Brad Treliving is doing a great job.

[notbias]

I checked:

Stanley Cup Champions

2019 St. Louis 42 RW
2020 Tampa 41 RW (covid shortened season 35 RW in 70 games)
2021 Tampa 42 RW (covid shortened season 29 RW in 56 games)
2022 Colorado 46 RW
2023 Vegas 38 RW
2024 Florida 42 RW

More often than not, our RW this year corresponds to the eventual Stanley Cup Champions. If it's not a relevant stat for us (no 3 on 3 in playoffs) then it wasn't for the Cup Champs. No need for you to have mentioned it in the first place, just like the rest of those obscure advanced stats that may or may not have an impact on the success of our team.

So we are below all but one of the cup winners... that is terrible.

And the cup winner that is below brought back Stone for game one...

We are doomed by your assessment, damn.

 

[authentic]

I made this thread August 9th 2023 and I certainly didn't expect 291 pages and nearly 7300 responses.

I gave him a pass last year, I think most of us did because he didn't come in until 5 weeks before the draft, there wasn't really a opportunity to truly put his stamp on the team.

While a significant portion of this roster is still Dubas.

Treliving has his coaching staff.

At least half the defense is his.

Hall the goaltending tandem is his.

Now we will see if I was right.

This is the year we can start to truly judge him.

So far so good, 52 wins this year, 1st in the Atlantic,I actually think I predicted 52 wins in a thread I made before the season started.

Regardless Now they need to get by Ottawa

More Treliving players than Dubas now

 

[authentic]

So we are below all but one of the cup winners... that is terrible.

And the cup winner that is below brought back Stone for game one...

We are doomed by your assessment, damn.

Not like we needed this assessment to know it’s a long, long long shot we win the Cup

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

More Treliving players than Dubas now

mean I did that now is the time we can start to judge him.

Like I said I felt like last year he deserved a pass because he came in so late.

Now he's had his chance to put his stamp on the team.

Now we can start to judge him.

We can't fully judge him until he's moved on but he no longer gets a pass.

 

[DarkKnight]

As far as the eye test goes, they seem to get outplayed quite often and rely on really good goaltending. I would assume the “advanced stats” would back that up as well. If you keep letting up shots like they do, eventually bounces happen.

They have benefited from a very weak Eastern conference. They have to take advantage of it.

Leafs were 19-10-3 against the Western Conference.

 

[CabanaBoy5]

So we are below all but one of the cup winners... that is terrible.

And the cup winner that is below brought back Stone for game one...

We are doomed by your assessment, damn.

Now you’re just being petty. Three had only ONE more RW, one had less, one had the same, and one had more. Hardly reasons for feeling doomed.

Interesting that the one team that had more is the one that plays a significantly different style than ours. St Louis, Vegas, and Florida played more structured, dump and chase, physical game like the one we’re trying to implement for the playoffs.

 

[Aashir]

I basically disagree with everything... but I am wondering if anyone actually knows what being "outcoached" means... your team outplaying the other team and running into a hot goalie does not mean you were outcoached, and that was the Montreal series.

Matthews' line outscored the Danault line 3-1, the Nylander line outscored their opposition 3-2, no other line scored.

You can dislike xGF% but it is just chances, and Matthews' line had a 67% xGF, which is amazing.

Out of all the lines that played 60 minutes together in the playoffs, guess who was #1 for xGF%.

Danault did nothing.

Expected stats are coaching stats, and I'd love to hear how they aren't if anyone thinks they aren't.

Coaches don't dictate where players shoot or the saves goalies make, they are running systems to get their shooters the best quality shots and limit the quality of the other team, that is xGF%.

Your team running into a hot goalie and your coach doing nothing to adjust to that is bad coaching

Always running into hot goaltending could also be a sign of a system that gets shut down come playoff time that is bad coaching

Having bad special teams is literally bad coaching

 

[notbias]

Your team running into a hot goalie and your coach doing nothing to adjust to that is bad coaching

Always running into hot goaltending could also be a sign of a system that gets shut down come playoff time that is bad coaching

What coaching changes do you make for players getting stopped on open looks from the slot?

