Brad Treliving is doing a great job.

[Punch Drunk Loov]

We have a pretty mid version of Matthews and still are at an all time high. Credit to Tre

 

[1specter]

In other news, WTF is up with JT? He played so well down the stretch but he's struggling to produce in the playoffs, as usual. If there's one player who I'd be happy to see have a big game soon (tonight would be ideal), it's him.

I thought he was excellent in the Ottawa series for the most part. Games 1-4 I would go as far as saying he was our best overall player, but he's been quiet since. He had some good looks in game 6, but didn't convert. Against Florida he has been mostly invisible though.

 

[sunstersun]

Tavares being a dud makes what Willy and Patches are doing even more impressive.

 

[Mess]

View attachment 1032672

Live footage of Dubist’s reading this post…..

I'm still wondering why Fenway Sports has not fired him yet ??

He was brought into the Pens organization with a direct mandate to give Crosby and Malkin a few more runs at the Stanley Cup in their later years.

So he inherits a team that finishes just outside the playoffs with 91 points (missing them by a single point) and now after 2 years has delivered 2 embarrassing non playoff finishes including an 80 point finish in 2024-25 & below .500.

He fired his coach Sullivan recently to save his own ass, but its his own gross incompetence in understanding team building that should have been shown the door. IMO

How this snake oil salesman keeps fooling people into believing he has a clue about anything is what's most puzzling, because even when all his failures are pointed out as clear as day he still seems to charm some caught up his glare.

Mercifully, that's all behind us now as we have a real GM in Treliving and the results speak for themselves. While Leaf Nation now basks in the enjoyment of winning and team success like we haven't had in a long time.

 

[francis246]

I'm still wondering why Fenway Sports has not fired him yet ??

He was brought into the Pens organization with a direct mandate to give Crosby and Malkin a few more runs at the Stanley Cup in their later years.

So he inherits a team that finishes just outside the playoffs with 91 points (missing them by a single point) and now after 2 years has delivered 2 embarrassing non playoff finishes including an 80 point finish in 2024-25 & below .500.

View attachment 1032678

He fired his coach Sullivan recently to save his own ass, but its his own gross incompetence in understanding team building that should have been shown the door. IMO

View attachment 1032681
How this snake oil salesman keeps fooling people into believing he has a clue about anything is what's most puzzling, because even when all his failures are pointed out as clear as day he still seems to charm some caught up his glare.

Mercifully, that's all behind us now as we have a real GM in Treliving and the results speak for themselves.

Wasn’t the mandate to try to win while simultaneously putting the pens in a position to have success in the future? At least that’s what I remember from the press conference

 

[Nineteen67]

The thing is, you haven't proven me wrong. The bigger thing is that you really seem to need to prove me wrong.

First of all, when I say this team "seems" different to me, or that they are playing with more accountability you have not proven me wrong, because they still "seem" that way to me.

I also don't know that I have ever said that this is the best team of the era, but you seem to want to present a bunch of data that proves they are not.

My opinion and it remains the same is that this team seems different and perhaps more well positioned and built for the playoffs.

You can tell me all the reasons they are both but those are just your opinions also. Telling me they have had more points than the 108 they had this year is not proof that another team was better than this one. That could speak to dozens of factors, league parity being one of them, which I already mentioned. Five teams made the playoffs from our division. Maybe getting points off Montreal and Ottawa (and Detroit) wasn't as easy as it used to be?

However, it is a fact that they have never won an Atlantic division before this year. They had that as a start goal in the past. This team reached there goal.

It is another fact that Ottawa was one of the best teams in the East since January 1 and these Leafs beat them in six R1. Something a Leaf team has done in this era only once.

It is another fact that this Leaf team is up 2-0 in R2. Something no Leaf team has done in 37 years.

So, you can show me stats that support the position this team is no better than previous Leaf teams, but is it possible you are measuring only a subset of indicators with those stats? How do you measure calm? How do you measure the opponent feeling pressure to move the puck quickly? How do you measure counter punching quickly after the other team scores? Are you looking at the blocked shot and hit totals? There have been playoffs in the past where the advanced stats said we should have won a game or series that we didn't, maybe playoffs have a different recipe.

Anyway, when I share my perspective maybe you shouldn't try so hard to change that perspective. Another opinion I have is that you have painted yourself into such oro-Dubas corner that it seems to have taken away from your ability to enjoy a good run here.

A casual observer can see they are much better equipped to succeed than any previous year with this core. For the first time they won the division, they’re competitive in R2, they can rely on their D and goaltending.
I don’t care what the stats say, at no time in the recent past were they ever going to meet those goals.

