Bob McKenzie's Top 75 rankings for 2010

[Madic]

Fun read as usual, love that he's doing up to 75 now. I always dig that he does a consensus list, and the presentation/blurbs are always fantastic.

It'll be fun to see where Bennett goes. One of those high risk/reward type players that most of us haven't seen play.

 

[Qvist]

With each passing year, more and more NHL teams are expressing reservations if not all out rejection of drafting Russian players because of the uncertainty of when or if they'll come to the NHL or whether they'll return to the KHL and Russia the first time they hit a bump in the road in North America. There are more than a few NHL teams who are going into the 2010 entry draft with an unwritten policy of NOT drafting any Russian players no matter what.

"We just can't afford to take the chance on them not coming or leaving once they get here," one scout said. "They're just not a consideration for us at all right now." :

That's just so incredibly stupid and unbelievably irrational.

"Can't afford to take the chance"? Hello guys, you spend most your picks on players who have, at most, a 10% probability of ever getting near the NHL. And you're so worried about a largely theoretical risk of a prospect not signing that you have a policy of not drafting any russian players no matter what? Okay, if you're picking 5th overall and have lots of good options, it's a factor. But it's a factor like lots of other things are factors, and to just blanket not draft russians?

I suppose this is the logic that made NHL teams feel they had better options than Pavel Bure with their 6th round picks. But fools never learn, and while the NHL is full of bright people, it is also strangely prone to these bouts of herd-like idiocy. Strong words, I know, but this is just too silly and I use them advisedly.

 

[DuklaNation]

Not really that surprised to see Johansen at #6. The potential is just too great to be ignored over these other guys. Looks like Spezza-lite to me.

 

[txomisc]

Justin Faulk starting to get some first round talk. I like him a lot, probably more so than his more highly-touted teammate Derek Forbort.

I had a pipe dream of Dallas going 11- Forbort 41- Faulk 71- Knight. The Forbort and Knight seem reasonable (although i doubt Knight really lasts that long) but Faulk at 41 seems like a distant memory.

 

[Levitate]

That's just so incredibly stupid and unbelievably irrational.

"Can't afford to take the chance"? Hello guys, you spend most your picks on players who have, at most, a 10% probability of ever getting near the NHL. And you're so worried that about a largely theoretical risk of a prospect not signing that you have a policy of not drafting any russian players no matter what? Okay, if you're picking 5th overall and have lots of good options, it's a factor. But it's a factor like lots of other things are factors, and to just blanket not draft russians?

I suppose this is the logic that made NHL teams feel they had better options than Pavel Bure with their 7th round picks. But fools never learn, and while the NHL is full of bright people, it is also strangely prone to these bouts of herd-like idiocy. Strong words, I know, but this is just too silly and I use them advisedly.

Just kind of BSing, but I think there are some teams that don't have great Russian scouts or great connections to Russia, so they're much more uncertain about taking these players than a team like the Rangers who spend the time and effort and money to get the whole picture.

I could be totally wrong, but that's my sense of the situation. And I'm sure teams will also say "there are so many good North American prospects why risk drafting Russian if you're not sure"

 

[Qvist]

Just kind of BSing, but I think there are some teams that don't have great Russian scouts or great connections to Russia, so they're much more uncertain about taking these players than a team like the Rangers who spend the time and effort and money to get the whole picture.

I could be totally wrong, but that's my sense of the situation. And I'm sure teams will also say "there are so many good North American prospects why risk drafting Russian if you're not sure"

Well, that'd be a different cup of tea. That's not the situation the above quote describes though.

 

[Levitate]

I do agree it's stupid and maybe that scout was talking out of his ass and not telling the whole truth

 

[Qvist]

I do agree it's stupid and maybe that scout was talking out of his ass and not telling the whole truth

I sure hope so....

 

[LoveHateLeafs]

Anyone else surprised by how low Weal is in this ranking? He's lower here than pretty much everywhere else. Maybe the Leafs can finagle a second round pick and grab him.

 

[BobMckenzie]

McKenzie polls his scouting contacts, so it's not that he personally thinks a certain player isn't worthy of a higher ranking. That's just the composite ranking of the various scouts/contacts that he uses.

But as the draft goes further outside the top prospects, a composite ranking won't necessarily be as accurate. Ie, if five scouts have Player X as a 3rd rounder and one scout has him as a 2nd rounder, he'll end up on McKenzie's list as a 3rd rounder. But the team that has the player ranked as a 2nd rounder may very well take him in round 2. All it takes is one team to like a player a little more than the 'consensus.'

Give that man a cigar. Couldn't have said it any better myself. The numbers are the numbers. I try not to get very subjective at all, just let the numbers speak for themselves.

I've got nothing against Jared Knight but nine of 10 scouts I talked to didn't have him in their top 60. He's obviously a great story, what with the diabetes and the goal totals and the youtube workout video and he could easily go in the second round.

Historically, the first round of our rankings have been gold (27 of 30 ifirst rounders in each of the last two years have actually been first rounders on draft day. It was as low as 23 in 2005 and this year could be quite volatile because there seem to be a lot of variables this year.

But I would suggest all bets are off in the second round as far as a great batting average. I don't even know how many guys who have been unranked on the TSN list in the past who have been taken in the second round but I'll bet it's a considerable number.

I don't know Jared Knight at all but I would be thrilled for him, like I'd be thrilled for any kid, to get drafted. Don't know if that helps but the bottom line is that it's a numbers driven exercise and as Brodeur correctly pointed out, it only ever takes one team. Just one team. Thanks.

