Brad Treliving is doing a great job.

[Mess]

This is why I turn my nose up at a lot of analytics.

Their only use seems to be arguing about why losing isn’t bad.

Give me real stats any day over these voodoo magic “we lost but check out why that’s A GOOD THING!”

Ya get outta here with that garbage lol

I agree.

Pretend stats (expected) is all some have when trying to make a fake case argument not based on real actual facts and stats, and they feel the need to be sugar coating them to pretend something else is really going on behind the scenes.

If you lose a game because you scored less goals than the opposition, then pointing to Expected Goals (xG) as a metric in sports analytics that quantifies the quality of a shot attempt, or spouting HDSC (high danger scoring chances), doesn't do anything but provide feel good stats to explain away FAILURE.

When they say "Sports is a results oriented business", its based on verifiable stats and facts.

Leaf fans are hoping to win the "REAL" Stanley Cup , not an expected Stanley Cup in theory, while Leaf players are on the golf course already when the actual Cup is hoisted by the actual winners.

 

[Mess]

I'm not in love with Berube's coaching style. I still think I'd rather play Paul Maurice possession style.

I don't think we have the guys for dump and chase.

The one guy shining like a rocket star has a cart blanch from the coach to play however he wants, which I'll give him credit for. Why did Keefe treat the first line with kid gloves while Nylander got that was completely confusing.

I'm also a huge Paul Maurice fan myself.

"Never say never to a Paul Maurice coached team"

Berube will have his hands full, because the Cup champs are no joke. However if the Leafs do successfully advance he will be a big part and this might the hardest series by on competition and coach to win. IMO

 

[Rare Jewel]

The narrative? We can't win with 4 players making X! Get rid of them!
The result? Currently winning with those 4 players making the highest percentage of the cap that they ever have or will, and being largely carried by them. Heck, Berube is even still playing them in the same configuration y'all hated.

We're getting better outcomes for one very obvious reason. We're facing 0.866 goaltending overall, and 0.871 or worse in 7 out of 9 games. We've never had an issue winning in those circumstances. We were undefeated in the playoffs 2018-2023 when facing 0.871 goaltending or worse.

And who kept reminding people of the likelihood of eventually experiencing the other extreme of opposing goaltending, and the potential that existed if we did? Oh that's right... Me.

Well, before you dislocate your shoulder patting yourself on the back, it should be noted. It took 8 years and a very favourable 1st round match up for this to happen, and unlike '20 and '21, they didn't drop the ball.

Well done, it's about time, happy for everyone.

However, they still haven't accomplished enough to say, after all this time, that it was the right way to sign players or build a team. How could you, given how much time was lost?

And even by your own admission, they're getting some pretty favourable goaltending from the other side. So, what happens when Bob seals the net up, or even provides average goaltending?

 

[LaPlante94]

Actual results are an argument. But people aren't looking at the actual results of what they argued. People are taking one specific outcome (that we are only half of the equation for), caused by something unrelated to their argument, and then claiming "this is because of [insert thing I like]".

The narrative? We need more physicality and pushback!
The result? This is one of our least physical playoffs in recent history (despite also having the puck less), and suddenly nobody cares anymore. Fights? Zero. We watched our starting goalie get concussed and throw up on the bench, and Tkachuk try to take out the knees of one of our best players, and nobody did anything. Berube preached moving on and focusing on the series - a strategy that people used to go ballistic over.

The narrative? We need more size! Giants on defence will clear the net, not allow second opportunities, and prevent goals! Our new defensive coach and structure will make us hold leads!
The result? More rebound shots allowed from around the net, worse defensive results, and more goals against. Multiple blown multi-goal leads before we even hit 10 games.

The narrative? We can't win with 4 players making X! Get rid of them!
The result? Currently winning with those 4 players making the highest percentage of the cap that they ever have or will, and being largely carried by them. Heck, Berube is even still playing them in the same configuration y'all hated.

We're getting better outcomes for one very obvious reason. We're facing 0.866 goaltending overall, and 0.871 or worse in 7 out of 9 games. We've never had an issue winning in those circumstances. We were undefeated in the playoffs 2018-2023 when facing 0.871 goaltending or worse.

And who kept reminding people of the likelihood of eventually experiencing the other extreme of opposing goaltending, and the potential that existed if we did? Oh that's right... Me.

Analytics loved Knies. In fact, they're what showed a lot of Knies' non-production impacts.