If you watch the team on a daily basis you’d have a hard convincing yourself they’re not better.

 

[Nineteen67]

We have a pretty mid version of Matthews and still are at an all time high. Credit to Tre

It’s past time for him to empty the tank and carry the team into the ECF, even if it means he has sit out a few games in the next series to recover from whatever is hindering him.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

Tre is a stats guru….and all the advanced stats say you have to have size if you want to win playoff series and the size has to be able to play a little bit.
Every other year they had at least 6 holes/unknowns in the lineup, he recognized that, and filled them.

Dallas Eakins said that stats show 80% of the game in the defensive zone is played 3ft from the boards. If that stat doesn't make you realize that size matters in the playoffs I don't know what to say. Bigger is better when it comes to D...that's about it.

Dubas pouring through the analytics should have noticed this "Anomaly" and adjusted...and not just at the deadline when he would trade for Boosh and Schenn....he should have done it in the off season so we could have some reps and continuity as a team. So when the 2 fellas that love Dubas keep trotting out that he loved size...I say it was more an after-thought than a core principal of building the D. It was just an add on in the shopping cart...

 

[leafs in five]

speaks for itself really

 

[Nineteen67]

Dallas Eakins said that stats show 80% of the game in the defensive zone is played 3ft from the boards. If that stat doesn't make you realize that size matters in the playoffs I don't know what to say. Bigger is better when it comes to D...that's about it.

Dubas pouring through the analytics should have noticed this "Anomaly" and adjusted...and not just at the deadline when he would trade for Boosh and Schenn....he should have done it in the off season so we could have some reps and continuity as a team. So when the 2 fellas that love Dubas keep trotting out that he loved size...I say it was more an after-thought than a core principal of building the D. It was just an add on in the shopping cart...

Th size has to be able to play.

The only stat you need to evaluate Dubas’ tenor as Leafs GM is that he was failure. I give him props for trying, but the bottom line is his efforts failed. What he does going forward is irrelevant.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Tavares being a dud makes what Willy and Patches are doing even more impressive.

I don't think JT has been a 'dud' lately.

Just because you aren't picking up assists it doesn't mean you aren't contributing, just as picking up assists doesn't necessarily mean you are contributing a lot.

That's the trouble with just looking at numbers. For example, player A passes to player B behind their own net, then player B carries the puck the length of the ice and feeds player C for a tip-in. Both players get an assist. Another example is player A steals the puck, and shoots, it bounces off player B to player C who scores. Both players get an assist.

All assists aren't evidence of equal effort. Primary assists tend to be more so than secondary, but it's not cut and dried.

It happens with goals too, but not to the same extent.

 

[notbias]

Says the guy using plus minus stats to measure performance on a spreadsheet an 8 year old could've created.

What about those shorthanded goals I asked about? I see you conveniently dodged that question. Who was on the ice for those again?

That os your PK goal differential... a lot of depth players, I skim your posts, I don't read them, not even sure what you're referring to with shorthanded goals.

Yes I know, Nylander has 6 and the rest 7, did you not read my previous post? And you're questioning my math skills? Thanks for proving our depth is contributing though, 8 goals from outside the core 4, not including the ones from our depth defensemen, OEL and Benoit. So what's that 11 from our depth players now?

So 11 for who you consider depth, and 17 for who you don't consider depth?

Depth should be doing more than that...

Outstanding!

Since you love spreadsheets so much, why don't you create one comparing goals scored with the player's current salary. I would love to see that, wouldn't you?

Not really, that is stupid, only an idiot would think to do that.

Goals have a greater worth than assists, anyone with an IQ above double digits knows this.

Player A has 50 goals and 0 assists

Player B has 50 assists and 0 goals.

Any NHL GM would rather have player A all day, every day over Player B.

McDavid has 2 goals so far, tell me he is not helping his team much, please.

Which GMs are taking Nylander over him?

You're the one discounting their success because they are "riding shotgun with the best players", I'm saying they're contributing just as much both physically and on the scoreboard. Who do you think does most of the forechecking on their respective lines?

BTW- Knies has the most goals on his line.

Patches has two goals both scored while playing on the bottom 6.

Knies has 0 goals without an assist by at least one of Marner/Matthews.

Line changes =/= playing in the bottom six...

This would mean that every time Marner and Knies change and Lorentz and Jankrok come out, Matthews is playing in the bottom six, this is another dumb idea.

 

[notbias]

Dallas Eakins said that stats show 80% of the game in the defensive zone is played 3ft from the boards. If that stat doesn't make you realize that size matters in the playoffs I don't know what to say. Bigger is better when it comes to D...that's about it.

