Player Discussion Brady Tkachuk: Episode 4 - A new hope

[Sens of Anarchy]

This sounds like a winner to me, because imo it sticks it to that millennial that said the empire strikes back sucked, but do I retroactively rename the first thread and skip straight to Episode 2: The Dorion strikes back? Episode 2 was always the best episode.

Boooooooo.... I would vote against it... I mean if you want to build Dorion up and sugar coat his incompetence .. go for it... but he is not deserving.

 

[aragorn]

Tkachuky Fried Chicken
Tkachuky Cheese

I'm hungry .....

 

[BonkTastic]

This sounds like a winner to me, because imo it sticks it to that millennial that said the empire strikes back sucked, but do I retroactively rename the first thread and skip straight to Episode 2: The Dorion strikes back? Episode 2 was always the best episode.

Eh, the other Tkachuk threads are the prequels, as far as I'm concerned.

 

[Micklebot]

Great analysis and I agree on almost all points. I think you may have misinterpreted my statement in regards to your first edit though. I wasn't arguing Tkachuk is better than Hughes. What I was saying is that if you look at what the historical assessment of first overall picks are, Tkachuk's upside fits the average. The average number 1 pick has a 79.2% chance of being a top 6 f/top 4 d and has an average rating of 7.75. A rating of 8 is a top line forward/ top pairing d and a rating of 7 is a top six forward/top 4 d. Most people would likely agree that Tkachuk has something close to an 80% chance of being a top six forward and that his upside is likely somewhere between a first and 2nd liner. Therefore Tkachuk is as good as the average result of the number 1 overall pick. Given that Tkachuk is arguably as good as the average result of a number 1 overall pick it is hard to pass on him. Sure Hughes has more upside but once you get past Hughes the up;side and the confidence level drops off. So the question becomes if you have a chance at a player that has the upside equivalent to the average number 1 pick do you pass on them an expose yourself to the rick of a player who either doesn't have that upside or probability of attaining it for the chance to get a player with arguably higher upside?

Part of the issue is that you're assuming Tkachuk pans out. It's still early, I mean, 2 games... remember when Lee was going a top 4 dman and Cowen a partner for Karlsson?

A comparable would be to look at a team who has the 1st overall pick in the draft and ask whether they would trade that pick for the first round pick of another team in the upcoming season because the draft pool is deeper. in 2014 Florida could have traded the number 1 overall pick to Edmonton or Buffalo for their 1st round pick in 2015 in hopes of getting McDavid. In that scenario it might have worked out well for them because they could have ended up with McDavid or Eichel but normally speaking it isn't clear who the worst teams will be. Every year we could trade away our firs round pick in the draft if we know the following years draft will be deeper and hope we can predict who the worst team will be. It is risky but it compares to the Tkachuk situation where you give up something certain for something uncertain.

I don't think that's a good comparable to be honest, I'd perhaps compare an average draft to a strong draft; for example, would you trade one of Huberdeau (3rd) Larsson (4th) or Zibanejad (5th) in the 2011 draft for an unknown top 10 pick in the 2015 draft: Could be any of McDavid, Eichel, Strome (the not good one), Marner, Hannifan, Zacha, Provorov, Werinski, Meier, or Rantanen? There's a chance you downgrade, but the drop off isn't unmanageable, you still end up with a great player (unless you get Strome), but you also have a chance at some elite guys that are definitely (well, likely, I can dream that Tkachuk surpasses Eichel and McDavid... right?) better. In that scenario, an known choice in 2011 vs an unknown field in 2015's draft, I could be easily persuaded to take the risk (in this case, with the benefit of hindsight I guess).

The thing is, while the stats you quote are averages, we know that the next draft is much deeper at the top end, and this draft had a big drop after the top 2. I happen to be one of those who defended Tkachuk as an option before we picked him, but I could see the rationale behind preferring keeping the 2019 pick back then, and it's made even more appealing now that we know Hoffman and Karlsson are gone.

Anyways, I don't think it's a no brainer, but you don't get many chances at top 2 or 3 talent, so imo it's worth the risk. Now, the team may see Tkachuk as top 3 talent, so there is that too.