Analytics didn't suggest any of that.

No the actual results people are seeing and using is wins. 6 playoff wins in 9 playoff games atm. When did we do that under the last duo that you claim was so good? You can try and gaslight people into thinking that is a simplistic argument and they lack any understanding of hockey when maybe it's the other way around. It's funny you say this too when these analytics people get so upset their analytical darlings don't get chances when they go to many different teams and always end up in the press box or AHL and eventually to Europe or Russia, but yeah, everyone else is wrong and we must trust those analytics.

Just because you and other analytical people assume physicality means more goons doesn't make that true, even though people have said many times that is not what they want when they say physicality. I do agree we still lack the right players for this system to be the most effective but they are making it work with what they got.

It's funny you say that we've become worse defensively and that these giants on defence needed to be replaced for some offence when we're scoring more in the playoffs, especially against Florida and those giant pylons have provided more offence than any d core the previous years have since it used to be just Rielly.

Top 2 guys have a combined 4 goals right now. Omg though, they are finally winning with these 4 when 2 of them are in their final year on their last deal. For a numbers guy 2 out of 6 years in out of the 1st round doesn't seem like a good percentage to support your case very well. Should go read your first few sentences because that sounds like you're describing yourself. Stop acting like they aren't supposed to be carrying when they take up almost 50% of the cap. That should be a given, but they should also have more success.

Oh so they found that traffic in front of the net can make it so goalies can't see the puck clearly which makes it harder to save. Analytics people really try to grasp at anything eh. "We're finding ways to score so the goalies have a lower save percentage so that's why they're getting better outcomes now". Like what? Obviously you're gonna have better outcomes if you can score. We can't score it's just a hot goalie in your eyes, we do score and it's because the goalies bad and not carrying. Ever think maybe the teams not as predictable anymore? Instead of overpassing looking for the perfect shot they shoot a low shot in the slot and look for a high tip and hope for the best. Those Marner point shots he takes on the PP must drive you nuts since they are such low quality shots to your analytics, yet they have led to many goals. Once you realize there's no such thing as a bad shot especially with traffic around the net maybe your life will become easier.

They didn't though. It's actually why I stopped following analytics people as closely, especially when it came to the draft.

They did. Y'all acted like Liljegren was a top 4 d man and was better than a majority of our d core atm. Went nuts when we never played him and then went nuts again when he was traded. This had nothing to do with analytics though right? Just your favourite player and you're upset? 2 coaches didn't trust him here yet y'all kept posting analytics to try and show why he's one of our best. Y'all kept posting Benoits xGF% and all that and said we need to find a replacement for him, preferably someone with more offence to their game. We've all seen it so don't say analytics didn't say this when y'all live and die by these analytics when it comes to evaluating players.

 

[IPS]

The opposing team's goaltender has a lower SV% and the star players are getting more goals/points against him.

Surely this has to fit together somehow, right?

 

[DarkKnight]

No the actual results people are seeing and using is wins. 6 playoff wins in 9 playoff games atm. When did we do that under the last duo that you claim was so good? You can try and gaslight people into thinking that is a simplistic argument and they lack any understanding of hockey when maybe it's the other way around. It's funny you say this too when these analytics people get so upset their analytical darlings don't get chances when they go to many different teams and always end up in the press box or AHL and eventually to Europe or Russia, but yeah, everyone else is wrong and we must trust those analytics.

Just because you and other analytical people assume physicality means more goons doesn't make that true, even though people have said many times that is not what they want when they say physicality. I do agree we still lack the right players for this system to be the most effective but they are making it work with what they got.

It's funny you say that we've become worse defensively and that these giants on defence needed to be replaced for some offence when we're scoring more in the playoffs, especially against Florida and those giant pylons have provided more offence than any d core the previous years have since it used to be just Rielly.

Top 2 guys have a combined 4 goals right now. Omg though, they are finally winning with these 4 when 2 of them are in their final year on their last deal. For a numbers guy 2 out of 6 years in out of the 1st round doesn't seem like a good percentage to support your case very well. Should go read your first few sentences because that sounds like you're describing yourself. Stop acting like they aren't supposed to be carrying when they take up almost 50% of the cap. That should be a given, but they should also have more success.

