HF Habs: Bobby Mac Final 2024 Draft Ranking List - Tuesday 2024-06-25 - TSN5 - 11:00am EDT

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VirginiaMtlExpat

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I wasn't calling you or anyone here out specifically, we get the information given to us by the media, so my message was more for them.

The amount of public discourse surrounding this injury, doesn't seem to match what we're hearing from the player, agent and his medical reports.
As I mentioned above, it's easy for the player and agent to make a show of appearing to be transparent about the injury, but I find it difficult to believe that they shared the imaging data. Maybe I'm a critical thinker to a fault, but I'm also used to university students trying to pull the wool over my eyes, or academic writers making inflated claims.
 
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BehindTheTimes

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False. If Catton has J Hughes talent, he would be ranked top 3 on most lists. This is opinion driven and IMO, Iggy has skill like Catton and is more gritty. Catton is 12th on Bob's list. Even Sennecke is ahead of him now. If he had the skill you are talking about, he would have a much better ranking than that.

My opinion lines up with Bob's ranking more than your narrative.

Curious, what "other" qualities do you think Iggy has?
Where was Clayton Keller on Bob’s list? Where was Pierre Luc Dubois? Point being, these guys don’t get it right everytime. Picking a Lindstrom over a Catton would be very similar to passing on Keller for Pierre Luc Dubois.

Bob’s lists aren’t perfect and in no way does this prove that Catton has less talent than anybody.
 

Habs Halifax

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Where was Clayton Keller on Bob’s list? Where was Pierre Luc Dubois? Point being, these guys don’t get it right everytime. Picking a Lindstrom over a Catton would be very similar to passing on Keller for Pierre Luc Dubois.

Bob’s lists aren’t perfect and in no way does this prove that Catton has less talent than anybody.

Bob's list are not perfect but they are the most credible. I have my own opinion as well and it falls in line with Bob so this is my context/defense. You may not like it but who's problem is that?

Saying Catton has as much skill as Demidov is just an opinion. An opinion I don't agree with. If that was true, most ranking lists would have Catton in the top 3 or 5.

If Catton has the same skill as Demidov, so does Iggy.
 
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417

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As I mentioned above, it's easy for the player and agent to make a show of appearing to be transparent about the injury, but I find it difficult to believe that they shared the imaging data. Maybe I'm a critical thinker to a fault, but I'm also used to university students trying to pull the wool over my eyes, or academic writers making inflated claims.
But they provided medical reports, I doubt it's a doctor’s chicken scratch with a thumbs up.

I would assume a medical report would include imaging, otherwise its not a medical report.
 

VirginiaMtlExpat

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But they provided medical reports, I doubt it's a doctor’s chicken scratch with a thumbs up.

I would assume a medical report would include imaging, otherwise its not a medical report.
The report includes someone's interpretation of the imaging. Not the image itself, which is one or more volumetric images, depending on the MRI pulse sequence (T1-weighted, T2-weighted, and so on), which is typically hundreds of millions of voxels and would require a massive digital transfer to happen. This is not just a screenshot embedded in a pdf: the image is volumetric, and someone with something to hide can easily scroll 1-2 pixels away from the worst of the injury to show a 2D screenshot of what appears like a fairly benign disc.

This is where I express my lack of trust in the report. It's less than fully transparent, while appearing to be transparent. Let some independent team-appointed radiologists interpret that MRI dataset.
 
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Habs Halifax

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No he doesn’t.

Yes he does and he's substantially younger than Catton in this draft. I bet you are looking at the 116 pts vs the 84 in the WHL. How about comparing Catton's U18's last year to Iggy's this year?

There is a reason why Bob has Iggy 10th and Catton 12th. If your narrative was more accurate, Catton would be ranked top 5 on most list (yes, I'm repeating).

All you are saying is you think you know more than the scouts Bob interviewed.
 

