Confirmed Signing with Link: [BOS] David Backes (5 years, $6.000M AAV)
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Alberta_OReilly_Fan
Bruin fan since 1975
backes plays a compable style to...
brenden shanahan
bill guerin
john leclair
keith tkchuk
mike knuble
glen murray
gary roberts
this isnt a guy who runs people over every shift like cam neely or eric lindros.
history shows us if a 6'2 220 pounder has good enough skill set to be a 25-35 goal scorer there is traditionally very little if any drop off in scoring before age 36-37
other less physical examples include
jaromir jagr
mats sundin
joe thornton
patrick marleau
and then there is mark messier and gordie howe
size with skill ages very nicely in the nhl if injuries are avoided
compare this to how small europeans age and the louie eriksson contract would be a disaster... or how guys that only succeed by running people over and the lucic deal is scary hell
we can learn risk assessment from history if we look at history
brenden shanahan
bill guerin
john leclair
keith tkchuk
mike knuble
glen murray
gary roberts
this isnt a guy who runs people over every shift like cam neely or eric lindros.
history shows us if a 6'2 220 pounder has good enough skill set to be a 25-35 goal scorer there is traditionally very little if any drop off in scoring before age 36-37
other less physical examples include
jaromir jagr
mats sundin
joe thornton
patrick marleau
and then there is mark messier and gordie howe
size with skill ages very nicely in the nhl if injuries are avoided
compare this to how small europeans age and the louie eriksson contract would be a disaster... or how guys that only succeed by running people over and the lucic deal is scary hell
we can learn risk assessment from history if we look at history
You can't just pick and choose your examples. Plenty of "small" Europeans age just fine and are productive in their mid-to-late 30s. So it's really not as cut and dry as you are acting like it is. I can name lots of them that did just fine. Eriksson plays a style that ages well. He just put up 60 points (a number Backes hasn't hit in 5 years) and is 2 years younger than Backes. It's a better contract.
Next, Backes did play a game where he ran around and ran people over, but those days are ending. Part of what made him so effective is that he was really physical, and that's where he is declining. He's weaker on his skates, and he doesn't throw many hard checks like he used to. He's gotten banged up a lot. You wouldn't know it because he plays through them, but logic tells you that this is going to take a toll on his body. It already has. You just can't beat up your body that much and not be affected by it.
Backes is a good player right now. But he's only been on average a 50-point player in his career (much less than some of the guys you listed in their prime) and that will likely dip in a few years. He only had 45 last year. If he becomes a 40-point player in the next few years, paying him $6 million will be terrible. Yes he can deflect pucks in front of the net and he's smart defensively, but his physical and offensive games declining would really limit his effectiveness. Chances are, it will happen.
As a Blues fan, he already looks very different than he did 2 years ago, pre-concussion from the Seabrook hit. I always go back to that because it's true. Just from using that simple eye test is why I think it's very likely he continues down that hill the next few years. He's a good player, but he really needs to find the right chemistry with linemates to really produce a lot. He had that in STL with Steen and Oshie. Others, not as much. Boston has some guys it seems like he'll be able to mesh with, but we'll see.
riverhawkey91
Registered User
I think one of the big things being overlooked when people talk of Backes' inevitable decline is the big drop in TOI he's about to get.
I'm sure he'll get PK time in Boston, and might see a bit of PP time, but he's probably looking at an ~2 minute drop of ATOI. Even with PK time, most Boston forwards barely hit 18 mins a game, and Backes has averaged 19+ the last 5 years. Hopefully that helps a bit to delay the decline.
I'm sure he'll get PK time in Boston, and might see a bit of PP time, but he's probably looking at an ~2 minute drop of ATOI. Even with PK time, most Boston forwards barely hit 18 mins a game, and Backes has averaged 19+ the last 5 years. Hopefully that helps a bit to delay the decline.
Eddie Munson
This year is my year. I can feel it. ‘86 baby!
