Brad Treliving is doing a great job.

[Jojalu]

Brandon Carlo at $3.485 AAV or Neal Pionk at $7 AAV

Brad Treliving isn’t doing a great job - - he’s doing an incredible job.

Carlo was at 4.1, while Pionk was at 5.4.

Pionk would also be considered better than Carlo. Just as good defensively with more offensive ability.

We also have to wait to see what Carlo re-ups for.

But it was an outatanding move by Trw to land Carlo

 

[leafs in five]

our top 5 scorers accounted for 65% of the team's goals this year, compared to 62% last year, 61 in 22/23, 57 in 21/22

 

[leafs in five]

Carlo was at 4.1, while Pionk was at 5.4.

Pionk would also be considered better than Carlo. Just as good defensively with more offensive ability.

We also have to wait to see what Carlo re-ups for.

But it was an outatanding move by Trw to land Carlo

Carlo at that price also cost our 2nd best prospect and a 1st round pick

 

[Donnie740]

Carlo at that price also cost our 2nd best prospect and a 1st round pick

You mean a minor league plug and a 1st round pick.

 

[leafs in five]

Yeah Donnie that's what I meant thanks

 

[notbias]

I think you meant "helping their goaltending".

Did you see the Tampa Bay game last week?

View attachment 1016210

I think you mean instead of Run and Gun, the Leafs now new style is Stay and Play. Case in point.

Stolarz faced 28 TB shots in the win HOWEVER the key stat that nobody often considers is Blocked Shots and very underrated stat,

The Leafs blocked an amazing 33 shots attempts at net that Stolarz never needed to face. That is not losing style run and gun (as in the past) and leaving the goalie hanging out to dry as Leafs forwards tried to outscore their mistakes.

View attachment 1016214

Leafs new style under Berube is putting a wall up defensively around their goalie assisting the team defensively making his job easier. This is playoff winning style hockey.

Hey, I just looked it up and having a ton of chances against is not good, it turns out that the team with more chance to score usually wins the game.

 

[notbias]

Brandon Carlo at $3.485 AAV or Neal Pionk at $7 AAV

Brad Treliving isn’t doing a great job - - he’s doing an incredible job.

Carlo or Poink + Minten + 1st

Do the full deal...

You mean a minor league plug and a 1st round pick.

Do you purposely say things like this to prove you know nothing about hockey?

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

I agree with everything except for that was a big reason they brought Laughton in.

It never hurts to have too much leadership as long as everyone is on the same page.

I agree, except he wasn't touted as the savior of the locker room like Ryan O'reilly was or nick Foligno...etc. Having good leaders is great...but not when you depend on an outside guy to come in and take over the locker room with his leadership.

 

[Mess]

Hey, I just looked it up and having a ton of chances against is not good, it turns out that the team with more chance to score usually wins the game.

Those are pretend "expected" stats not based in reality.

That is why someone who quotes "high danger scoring changes" & "expected goals" , is offset by actual Shots Blocked that never even made it to the goalie tells a completely different story.

TB lost that game not because they got out-goalie'd by Stolarz, they got defeated by a better defensive team. TB players only blocked 15 shots on net, compared to Leafs 33.

That is why "Defense wins Championships" is a well understood belief system because its easier by team system to defend a goal against preventing the other team from scoring, then at many times attempt to score a goal for by the offense, to impact the outcome.

Final Boxscore: Strolarz stopped 25 of 28 shots + 33 blocked shots + 5 posts/crossbars = Leafs WIN.

This is how this year the results and expected success is ground in REALITY.

 

[notbias]

Those are pretend "expected" stats not based in reality.

That is why someone who quotes "high danger scoring changes" & "expected goals" , is offset by actual Shots Blocked that never even made it to the goalie tells a completely different story.

TB lost that game not because they got out-goalie'd by Stolarz, they got defeated by a better defensive team. TB players only blocked 15 shots on net, compared to Leafs 33.

That is why "Defense wins Championships" is a well understood belief system because its easier by team system to defend a goal against preventing the other team from scoring, them in many times attempt to score a goal for by the offense to impact the outcome.

Final Boxscore: Strolarz stopped 25 of 28 shots + 33 blocked shots + 5 posts/crossbars = Leafs WIN.

This is how this year the results and expected success is ground in REALITY.

Scoring chances are not pretend stats.