Look for lower quality shots?

I don't even know how it is a debate that we've run into some goaltenders who beat our shooters, that is not a coaching issue.

Having bad special teams is literally bad coaching

There are coaches designated to that.

Haven't looked at the numbers yet, but if there were getting good looks, that is also not a coaching issue.

 

[GoonieFace]

Leafs were 19-10-3 against the Western Conference.

It doesn’t change the fact that the Eastern Conference is as weak as it’s been in years. They play Eastern Conference teams in the playoffs until the cup final.

 

[Dekes For Days]

It does take time to learn and buy into a system that involves playing better defensively. After that period of adjustment, that's exactly what we’ve been doing since the Four Nations and particularly the last 10 games.

It doesn't take that much time. When we switched to Keefe, we were instantly better defensively, and without the training camp or preseason that Berube got. When the NYI, for example, switched from an all offense coach to a hard-core defensive structure coach, they went from 2nd worst in the league defensively one season to 3rd best in the league the next. When you have a good system, it works pretty fast.

And it wouldn't be that bad if it did just take time and we were getting good defensive results now, but as much as we both wish it weren't true, we're not even doing that. We're getting bad and increasingly worse defensive results. I can excuse it getting worse recently since it is a sample where we lost our two best defensive defensemen for a stretch, but there has been a systemic issue the whole year.

If the advanced metrics are telling you that the Leafs are not better defensively or playing with more structure conducive to success in the playoffs, then those stats should be taken with a grain of salt. Virtually all the former players, coaches, managers (people who know the game from the inside) that I've listened to these past few days, say the Leafs are playing a brand of hockey that can lead to more success in the playoffs. Yet, you continue to spew stats that show the contrary, like that is some kind of determining, all-encompassing factor in the success of a team. To say it’s only the goaltending is disingenuous to the rest of the team.

No. You can't just ignore facts for your feelings. If every single basic and advanced stat and possible measure is telling you that we're not doing very well defensively and the goaltending is carrying us, then it's time to accept that, acknowledge the inherent human biases that cloud your "eye test", and reevaluate the blind trust you put in media personalities on the TV trying to sell you a good story.

Objectively, we are not doing better defensively. 2020-2023, we were good defensively at 5v5 and on the PK. Last year, we were bad defensively at 5v5 and on the PK. This year, we went back to 2020-2023 levels at 5v5, but it was countered by our PK getting increasingly worse. Improving our 5v5 defense also cost us our 5v5 offense this time. This isn't more conducive to playoff success. The only part of this team that is more conducive to playoff success is goaltending. Which is probably the most impactful piece you can have, if it keeps up, but while that can steal you a series or two (if the other team doesn't also get top tier goaltending), you generally need more for a cup.

The blocked shots, the clearing the area in front of the net, the clearing of rebounds, the battles along the boards, all are much more noticeable than the past.

We have almost exactly the same number of shots blocked as last year. 1352 and 1357. And while we do average about 3 more blocks per 60 minutes over the past 2 years compared to 2020-2023, that is, ironically, a result of being worse defensively. We're averaging 3 more blocks because we're allowing an average 8 more shot attempts that need blocking. That's not a net positive, and a great example of how people incorrectly perceive overall defensive performance.

We are not clearing the front of the net and rebounds. We are objectively allowing more rebounds. We've always been good at battling along the boards. If you're noticing it more now, it's because we're spending so much more time doing it, because we're getting stuck in the zone at times when we used to be able to get it out. We tend to overemphasize individual defensive actions (especially the ones we like) over the more macro results. An average fan will notice and credit a shot block more than they will recognize and criticise them allowing the shot attempt in the first place.

There is so much more to good defensive play than these things anyway. Some people have such a narrow perception of what defense means, and they can't recognise that there are a lot more effective ways to defend than pushing people in front of the net and having pucks hit you.

We've got the best shutdown pairing of the core 4 era in Tanev-McCabe. Or do you have advanced stats that say otherwise?