Except for Colorado, who had the best record in the last 10 years...

Dubas pouring through the analytics should have noticed this "Anomaly" and adjusted...and not just at the deadline when he would trade for Boosh and Schenn....he should have done it in the off season so we could have some reps and continuity as a team. So when the 2 fellas that love Dubas keep trotting out that he loved size...I say it was more an after-thought than a core principal of building the D. It was just an add on in the shopping cart...

The D is not that big...

vs

vs

vs

vs

vs

Which D is your favourite based on size?

You also may want to look into how much Dubas actually used analytics and which teams use them the most...

 

[Thornbury]

Tavares being a dud makes what Willy and Patches are doing even more impressive.

Hmm, I was under the impression he had three goals and two assists in eight playoff games. Guess I was mistaken.

 

[BrannigansLaw]

Because every time your opinion has been proven wrong in our discussions, you've deferred to feelings and opinions that agree with you to continue with the same opinion. What else am I supposed to think? If somebody forms opinions off of feelings, and they will ignore fact if they can find somebody that agrees with them, that's a recipe for a misinformation bubble that can never be pierced. In fact, we've discussed pretty much all of the below points before, and we're back discussing them all again... it honestly feels like you just won't accept the answer that doesn't mesh with your opinion.

Look. I think it's good that you try to look at the present in the brightest light possible. Use that to be positive and optimistic. But when people misrepresent that light to cast shade on a past they choose not to understand, and attack anyone who doesn't join in, that's where it starts to get toxic and obsessive. Don't turn into one of them.

Yeah that is the point. So when we're comparing outcomes, that's some pretty big context that's being left out, no? We have never been unsuccessful in the playoffs facing goaltending this bad. Achieving something that is easier is great, but it doesn't automatically make a team better than one that didn't achieve something that was harder.

Which leads us into this example. Yes, this team did something that it hasn't done before - win the Atlantic division. But that's for two main reasons:

1. When we won our division a few years ago, it wasn't the Atlantic division. (Though yes, it happened, and trying to ignore it because it wasn't the Atlantic is what is disingenuous)
2. Because the point total needed to win the Atlantic this year was at an all-time low.
Since it was created in its current form, points needed to win:
2013/14: 118 points
2014/15: 111 points
2015/16: 104 points
2016/17: 104 points
2017/18: 114 points
2018/19: 129 points
2019/20: 117 points
2021/22: 123 points
2022/23: 136 points
2023/24: 111 points
2024/25: 103 points

That's why we won the division; not because this is the best version of our team. Acknowledging the relative difficulty of something isn't putting an asterisk on it. If anything, this is more about how insanely strong our division has been throughout pretty much our entire competitive phase until now.

Ok, so it sounds like we finally agree that it was goaltending, so there's progress. Now is that a bad thing? No, not necessarily. Good goaltending is very important. I have always said as such. Goalies have more impact on a game than any other player by far (which makes attempts to deny their impact on playoff outcomes even more ridiculous).

What makes people nervous is that goaltending is also inherently very variable, and the level they were performing at in that stretch was wildly unsustainable. The fact that you dismiss Campbell and Samsonov is itself proof of that variability, because both of those goalies delivered strong seasons for us, and even some strong playoff moments. Samsonov, for example, stole us our series-winning game 6 in 2023. But you remember them negatively because the good stretches were followed by a bad stretch.

And the reason for that concern has been on full display for us this playoffs. That strong goaltending that we had throughout the regular season has evaporated in the playoffs so far. We've seen a number of the weak goals that we've seen in the past, and actually worse goaltending overall than we've had before.

But also, there is a fundamental issue with your argument anyway, because a team is not well represented by its best stretch. That's not really what they are. They are all of their stretches combined, good and bad. And in our last discussion about this, I already showed you that how teams finished the season didn't even really have any correlation with winning the cup.

We are different, to some extent, but we are not better. That's not the end of the world. We are still a good team with potential to win, and we have patched many of the holes that were opened up in 2023/24. But being "bigger" doesn't have anything to do with being better. This wasn't our best regular season performance. And it hasn't really been our best playoff performance. We're getting better playoff outcomes because we're facing easier situations. But some people seem to be incapable of understanding any nuance or context. They refuse to believe anything other than good thing happen in playoffs = everything associated with the team is awesome, bad thing happen in playoffs = everything associated with the team sucks. But that's not how hockey works. Hockey is not a single player game. Outcomes are not just about our team. The number of people on this site with such a black and white surface level understanding of hockey is just... baffling. Critical thinking skills have really gone downhill...