You should look into what you're talking about before speaking so confidently.

This is the same post you post all the time just in a different order, and it is not anymore factual just becasue you bolded some things.

I am convinced you type the same thing over and over again in posts to convince yourself, not others.

 

[Mess]

I’m 69 and I remember the ‘67 Leafs who were an older team that wasn’t expected to get out of the first round against Chicago who had Bobby Hull and Stan Mikita the two top scorers in the league that year. But great goaltending by Johnny Bower and Terry Sawchuk saw them upset the Blackhawks in six games. Then they had to take on a mighty Habs team who had won the cup the two previous years and were a heavy favourite to repeat having swept the Rangers in the first round. That Leafs team had 11 players over the age of 30 and I believe averaged about 35 years of age. There was no way they were going to beat a younger, faster Habs team playing wide open end to end hockey but Punch Imlach had different ideas. He had them play a smothering style of defense first hockey with their defense standing up at the blue line to disrupt the Habs superior speed and heavy checking all over the ice especially anywhere near the net. And that system was able to neutralize the Habs younger, faster skaters and the Leafs in a huge upset won the Cup in six games. The game has changed a lot since 1967 but if the Leafs stick to Berube’s patient, defense first team game, I think they can do some damage. They have a lot of the same ingredients of that ‘67 team. Great goaltending. A strong defensive system, timely scoring and veteran leadership throughout the lineup. This years Leafs seem like a real team not just four star players with a B team attached to them. The 2019 Blues team scratched and clawed their way to a Stanley Cup. Why not the Leafs.

When Leafs captain George "The Chief" Armstrong put the puck into the empty net, putting OUR Leafs up 3-1 and moments away from their last Stanley Cup in 1967 it was a time of rejoicing.

Some of us life time long Leaf fans have been invested in all those years from 1967 until today to feel that JOY again. Maybe this is OUR year.

 

[Ports]

When Leafs captain George "The Chief" Armstrong put the puck into the empty net, putting OUR Leafs up 3-1 and moments away from their last Stanley Cup in 1967 it was a time of rejoicing.

Some of us life time long Leaf fans have been invested in all those years from 1967 until today to feel that JOY again. Maybe this is OUR year.

Hopefully. Who would have thought 58 years later we’re still waiting for the next cup ? I think they finally have a team that can do it.

 

[authentic]

our top 5 scorers accounted for 65% of the team's goals this year, compared to 62% last year, 61 in 22/23, 57 in 21/22

And that’s with Matthews having the biggest off year of his career.

 

[Ports]

They seem like a real team this year in part because of the roster not having 50%+ turnover like the Dubas years. There is only so much fight a 3rd or 4th liner will have for the team when he knows he is leaving for greener money pastures in the offseason. Teams that have some consistent linemates will do better than the mercenary teams that Dubas tried to build.

Do you notice this year that Tre didn't have to trade for a leader type to help the dressing room? No talk of it at all this year compared to the past. It makes a difference if the team is unified and not revolving. There is no magic help coming from outside to show them how to win...they need to figure it out on their own. Which it does seem like they are doing...operative word is seem....

Great points. I see more leadership in this group than any recent Leafs team. The star players who’ve been on the team for a while are tired of losing and have accepted the fact that they can’t generate as much offense in the playoffs and need to focus on a defense first approach. And players like Tanev, OEL and Carlo bring in more veteran leadership and playoff experience. I also think Knies has taken a huge step in his development not only as a big contributor but a player who is hard nosed and leads by example. Add in a player friendly coach with a great reputation and experience in winning a cup and it feels like a different day in Leaf land.

 

[Ports]

I think this system is pretty reliant on 4 (5, actually) players outscoring the opposition. also our forwards cheat all the time. anyway, go Leafs go

Sure you need your best players to score and you can’t win without scoring. That goes for any team.

 

[Ports]

Such an outstanding post.

Thanks for sharing.

You’re welcome. Gotta put it out there while I can still remember it.

 

[Ports]

I love posts like this. It's rare that you get insight from anyone who got to watch them in 67, but it always gives me goosebumps reading it.

Thank you for sharing.

GLG

You’re welcome. Why not this year too.

 

[Dekes For Days]

With the 82nd game completed, let's take a look at how this season compares to the past half decade.