Bob McKenzie.

 

[nanzenkills]

TSN does not do a scouting report they(Bob) talk to scouts and orgs and get an idea of what there lists look like and combine them to make this list. The blurbs are taken from Various scouting services like Central Scouting,ISS and Redline. Maybe you should pay for a guide if you want to see that kind of stuff

I think what he is disappointed about is that there is no "The Insider Says" section on the prospects ranked lower than 30 this year. In past years of this ranking, IIRC, all ranked prospects and even the honorable mentions had this section so readers could learn about a little bit about them beyond just their stats.

 

[Hossa]

A bit surprised Brandon Archibald didn't even crack the Honourable Mentions.

 

[Smarty]

Anyone else surprised by how low Weal is in this ranking? He's lower here than pretty much everywhere else. Maybe the Leafs can finagle a second round pick and grab him.

Very disappointed, not sure how Weal can be dropping with such a great few years, excellent U18 tournaments etc. While other kids do poorly and move up? Very strange, but if this is the way it goes some team is going to get a first round calibre player pretty low. Same as WHL draft he went 4th round within a year everyone said he would go top 5 if draft happened a year later. I have a feeling history will repeat itself. Not sure why Weal gets overlooked, must have something to do with his style of play. He is not the type that goes end to end or make Ovi like moves. Weal is sneaky, smart and very talented and puts up numbers consistantly and quietly. Thats all I can think of, it doesn't really add up????

 

[DuklaNation]

Isnt Weal just too small?

 

[Smarty]

Isnt Weal just too small?

No he's the same height as Schwartz and Granlund within .5 inch, but about 15 lbs lighter, which in my books would give him a higher ceiling. IMO

Granlund gets the nod, as he played against the best competition, but Weal played against much better competition than Schwartz and didn't get 30 min. of ice time a game. Don't get me wrong, I thing they should all be ranked in the mid to late first round.

 

[Rally Donkey]

Give that man a cigar. Couldn't have said it any better myself. The numbers are the numbers. I try not to get very subjective at all, just let the numbers speak for themselves.

I've got nothing against Jared Knight but nine of 10 scouts I talked to didn't have him in their top 60. He's obviously a great story, what with the diabetes and the goal totals and the youtube workout video and he could easily go in the second round.

Historically, the first round of our rankings have been gold (27 of 30 ifirst rounders in each of the last two years have actually been first rounders on draft day. It was as low as 23 in 2005 and this year could be quite volatile because there seem to be a lot of variables this year.

But I would suggest all bets are off in the second round as far as a great batting average. I don't even know how many guys who have been unranked on the TSN list in the past who have been taken in the second round but I'll bet it's a considerable number.

I don't know Jared Knight at all but I would be thrilled for him, like I'd be thrilled for any kid, to get drafted. Don't know if that helps but the bottom line is that it's a numbers driven exercise and as Brodeur correctly pointed out, it only ever takes one team. Just one team. Thanks.

Bob McKenzie.

Hurray!! Are we going to see the next 75 before Friday?

 

[AvalancheRy]

It is really starting to sound like Jack Campbell is a truely great goaltending prospect. I have gone from reluctance to hoping beyond hope that he falls to the Avs.

I am kinda suprised Etem has fallen a little bit. For a while there it seemed like he wouldn't fall past Anahiem at 12.

 

[LoveHateLeafs]

Isnt Weal just too small?

He's no smaller than Tyler Ennis was when he was drafted.

 

[Brodeur]

It is really starting to sound like Jack Campbell is a truely great goaltending prospect. I have gone from reluctance to hoping beyond hope that he falls to the Avs.

I am kinda suprised Etem has fallen a little bit. For a while there it seemed like he wouldn't fall past Anahiem at 12.

I don't think Etem's "fallen" per se. Most have considered him in the 10-20 range all season. Just by TSN's list, he was #15 at mideason, #17 in their final. The Ducks took Jake Gardiner #17 in 2008 and Peter Holland #13 in 2009 when most had them ranked lower. So it's not exactly the strangest possibility that they still would consider him there.

(On a side note, Etem grew up a Kings fan and joked about how he lived closer to Anaheim but never went to a Ducks game growing up.)

Give that man a cigar.

I'm not much of a smoker, but I would take an upgrade on my seats in the nosebleeds for the Draft

In all seriousness, if anything, we all owe you a cigar.

[/brown nosing]

 

[xIsle]

Jared Knight is now in the "Honorable mention" list.

 

[canucks20]

How is Stephen Silas not on that list at all?

 

[DuklaNation]

He's no smaller than Tyler Ennis was when he was drafted.

True but Ennis is very quick. The road to the NHL has seen a lot of small players never make an impact primarily because of their size. This line of argument is absurd in the face of the statistical realities.

 

[Madic]

How is Stephen Silas not on that list at all?

I should think the answer is fairly obvious, given the nature of the list.

 

[Smarty]

True but Ennis is very quick. The road to the NHL has seen a lot of small players never make an impact primarily because of their size. This line of argument is absurd in the face of the statistical realities.

Do you really want to compare statistical reality because Weal's stats crush Ennis's when you compare by age. Not even close. Weal is also very quick.

 

[arsmaster*]

Smarty,

I like Weal too, but either your his dad, his agent, or BFF because all you ever do is post about him.

Size is a factor, Eberle is a factor.....being ranked in the top 50 is nothing to shake a stick at, for his sake if he is picked late 2nd maybe he uses it as motivation.


There are only 30 first round spots????

Obviously if he is 6' he is top 20, but that isnt the case so the jury will be out on him.