Oh so they found that traffic in front of the net can make it so goalies can't see the puck clearly which makes it harder to save. Analytics people really try to grasp at anything eh. "We're finding ways to score so the goalies have a lower save percentage so that's why they're getting better outcomes now". Like what? Obviously you're gonna have better outcomes if you can score. We can't score it's just a hot goalie in your eyes, we do score and it's because the goalies bad and not carrying. Ever think maybe the teams not as predictable anymore? Instead of overpassing looking for the perfect shot they shoot a low shot in the slot and look for a high tip and hope for the best. Those Marner point shots he takes on the PP must drive you nuts since they are such low quality shots to your analytics, yet they have led to many goals. Once you realize there's no such thing as a bad shot especially with traffic around the net maybe your life will become easier.

They didn't though. It's actually why I stopped following analytics people as closely, especially when it came to the draft.

They did. Y'all acted like Liljegren was a top 4 d man and was better than a majority of our d core atm. Went nuts when we never played him and then went nuts again when he was traded. This had nothing to do with analytics though right? Just your favourite player and you're upset? 2 coaches didn't trust him here yet y'all kept posting analytics to try and show why he's one of our best. Y'all kept posting Benoits xGF% and all that and said we need to find a replacement for him, preferably someone with more offence to their game. We've all seen it so don't say analytics didn't say this when y'all live and die by these analytics when it comes to evaluating players.

So we're getting better results with lower analytics and we got worse results with higher analytics. Instructive, maybe hockey is a theorem. These guys just can't show some pragmatism, their debates are dead, just take a knee and evolve.

 

[LaPlante94]

So we're getting better results with lower analytics and we got worse results with higher analytics. Instructive, maybe hockey is a theorem. These guys just can't show some pragmatism, their debates are dead, just take a knee and evolve.

I was all for analytics at first because I saw it worked in baseball. The problem is baseball and hockey are 2 completely different sports and hockey can be much more random and competitiveness matters more in hockey over baseball . Still not completely against analytics in hockey but they are clearly flawed somehow and should not be the main focus when people are trying to analyze players and what they bring to a team.

 

[Apex Predator]

I was all for analytics at first because I saw it worked in baseball. The problem is baseball and hockey are 2 completely different sports and hockey can be much more random and competitiveness matters more in hockey over baseball . Still not completely against analytics in hockey but they are clearly flawed somehow and should not be the main focus when people are trying to analyze players and what they bring to a team.

Baseball analytics work because it’s a controlled 1 on 1. (Pitcher vs batter)Hockey is a team sport with multiple players affecting the outcome.

 

[LaPlante94]

Baseball analytics work because it’s a controlled 1 on 1. (Pitcher vs batter)Hockey is a team sport with multiple players affecting the outcome.

Exactly

 

[sunstersun]

Brad deserves credit for trying to get Rant for Marner.

 

[DarkKnight]

I was all for analytics at first because I saw it worked in baseball. The problem is baseball and hockey are 2 completely different sports and hockey can be much more random and competitiveness matters more in hockey over baseball . Still not completely against analytics in hockey but they are clearly flawed somehow and should not be the main focus when people are trying to analyze players and what they bring to a team.

They have a place for sure. Baseball is a static, slow, stop and start sport, better suited for analytics.

 

[centipede2233]

Brad deserves credit for trying to get Rant for Marner.

And if things go south this round vs Florida, bye bye marner

 

[thewave]

Brad deserves credit for trying to get Rant for Marner.

You better believe it. If that doesnt leave a sour slimy taste in your mouth about Mitch Marners non performance when it gets tough, nothing will.

 

[notbias]

Brad deserves credit for trying to get Rant for Marner.

His #1 goal was re-signing Marner... Friedman said Rantanen only happened because Marner didn't want to sign in season.

 

[ACC1224]

His #1 goal was re-signing Marner... Friedman said Rantanen only happened because Marner didn't want to sign in season.

It's crazy that however many times it's been corrected, they still get it wrong.
Guessing it's on purpose, at least I hope it is.

 

[sxvnert]

His #1 goal was re-signing Marner... Friedman said Rantanen only happened because Marner didn't want to sign in season.

Low balling offers (from marners pov) to the Marner camp prove thats hes not a top priority.

 

[notbias]

Low balling offers (from marners pov) to the Marner camp prove thats hes not a top priority.

What was the offer?

Why would Friedman report something wrong when you know the right answer?

Have you tried calling him to tell him you should be a source?

 

[Mess]

Low balling offers (from marners pov) to the Marner camp prove thats hes not a top priority.