Stat: 2020/21 -> 2021/22 -> 2022/23 -> 2023/24 -> 2024/25

Overall
Points: 113 -> 115 -> 111 -> 102 -> 108
Wins: 51 -> 54 -> 50 -> 46 -> 52
Regulation + OT Wins: 50 -> 51 -> 49 -> 41 -> 51
Regulation Wins: 42 -> 45 -> 42 -> 33 -> 40
Goal Differential: +56 -> +60 -> +58 -> +37 -> +38
Expected Goal Differential: +62 -> +65 -> +44 -> +27 -> -6

Shots/60: 31.0 -> 34.7 -> 31.8 -> 32.1 -> 27.8
High Danger Shots/60: 3.37 -> 3.53 -> 3.96 -> 4.08 -> 3.69
Rebound Shots/60: 2.29 -> 2.50 -> 3.08 -> 3.35 -> 2.94
Expected Goals/60: 3.44 -> 3.55 -> 3.46 -> 3.49 -> 3.16
Goals/60: 3.30 -> 3.77 -> 3.36 -> 3.58 -> 3.23

Shots Against/60: 27.6 -> 30.7 -> 29.3 -> 29.4 -> 29.1
High Danger Shots Against/60: 3.37 -> 2.50 -> 3.15 -> 3.87 -> 3.68
Rebound Shots Against/60: 2.11 -> 2.08 -> 2.94 -> 3.35 -> 3.52
Expected Goals Against/60: 2.68 -> 2.78 -> 2.94 -> 3.17 -> 3.22
Goals Saved Above Expected: -0.9 -> -21.0 -> +24.1 -> +5.4 -> +35.7
Goals Against/60: 2.62 -> 3.04 -> 2.66 -> 3.13 -> 2.77

5v5
Goal Differential: +56 -> +26 -> +41 -> +30 -> +33
Expected Goal Differential: +40 -> +38 -> +30 -> +8 -> -1

5v5 Shots/60: 29.1 -> 33.7 -> 31.1 -> 30.7 -> 26.8
5v5 High Danger Shots/60: 3.46 -> 2.47 -> 2.94 -> 2.76 -> 2.30
5v5 Rebound Shots/60: 2.92 -> 2.22 -> 2.70 -> 3.02 -> 2.63
5v5 Expected Goals/60: 2.85 -> 2.98 -> 2.96 -> 2.71 -> 2.36
5v5 Goals/60: 2.85 -> 3.05 -> 2.76 -> 2.93 -> 2.50

5v5 Shots Against/60: 26.5 -> 30.1 -> 28.3 -> 27.7 -> 27.6
5v5 High Danger Shots Against/60: 2.38 -> 1.95 -> 2.45 -> 3.01 -> 2.41
5v5 Rebound Shots Against/60: 1.85 -> 1.81 -> 2.76 -> 3.30 -> 3.32
5v5 Expected Goals Against/60: 2.28 -> 2.42 -> 2.51 -> 2.60 -> 2.39
5V5 Goals Saved Above Expected: +9.3 -> -16.6 -> +24.8 -> +7.4 -> +26.2
5v5 Goals Against/60: 2.04 -> 2.67 -> 2.15 -> 2.49 -> 2.01

Powerplay (5v4)
PP Shots/60: 57.5 -> 64.9 -> 59.0 -> 60.0 -> 50.8
PP High Danger Shots/60: 10.0 -> 10.3 -> 10.5 -> 11.7 -> 12.6
PP Rebound Shots/60: 6.67 -> 6.92 -> 8.98 -> 7.02 -> 8.08
PP Expected Goals/60: 7.15 -> 7.98 -> 7.61 -> 8.84 -> 8.60
PP Goals/60: 6.90 -> 10.28 -> 9.29 -> 8.68 -> 8.96

Penalty Kill (4v5)
PK Shots Against/60: 46.8 -> 48.6 -> 49.7 -> 57.2 -> 52.5
PK High Danger Shots Against/60: 6.18 -> 4.75 -> 6.78 -> 9.35 -> 11.33
PK Rebound Shots Against/60: 3.86 -> 5.25 -> 4.72 -> 5.48 -> 7.00
PK Expected Goals Against/60: 5.40 -> 4.75 -> 5.60 -> 7.41 -> 8.65
PK Goals Saved Above Expected: -4.4 -> -11.8 -> -0.4 -> -3.9 -> +4.6
PK Goals Against/60: 6.43 -> 6.72 -> 5.74 -> 8.06 -> 7.98

So over the past 5 years, this year ranks...