Schooner Guy

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Hmmm...not sure about that, if his medicals had come back with negative information, i'm sure it would affect where he was ranked.
It will certainly affect where the team ends up ranking him but final team lists will be polished up this week. Teams in the top 10 will certainly be having discussions about the medical reports in these meetings. Not sure if that input made it to lists submitted to Bobby Mac from individual scouts. It's just like geo-political factors for Russians. It doesn't impact player evaluations developed by scouts but impacts teams final lists when team execs get involved.
 
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Habs Halifax

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Hmmm...not sure about that, if his medicals had come back with negative information, i'm sure it would affect where he was ranked.

Not sure about this part. NHL teams would have those reports but does even Bob and his scouts have it? Maybe, not sure.

The true indicator on this will be where Lindstrom is picked vs where most have him ranked. That will tell us how many teams are scared by evaluating the medical report.

The other layer to this is how accurate and confident are the doctors? How would anybody know if future problems come back or not? Medical reports will show something but it's not a future predictor.
 

417

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The report includes someone's interpretation of the imaging. Not the image itself, which is one or more volumetric images, depending on the MRI pulse sequence (T1-weighted, T2-weighted, and so on), which is typically hundreds of millions of voxels and would require a massive digital transfer to happen. This is not just a screenshot embedded in a pdf: the image is volumetric, and someone with something to hide can easily scroll 1-2 pixels away from the worst of the injury to show a 2D screenshot of what appears like a fairly benign disc.

This is where I express my lack of trust in the report. It's less than fully transparent, while appearing to be transparent. Let some independent team-appointed radiologists interpret that MRI dataset.
Asking you, because you seem to know what you're talking about...but wouldn't teams do just this with that report?
 

BLONG7

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Yes he does and he's substantially younger than Catton in this draft. I bet you are looking at the 116 pts vs the 84 in the WHL. How about comparing Catton's U18's last year to Iggy's this year?

There is a reason why Bob has Iggy 10th and Catton 12th. If your narrative was more accurate, Catton would be ranked top 5 on most list (yes, I'm repeating).

All you are saying is you think you know more than the scouts Bob interviewed.
I think all we have heard, says that 2-15 are an absolute toss up depending on who you ask...........which is crazy, but there does seem to be a ton of chatter about a lot of the kids.

Bob Mac always seems to have the most credibility when doing these lists.............that said he can make mistakes too............
 
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Habs Halifax

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I agree 100%. Lindstrom is a Chris Kreider to me, minus the elite deflection ability. Good pick, but not a 5OA.

I would rather have Catton carrying the puck heads up through the neutral zone like Jack Hughes does, prepared to create plays. I like Demidov's creativity as well.

The issue I have is how do the drafting/scout evaluations vary on who you ask. Catton has a lot of points but then you look at his U18's compared to Iggy and it doesn't measure up to what Iggy did. Was there more opportunity or was Catton affected a bit with more competition and less/time space? Because what I have learned over the years, CHL production can be flawed and fool you. When I watch the highlight videos, I focus on D coverage, D breakdowns, and how much open space there is. I also look for puck battles and how the player overcomes traffic in front of the net and along the boards. A lot of prospects shine in junior but really struggle when they turn pro. The game gets faster and there is not much time/space. Not saying this happens to Catton for sure but it's something to consider. 5'-11" and 174 lbs. Is his skating elite enough to overcome other NHL players that also skate well? Because he's certainly not overpowering NHL players but he can in junior.

I like Catton but I do think his ranking is accurate. 8-12 range on most lists. What are the reasons why he is not ranked top 5 or top 7 on most lists you see? That context should be looked into.

I'd be all over Lindstrom with no injury and a U18's to evaluate. It's a scary pick for me. Could make you look like a genius or a dummy.
 

VirginiaMtlExpat

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Asking you, because you seem to know what you're talking about...but wouldn't teams do just this with that report?
It depends on how critically they think. Some of these teams (like most people) place great faith in physicians, but are not detail-oriented enough to ask: are we being gaslit here?