They are a very good 5v5 shutdown pairing, but we've had good shutdown pairings before. Muzzin-Brodie at the very least are comparable, and there is more to the overall defensive play of a team than just the shutdown pairing. Benoit has been horrible defensively this year. OEL has really struggled defensively. The defensive proficiency of our forward depth has really fallen off. Our PK is a mess all around.

I guess we'll see if this winner of the Atlantic Division has in fact found the better ingredients to success. More defensive awareness, better coaching, better defence, better goaltending, more compete, and more determination. ALL contributing to our success this season. GLG.

We won the division because the division fell off. This same record would be 3rd in the division in 2021/22, 2nd in 2022/23, and 3rd in 2023/24. You can celebrate the win and still recognize the context behind it.

We don't have better defensive awareness, coaching, defense, compete, or determination than we've had in the past. We do have a bit better goaltending going into the playoffs, and an easier path, and hopefully that maintains and will be enough to overcome what we've lost.

It's kind of sad that people dig deep into advanced stats to support their agenda of trashing Treliving and denigrating this year's team. It's almost like they feel the Leafs haven't earned their first place finish. They go to great lengths in trying to prove that this season's success is all a mirage and due to one aspect of the team (goaltending).

What's sad is people denying simple objective facts because they want to trash past GMs and Leaf teams, and prop up the GM they like. The Leafs earned their first place finish. It is a great accomplishment. It is also an easier accomplishment than the equivalent in past years, because it was abnormally difficult in past years, and it doesn't automatically make a team superior. Both can be true.

Acknowledging that goaltending has heavily propped up this team isn't to pretend everything is a mirage. It's just the reality of our situation, and while a well performing goalie is the most beneficial piece you can have, relying so heavily on it comes with concerns because of the inherent volatility of the position.

There are stats that show this team is more than just goaltending (although that is a big part of our success) and deserving of the praise and optimism we give this team going into the playoffs. Here are a few:

-Top 5 in blocked shots (1 357)
-Top 10 in hits (1 982)
-A league best .733 winning percentage in one-goal games
-Top 10 in the NHL in goals against per game (2.79)
-The second best 5-on-5 save percentage (92.6)

You just named 5 things, and 3 of them are attributable to goaltending... And the other two aren't really the positives you think they are. We have a lot of hits because we spend a lot of time without the puck. Hitting isn't actually valuable unless it's to accomplish something else. It's a tool for an objective, not the objective. And as discussed above, the shot block thing is mostly a result of allowing a lot of shot attempts.

Yeah, things like points, wins, goals against, goals for, etc are the stats I think are more relevant than obscure stats.

Over the past 5 years, this year ranks 4th in points, 2nd in wins, 3rd in goals against, 5th in goals for, so even by the stats you claim are the relevant ones, this year has not been an outlier.

Here's an interesting comparison,
Florida 2023-2024.......52 wins, 42 RW, 110 points...........Stanley Cup Champions.
Leafs 2024-25.......52 wins, 41 RW, 108 points.........just one less RW than the Champs.

Yes. Nobody is suggesting that this team isn't capable of winning. Some are just falsely suggesting that this team is more capable than past years.

 

[Dekes For Days]

And Woll, and Marner, Lou wasn't GM until after Marner was drafted

You're right that Marner was Dubas (as was Tavares, Knies, McCabe, McMann, Robertson, Holmberg, Kampf, and Jarnkrok), but Woll was drafted in 2016 under Lou. Though Dubas did sign him to the amazing contract he's currently on.

 

[Jmo89]

Ultimately Treliving's job will be rated on what happens in the playoffs. With the talent on the team a CHL GM could walk onto the job and have a playoff team. Ditto on the coach.

It's going to come down to whether or not Tre made the right choice not moving off the core and in hiring Berube. Dubas was a failure and Keefe consistently got out coached in the playoffs (though my view of him is more favorable than Dubas.) If the team Tre has built still can't find playoff success then the job he's doing is mediocre at best.

As fans we get to enjoy the benefit of hindsight so I'll rate him when these playoffs wrap up. Stolarz, Tanev, and Carlo all look like great moves. The depth is still a concerning. I'm hopeful for the playoffs as the team seems to be on a roll these past two months and hopefully they catch lightning in a bottle and ride great goaltending for a deep run.