1st in goals saved above expected, 5v5 goals saved above expected, 5v5 goals against, PP high danger shots, and PK goals saved above expected.

2nd in wins, regulation/OT wins, shots against, 5v5 shots against, 5v5 expected goals against, PP rebound shots, and PP expected goals.

3rd in high danger shots, rebound shots, goals against, 5v5 goal differential, 5v5 high danger shots against, and PP goals.

4th in points, regulation wins, goal differential, high danger shots against, 5v5 rebound shots, PK shots against, and PK goals against.

5th in expected goal differential, shots, expected goals, goals, rebound shots against, expected goals against, 5v5 expected goal differential, 5v5 shots, 5v5 high danger shots, 5v5 expected goals, 5v5 goals, 5v5 rebound shots against, PP shots, PK high danger shots against, PK rebound shots against, and PK expected goals against.

In conclusion, both our underlying offensive and defensive play has fallen off, raising coaching concerns. We've gotten our 5v5 defensive play back, but it's cost us our 5v5 offense this time (in both quantity and quality), and our PK has fallen off so much that we're putting up worse defensive results overall. We struggle to defend the net front and allow a lot of rebound shots. But our goaltending has been really good in all game states to help compensate. The 5 forward setup on the PP has slightly increased the quality of the shots we're getting at the expense of the quantity, though this hasn't translated to more goals; perhaps hurt by the Matthews injury.

We're not as good as our early 2020s peak overall, but we've found ways to squeak out more wins than last year at least, and if our goaltending can maintain what it's done, we have a good shot in the playoffs, especially with the weakening of the division and conference around us. Hopefully we can go on a run!

 

[DarkKnight]

Isn’t a reporter or analyst that follows the team that doesn’t think this type of hockey has the best chance for success. You stragglers have fun lol.

 

[notbias]

Isn’t a reporter or analyst that follows the team that doesn’t think this type of hockey has the best chance for success. You stragglers have fun lol.

Just like every year, this year is different, the media told us it is.

I've seen you post this about 20 times, are you trying to convince yourself that this is true?

It's hockey, anything can happen, luckiest game of the big 4 sports, but this team relies heavily on goaltending, it might end up being a recipe for success, but us winning will likely rely heavily on how well the goaltenders play.

Also, this isn't an argument, Kypereos is considered an analyst, who cares what half these clowns say?

 

[notbias]

our top 5 scorers accounted for 65% of the team's goals this year, compared to 62% last year, 61 in 22/23, 57 in 21/22

Good thing we've never had depth scoring issues in the playoffs before...........

I am sure if we lose, it will be the fault of the top 6 again when the bottom half contributes nothing.

 

[LeafSteel]

Narratives are so tiresome.

To have success in the playoffs, every team needs the following:

-their coach needs to be the better coach.
-their top 6 needs to be the better top 6.
-their bottom 6 needs to be the better bottom 6.
- their defence needs to be the better defence.
- their goalie needs to be the better goalie.

How many previous playoffs could we say any of this about our team, let alone all of them, and where do we land on these on paper now for this series?

How we answer those at the end of Round 1 will directly influence if we have moved on or have been eliminated.

It’s a lot, and it’s why it’s so damn hard to win the Stanley Cup.

Go Leafs Go!

 

[MCR74]

Just like every year, this year is different, the media told us it is.

I've seen you post this about 20 times, are you trying to convince yourself that this is true?

It's hockey, anything can happen, luckiest game of the big 4 sports, but this team relies heavily on goaltending, it might end up being a recipe for success, but us winning will likely rely heavily on how well the goaltenders play.

Also, this isn't an argument, Kypereos is considered an analyst, who cares what half these clowns say?

What we're missing is the viewpoint of the great Steve Simmons.

 

[authentic]

With the 82nd game completed, let's take a look at how this season compares to the past half decade.

