Brad Treliving is doing a great job.

[TMLBlueandWhite]

Division champions for the first time in a quarter century and only the second time in EIGHTY-SEVEN (87) years.

That’s irrefutable evidence, my friend.

And no, being “division champions” for half a season in a half-assed realigned division doesn’t count.

This only proves the other teams ahead of them got worse and the fact the Leafs had a lower points percentage this year than all but Keefe's last season here proves that much.

 

[Donnie740]

This only proves the other teams ahead of them got worse and the fact the Leafs had a lower points percentage this year than all but Keefe's last season here proves that much.

Toronto Maple Leafs - - Atlantic Division Champions 2024-25

Facts are facts, my friend.

 

[DarkKnight]

The world looks flat from where I stand too.

What a horrible attempt to be clever.

 

[DarkKnight]

Toronto Maple Leafs - - Atlantic Division Champions 2024-25

Facts are facts, my friend.

You could argue the teams below are better too, the division was pretty spirited. Also, our record against the west was 19-10-3, so....These guys have been shitting on Tre since he got here, the narratives keep changing, but hey facts. Imagine where we'd be with Same Lafferty for example. Mockery is easier, why bother when it's so obvious the bias.

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

What a horrible attempt to be clever.

Yup... it's a beautiful flat earth...

 

[Mentat]

Toronto Maple Leafs - - Atlantic Division Champions 2024-25

Facts are facts, my friend.

This franchise does not hang division or conference banners. Any season that ends cupless is a failure.
We´ve been failing for 67 years now.

 

[conFABulator]

This only proves the other teams ahead of them got worse and the fact the Leafs had a lower points percentage this year than all but Keefe's last season here proves that much.

Keefe wasn't fired because of his regular season record though. I believe his regular season winning percentage was one of the best in NHL history.

The issue, of course was a team with such a track record of success not being able to win in the playoffs.

You could also argue that even with those points they could not win a division which could have led to more playoff success. As you point out this could have had more to do with how well Boston, Tampa and Florida did every year.

So, this year they won the division and got Ottawa in R1. They also SEEM to be more well suited for playoff hockey. Winning in Round 1 and even losing in a hard fought R2 would accomplish more than Keefe ever did, factually.

Of course, the game plan should be to dispatch of Ottawa in less than 7 games with health in tact and then face and beat a team that just squeaked through a heated battle of Florida

 

[Dekes For Days]

If you read carefully, I said "use the stats to inform". Nowhere did I say that advanced stats should be ignored.

You didn't say the data should be ignored, but that's exactly what you're doing. You have continued to double down on unsupported claims that are contrary to every piece of objective evidence, based solely on your vibes.

You continue to ignore what I and others have been saying. This team is playing a different style of game that doesn't always look good on the spreadsheet. You look solely at that spreadsheet and conclude that this team is worse than other years, that this team is not better prepared for these playoffs, that there aren't other factors just as important as expected goals for, against, etc leading to success for a team.

I haven't ignored anything you've said, and I haven't only looked at a spreadsheet. I watch the games, and I see what happens. Then I look at the data, and it confirms what happened, and further informs. If you're seeing things that aren't true, you should learn how to improve your eye test, not ignore the facts. There are more things than expected goals that determine the success of a team, which is why I looked at a lot more than just expected goals, and why I still believe we have a chance this year, despite dropping into the negatives.

As for the lazy narrative that we just can't get good data with this style of play, and we're secretly better in some unexplainable way that isn't visible in our gameplay or any surface or underlying data is a bunch of BS. If the style of play was effective, it would produce good data. Florida, for example, had no trouble putting up the 2nd best xGF% in the league last year.

We all make subjective opinions.

We do all have subjective opinions. Which is why it's important to look at the objective evidence. When you, for example, claim that we are better at preventing rebounds, and yet we give up more rebounds, that is not your subjective opinion against my subjective opinion. That is your subjective opinion against objective fact.

I've stated many facts about this team that you have continually glossed over or minimized to fit your agenda.

You haven't stated any facts about the team. You have attacked and dismissed the facts. You have made and doubled down on disproven claims. You have used a lot of subjective fluff words like "maturity" and "compete" to say nothing at all. But no facts.