LOL "nuance and context"

You've been using that bullshit to excuse Dumbass' failure teams for years now. Just give it up. You're wrong and you've always been wrong. You clearly don't understand the game very well.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

Except for Colorado, who had the best record in the last 10 years...



The D is not that big...

View attachment 1032774 vs View attachment 1032776 vs View attachment 1032778 vs View attachment 1032780 vs View attachment 1032784 vs View attachment 1032785

Which D is your favourite based on size?

You also may want to look into how much Dubas actually used analytics and which teams use them the most...

I think if you're trying to say that a D core with Dermott, Sandin and Lilly were not smaller than average...I don't know what to tell you. You keep bringing up the Avs D as if they won 4 cups in those 10yrs....they won 1 cup. Why not compare Tampa's D size? They won 2 cups and went to the finals 2 other times over the last 10yrs. I don't remember seeing a small D when they were winning cups in TB.

 

[Dekes For Days]

What you provided isn't evidence and if you read my post thoroughly you'd know why.

I read your post thoroughly. I provided evidence. You just don't like being wrong. I gave you exactly what you asked for, and then you dismissed it. And it's really hypocritical. You complain about the validity of listed weights, but your entire argument is listed weights. You complain about using listed weights from a few months before and after the playoffs, but you're trying to use a weight from literally years after that playoffs. Somehow, explaining to you why small weight fluctuations like that would be normal given his circumstances is "conspiracy theory nonsense". Meanwhile, you're creating this entire narrative about how his development progressed based on nothing but random assumptions, and you refuse to consider any other possibility.

The only one that has provided evidence from that timeframe is me. Everything you've provided is years removed.

Probably not considering the team we played had the fewest goals per game of any team in the first round and continued that pattern all the way to the finals. Not a hard thing to accomplish against at team lacking in offense.

Mhm, that sounds like context about what we faced. We're not allowed that, remember? But hey, I'll entertain you.

Montreal was 21st in 5v5 scoring that year at 2.27 goals/60.
Ottawa was 28th in 5v5 scoring that year at 2.12 goals/60.
So Ottawa was actually a worse 5v5 scoring team.

Also, both of the other teams Montreal faced on their way to the finals (Winnipeg and Vegas) did a worse job against them preventing 5v5 goals.

I noticed as per usual you cherry picked one stat and ignored the other two, why was that?

As usual, I didn't cherry pick anything. I used the only stat provided that was about defensive results. The only other thing there was stuff about playstyle. If I was really choosing, I wouldn't be using a combination defense/goaltending stat to talk about defense, but I'm trying to work with the posted graphic here.

Btw, how many rounds did that defense win anyway?

That's certainly a weird deflection to something that has nothing to do with the discussion.

 

[Apex Predator]

You guys should stop replying with them. No matter what logic and argument you use they will twist or use some stat against it. The leafs can win the cup and they will still go on about how the other teams were better and the expected stats said the leafs won the cup those years.

 

[notbias]

I think if you're trying to say that a D core with Dermott, Sandin and Lilly were smaller than average...I don't know what to tell you. You keep bringing up the Avs D as if they won 4 cups in those 10yrs....they won 1 cup. Why not compare Tampa's D size? They won 2 cups and went to the finals 2 other times over the last 10yrs. I don't remember seeing a small D when they were winning cups in TB.

Use Pittsburgh's team, they won more Cups and had an undersized D.

Also, why not compare all the teams I showed you and tell me which ones you think were the best teams?

Ignore the Colorado team, the rest are all Toronto, and the current D is not the biggest.

You guys should stop replying with them. No matter what logic and argument you use they will twist or use some stat against it. The leafs can win the cup and they will still go on about how the other teams were better and the expected stats said the leafs won the cup those years.

There is no logic being used... And not everyone is a coward and needs a safe space.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

I agree that "not pulling their weight" is too harsh but I would also note that most of these points came in the first 4 games against Ottawa. There are no more Ottawa's in our near future and so far in round 2, M&M&JT combined have only 3 points between them. Those first few games against Ottawa ensure that the overall numbers will look good for some time but if we keep playing and these guys don't start producing, eventually the overall numbers won't look so good either. That said, I'd suggest not paying too much attention to these stats until the playoffs are done. It's all about the team, we're winning, why not just leave it at that?

In other news, WTF is up with JT? He played so well down the stretch but he's struggling to produce in the playoffs, as usual. If there's one player who I'd be happy to see have a big game soon (tonight would be ideal), it's him.

That I would agree with he's struggled the last couple games for sure

Having JT have night where he leads them to a win with say a goal and 2 assists would be nice. especially if say 2 of those 3 points could come on the PP.

