Injury Report: Bobrovsky out 3 weeks. UPDATE: activated 1/15 2ND UPDATE: re-injured 1/22

EspenK

Registered User
Sep 25, 2011
15,842
4,446
Technically it's 3 coin flips.

Would our chances go up with teams being removed?

So say the *******s in EDM get 1st again, wouldn't our % go up for getting 2nd since there's one less team?

Yes it goes up each time but I think it depends on who wins #1. if the 2nd worse team wins then I think that the odds of winning #2 are better because more winning numbers are removed form the pot as opposed to if the 14th place team won.

Think of it this way - there is a pot with last place in there 20 times. 2nd place is in 13.5 times and number 14 team is in one time. Total teams in is 100. If team 2 wins then last place team's chances of winning next time are 20 in 86.5. If team #14 wins then chances are 20 out of 99. For third pick same approach.

So for many reasons if we finish last it is better to have #2 win than #14.

I don't believe nay of the cumulative odds that have been mentioned previously are correct because it will all depend on who wins in what order. Not a stats guy by any means but I think this is how it should work.

major? nordique? Bueller?
 

major major

Registered User
Feb 18, 2013
14,598
1,669
Yes it goes up each time but I think it depends on who wins #1. if the 2nd worse team wins then I think that the odds of winning #2 are better because more winning numbers are removed form the pot as opposed to if the 14th place team won.

Think of it this way - there is a pot with last place in there 20 times. 2nd place is in 13.5 times and number 14 team is in one time. Total teams in is 100. If team 2 wins then last place team's chances of winning next time are 20 in 86.5. If team #14 wins then chances are 20 out of 99. For third pick same approach.

So for many reasons if we finish last it is better to have #2 win than #14.

I don't believe nay of the cumulative odds that have been mentioned previously are correct because it will all depend on who wins in what order. Not a stats guy by any means but I think this is how it should work.

major? nordique? Bueller?

Good catch.

The probability in the second round should be very close to 20/90. Going into the draft as a whole, the last place team should have a 20/90*80 =(17.5%) chance of getting #2 overall. Third overall is 20/82*(20+17.5) ~(15%)

Sorry I'm too lazy to find the precise denominator, I don't know if it's 90 and then 82, but it should be very close, and the overall % chance of the last place team picking 4th should be just under 50%.
 

Mayor Bee

Registered User
Dec 29, 2008
18,087
535
Tell us more.

I've been doing research lately on ancient and medieval torture devices, not merely for my own amusement but also because I want to use several of them on people who feel a compelling need to interject into a conversation with some useless tidbit about their fantasy hockey team, their fantasy football team, or their unrelenting love of Bernie Sanders.
 

WannabeFinn

Beloved One
May 31, 2014
6,474
1,039
Columbus
simulationhockey.com
I've been doing research lately on ancient and medieval torture devices, not merely for my own amusement but also because I want to use several of them on people who feel a compelling need to interject into a conversation with some useless tidbit about their fantasy hockey team, their fantasy football team, or their unrelenting love of Bernie Sanders.
I wonder if those tortured might.. feel the Bern.
 

Viqsi

"that chick from Ohio"
Oct 5, 2007
55,777
35,417
40N 83W (approx)
I've been doing research lately on ancient and medieval torture devices, not merely for my own amusement but also because I want to use several of them on people who feel a compelling need to interject into a conversation with some useless tidbit about their fantasy hockey team, their fantasy football team, or their unrelenting love of Bernie Sanders.
There'll be a place in my staff for you when I take over the world.
 

EspenK

Registered User
Sep 25, 2011
15,842
4,446
I've been doing research lately on ancient and medieval torture devices, not merely for my own amusement but also because I want to use several of them on people who feel a compelling need to interject into a conversation with some useless tidbit about their fantasy hockey team, their fantasy football team, or their unrelenting love of Bernie Sanders.