- Jul 11, 2008
- 6,747
- 2,163
His career relative Corsi average is 0.7 and looking throughout his career his Corsi has gone back and forth season to season so it's hard to say when it's a regression or if it's just his normal eb and flow. Also you're ignoring his zone starts which started to shift far more heavily to the defensive zone starting in 14/15.
Harder to outshoot and supress more of your opponent shots when you start in the defensive zone almost 60% of the time.
His Corsi stats are far more indicative of his zone starts IMO than a statistical shift in his scoring, health or physicality due to age.
Yup, I mentioned this on the Bruins board. Krejci, Bergeron, and Backes can now all share the load so to speak, not having to depend on one guy doing the heavy minutes or all of the tough assignments. This will help prolong each player going forward.
Mr Positive
Cap Crunch Incoming
- Nov 20, 2013
- 38,084
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Backes was an absolute beast for St.Louis. It was weird seeing everyone saying how overrated he was and meanwhile he was scoring tons of goals, winning faceoffs, and bringing a lot of sandpaper. I was hoping the Oilers could sign him, although this contract is a bit much for the role I wanted for him.
I think people make too much of these 'bad' contracts. As long as the player is good it is not truly a bad contract as long as the cap is managed around it. All you need is one bargain deal and the pain is reduced.
I think people make too much of these 'bad' contracts. As long as the player is good it is not truly a bad contract as long as the cap is managed around it. All you need is one bargain deal and the pain is reduced.
- May 1, 2011
- 133,720
- 63,601
The term/cap hit on this contract is brutal, it makes the one Lucic got not look as bad.
2 fewer years than Lucic, 4 years older than Lucic, same cap hit. Why does the Lucic contract get so much more fire than this one?
I think if you're giving Backes 5 years, the AAV should be lower than this IMO.
And just for the record, I'm not comparing Lucic because I think Boston should have kept Lucic instead and not signed Backes. Boston did pretty well in the Lucic trade and pretty much turned Lucic into 2 first round picks, when you include the 1st they got for Jones.
It's just a comparable player in the same UFA class.
2 fewer years than Lucic, 4 years older than Lucic, same cap hit. Why does the Lucic contract get so much more fire than this one?
I think if you're giving Backes 5 years, the AAV should be lower than this IMO.
And just for the record, I'm not comparing Lucic because I think Boston should have kept Lucic instead and not signed Backes. Boston did pretty well in the Lucic trade and pretty much turned Lucic into 2 first round picks, when you include the 1st they got for Jones.
It's just a comparable player in the same UFA class.
Literally all of the guys you mentioned flourished in a much, much slower league. None of them would have been able to hack it with the way they played at 35 in the game today. I would know. Those names are players from what was the golden era of hockey for me.
- May 1, 2011
- 133,720
- 63,601
From one end though, David Clarkson was supposedly offered $6 million AAV by Columbus and Edmonton as a free agent 3 years ago and while he was 3 years younger than Backes is now, he only had two season's of even scoring 30 or more points before that. So Backes had a hell of a lot more of a track record on Clarkson.
But Clarkson's contract was one of the worst in the history of the game, and it would have probably been the single worst if he actually did get $6 million a year and signed with Columbus in the first place.
But Clarkson's contract was one of the worst in the history of the game, and it would have probably been the single worst if he actually did get $6 million a year and signed with Columbus in the first place.
WhalerTurnedBruin55
Fading out, thanks for the times.
- Oct 31, 2008
- 11,347
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I appreciate the optimism, but some of those guys were awful on their way out.
Backes signing and playing in Boston is absolutely moot unless Sweeney can upgrade the defense or at the very least get an appropriate stop gap until some of the prospects can step in.
Backes turned invisible by the time the Blues got to the WCF because he was too banged up to perform the way he usually does. St. Louis got lit up by players he would have been a key factor in shutting down to even have a chance of keeping that series competitive. He's already at the point in his career where he can give 100% but it will have consequences that haunt him the longer the season gets for him. It's good that he won't have to carry a line for Boston because he's going to need to learn to rest through some of those injuries instead of trying to be the hero.