Get that PP going again.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The 2021 playoffs was a disaster, that’s an open and shut case.
The 2021 Leafs played in a 7 team house league without any interaction with the rest of the league playing in a shortened season. So I don’t think anyone is going to concede that point to you on 5 on 5 defense, etc etc.

Dramatics aside, the 2021 playoffs was a disappointing outcome, but the 2021 Leaf team was far from a disaster. It was one of the best teams this franchise has put together in half a century.

Also, the stats being discussed are not from the regular season. They are from the playoffs featuring all 16 teams; the same as this year.

Rielly, Dermott, Muzzin, Brodie, Sandin all LHD with Bogosian and Holl on RHD? It was just so poorly constructed with no attention to body types and roles.

You do realize that we're currently playing with the exact same number of RHD, right..? The only difference is that the 2021 defense also featured a LHD who played on the right side long before he got to us, and did it well. It wasn't poorly constructed. It had a good mixture of body types and roles, and that's why it got good results.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

Except for Colorado, who had the best record in the last 10 years...



The D is not that big...

View attachment 1032774 vs View attachment 1032776 vs View attachment 1032778 vs View attachment 1032780 vs View attachment 1032784 vs View attachment 1032785

Which D is your favourite based on size?

You also may want to look into how much Dubas actually used analytics and which teams use them the most...

I honestly don't understand why you and Dekes are so hell bent on saying that THIS team- the one that has had some success- is not a better team than the many iterations of Dubas' teams. This team has already had more success than either Lou's or Dubas teams and yet we are still looking backwards saying that the plan that Dubas had would have worked had we given it more time.

I am just flabbergasted at why you guys are so married to what didn't work before. Even the division title this year is prefaced by saying we won it with the lowest points of anyone to win it lately. Could that be because Ottawa, Montreal and Detroit are not complete tire fires like they were in the years that Tampa and FLA won it? Could it be that the extra easy points were not there for the taking? (Not that the Leafs ever took advantage of that by having crappy records against bottom feeders) I am sure in a few years time when Boston and Tampa -maybe even the Leafs- are at the bottom of the division...the title will be won with more easy points.

This is almost like when Communists argue that Marxism is a great idea that was implemented incorrectly and that's why it never worked...not because the idea is not good...the implementation is what we got wrong.

 

[notbias]

I honestly don't understand why you and Dekes are so hell bent on saying that THIS team- the one that has had some success- is not a better team than the many iterations of Dubas' teams. This team has already had more success than either Lou's or Dubas teams and yet we are still looking backwards saying that the plan that Dubas had would have worked had we given it more time.

Never said which team is better, just pointing out that the argument we suddenly have bigger D is wrong.

I don't know why everyone gets upset when they say something wrong and are corrected.

I am just flabbergasted at why you guys are so married to what didn't work before. Even the division title this year is prefaced by saying we won it with the lowest points of anyone to win it lately. Could that be because Ottawa, Montreal and Detroit are not complete tire fires like they were in the years that Tampa and FLA won it? Could it be that the extra easy points were not there for the taking? (Not that the Leafs ever took advantage of that by having crappy records against bottom feeders) I am sure in a few years time when Boston and Tampa -maybe even the Leafs- are at the bottom of the division...the title will be won with more easy points.

This is almost like when Communists argue that Marxism is a great idea that was implemented incorrectly and that's why it never worked...not because the idea is not good...the implementation is what we got wrong.

This is what changing the subject looks like when you know your original comment is wrong.

A lot of words when you could have just said "You are right, the D we have now are not any bigger than years past".

 

[Stephen]

Wasn’t the mandate to try to win while simultaneously putting the pens in a position to have success in the future? At least that’s what I remember from the press conference

It’s interesting to compare and contrast the retool on the fly mandates and how they were implemented in Washington and Pittsburgh. Both teams had between 103 and 100 points in 2022. Washington went in the toilet a little earlier but rebounded in 2024-25 and are still in the playoffs while Pittsburgh completely bottomed out this year.

When I say interesting I mean look at yet another example where Dubas didn’t get the job done.

 

[Stephen]

Dramatics aside, the 2021 playoffs was a disappointing outcome, but the 2021 Leaf team was far from a disaster. It was one of the best teams this franchise has put together in half a century.

Also, the stats being discussed are not from the regular season. They are from the playoffs featuring all 16 teams; the same as this year.

You do realize that we're currently playing with the exact same number of RHD, right..? The only difference is that the 2021 defense also featured a LHD who played on the right side long before he got to us, and did it well. It wasn't poorly constructed. It had a good mixture of body types and roles, and that's why it got good results.

We’ve won double the playoff games as in 2021. How were there good results in 2021?