Bob McKenzie's mid-season draft rankings: Schaefer the unanimous #1

[jtechkid]

I think the big issue this looks like a really weak draft . The narrative has been it’s really top heavy up to 6-8 then falls off a cliff . However , you got number one pick who hasn’t really played lot of games ( when has that happen ) , number 2 is small guy that’s not really lightning up college hockey but he is really solid than you got Martone who has not great pace , lot of scouts are fading on him as he disappears a lot in games . When’s last time a number 1 kid with this limited number of games went first ? Draft is getting weaker and weaker lol .Schaefer going number one because of default because nobody looks great so go with the guy with limited views lol - On defense after Schaefer it falls off a cliff tells you how weak draft is on defense .

 

[MTU34]

I know I’m late to the party but I’m an American who has Schaefer at 1.

I also happen to be a huge Hagens guy too. I just like Schaefer more.

I’m assuming I’ll be told to change my citizenship so anyone know where I can take care of that?

 

[1Gold Standard]

Schaefer is a legit 1OA pick...a little surprising it is unanimous among the scouts Farmer Bob is polling...but whatever..,

keep on keeping on, I suppose.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I know I’m late to the party but I’m an American who has Schaefer at 1.

I also happen to be a huge Hagens guy too. I just like Schaefer more.

I’m assuming I’ll be told to change my citizenship so anyone know where I can take care of that?

ICE agents are on their way

 

[jtechkid]

I know I’m late to the party but I’m an American who has Schaefer at 1.

I also happen to be a huge Hagens guy too. I just like Schaefer more.

I’m assuming I’ll be told to change my citizenship so anyone know where I can take care of that?

I’m from USA and I have Schaefer number one even with limited views this year mainly because I don’t trust or see same upside on Hagens - Misa and Martone has completely left the top 3 . When’s last time or ever the number one pick missed most of the season ?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Are you ESL? Those two things are in no way linked. Do you have a comprehensive list of adjectives that one can't use unemotionally?

You literally just said your opinion is the law. I don’t know how you can say that you are being a neutral arbiter.

And on track to be the 28th highest U19 NCAA PPG over that same stretch. He's not having a Celebrini/Eichel level draft year. If he was you might have some grounds for the outrage, but he's not.

Okay, and you deliberately chose the slant you did to compare him to players who are a draft older than him.

Besides, there’s no “well, if you don’t hit this scoring metric, then you are worse than that player” to analyzing players. If it worked that way, Fantilli would be better than Eichel and Celebrini.

Luckily, there’s this thing called watching the games. You wouldn’t find many who believe Fantilli is on a different tier from Hagens. Believe it or not, there’s context behind isolated scoring numbers. That’s also why Parekh scores above Schaefer and will get drafted much lower. Yes, scoring is important, but when you think you can just take out a spreadsheet the best players instead of watching the games, you get flawed conclusions. And obviously there’s more to an analysis of the best players in a draft than isolated scoring numbers from half a season.

 

[FLAMESFAN]

You literally just said your opinion is the law. I don’t know how you can say that you are being a neutral arbiter.

Okay, and you deliberately chose the slant you did to compare him to players who are a draft older than him.

Besides, there’s no “well, if you don’t hit this scoring metric, then you are worse than that player” to analyzing players. If it worked that way, Fantilli would be better than Eichel and Celebrini.

Luckily, there’s this thing called watching the games. You wouldn’t find many who believe Fantilli is on a different tier from Hagens. Believe it or not, there’s context behind isolated scoring numbers. That’s also why Parekh scores above Schaefer and will get drafted much lower. Yes, scoring is important, but when you think you can just take out a spreadsheet the best players instead of watching the games, you get flawed conclusions. And obviously there’s more to an analysis of the best players in a draft than isolated scoring numbers from half a season.

I think most would take Fantilli over Hagens. Would be close at least.

 

[4thline]

Okay, and you deliberately chose the slant you did to compare him to players who are a draft older than him.

Drafts don't define age, age and development paths do. He's playing a normal u19 freshman season, after aging out of the USNDP, playing two years with his age peers

Does the whole "context and viewings trump EP scouting" argument apply to scouts opinions of a very projectable 1D, or does a defensemans u17 points per game tell the whole story?

He's not Celebrini, he's not Eichel. He's another Smith/Leonard/Cooley, with strong arguments to be made that he's not the best of the group.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Drafts don't define age, age and development paths do. He's playing a normal u19 freshman season, after aging out of the USNDP, playing two years with his age peers

The only clean way to compare is to compare late birthdays to late birthdays and early birthdays to early birthdays.

Does the whole "context and viewings trump EP scouting" argument apply to scouts opinions of a very projectable 1D, or does a defensemans u17 points per game tell the whole story?

He's not Celebrini, he's not Eichel. He's another Smith/Leonard/Cooley, with strong arguments to be made that he's not the best of the group.

You are showing your slant. You could’ve just admitted it upfront. Excuses for Schaefer. Comparing Hagens to players nobody with any acumen in assessing these players would suggest are comparable to him.

And for all your EP usage to find these conclusions, you left out all the other statistical data available!

Almost like you might have a slant to all of this.

 

[4thline]

The only clean way to compare is to compare late birthdays to late birthdays and early birthdays to early birthdays.

There's nothing clean about any of this, it's all incredibly messing. But pretending players that have developed with their birth year cohort and followed the standard development path are suddenly younger than they are is a great way to overestimate their performance. Its useless for pvp comparison, but a big part of properly contextualizing their performance historically.


My "slant" was pointing out the hypocrisy and holes. His production cant be compared to Celebrini and Eichel because reasons. The majority of his draft year doesnt matter, but the other guys d-1 tells the whole story. He cant be compared to other recent USNDP grads who went to the NCAA for reasons. He's special dammit, and anyone that disagrees is part of a global conspiracy to discredit USA hockey, to the detriment of their careers and organizational success. It cant possibly be that one random internet poster overvalues him. Occam's razor? No thanks I prefer gillette.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

But pretending players that have developed with their birth year cohort and followed the standard development path are suddenly younger than they are is a great way to overestimate their performance. It’s useless for pvp comparison, but a big part of properly contextualizing their performance historically.


My "slant" was pointing out the hypocrisy and holes. His production cant be compared to Celebrini and Eichel because reasons. The majority of his draft year doesnt matter, but the other guys d-1 tells the whole story. He cant be compared to other recent USNDP grads who went to the NCAA for reasons. He's special dammit, and anyone that disagrees is part of a global conspiracy to discredit USA hockey, to the detriment of their careers and organizational success. It cant possibly be that one random internet poster overvalues him. Occam's razor? No thanks I prefer gillette.

Except nobody ever said to not compare him to other players or that his draft season doesn’t matter.

You said your opinion is inarguable and tried to play neutral arbiter before you actually inserted excuses into the discussion for a separate player. I guess excuses for Hagens won’t apply though. Wouldn’t a neutral person apply them for both?

There's nothing clean about any of this, it's all incredibly messing.

This is about the only thing we agree about.

The draft season composes more than play through late January. The season has numerous months left. The World Juniors occurred. There’s a World U18’s. There are prior seasons to consider in this. There’s a lot of pieces to this puzzle.

Yet somehow, Schaefer is a unanimous 1OA. The NHL scouts McKenzie quoted said there’s nothing that could possibly change the outcome. Almost like that’s not really how it should work, and maybe it’s all a little fishy how all of this has occurred.