 

[Evilhomer]

I'm not sure this debate will end after these playoffs simply because most debates never end here, but I don't think anyone will be criticizing Treliving after this run.

 

[CabanaBoy5]

You didn't say the data should be ignored, but that's exactly what you're doing. You have continued to double down on unsupported claims that are contrary to every piece of objective evidence, based solely on your vibes.

I haven't ignored anything you've said, and I haven't only looked at a spreadsheet. I watch the games, and I see what happens. Then I look at the data, and it confirms what happened, and further informs. If you're seeing things that aren't true, you should learn how to improve your eye test, not ignore the facts. There are more things than expected goals that determine the success of a team, which is why I looked at a lot more than just expected goals, and why I still believe we have a chance this year, despite dropping into the negatives.

As for the lazy narrative that we just can't get good data with this style of play, and we're secretly better in some unexplainable way that isn't visible in our gameplay or any surface or underlying data is a bunch of BS. If the style of play was effective, it would produce good data. Florida, for example, had no trouble putting up the 2nd best xGF% in the league last year.

We do all have subjective opinions. Which is why it's important to look at the objective evidence. When you, for example, claim that we are better at preventing rebounds, and yet we give up more rebounds, that is not your subjective opinion against my subjective opinion. That is your subjective opinion against objective fact.

You haven't stated any facts about the team. You have attacked and dismissed the facts. You have made and doubled down on disproven claims. You have used a lot of subjective fluff words like "maturity" and "compete" to say nothing at all. But no facts.

I haven't stated facts? Wrong again. Selective reading and comprehension on your part.

FACT
Toronto finished first in their division despite being in a division with recent Stanley Cup winners 3 out of the last 5 years. Top 4 in points in the NHL

FACT
The team is playing a different style unlike the one that was unsuccessful the past 8 years.

FACT
The team was 9-1 in the last 10 games, 19-8 since Four Nations. 1.50 GAA in the last 10 games

FACT
Team is no. 2 in shots blocked in the last 20 games. No. 22 in defensive zone giveaways.

Which of these facts do you deny? I'm not going to go into subjective opinions on whether Berube is a great coach, or his system is better, but in my opinion he is and it is. Those are hard to measure by advanced stats.

As for rebounds, they are 32nd in goals given up from rebounds in the last 20 games. Their defence clearing the front of the net plays a big part in that. They are 26th in high danger shots against in the last 20. The defence has been very good.

 

[DarkKnight]

This is perhaps the first year we don't have to change how we play to adapt to playoff hockey. That speaks volumes.

Okay back to undermining success...

 

[Dekes For Days]

FACT
Toronto finished first in their division despite being in a division with recent Stanley Cup winners 3 out of the last 5 years. Top 4 in points in the NHL

FACT
The team is playing a different style unlike the one that was unsuccessful the past 8 years.

FACT
The team was 9-1 in the last 10 games, 19-8 since Four Nations. 1.50 GAA in the last 10 games

These aren't really the claims that are the issue.

We did finish 1st in our division and top 4 in points in the NHL. That's very good! It is also a fact that we have done both of those things before. It is also a fact that accomplishing those things this year was easier than accomplishing the same in past years. The same record in 2021/22 would rank us 3rd in the division and 9th in the league. In 2022/23, we would rank 2nd in the division and 7th in the league. In 2023/24, we would rank 3rd in the division and 8th in the league.

We have shifted our style somewhat. It is however not a fact that we played our prior style for 8 years, or that our prior style was unsuccessful, or that our current style is inherently more successful, or that our current style has been better for us. Keefe's style was different than Babcock's, and our play under Keefe was quite successful. We didn't get the playoff outcomes we wanted, but there is no evidence of that being caused by our playstyle, and quite frankly, we generally had our worst outcomes when we were shifting more towards our current style of play. Our play within this style this year hasn't been great, and historically, there is no one style that is better than the others.

The team did indeed have a good record through the final 10 games. It is also a fact that it was driven primarily by the best goaltending in the league over that stretch. There is also no real evidence that how you finished the season holds any special importance.

The last 5 cup winners finished...