Stat: 2020/21 -> 2021/22 -> 2022/23 -> 2023/24 -> 2024/25

Overall
Points: 113 -> 115 -> 111 -> 102 -> 108
Wins: 51 -> 54 -> 50 -> 46 -> 52
Regulation + OT Wins: 50 -> 51 -> 49 -> 41 -> 51
Regulation Wins: 42 -> 45 -> 42 -> 33 -> 40
Goal Differential: +56 -> +60 -> +58 -> +37 -> +38
Expected Goal Differential: +62 -> +65 -> +44 -> +27 -> -6

Shots/60: 31.0 -> 34.7 -> 31.8 -> 32.1 -> 27.8
High Danger Shots/60: 3.37 -> 3.53 -> 3.96 -> 4.08 -> 3.69
Rebound Shots/60: 2.29 -> 2.50 -> 3.08 -> 3.35 -> 2.94
Expected Goals/60: 3.44 -> 3.55 -> 3.46 -> 3.49 -> 3.16
Goals/60: 3.30 -> 3.77 -> 3.36 -> 3.58 -> 3.23

Shots Against/60: 27.6 -> 30.7 -> 29.3 -> 29.4 -> 29.1
High Danger Shots Against/60: 3.37 -> 2.50 -> 3.15 -> 3.87 -> 3.68
Rebound Shots Against/60: 2.11 -> 2.08 -> 2.94 -> 3.35 -> 3.52
Expected Goals Against/60: 2.68 -> 2.78 -> 2.94 -> 3.17 -> 3.22
Goals Saved Above Expected: -0.9 -> -21.0 -> +24.1 -> +5.4 -> +35.7
Goals Against/60: 2.62 -> 3.04 -> 2.66 -> 3.13 -> 2.77

5v5
Goal Differential: +56 -> +26 -> +41 -> +30 -> +33
Expected Goal Differential: +40 -> +38 -> +30 -> +8 -> -1

5v5 Shots/60: 29.1 -> 33.7 -> 31.1 -> 30.7 -> 26.8
5v5 High Danger Shots/60: 3.46 -> 2.47 -> 2.94 -> 2.76 -> 2.30
5v5 Rebound Shots/60: 2.92 -> 2.22 -> 2.70 -> 3.02 -> 2.63
5v5 Expected Goals/60: 2.85 -> 2.98 -> 2.96 -> 2.71 -> 2.36
5v5 Goals/60: 2.85 -> 3.05 -> 2.76 -> 2.93 -> 2.50

5v5 Shots Against/60: 26.5 -> 30.1 -> 28.3 -> 27.7 -> 27.6
5v5 High Danger Shots Against/60: 2.38 -> 1.95 -> 2.45 -> 3.01 -> 2.41
5v5 Rebound Shots Against/60: 1.85 -> 1.81 -> 2.76 -> 3.30 -> 3.32
5v5 Expected Goals Against/60: 2.28 -> 2.42 -> 2.51 -> 2.60 -> 2.39
5V5 Goals Saved Above Expected: +9.3 -> -16.6 -> +24.8 -> +7.4 -> +26.2
5v5 Goals Against/60: 2.04 -> 2.67 -> 2.15 -> 2.49 -> 2.01

Powerplay (5v4)
PP Shots/60: 57.5 -> 64.9 -> 59.0 -> 60.0 -> 50.8
PP High Danger Shots/60: 10.0 -> 10.3 -> 10.5 -> 11.7 -> 12.6
PP Rebound Shots/60: 6.67 -> 6.92 -> 8.98 -> 7.02 -> 8.08
PP Expected Goals/60: 7.15 -> 7.98 -> 7.61 -> 8.84 -> 8.60
PP Goals/60: 6.90 -> 10.28 -> 9.29 -> 8.68 -> 8.96

Penalty Kill (4v5)
PK Shots Against/60: 46.8 -> 48.6 -> 49.7 -> 57.2 -> 52.5
PK High Danger Shots Against/60: 6.18 -> 4.75 -> 6.78 -> 9.35 -> 11.33
PK Rebound Shots Against/60: 3.86 -> 5.25 -> 4.72 -> 5.48 -> 7.00
PK Expected Goals Against/60: 5.40 -> 4.75 -> 5.60 -> 7.41 -> 8.65
PK Goals Saved Above Expected: -4.4 -> -11.8 -> -0.4 -> -3.9 -> +4.6
PK Goals Against/60: 6.43 -> 6.72 -> 5.74 -> 8.06 -> 7.98

So over the past 5 years, this year ranks...

1st in goals saved above expected, 5v5 goals saved above expected, 5v5 goals against, PP high danger shots, and PK goals saved above expected.

2nd in wins, regulation/OT wins, shots against, 5v5 shots against, 5v5 expected goals against, PP rebound shots, and PP expected goals.

