as a rookie off the 3rd line, was close to a PPG player in the AHL, had two 100 point seasons in the WHL.

Brady Tkachuk has never put up an elite offensive season in his career.

Lol Stone wasn’t in the NHL while Brady has been doing 20 goals 50 points, and you drone on about how grand his 64 points is?

Stone can’t even hold a candle to that Minny rookie, you see how many goals he scored in his rookie season?!?!

Too funny dude.

 

[Agent Zub]

Lol Stone wasn’t in the NHL while Brady has been doing 20 goals 50 points, and you drone on about how grand his 64 points is?

Stone can’t even hold a candle to that Minny rookie, you see how many goals he scored in his rookie season?!?!

Too funny dude.

My point was that Mark Stone was destroying his leagues at every point of his career. A mark of most players with high hockey IQ. ( obviously not a rule)

Also what Mark Stone did that year was special, we hadn't had a player like that since Alfie. His rookie season is one of the most impressive by a Senators forward of that decade.

And yea despite Stone being older in his rookie season, it was easily more impressive than any of Tkachuks 3 seasons. Mark Stone carried that forward core into the playoffs.

If Brady has the equivalents of Mark Stones rookie season, give him 9 or 10 million long-term and don't even think about it.

 

[JungleBeat]

Mark Stone had average point totals during his first few seasons and never was even in the league at bradys age. This argument is bunk.

Stone was a consistent ~ 65 point scorer in his first three seasons. Hopefully Tkachuk can reach those levels.

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

Lol Stone wasn’t in the NHL while Brady has been doing 20 goals 50 points, and you drone on about how grand his 64 points is?

Stone can’t even hold a candle to that Minny rookie, you see how many goals he scored in his rookie season?!?!

Too funny dude.

It’s better to just block the haters.

 

[Ice-Tray]

My point was that Mark Stone was destroying his leagues at every point of his career. A mark of most players with high hockey IQ. ( obviously not a rule)

Also what Mark Stone did that year was special, we hadn't had a player like that since Alfie. His rookie season is one of the most impressive by a Senators forward of that decade.

And yea despite Stone being older in his rookie season, it was easily more impressive than any of Tkachuks 3 seasons. Mark Stone carried that forward core into the playoffs.

If Brady has the equivalents of Mark Stones rookie season, give him 9 or 10 million long-term and don't even think about it.

Your point isn’t lost on me, it still doesn’t make it right.

We’ll see how well Brady does when he reaches Stones rookie age because comparing the accomplishments of a much older player in his rookie year to a freshly drafted rookie is far from authentic.

Also, Stone’s achievements in the AHL can’t be used either since Brady didn’t play in the AHL.

You could look at Batherson and Norris’s rookie seasons in the AHL, equal if not more impressive to Stone, and how their points translate to the NHL.

The last bit is that Stone and his 65 points in his much old first three seasons were on a MUCH more talented and mature Sens team.

There really isn’t much to compare between the two players at this point at all.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Stone has hit 73 points once, he is a 60 point player, and mostly the lower half. Unlike Jungle beats post he did not hit 65 points in his first three seasons EVEN ONCE, and he had a Brady rookie year level 54 points in his third season. He’s not a high scoring winger, he is a 60 point scoring winger with a boat load of intangibles. It’s the intangibles that make him special.

As for his AHL stats, Norris and Batherson both blow him out of the water, no question, and both have potential to score similar numbers in the NHL at least.

The legend of Mark Stone is tied to the man’s intangibles, not his scoring or point totals. We all love the him but let’s not pretend that Brady couldn’t be out scoring Stone regularly going forward as our team gets better and matures, 60 points in your prime isn’t exactly a high bar for a star winger.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Do you guys really think Brady has elite hockey IQ?

If he did so he'd have put a lot more point by now imo, and I would have been fine signing him to 8m contract.

He has very strong situational hockey IQ. Dude knows the area from the hashmarks to the blue paint as well as anyone. He also sees opportunities all over the ice where and when to throw bodychecks without losing position, and he has a good feel for his teammates and being able to read what his linemates are doing and being part of the play.

He doesn't appear to have that creative hockey IQ to actually start plays on his own like a legit creative playmaker.

But that's not a bad thing. He has a lot of adaptability and can play on multiple lines and with multiple roles. But he won't be an elite offensive force. And that's not what he's here for, either.

 

[Micklebot]

Tkachuk is awesome. I'm not sure he has elite hockey IQ like some are suggesting, but he's awesome and that's all I care about.

One thing I will say is that he doesn't really seem to have a lot of elite skills; he's not the best skater, he doesn't have the best shot, he's not threading needles with his passes, but he still manages to be in the thick of things all the time, and always involved in the play.

His anticipation is pretty good; he knows when to go to those dirty zones, when to crash the net for rebounds. He knows when to break out to make himself available for those outlet passes. All that said, he's 21. Most guys haven't really started their NHL career by that age.

 

[topshelf15]

Tkachuk with a crosscheck crackdown coming up......God help the Atlantic

 

[Sweatred]

Brady’s really strong on the puck - may be his best offensive skill. He can pull it off the boards and it’s nearly impossible to take it away from him. He’s so powerful through his arms.

 

[Beech]

Stone: May 13, 1992
at age 21 and 6 months, he started the 2012-2013 season. In the Minors for all but 4 games
at age 22, a combination of NHL and AHL in 2013-2014..minor productivity
at age 23, full time 2014-2015 season. 64 points in 80 games. 99 point season for the team, 238 GF, putting them in the top half. So good team mates
ages 24 outwards (in Ottawa) a rock solid point producer on teams that were progressively growing weaker.
ages 27-29, Vegas...rock solid, star point producer...crazy playoff collapse this year though!

Brady: Sept 16, 1999
age 19 and 20, nearly identical 45 and 44 point seasons in 71 games on very bad teams (less rookie year with Stone with him)
at age 21 he started the 2020-2021 season, projected numbers would have been 52 points in 82 games. Very poor team.

There is nothing here that tells us which player is a better point getter. Their careers are so different we cannot judge. Both are fan favorites. Both are leaders. Stone had EK to take the spotlight. Brady is on his own. Stone had better talent around him and did not assume the role of policeman. Brady probably flies the team charter and drives the team, bus.

So by the time Brady hits 23, the Sens should be significantly better and we can then compare.

 

[JungleBeat]

Brady’s really strong on the puck - may be his best offensive skill. He can pull it off the boards and it’s nearly impossible to take it away from him. He’s so powerful through his arms.

On the boards sure, but in the open ice he’s extremely easy to push off the puck. His skating/balance needs to improve.

 

[Sweatred]

On the boards sure, but in the open ice he’s extremely easy to push off the puck. His skating/balance needs to improve.

Sure - but he’s not the type player who needs to be carrying the puck between the blue lines -