2023-2024: 6-3-1
2022-2023: 6-1-3
2021-2022: 4-5-1
2020-2021: 6-3-1
2019-2020: 3-6-1

I'm not going to go into subjective opinions on whether Berube is a great coach, or his system is better, but in my opinion he is and it is. Those are hard to measure by advanced stats.

It's not that hard. You just don't like the answer.

As for rebounds, they are 32nd in goals given up from rebounds in the last 20 games. Their defence clearing the front of the net plays a big part in that. They are 26th in high danger shots against in the last 20. The defence has been very good.

I believe you were looking at only 5v5 or 10 games. Over the past 20 games, we are actually in a 5 way tie for 27th in rebound goals... because our goalies have put up a 0.947 SV% on rebound shots alone over that stretch. The issue is your attempts to utilize a combination defense/goaltending stat to credit defense for something that is clearly attributable to goaltending.

When we look at the part of rebound goals that the defence is responsible for - allowing rebound shots - we see that they have actually allowed the 4th most rebound shots in the league over that stretch. We weren't clearing the net front. We allowed rebound shots and our goalie saved them. We allowed 6 rebounds shots and 2 rebound goals in game 1.

We allowed the 14th most high danger shots over the last 20 games, and had the 24th best defensive results overall. Not good.

 

[Apex Predator]

For years I kept hearing that people wanted to see the leafs fail becuase they don’t like Dubas and Keefe. Now those same people seem to be doing the same towards Tre and Berube. I don’t get the weird obsession of being fans of GM/coaches over the team.

Both previous and current regime has made mistakes. At this point they have the exact same succees. If you are a leaf fan you better be hoping this regime does better than the last. If you are not hoping for that please go to one of the below links and leave leaf fans alone.

Pittsburgh Penguins

forums.hfboards.com

New Jersey Devils

forums.hfboards.com

 

[Dekes For Days]

For years I kept hearing that people wanted to see the leafs fail becuase they don’t like Dubas and Keefe. Now those same people seem to be doing the same towards Tre and Berube. I don’t get the weird obsession of being fans of GM/coaches over the team.

Nobody is a fan of GMs/coaches over a team. Nobody wants to see Treliving or Berube fail. We all want to see this team win the cup, no matter who is in charge or behind the bench. The issue is, some of us actually want to discuss this team, what has happened, and how we're performing, and some just want to ignore what's actually happened, and conclude that everything is better based on nothing but vibes and who they personally like.

 

[Donnie740]

Nobody is a fan of GMs/coaches over a team. Nobody wants to see Treliving or Berube fail. We all want to see this team win the cup, no matter who is in charge or behind the bench. The issue is, some of us actually want to discuss this team, what has happened, and how we're performing, and some just want to ignore what's actually happened, and conclude that everything is better based on nothing but vibes and who they personally like.

If the Leafs were to win the Cup this year - - the Stanley Cup, not the Corsi Cup - - would you finally acknowledge that Treliving and Berube are vastly superior to Kyle Dumbass and Bozo The Keefe?

Or will you continue to grasp at cherry picked statistics to try and discredit their accomplishments?

 

[colchar]

If the Leafs were to win the Cup this year - - the Stanley Cup, not the Corsi Cup - - would you finally acknowledge that Treliving and Berube are vastly superior to Kyle Dumbass and Bozo The Keefe?

Or will you continue to grasp at cherry picked statistics to try and discredit their accomplishments?

That was a rhetorical question right?

We all know that if they were to win the Cup in a seven game series, instead of being out there celebrating with the rest of us he would be calling in to sports talk radio proclaiming that they should have won in six games, that they really aren't that good because their expected goals for/against %^*$ is lower than his spreadsheet tells him it should be, and he would be pontificating that their win will be forever tainted because of that, all while pulling his goalie and staring lovingly at the poster of Kyle 'Spreadsheet' Dumbass on his bedroom wall.

 

[IPS]

The world looks flat from where I stand too.

TMLBlueandWhite and Dekes for days - now that's a duo I never expected.

 

[IPS]

That was a rhetorical question right?