The physicians in this forum almost uniformly argue that this injury could be significant long-term and many view him as DND. I'm not quite at DND, but much depends on those details: do they release the MRI dataset to whichever team asks for it? If not, they have something to hide. If no one really asks, we'll not know until the player is drafted and playing at a high level.

Or, they may view it as treatable, Eichel-style (minimally invasive artificial disc replacement - ADR), no matter what. He may be treatable, but as I mentioned, in the lumbar area it's not a 2-foot putt, because of the forces involved there, compared to the cervical (i.e. Eichel) and thoracic areas, as shown in the figure that I embedded in one of my posts. I would certainly consider him as a mid-to-late first round lottery ticket, but I personally like Catton and maybe Iginla more at 5, and maybe even some of the stratospheric defensemen (it pains me to admit), if we can trade one of our spare Ds for a high-level forward.
 
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417

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Not sure about this part. NHL teams would have those reports but does even Bob and his scouts have it? Maybe, not sure.

The true indicator on this will be where Lindstrom is picked vs where most have him ranked. That will tell us how many teams are scared by evaluating the medical report.

The other layer to this is how accurate and confident are the doctors? How would anybody know if future problems come back or not? Medical reports will show something but it's not a future predictor.
Exactly...so if the medical reports say he's good and it's nothing major, you either trust your own medical doctors to back that up, or you don't.

But my point was more about how many people are acting like he got Larry Bird's back.
 

26Mats

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I think all we have heard, says that 2-15 are an absolute toss up depending on who you ask...........which is crazy, but there does seem to be a ton of chatter about a lot of the kids.

Bob Mac always seems to have the most credibility when doing these lists.............that said he can make mistakes too............
Bobby Mac makes his lists purely based on what scouts and managemnet of NHL teams tell him. Zero of his own analysis goes into his lists.

It would be interesting to do a thorought analysis of his list versus other media lists like Buton's, Snake's, Pronman's, etc... It would be interesting to see them in comparison to a redraft 10 years later as well as the actually order the players go in on draft day. Mackenzie's list has been accurate predicting 1st overall. But that's not really difficult. Not sure how they do in redrafts 10 years later.
 
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It depends on how critically they think. Some of these teams (like most people) place great faith in physicians, but are not detail-oriented enough to ask: are we being gaslit here?
Given the stakes, i'd be absolutely shocked if whatever report they were provided with, wasn't then vetted through each teams sources, especially the teams picking in the top 10.
The physicians in this forum almost uniformly argue that this injury could be significant long-term and many view him as DND. I'm not quite at DND, but much depends on those details: do they release the MRI dataset to whichever team asks for it? If not, they have something to hide. If no one really asks, we'll not know until the player is drafted and playing at a high level.

Or, they may view it as treatable, Eichel-style (minimally invasive artificial disc replacement - ADR), no matter what. He may be treatable, but as I mentioned, in the lumbar area it's not a 2-foot putt, because of the forces involved there, compared to the cervical (i.e. Eichel) and thoracic areas, as shown in the figure that I embedded in one of my posts. I would certainly consider him as a mid-to-late first round lottery ticket, but I personally like Catton and maybe Iginla more at 5, and maybe even some of the stratospheric defensemen (it pains me to admit), if we can trade one of our spare Ds for a high-level forward.
But how can they know the severity of it? Not every back injury is the same...I had sciatic issues 4 years ago, it was so bad one morning I debated taking a leak in my bed because trying to peel myself off my bed to walk to the bathroom was too painful (I did it btw lol).

After about 6 months of treatment, I started feeling better and haven't had any setbacks since. I've been able to play basketball again no issues.

Of course,, i'm not playing elite sprots and i'm not suggesting that my experience is the litmus test...but it's just to illustrate that back injuries aren't all the same and actually, from what I've been told, it's much easier for a younger player to recover from then it is when you get older.
 

BLONG7

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The Lindstrom discourse is so annoying.

The easiest position to take is just rank the player and accept you have no idea about the medical and leave it out of the equation.

If he falls we know why.
If he doesn't we know that team didn't feel it was an issue.
I think the kid did very well at the combine..........so he was more than fine there.
 