 

[Micklebot]

Boooooooo.... I would vote against it... I mean if you want to build Dorion up and sugar coat his incompetence .. go for it... but he is not deserving.

Pehaps we can start the thread with this:

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Pehaps we can start the thread with this:

Your call

 

[Micklebot]

Your call

We could go with Melnyk strikes back, idk.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Bro you gotta capitalize N and H

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

The only people who would argue that Tkachuk is a worse pick than the players available outside of the top few picks in 2019 are the people that are completely biased against Tkachuk and completely undervalue his actual upside.

I would add that the people who hate the owner and the GM are also Biased against the decision to draft Tkachuk.

These same people would have been against letting the Avalanche select 4th overall in the 2018 draft, if PD had decided to give them the pick, and retain next years' pick.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

Part of the issue is that you're assuming Tkachuk pans out. It's still early, I mean, 2 games... remember when Lee was going a top 4 dman and Cowen a partner for Karlsson?





I don't think that's a good comparable to be honest, I'd perhaps compare an average draft to a strong draft; for example, would you trade one of Huberdeau (3rd) Larsson (4th) or Zibanejad (5th) in the 2011 draft for an unknown top 10 pick in the 2015 draft: Could be any of McDavid, Eichel, Strome (the not good one), Marner, Hannifan, Zacha, Provorov, Werinski, Meier, or Rantanen? There's a chance you downgrade, but the drop off isn't unmanageable, you still end up with a great player (unless you get Strome), but you also have a chance at some elite guys that are definitely (well, likely, I can dream that Tkachuk surpasses Eichel and McDavid... right?) better. In that scenario, an known choice in 2011 vs an unknown field in 2015's draft, I could be easily persuaded to take the risk (in this case, with the benefit of hindsight I guess).

The thing is, while the stats you quote are averages, we know that the next draft is much deeper at the top end, and this draft had a big drop after the top 2. I happen to be one of those who defended Tkachuk as an option before we picked him, but I could see the rationale behind preferring keeping the 2019 pick back then, and it's made even more appealing now that we know Hoffman and Karlsson are gone.

Anyways, I don't think it's a no brainer, but you don't get many chances at top 2 or 3 talent, so imo it's worth the risk. Now, the team may see Tkachuk as top 3 talent, so there is that too.

I understand the rationale that some are offering but where I disagree with some is the certainty that they imply. There were good reasons for seriously considering giving up our pick this year so we could draft next year but there were meaningful risks to it. We wouldn't be guaranteed to get Hughes and the other prospects in the draft aren't guaranteed to be as good as some might suggest. Nail Yakupov looked like he was going to be a very solid NHL player but he didn't really pan out. Sure we don't know what Tkachuk will be exactly but he is a pretty solid pick. It is hard to pass up on a player that brings what he does to the table.

There was a risk to any decision that we made. If Tkachuk ends up as a 70+ point dominant power forward and we gave up the pick many would be pissed. If we gave up the pick and happened to pick a player that busts or fails to live up to the draft status many would be pissed. If Tkachuk doesn't end up better than the player we could have picked if we kept our pick for this season many will be pissed.

Tkachuk is a good player and he brings a lot to the table. I am very happy with the pick and some on here aren't. There wasn't necessarily an obvious choice to make but in the choice that we did make we have a player that could be a real fan favorite and may end up being a lot better than some have expected. Tkachuk did have 2 goals and 1 assist with with 6 shots on goal and 4 hits in only 13:45 off ice time in his 2nd NHL game. That is a lot of positives and suggests we have a really good player on our hands who has very underrated upside.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

Part of the issue is that you're assuming Tkachuk pans out.

Same thing can be said for anyone that is selected in the top 5 spots in next years draft.

 

[Micklebot]

Same thing can be said for anyone that is selected in the top 5 spots in next years draft.

Absolutely, no question there. Hopefully we made the right choice. My point though was that we can't act as though Brady has already panned out and treat the others as lottery tickets. There are a bunch of players in next years draft that are further along than Tkachuk was at the same stage, but that doesn't guarantee they'll surpass him, just like we can't guarantee that Brady will pan out as good as that one game was.