3rd in high danger shots, rebound shots, goals against, 5v5 goal differential, 5v5 high danger shots against, and PP goals.

4th in points, regulation wins, goal differential, high danger shots against, 5v5 rebound shots, PK shots against, and PK goals against.

5th in expected goal differential, shots, expected goals, goals, rebound shots against, expected goals against, 5v5 expected goal differential, 5v5 shots, 5v5 high danger shots, 5v5 expected goals, 5v5 goals, 5v5 rebound shots against, PP shots, PK high danger shots against, PK rebound shots against, and PK expected goals against.

In conclusion, both our underlying offensive and defensive play has fallen off, raising coaching concerns. We've gotten our 5v5 defensive play back, but it's cost us our 5v5 offense this time (in both quantity and quality), and our PK has fallen off so much that we're putting up worse defensive results overall. We struggle to defend the net front and allow a lot of rebound shots. But our goaltending has been really good in all game states to help compensate. The 5 forward setup on the PP has slightly increased the quality of the shots we're getting at the expense of the quantity, though this hasn't translated to more goals; perhaps hurt by the Matthews injury.

We're not as good as our early 2020s peak overall, but we've found ways to squeak out more wins than last year at least, and if our goaltending can maintain what it's done, we have a good shot in the playoffs, especially with the weakening of the division and conference around us. Hopefully we can go on a run!

I just wish with all my heart that Matthews could fire those lasers again and we didn’t have to worry about his health.

 

[CabanaBoy5]

With the 82nd game completed, let's take a look at how this season compares to the past half decade.

Stat: 2020/21 -> 2021/22 -> 2022/23 -> 2023/24 -> 2024/25

Overall
Points: 113 -> 115 -> 111 -> 102 -> 108
Wins: 51 -> 54 -> 50 -> 46 -> 52
Regulation + OT Wins: 50 -> 51 -> 49 -> 41 -> 51
Regulation Wins: 42 -> 45 -> 42 -> 33 -> 40
Goal Differential: +56 -> +60 -> +58 -> +37 -> +38
Expected Goal Differential: +62 -> +65 -> +44 -> +27 -> -6

Shots/60: 31.0 -> 34.7 -> 31.8 -> 32.1 -> 27.8
High Danger Shots/60: 3.37 -> 3.53 -> 3.96 -> 4.08 -> 3.69
Rebound Shots/60: 2.29 -> 2.50 -> 3.08 -> 3.35 -> 2.94
Expected Goals/60: 3.44 -> 3.55 -> 3.46 -> 3.49 -> 3.16
Goals/60: 3.30 -> 3.77 -> 3.36 -> 3.58 -> 3.23

Shots Against/60: 27.6 -> 30.7 -> 29.3 -> 29.4 -> 29.1
High Danger Shots Against/60: 3.37 -> 2.50 -> 3.15 -> 3.87 -> 3.68
Rebound Shots Against/60: 2.11 -> 2.08 -> 2.94 -> 3.35 -> 3.52
Expected Goals Against/60: 2.68 -> 2.78 -> 2.94 -> 3.17 -> 3.22
Goals Saved Above Expected: -0.9 -> -21.0 -> +24.1 -> +5.4 -> +35.7
Goals Against/60: 2.62 -> 3.04 -> 2.66 -> 3.13 -> 2.77

5v5
Goal Differential: +56 -> +26 -> +41 -> +30 -> +33
Expected Goal Differential: +40 -> +38 -> +30 -> +8 -> -1

5v5 Shots/60: 29.1 -> 33.7 -> 31.1 -> 30.7 -> 26.8
5v5 High Danger Shots/60: 3.46 -> 2.47 -> 2.94 -> 2.76 -> 2.30
5v5 Rebound Shots/60: 2.92 -> 2.22 -> 2.70 -> 3.02 -> 2.63
5v5 Expected Goals/60: 2.85 -> 2.98 -> 2.96 -> 2.71 -> 2.36
5v5 Goals/60: 2.85 -> 3.05 -> 2.76 -> 2.93 -> 2.50