The final 10-15 games have gotten me alot more excited for the playoffs.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Yes. Nobody is suggesting that this team isn't capable of winning. Some are just falsely suggesting that this team is more capable than past years.

Stats aside, I would contend that they are more capable this year given the personnel in net, the personnel on defence, and overall maturity of the core players.

 

[CabanaBoy5]

It doesn't take that much time. When we switched to Keefe, we were instantly better defensively, and without the training camp or preseason that Berube got. When the NYI, for example, switched from an all offense coach to a hard-core defensive structure coach, they went from 2nd worst in the league defensively one season to 3rd best in the league the next. When you have a good system, it works pretty fast.

And it wouldn't be that bad if it did just take time and we were getting good defensive results now, but as much as we both wish it weren't true, we're not even doing that. We're getting bad and increasingly worse defensive results. I can excuse it getting worse recently since it is a sample where we lost our two best defensive defensemen for a stretch, but there has been a systemic issue the whole year.

No. You can't just ignore facts for your feelings. If every single basic and advanced stat and possible measure is telling you that we're not doing very well defensively and the goaltending is carrying us, then it's time to accept that, acknowledge the inherent human biases that cloud your "eye test", and reevaluate the blind trust you put in media personalities on the TV trying to sell you a good story.

Objectively, we are not doing better defensively. 2020-2023, we were good defensively at 5v5 and on the PK. Last year, we were bad defensively at 5v5 and on the PK. This year, we went back to 2020-2023 levels at 5v5, but it was countered by our PK getting increasingly worse. Improving our 5v5 defense also cost us our 5v5 offense this time. This isn't more conducive to playoff success. The only part of this team that is more conducive to playoff success is goaltending. Which is probably the most impactful piece you can have, if it keeps up, but while that can steal you a series or two (if the other team doesn't also get top tier goaltending), you generally need more for a cup.

We have almost exactly the same number of shots blocked as last year. 1352 and 1357. And while we do average about 3 more blocks per 60 minutes over the past 2 years compared to 2020-2023, that is, ironically, a result of being worse defensively. We're averaging 3 more blocks because we're allowing an average 8 more shot attempts that need blocking. That's not a net positive, and a great example of how people incorrectly perceive overall defensive performance.

We are not clearing the front of the net and rebounds. We are objectively allowing more rebounds. We've always been good at battling along the boards. If you're noticing it more now, it's because we're spending so much more time doing it, because we're getting stuck in the zone at times when we used to be able to get it out. We tend to overemphasize individual defensive actions (especially the ones we like) over the more macro results. An average fan will notice and credit a shot block more than they will recognize and criticise them allowing the shot attempt in the first place.

There is so much more to good defensive play than these things anyway. Some people have such a narrow perception of what defense means, and they can't recognise that there are a lot more effective ways to defend than pushing people in front of the net and having pucks hit you.

They are a very good 5v5 shutdown pairing, but we've had good shutdown pairings before. Muzzin-Brodie at the very least are comparable, and there is more to the overall defensive play of a team than just the shutdown pairing. Benoit has been horrible defensively this year. OEL has really struggled defensively. The defensive proficiency of our forward depth has really fallen off. Our PK is a mess all around.

We won the division because the division fell off. This same record would be 3rd in the division in 2021/22, 2nd in 2022/23, and 3rd in 2023/24. You can celebrate the win and still recognize the context behind it.

We don't have better defensive awareness, coaching, defense, compete, or determination than we've had in the past. We do have a bit better goaltending going into the playoffs, and an easier path, and hopefully that maintains and will be enough to overcome what we've lost.

What's sad is people denying simple objective facts because they want to trash past GMs and Leaf teams, and prop up the GM they like. The Leafs earned their first place finish. It is a great accomplishment. It is also an easier accomplishment than the equivalent in past years, because it was abnormally difficult in past years, and it doesn't automatically make a team superior. Both can be true.