I like this contract as a Leafs fan. $30MM Bruin-dollars for a declining second-tier player. Golden!
BostonBob
4 Ever The Greatest
And I guess as a Leafs fan you would be an expert on paying declining 2nd and 3rd tier players top dollar to help your team continually miss the Playoffs. Golden !!!!!
Luongos Knob
Daaaaa Nucks
- Jan 20, 2009
- 4,317
- 621
^ If I were a Bruins fan, Bob, I'd be a little touchy about this deal too.
No worries, though: nothing will ever match the Clarkson contract for sheer stupidity. It is unparalleled.
That said, I still like the deal for the same reasons.
No worries, though: nothing will ever match the Clarkson contract for sheer stupidity. It is unparalleled.
That said, I still like the deal for the same reasons.
7even
Offered and lost
BostonBob
4 Ever The Greatest
Most Bruin fans agree that we will love the deal for the first 2 seasons, be OK with it in the 3rd season, dislike it in the 4th season and hate it in the 5th season.
BruinLVGA
Next: CZ SP-01 Tactical!
Stop for a moment and think if there's anything that your team could be made fun of. You know that there's enough of that to probably bury you so deep that you would actually emerge on the other side of the planet, right? The list of things would extend beyond this galaxy's border. So just let it go, it's in your interest.
Alberta_OReilly_Fan
Bruin fan since 1975
most guys were aweful on their way out... most the names i mention left at 38-39-40. at 35-36-37 most were 30 goal scorers and playing in allstar games and olympic teams.
talent doesnt desert star players until their 40s... speed does... and the love of the game might... size doesnt
we see players that are small lose a step and disappear at 30ish. i think loui eriksson compares to a guy like jere lehtonen... to a guy like esa tikkanen... to a guy like pj axelson or jan erixon.
i try to find very smart very disciplined checking euros of the past that have success after age 31. its superhard to find names. jurri kurri didnt have a ton of success after 30.
does eriksson compare to teemu selanne or sergei federov? personally i dont put him in their raw skill class.
milan lucic is harder to find historical comparisons. but cam neely and eric lindros would both be better talents. clark gillies and terry oreilly might not have done it as steady? theres been heavy hitters without as much skill. i cant find any heavy hitters that thrive beyond age 30
does backes have to hit to thrive? from what ive seen id put him top 15 best defensive forward in nhl. most great defensive players are done well before 35... bob gainey... steve kasper... don marcotte... claude lemieux...
backes has good enough hands to be a 30 goal scorer. to me this is the key. big guys that can muscel their way to the net can play this game forever. the most successful 40 year olds are the big guys who control the puck.
people keep wanting to write off guys like jagr but if their love of the game gets them through the aches and pains of age these guys still have an advantage.
gary roberts can come back from broken neck... mario lemieux from cancer... ron francais can thrive at 40...even fat keith tkchuk can score 30 plus because size with hands is a huge advantage.
yes the game is faster and yes age slows you down but joe thornton still dominates because of size and hands. it still is a huge advantage and historically big guys with great hands age better than any other demographic if they avoid injuries
Alberta_OReilly_Fan
Bruin fan since 1975
Alberta_OReilly_Fan
Bruin fan since 1975
as a leaf fan i might feel dread having to watch a kid like matthews forced to eat one shift of bergeron followed up with a second shift of backes.
but hell even if i was the penguins and had to see crosby against bergeron and then malkin against backes id be pretty sick to the gut on that prospect too.
fans in the east better hope boston doesnt find a stud dman somehow the next couple seasons cause with rask in net and julien coaching its going to be dam hard to score against this team
I like Backes....but I think having him play wing may not be the best fit for him.... I do like him for Boston because Krecji had been hurt so many times in the last couple years but I think playing him on the wing may not be ideal for him...
I don't think he's going to be happy playing 3C with added PK or PP roles..
I don't think he's going to be happy playing 3C with added PK or PP roles..
You talk as if bruins and the pens are the only teams in the NHL with good centers lol...
You also talk as if backes is a monster improvement over Krecji and he's not.
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