We all know that if they were to win the Cup in a seven game series, instead of being out there celebrating with the rest of us he would be calling in to sports talk radio proclaiming that they should have won in six games, that they really aren't that good because their expected goals for/against %^*$ is lower than his spreadsheet tells him it should be, and he would be pontificating that their win will be forever tainted because of that, all while pulling his goalie and staring lovingly at the poster of Kyle 'Spreadsheet' Dumbass on his bedroom wall.

Of course it's rhetorical. When we lost to Boston last year he Dubie crew wasn't interested at all in the injuries to Matthews/Nylander (they'd have LOVED to use these excuses for the Dubie years) and instead went full peanut gallery on Tre/Domi/Bertuzzi/Edmundson and how they lost us the series.

Zero self awareness at all, they really do think we can't all see just how blatantly transparent it is.

 

[IPS]

If the Leafs were to win the Cup this year - - the Stanley Cup, not the Corsi Cup - - would you finally acknowledge that Treliving and Berube are vastly superior to Kyle Dumbass and Bozo The Keefe?

Or will you continue to grasp at cherry picked statistics to try and discredit their accomplishments?

No, there's just absolutely zero conceivable way that maybe Tre and Berube understand playoff hockey better than Dubie/Keefe.

Better to just peddle your stats like a religious extremist even when it's not lining up with reality even remotely accurately.

 

[CabanaBoy5]

These aren't really the claims that are the issue.

We did finish 1st in our division and top 4 in points in the NHL. That's very good! It is also a fact that we have done both of those things before. It is also a fact that accomplishing those things this year was easier than accomplishing the same in past years. The same record in 2021/22 would rank us 3rd in the division and 9th in the league. In 2022/23, we would rank 2nd in the division and 7th in the league. In 2023/24, we would rank 3rd in the division and 8th in the league.

We have shifted our style somewhat. It is however not a fact that we played our prior style for 8 years, or that our prior style was unsuccessful, or that our current style is inherently more successful, or that our current style has been better for us. Keefe's style was different than Babcock's, and our play under Keefe was quite successful. We didn't get the playoff outcomes we wanted, but there is no evidence of that being caused by our playstyle, and quite frankly, we generally had our worst outcomes when we were shifting more towards our current style of play. Our play within this style this year hasn't been great, and historically, there is no one style that is better than the others.

The team did indeed have a good record through the final 10 games. It is also a fact that it was driven primarily by the best goaltending in the league over that stretch. There is also no real evidence that how you finished the season holds any special importance.

The last 5 cup winners finished...

2023-2024: 6-3-1
2022-2023: 6-1-3
2021-2022: 4-5-1
2020-2021: 6-3-1
2019-2020: 3-6-1

It's not that hard. You just don't like the answer.

I believe you were looking at only 5v5 or 10 games. Over the past 20 games, we are actually in a 5 way tie for 27th in rebound goals... because our goalies have put up a 0.947 SV% on rebound shots alone over that stretch. The issue is your attempts to utilize a combination defense/goaltending stat to credit defense for something that is clearly attributable to goaltending.

When we look at the part of rebound goals that the defence is responsible for - allowing rebound shots - we see that they have actually allowed the 4th most rebound shots in the league over that stretch. We weren't clearing the net front. We allowed rebound shots and our goalie saved them. We allowed 6 rebounds shots and 2 rebound goals in game 1.

We allowed the 14th most high danger shots over the last 20 games, and had the 24th best defensive results overall. Not good.

Tbh, I'm enjoying this discussion as frustrating as it can be at times lol. I also agree with what others and you have said about Keefe being successful during the regular season and Dubas making some great moves (e.g. McCabe, Muzzin). Also, the stats you present are not wrong.

The problem is your perception of the team and what these stats mean in assessing the success of the team. As someone stated earlier, you have a tendency of cherry-picking and spinning these stats at times. For example, you said we've finished 1st before. However, we have never finished first in the Atlantic division. The only other time was finishing first in the Canadian division during covid (an asterisk is probably warranted for that).

You also state there is no evidence that Berube's change in style is any more successful than in the past. It's been successful in the regular season and yet to be determined if it will be in the playoffs. A lot depends on your definition of success. For many, success is winning more than one round. It's a fact that in the past, the systems used by Babcock and Keefe were not ultimately successful.