Acknowledging that goaltending has heavily propped up this team isn't to pretend everything is a mirage. It's just the reality of our situation, and while a well performing goalie is the most beneficial piece you can have, relying so heavily on it comes with concerns because of the inherent volatility of the position.

You just named 5 things, and 3 of them are attributable to goaltending... And the other two aren't really the positives you think they are. We have a lot of hits because we spend a lot of time without the puck. Hitting isn't actually valuable unless it's to accomplish something else. It's a tool for an objective, not the objective. And as discussed above, the shot block thing is mostly a result of allowing a lot of shot attempts.

Over the past 5 years, this year ranks 4th in points, 2nd in wins, 3rd in goals against, 5th in goals for, so even by the stats you claim are the relevant ones, this year has not been an outlier.

Yes. Nobody is suggesting that this team isn't capable of winning. Some are just falsely suggesting that this team is more capable than past years.

When experts are asked why this Leaf team is different, they don't only point to goaltending as you say. How the team is playing, and are they prepared for the rigors of playoff hockey, is more important.

This team is playing well heading into the playoffs, 9-1 in the last 10, 19-8 in the last 27. They are also playing a different style as a result of their coach. They have a better top 4 D than any iteration in 9 years. They've relied less on just outscoring the opposition using only a handful of players, not taking chances and not blowing coverage like they have in the past.


Ray Ferraro, a respected analyst said

"One of these years Toronto is going to punch through, I don't know if it's this year, but they play a heck of a lot differently than they did in the past and I think a lot of that's around (coach) Craig Berube."

Ed Olczyk, another respected analyst said

"I believe they are different. When Craig Berube was hired back in the middle of the summer, he had lots of options. I just felt with the moves that were coming on the back end, obviously getting (Chris) Tanev and OEL you need experience, you need guys who have been through the gauntlet".

PK Subban (not sure how respected he is, lol)

"Toronto has played the best hockey we've seen them play over the years because of Craig Berube, but they have to get over the hump. A first-round loss for them, even a second-round loss with the talent they have is inexcusable."

So if these guys suggest that we're playing differently under this coach, that we have a better chance to win than any other year, why do you insist on constantly hammering us with advanced stats that prove squat in the long run? It didn't work with the past regime, so let it go my friend and enjoy the ride.

 

[keonsbitterness]

Edit: Just realized you said "nobias" and not "notbias" even this statement was weak.

Except that not bias is grammatically incorrect, while no bias is correct.

 

[CabanaBoy5]

Except that not bias is grammatically incorrect, while no bias is correct.

However, not biased would be grammatically correct.

 

[keonsbitterness]

However, not biased would be grammatically correct.

Maybe we need a spelling & grammar thread. I've made my share of mistakes.

 

[kevsh]

Depth used to be a Leafs myth. Now, it’s a strength.

Forward depth? A bit of a stretch to call it a "strength". Currently there's one player in the bottom 6 that hit 10 goals this year as Leaf. Two if you count Laughton who had 13 total.

By comparison Ottawa has 5 players with 10+ goals in their bottom 6 and almost goals from their 4th line as Toronto's entire bottom 6 combined (though to be fair, Ottawa is an outlier in having such a potent 4th line).

Outside of the legitimate concern that the Leafs won't get the depth scoring that they will certainly need to advance, the rest of the roster is stronger than it's been in the Shanahan era ... Providing of course that the top line does what it's paid to do. If not, everything else is a moot point.

 

[conFABulator]

Forward depth? A bit of a stretch to call it a "strength". Currently there's one player in the bottom 6 that hit 10 goals this year as Leaf. Two if you count Laughton who had 13 total.

By comparison Ottawa has 5 players with 10+ goals in their bottom 6 and almost goals from their 4th line as Toronto's entire bottom 6 combined (though to be fair, Ottawa is an outlier in having such a potent 4th line).

Outside of the legitimate concern that the Leafs won't get the depth scoring that they will certainly need to advance, the rest of the roster is stronger than it's been in the Shanahan era ... Providing of course that the top line does what it's paid to do. If not, everything else is a moot point.