5v5 Shots Against/60: 26.5 -> 30.1 -> 28.3 -> 27.7 -> 27.6
5v5 High Danger Shots Against/60: 2.38 -> 1.95 -> 2.45 -> 3.01 -> 2.41
5v5 Rebound Shots Against/60: 1.85 -> 1.81 -> 2.76 -> 3.30 -> 3.32
5v5 Expected Goals Against/60: 2.28 -> 2.42 -> 2.51 -> 2.60 -> 2.39
5V5 Goals Saved Above Expected: +9.3 -> -16.6 -> +24.8 -> +7.4 -> +26.2
5v5 Goals Against/60: 2.04 -> 2.67 -> 2.15 -> 2.49 -> 2.01

Powerplay (5v4)
PP Shots/60: 57.5 -> 64.9 -> 59.0 -> 60.0 -> 50.8
PP High Danger Shots/60: 10.0 -> 10.3 -> 10.5 -> 11.7 -> 12.6
PP Rebound Shots/60: 6.67 -> 6.92 -> 8.98 -> 7.02 -> 8.08
PP Expected Goals/60: 7.15 -> 7.98 -> 7.61 -> 8.84 -> 8.60
PP Goals/60: 6.90 -> 10.28 -> 9.29 -> 8.68 -> 8.96

Penalty Kill (4v5)
PK Shots Against/60: 46.8 -> 48.6 -> 49.7 -> 57.2 -> 52.5
PK High Danger Shots Against/60: 6.18 -> 4.75 -> 6.78 -> 9.35 -> 11.33
PK Rebound Shots Against/60: 3.86 -> 5.25 -> 4.72 -> 5.48 -> 7.00
PK Expected Goals Against/60: 5.40 -> 4.75 -> 5.60 -> 7.41 -> 8.65
PK Goals Saved Above Expected: -4.4 -> -11.8 -> -0.4 -> -3.9 -> +4.6
PK Goals Against/60: 6.43 -> 6.72 -> 5.74 -> 8.06 -> 7.98

So over the past 5 years, this year ranks...

1st in goals saved above expected, 5v5 goals saved above expected, 5v5 goals against, PP high danger shots, and PK goals saved above expected.

2nd in wins, regulation/OT wins, shots against, 5v5 shots against, 5v5 expected goals against, PP rebound shots, and PP expected goals.

3rd in high danger shots, rebound shots, goals against, 5v5 goal differential, 5v5 high danger shots against, and PP goals.

4th in points, regulation wins, goal differential, high danger shots against, 5v5 rebound shots, PK shots against, and PK goals against.

5th in expected goal differential, shots, expected goals, goals, rebound shots against, expected goals against, 5v5 expected goal differential, 5v5 shots, 5v5 high danger shots, 5v5 expected goals, 5v5 goals, 5v5 rebound shots against, PP shots, PK high danger shots against, PK rebound shots against, and PK expected goals against.

In conclusion, both our underlying offensive and defensive play has fallen off, raising coaching concerns. We've gotten our 5v5 defensive play back, but it's cost us our 5v5 offense this time (in both quantity and quality), and our PK has fallen off so much that we're putting up worse defensive results overall. We struggle to defend the net front and allow a lot of rebound shots. But our goaltending has been really good in all game states to help compensate. The 5 forward setup on the PP has slightly increased the quality of the shots we're getting at the expense of the quantity, though this hasn't translated to more goals; perhaps hurt by the Matthews injury.

We're not as good as our early 2020s peak overall, but we've found ways to squeak out more wins than last year at least, and if our goaltending can maintain what it's done, we have a good shot in the playoffs, especially with the weakening of the division and conference around us. Hopefully we can go on a run!

Now do the stats since the 4 Nations Tournament or after we picked up a solid 3-4 dman in Carlo that has improved Rielly's game. You know that period of time that we should be building up into a team that is ready for playoff success. New coach, obviously it was going to take time to implement and get the team to play his system consistently. Matthews finally looking like a player ready to show why he's on pace to be the greatest scorer in the game. Knies has turned into a beast.

Here are some stats I think are relevant:

Since the First Nations Tournament:

--> 27 games... 19-8...2.78 GAA
--> last 10 games...9-1...1.50 GAA

In those 10 games we've played Panthers 2x, Lightening, Kings, Carolina...quality opposition. Also, teams that were on the playoff bubble Montreal and Columbus.

It's all about winning the games, playing a solid defensive structure, boxing out players in front of the net, winning board battles, in game adjustments the coach makes, sacrificing your body, and of course great goaltending. This team is as ready as they have ever been in the past 9 years with the right ingredients for success.