 

[BonkTastic]

... "Eposode 5"?


Bruh.

 

[Micklebot]

... "Eposode 5"?


Bruh.

crap... was leaning towards renaming the old thread then you posted the prequel line, and I changed my mind... had Episode 5 stuck in my head,

 

[The Expert]

Boston's greatest Brady

By far the best.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

This sounds like a winner to me, because imo it sticks it to that millennial that said the empire strikes back sucked, but do I retroactively rename the first thread and skip straight to Episode 5: The Dorion strikes back? Episode 5 was always the best episode.

edit: quick correction to my episode numbering

I said Return of the Jedi sucked. Empire Strikes Back is fantastic.

 

[devbouz12]

I said Return of the Jedi sucked. Empire Strikes Back is fantastic.

I thought Return was good.

Off topic but have you guys already been over the fact that Melnyk look like the Emperor?

 

[Micklebot]

I said Return of the Jedi sucked. Empire Strikes Back is fantastic.

My bad.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

Absolutely, no question there. Hopefully we made the right choice. My point though was that we can't act as though Brady has already panned out and treat the others as lottery tickets. There are a bunch of players in next years draft that are further along than Tkachuk was at the same stage, but that doesn't guarantee they'll surpass him, just like we can't guarantee that Brady will pan out as good as that one game was.

It still boils down to when PD is sitting at the draft table this past spring. He is ready to either select at fourth, or let the Avalanche have the selection .......... without knowing where the Senators will finish at the end of this season, and where the balls will fall in next springs draft lotteries ........... I know is sound corny, but it was the "bird in the hand" scenario .......... and the anti PD crew would be bashing him for not selecting (this spring) whomever the Avalanche selected ........ and pointing out that it's more than likley the Senators would be drafting in a worse position next spring ............no matter what he did, the anti PD crew would be against him.

 

[Tuna99]

It still boils down to when PD is sitting at the draft table this past spring. He is ready to either select at fourth, or let the Avalanche have the selection .......... without knowing where the Senators will finish at the end of this season, and where the balls will fall in next springs draft lotteries ........... I know is sound corny, but it was the "bird in the hand" scenario .......... and the anti PD crew would be bashing him for not selecting (this spring) whomever the Avalanche selected ........ and pointing out that it's more than likley the Senators would be drafting in a worse position next spring ............no matter what he did, the anti PD crew would be against him.

PD made a good selection in Brady, and a horrible trade in Duchene. Sending a non lottery protected 1st in one of the best draft years for a team with as many holes as Ottawa had, incredibly stupid

 

[Micklebot]

It still boils down to when PD is sitting at the draft table this past spring. He is ready to either select at fourth, or let the Avalanche have the selection .......... without knowing where the Senators will finish at the end of this season, and where the balls will fall in next springs draft lotteries ........... I know is sound corny, but it was the "bird in the hand" scenario .......... and the anti PD crew would be bashing him for not selecting (this spring) whomever the Avalanche selected ........ and pointing out that it's more than likley the Senators would be drafting in a worse position next spring ............no matter what he did, the anti PD crew would be against him.

So if the "anti Dorion crew" as you call them would have been against him no matter what, does that mean you'd have defended whatever move he made? The reality is most if not all who currently advocate for keeping the 2019 pick did so before the draft as well, they've been consistent with their position, so your claim that they would have been against him no matter what holds no weight.

We will see where the 2019 pick ends up in about 6 months a know whether the right decision was made or not, though if the still had their 2019 pick, they may have chosen to stack the deck a little more in their favour by trading of more vets.

 

[topshelf15]

Cant wait to see this kid once he has finished growing,he is going to be something

 

[InTkachukWeTrust]

If we trade duchene.... InChuckWeTrust

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

He's given us something we've never had. An absolute force infront of the net with soft hands around it and great skill in general.

I love this kid, exactly the type of player we've always needed. 2 of the goals tonight were cause of his ability to drive the net and cause havoc. Doughty tried to hit him and ended up falling on his own ass. Amazing.

 

[swiftwin]

Building great chemistry with Stone. Making lots of small passes to eachother. Both were +4 this afternoon.