Its a relative term, depth as compared to other teams and previous Leaf teams.. it's not about comparing the bottom six to the top six.

If we go with

Knies Matthews Marner
Pacioretty Tavares Nylander
McMann Domi Robertson
Lorentz Kampf Laughton

...which could very well be opening night lineup. Are there many teams that have more goals in the bottom six?

 

[Dreakmur]

You're right that Marner was Dubas

Dubas was the Marlies GM during that time.

(as was Tavares, Knies, McCabe, McMann, Robertson, Holmberg, Kampf, and Jarnkrok), but Woll was drafted in 2016 under Lou. Though Dubas did sign him to the amazing contract he's currently on.

If you want to give the Marlies GM credit for drafting Marner, you should at least be consistent and give the Marlies GM credit for signing Bobby McMann.

 

[conFABulator]

Forward depth? A bit of a stretch to call it a "strength". Currently there's one player in the bottom 6 that hit 10 goals this year as Leaf. Two if you count Laughton who had 13 total.

By comparison Ottawa has 5 players with 10+ goals in their bottom 6 and almost goals from their 4th line as Toronto's entire bottom 6 combined (though to be fair, Ottawa is an outlier in having such a potent 4th line).

Outside of the legitimate concern that the Leafs won't get the depth scoring that they will certainly need to advance, the rest of the roster is stronger than it's been in the Shanahan era ... Providing of course that the top line does what it's paid to do. If not, everything else is a moot point.

Ottawa may very well be outlier, but how are you configuring their top six and bottom six. I see guys like Gaudette and Cozens and Zetterlund with lots of goals but don't know that many of them were scored playing in Ottawa's bottom six ..I could be wrong though and am legitimately curious as to how they configure top six/bottom six.

 

[Tie Domi Esquire]

2025 and people are still pretending that coward Dubas has any talent.

 

[LeafSteel]

When experts are asked why this Leaf team is different, they don't only point to goaltending as you say. How the team is playing, and are they prepared for the rigors of playoff hockey, is more important.

This team is playing well heading into the playoffs, 9-1 in the last 10, 19-8 in the last 27. They are also playing a different style as a result of their coach. They have a better top 4 D than any iteration in 9 years. They've relied less on just outscoring the opposition using only a handful of players, not taking chances and not blowing coverage like they have in the past.


Ray Ferraro, a respected analyst said

"One of these years Toronto is going to punch through, I don't know if it's this year, but they play a heck of a lot differently than they did in the past and I think a lot of that's around (coach) Craig Berube."

Ed Olczyk, another respected analyst said

"I believe they are different. When Craig Berube was hired back in the middle of the summer, he had lots of options. I just felt with the moves that were coming on the back end, obviously getting (Chris) Tanev and OEL you need experience, you need guys who have been through the gauntlet".

PK Subban (not sure how respected he is, lol)

"Toronto has played the best hockey we've seen them play over the years because of Craig Berube, but they have to get over the hump. A first-round loss for them, even a second-round loss with the talent they have is inexcusable."

So if these guys suggest that we're playing differently under this coach, that we have a better chance to win than any other year, why do you insist on constantly hammering us with advanced stats that prove squat in the long run? It didn't work with the past regime, so let it go my friend and enjoy the ride.

How can the bots and their burner accounts take this post seriously?

Not one single stat or metric has been provided here? Not one single analytic piece presented. Not one shred of Dubasiteosity has been shared.

Please. Using actual analysts instead of the anals? What were you thinking man???

 

[Donnie740]

I’m so glad Treliving was able to recognize how completely useless Luke Schenn is and not waste any assets acquiring this pylon at the deadline like so many Leaf “fans” were hoping.

Schenn has been absolutely brutal so far in Game 1. We’re talking Justin Holl level brutal.

 

[LeafEgo]

I’m so glad Treliving was able to recognize how completely useless Luke Schenn is and not waste any assets acquiring this pylon at the deadline like so many Leaf “fans” were hoping.

Schenn has been absolutely brutal so far in Game 1. We’re talking Justin Holl level brutal.

Is that Schenner, #5 out there? That wasn't a very good period for him.