Anything more than an old baseball story is definitely off limits.:sarcasm:

LET ME TELL YOU ABOUT THE TIME I HAD TED WILLIAMS HITTING 3RD ON MY FANTASY TEAM AND HE WAS ON ICE FOR A PULLED HAMMY OR SOME OTHER SISSY INJURY (NOT LIKE HE'S ON ICE NOW) DAMN NEAR RUINED MY SEASON. :laugh:
 

Viqsi

"that chick from Ohio"
Oct 5, 2007
55,777
35,417
40N 83W (approx)
Anything more than an old baseball story is definitely off limits.:sarcasm:

LET ME TELL YOU ABOUT THE TIME I HAD TED WILLIAMS HITTING 3RD ON MY FANTASY TEAM AND HE WAS ON ICE FOR A PULLED HAMMY OR SOME OTHER SISSY INJURY (NOT LIKE HE'S ON ICE NOW) DAMN NEAR RUINED MY SEASON. :laugh:
I am now completely consumed with the desire to see Don Cherry Discussing His Fantasy Baseball Team.
 

niflheim

Hockey is cheating
Nov 22, 2014
1,143
38
playoff push? Missing hot hugs? We needed this push at the beginning of season. After Joey trade in rebuild mode most right strategy is deep and total tanking. It's not joke as last season, it's question of franchise's survival:( Matthews is target number 1, not exit in first round.
 

KlichkoBro*

Guest
http://www.sport-express.ru/hockey/nhl/reviews/957357/
Reading the Bobrovsky's interview I realized that Russians are planning to use him at the World Championship in May and then at the World Cup. Considering his injury history I hope the Jackets would ban him from going there. That's no-brainer he has to rest his groin this off season or his contract should be terminated if he goes there and injures himself again.
 

EspenK

Registered User
Sep 25, 2011
15,842
4,446
http://www.sport-express.ru/hockey/nhl/reviews/957357/
Reading the Bobrovsky's interview I realized that Russians are planning to use him at the World Championship in May and then at the World Cup. Considering his injury history I hope the Jackets would ban him from going there. That's no-brainer he has to rest his groin this off season or his contract should be terminated if he goes there and injures himself again.

Definitely think he should skip May. Maybe the WC would help him get off to a faster start? But I wouldn't mind seeing him skip both.

Contractually I'm not sure they can "ban" him? Bueller?
 

KlichkoBro*

Guest
Maybe "ban" is a wrong word, but sounds like if the Jackets asked him not to go he would listen.
 

CBJWerenski8

Rest in Peace Johnny
Jun 13, 2009
43,701
26,750
I'd rather have Bob play. He's only been injured in NHL action, not representing his country.
 

EspenK

Registered User
Sep 25, 2011
15,842
4,446
I'd rather have Bob play. He's only been injured in NHL action, not representing his country.

That is a weird way to look at it. If he is susceptible to groin injuries rest would seem to be better than playing anywhere.
 

CBJWerenski8

Rest in Peace Johnny
Jun 13, 2009
43,701
26,750
That is a weird way to look at it. If he is susceptible to groin injuries rest would seem to be better than playing anywhere.

Yes, but he's missed alot of time this year. If we're going to be competitive next year we need him sharp. Only way to be sharp is to play.

I don't love the idea of him playing two tournaments before the season, maybe only one.
 

EspenK

Registered User
Sep 25, 2011
15,842
4,446
Yes, but he's missed alot of time this year. If we're going to be competitive next year we need him sharp. Only way to be sharp is to play.

I don't love the idea of him playing two tournaments before the season, maybe only one.


If i had to chose I'd say the Sept one because it would give more rest and be a jump start on camp.
 

Cyclones Rock

Registered User
Jun 12, 2008
10,914
7,077
http://www.sport-express.ru/hockey/nhl/reviews/957357/
Reading the Bobrovsky's interview I realized that Russians are planning to use him at the World Championship in May and then at the World Cup. Considering his injury history I hope the Jackets would ban him from going there. That's no-brainer he has to rest his groin this off season or his contract should be terminated if he goes there and injures himself again.

For Europeans, the WCs are Stanley Cup equivalent so I doubt that the team would suggest that he couldn't play. I also doubt that a standard NHL contract allows for that.

Given where Bob plays, I also think it would be cruel to deny him his only legitimate chance to win anything.
 

KlichkoBro*

Guest
Also Russia will host the WC. But I still think the front office should ask him to stay away from the tournament.
 

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