By low balling you mean potential offers that Treliving thought he was worth re-signing for.

Once Marner asked was too high (assumed by not taking a Leafs offer), he became expendable and thus Treliving jumped at the first chance to trade him 1-1 for Rantanen. This trade would have made Leafs a favourite for the Stanley Cup by adding the big powerforward. IMO

Can you imagine Auston Matthews centering a line of Matthew Knies and Mikko Rantanen?

The trade opportunity itself came out of left field, as I had hoped that Leafs would walk away from Marner, as a UFA and then use that $$$ to sign Rantanen instead for similar cap hit. My Dream scenario which had risks on the open market, that a direct trade would have eliminated.

I wonder to this day had the trade between Colorado (Rantanen original team) directly instead of Carolina, could BT have convinced Marner to waive his NMC to go play with MacKinnon?

 

[Mess]

You better believe it. If that doesnt leave a sour slimy taste in your mouth about Mitch Marners non performance when it gets tough, nothing will.

No matter how some try to sugar coat this, it really comes down to this.

Any GM that attempts to trade any player away in an accepted trade proposal by both sides and derailed simply by a player NMC refusal to waive, makes him expendable and NOT untouchable.

Treliving gets full credit for the attempt, and previous GM that signed Marner gets the blame for why this wonderful opportunity was squashed simply by a no-move-clause in a contract. That is the only reason Marner is still a Leaf today, and not because some believe Treliving wanted to keep him.

A GM will do what he believes is in the best interest of making the team he manages better. Therefore BT believes Rantanen >> Marner.

Which seems rather obvious to many without much need of debate simply look at the playoff results of both in their careers. Rantanen has +30 more playoff goals alone in comparison, and almost DOUBLE the points.

 

[notDatsyuk]

His #1 goal was re-signing Marner... Friedman said Rantanen only happened because Marner didn't want to sign in season.

The year before he said his priority was to sign Matthews and Nylander, and he did.

This year he didn't say the same about Marner or Tavares, and hasn't signed either.

If you want to blame Tre rather than Mitch who didn't want to sign that's your prerogative. I'd rather credit Tre for trying to do what's best for the team.

 

[notbias]

The year before he said his priority was to sign Matthews and Nylander, and he did.

This year he didn't say the same about Marner or Tavares, and hasn't signed either.

If you want to blame Tre rather than Mitch who didn't want to sign that's your prerogative. I'd rather credit Tre for trying to do what's best for the team.

I'm not blaming anyone, just stating that Treliving prefers Marner to Rantanen.

Weirdly, so many people are upset with this.

 

[notDatsyuk]

I'm not blaming anyone, just stating that Treliving prefers Marner to Rantanen.

Weirdly, so many people are upset with this.

If "Treliving prefers Marner to Rantanen" then why did he want to make the trade?

Weirdly, so many people are confused by this.

 

[notbias]

If "Treliving prefers Marner to Rantanen" then why did he want to make the trade?

Weirdly, so many people are confused by this.

Because Marner didn't agree to sign.

How is this so difficult for people to understand?

Logic, use it.

 

[authentic]

This is the best version of our team though.

It's not about the point totals is about the buy in.

The ONLY other time I've seen a team work this hard was the 2002 team who simply ran out of gas because they were gutted by injury.

But somehow a team with a 1st line of Gary Roberts- Alan McCauley and Jonas Hoglund made it to game 6 of the conference final.

This team is starting to remind me of that team except even healthy that team didn't have as much talent.

You can say other teams were better and I'm sure you will because of regular season point totals because that's all that matters to you.

But those teams all got rattled when games got tight, we saw it every year and if you watched the games so so did you although you will deny it.

This team so far doesn't get rattled.

There have been times when they could have, and would have in th past.

Games 2, 3 and 6 VS Ottawa, ESPECIALLY game 6

Game 2 VS Florida especially after Barkov scored.

But so far this team plays differntly they don't panic because their coach doesn't panic because he's seen it all, he's won.

Keefe did panic he doesn't have winning credibility.

I don't know how this playoffs ends.

But I know this team is on the right path.

Are we still sure about this?

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Are we still sure about this?

Last night was a bad night but that happens.

Regardless of how this playoffs ends I've been proven right.

It took Treliving less then 2 years and Berube less then a year to accomplish more then Dubas and Keefe did in 5.

Yes I'm still sure about this.

The team is on the right track.