Habs Halifax

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I think all we have heard, says that 2-15 are an absolute toss up depending on who you ask...........which is crazy, but there does seem to be a ton of chatter about a lot of the kids.

Bob Mac always seems to have the most credibility when doing these lists.............that said he can make mistakes too............

Basically it's a popular list Bob creates and he usually gets the most amount of 1st rounders on his list vs others. Yes, it's not a exact sure shot hit lists. If if was that easy, teams would not be picking busts.

The point here is reaching with an opinion. Bob has him 12th and Demidov is 2nd. Saying they have similar skill is a reach because if actual NHL scouts thought that, the ranking would not be spread out like that... even after considering the 2-14 range being unpredictable.

If Catton had a dynamic U18's and more weight to his frame, I'd by into this reach. I'm reaching a bit when I have Iggy close to Demidov and I'm not shy to admit it. But what I like with Iggy is the production is there as well as the U18's. And he has solid weight to his frame at that young age. I see a massive break out next year which is his age 18 season. An age 18 season Catton just played. Actually 17/18 (Jan birthdate).

Exactly...so if the medical reports say he's good and it's nothing major, you either trust your own medical doctors to back that up, or you don't.

But my point was more about how many people are acting like he got Larry Bird's back.

Well, it is the 5th OA pick in a deep draft. If we end up taking a guy who has back issues that become chronic in the future, it's a major miss for the organization. All the medical reports will show you is how it looks today. Predicting what happens in the future is guess work. And then you look at his style of play and how the NHL is very demanding, you do wonder.

Look into the N Patrick situation. I recall many fans/media trying to justify him being healthy. Not saying it turns into that but it's not something that we can brush under the rug.
 
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VirginiaMtlExpat

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But how can they know the severity of it? Not every back injury is the same...I had sciatic issues 4 years ago, it was so bad one morning I debated taking a leak in my bed because trying to peel myself off my bed to walk to the bathroom was too painful (I did it btw lol).
They may not, but a herniated disk tends to spill out, like really a disc-shaped elastic container (annulus fibrosis) of thick molasses (nucleus pulposus), and while it may stabilize and heal to a significant degree, the tear in it can (more) easily reinjure, since it does not have the integrity of the uninjured disc (which is why Eichel's surgeons threw in the towel and gave him a synthetic one). In a contact sport, that gradual degradation of the disc has a higher probability of happening again than it would in a pristine disc, so that the hole in the elastic container can reopen again, spilling thick molasses onto that sciatic nerve.
Lumbar Disc Herniation
1719419075134.png
 

Habs Halifax

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Better international numbers? What?

The only time they've played at the same level at the same time internationally was last year, where Catton outscored Iginla at the U17s.

Catton's age 17/18 season was this season (Jan birthdate). Iggy's age 17 season was this season (Aug Birthdate). There is a 8 month age difference. Iginla was 1.5 months away from being in next years draft bud. You can't ignore these things or try to spin it. These are facts.

Yeah, same time internationally at the U17's but one was more mature in age than the other and probably got more usage/ice time. Is there anywhere we can see what their ice time was?

Catton's U18's (22/23):
* 4 pts with 1 goal in 7 games

Iggy's U18's (23/24):
* 13 pts with 6 goals in 7 games.

This is not about who they are today, this is about who they are from age 20+. I'd also value the U18's over the U17's.

At the end of the day, these two are close. This debate or conversation was about someone saying Catton has Demidov's skill. If that is true, so does Iggy.
 
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Habs Halifax

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I think the kid did very well at the combine..........so he was more than fine there.

I'm assuming you are talking about Lindstrom?

I believe he has recovered and he did play in the playoffs right? The question here is will it become chronic in the future? Nobody knows the answer to this.

Interesting.................did not realize this is how he gets his lists...if he doesn't make mistakes, then he is also never right.

Most accurate and credible but never perfect. It's like the weather forecast, if you are 50% right, you get a raise.
 
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