Having a successful regular is important to the development of a team that will be prepared for the playoffs. This is where Dubas and Keefe have failed. Too many changes at the deadline, not enough time to build a team ready for the playoff grind. They were too focused on having great advanced and individual stats. Treliving has shown that he knows what gives us the greater chance of winning more than a playoff round. He's built a defence ready for the playoff grind, regardless of what your advanced stats say. I know you worry about the sustainability of winning based on the stats your presenting. I say that the stats don't tell you all that you need to know to win.

Regardless, this team imo is poised to win more than they have in the past. You can disagree, and that's ok, just don't constantly piss on everybody's parade who are excited that this team is playing a style that may lead us to reaching our goal.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

This only proves the other teams ahead of them got worse and the fact the Leafs had a lower points percentage this year than all but Keefe's last season here proves that much.

If other teams around them got worse that's a good thing.

I don't Really care how they win just that they do.

 

[Dekes For Days]

If the Leafs were to win the Cup this year - - the Stanley Cup, not the Corsi Cup - - would you finally acknowledge that Treliving and Berube are vastly superior to Kyle Dumbass and Bozo The Keefe? Or will you continue to grasp at cherry picked statistics to try and discredit their accomplishments?

I haven't cherry picked any statistics, or discredited any accomplishments. Using these ridiculous nicknames really just shows everybody that you're incapable of being objective.

Winning a cup would be a great accomplishment (and would certainly be a big positive for Treliving and Berube), and I would celebrate it every step of the way, but there's more to how a GM or coach performed than just their team's playoff outcome, and how it would reflect on Treliving/Berube comes down more to how and why we win in this hypothetical than the simple fact we did.

TMLBlueandWhite and Dekes for days - now that's a duo I never expected.

I disagree with him about most things, but unlike you, I am able to acknowledge when somebody I don't particularly like says something that is true.

When we lost to Boston last year he Dubie crew wasn't interested at all in the injuries to Matthews/Nylander

That is, of course, not true. That just wasn't the only issue last year. I have always acknowledged the impact of injuries. It is you that flip flopped on their impact and importance.

Better to just peddle your stats like a religious extremist even when it's not lining up with reality even remotely accurately.

The stats line up with reality quite well. That's a weird comparison for you to make, considering my conclusions are evidence-based, while yours are just hope and blind faith.

 

[1specter]

Taking away the accomplishment of finishing first in a competitive division because the raw point totals weren't as good as previous seasons and saying it was 'easier' is comical. That's not how it works - it was arguably harder if anything because there was less separation between the top and the bottom this year with more parity, and less opportunities to pick up easy points against shit teams. Detroit, Montreal, Ottawa were far more competitive this time around. The Bruins fell off, but they were also right in the mix until close to the trade deadline where they decided to torpedo the season and sell off their team.

In 2022, half the division finished with 75 pts or less, this season no team in the Atlantic finished with less than 76 pts and only two teams had below 80 pts.

 

[notbias]

Taking away the accomplishment of finishing first in a competitive division because the raw point totals weren't as good as previous seasons and saying it was 'easier' is comical. That's not how it works - it was arguably harder if anything because there was less separation between the top and the bottom this year with more parity, and less opportunities to pick up easy points against shit teams. Detroit, Montreal, Ottawa were far more competitive this time around. The Bruins fell off, but they were also right in the mix until close to the trade deadline where they decided to torpedo the season and sell off their team.

In 2022, half the division finished with 75 pts or less, this season no team in the Atlantic finished with less than 76 pts and only two teams had below 80 pts.

Is getting fewer points somehow harder?

Weird spin.

Finishing first should be applauded, but for argument sake, you think having to get 136 points to beat Boston 2 years ago or 123 points 3 years ago to beat Florida is somehow easier?

 

[notbias]

No, there's just absolutely zero conceivable way that maybe Tre and Berube understand playoff hockey better than Dubie/Keefe.

Better to just peddle your stats like a religious extremist even when it's not lining up with reality even remotely accurately.

Can you explain how Treliving does, for people who make fun of Keefe/Dubas for playoff success, Treliving has exactly the same amount.