Bob McKenzie's mid-season draft rankings: Schaefer the unanimous #1

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Nonsense.

The last guy who wasn't Canadian who went 1st was Slafkovsky, and by the season's end, he was 1st in McKenzie's rankings, not Wright.

I was here at that time. The majority of people (including Canadians) were hugely onboard with that Wright was the best player and that he was being over scouted. It was absolutely wild reading these discussions. Very accusatory and back and forth. Some of the most heated debates from any recent draft I can remember surrounding 1OA. It was not an easy process for Wright to let go of 1OA, and it didn't happen until the very end when it became known that he wasn't going to go 1OA, and may not even go 2OA or 3OA.

 

[landy92mack29]

Nonsense.

The last guy who wasn't Canadian who went 1st was Slafkovsky, and by the season's end, he was 1st in McKenzie's rankings, not Wright.

Canadians are already manufacturing McKenna for 26 and Dupont for 27 so tough times ahead....don't look at 2016-2019 drafts though.

 

[WarriorofTime]

I was here at that time. The majority of people (including Canadians) were hugely onboard with that Wright was the best player and that he was being over scouted. It was absolutely wild reading these discussions. Very accusatory and back and forth. Some of the most heated debates from any recent draft I can remember surrounding 1OA. It was not an easy process for Wright to let go of 1OA, and it didn't happen until the very end when it became known that he wasn't going to go 1OA, and may not even go 2OA or 3OA.

That's just because the Habs had the first pick and their fanbase is huge.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Canadians are already manufacturing McKenna for 26 and Dupont for 27 so tough times ahead....don't look at 2016-2019 drafts though.

But I thought a smallish, skill forward can't be picked first overall? Shouldn't the player that goes 1OA be a bigger player that can eat minutes or something? I'll hold you guys to this standard for next year.

 

[landy92mack29]

But I thought a smallish, skill forward can't be picked first overall? Shouldn't the player that goes 1OA be a bigger player that can eat minutes or something? I'll hold you guys to this standard for next year.

yeah J Hughes and Bedard definitely didn't happen, McKenna isn't that small though. Verhoeff will give him a run though

 

[wetcoast]

Nolan Patrick was never a consensus 1st overall pick, like ever. He was always seen to potentially challenge 1st overall and be a safe top 5 pick. He was always super overrated though, never liked him not because of zero talent but because I saw a player more around 6 to 10 than being top 5 level.

Wright was super hyped to be 1st overall, but that's because he played in the CHL and OHL of all places. When you include the words of talent and OHL, there is a huge circlejerk that happens. NHL teams were smart not to select him in the top 3.

The majority of NHL scouts live and work around the CHL, especially the OHL, so it is not a surprise that Schaefer is 1st overall even though he doesn't belong there. If Hagens was in the OHL, he would clearly be 1OA. This doesn't mean Schaefer sucks because he doesn't, but people are labelling him Scott Neidermayer 2.0 and that's awful to do to the poor lad because no way he comes close to that level from what I have watched.

Frankly I think Schaefer will be better than Nieds out of the gate and at his peak you are getting a peak Nieds IMO in terms of value to whatever team picks him.

 

[TheDoldrums]

And this stuff doesn’t even pass basic scrutiny. So Hagens ends up one of the best players at the World Juniors and the 1C for the Gold Medal Winners yet his stock goes down relative to a guy who played 1.5 games? That makes no sense.

The NHL scouts that McKenzie quotes claim there is absolutely nothing anyone could do. They’ve decided Schaefer is the guy. 17 games in junior hockey is all they need to see, even though for years he’s been outplayed by the competition. But they think he’s been so amazing in these 17 games.

It’s not logical, but it doesn’t need to be logical. It’s a fixed outcome. The decision makers are literally spelling that out for us.

The logic is that scouts project Schaefer to have the better NHL career compared to Hagens. You keep on harping on the small sample size of 1.5 WJC games or 17 junior games. That does not preclude scouts from seeing a better pro for the next decade.

In basketball, Kyrie Irving played 9 games for Duke before getting hurt. He played a couple of NCAA tournament games at the end of the season. Still went #1 overall in the NBA draft.

Some of your posts make it seem like Schaefer has to hit a certain amount of games played or statistical benchmark to earn the 1st overall, when that’s not the case. Scouts are going to recommend the player they think will be the best over the next decade and if you only have a small sample size of viewing in their draft year, sometimes that’s enough.

 

[WarriorofTime]

I agree, first overall isn't about a resume contest... although that stuff is good and it seems like Schaefer is being sold a bit short.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Dude you had Charlie Stramel ahead of Adam Fantilii for ages. You had Turcotte in the top 2. Every year it seems you overrate at least one American prospect.

Your lack of self awareness in this thread is impressive.

I’ve learnt most of the time to just move on to the next post now, it’s become a meme now, with all the gatekeeping.

 

[Rare Jewel]

I was here at that time. The majority of people (including Canadians) were hugely onboard with that Wright was the best player and that he was being over scouted. It was absolutely wild reading these discussions. Very accusatory and back and forth. Some of the most heated debates from any recent draft I can remember surrounding 1OA. It was not an easy process for Wright to let go of 1OA, and it didn't happen until the very end when it became known that he wasn't going to go 1OA, and may not even go 2OA or 3OA.

Every situation is different, but in Slafkovsky's case, you have a 17-year-old playing well in the Finnish league and for his team in the Olympics. It's easy to see why he overtook him.

The issue here is accepting or at least acknowledging that if it can happen to Wright with all that he did prior, it can also happen to Hagens. Both could and should still be very effective NHlers, slightly more optimistic with Hagens atm.

The big thing with Schaefer is you have to buy into the projection as an NHLer in terms of what he could be if everything hits. He's a 6'3 defenceman who skates like the wind and isn't shy physically, who's also offensively in terms of his production, very good. Maybe it's something I've grown to appreciate watching Toronto, but the importance of having an absolute horse on the back end like Doughty, Hedman, Pietragelo, Makar, etc.. is almost essential if you want to go far in the spring.

 

[Rare Jewel]

Canadians are already manufacturing McKenna for 26 and Dupont for 27 so tough times ahead....don't look at 2016-2019 drafts though.

Yeah, In 2016, generally speaking, no one was pushing Dubois even above the Finnish guys, let alone Matthews.

2018 was Dahlin and Svechnikov all year. Similarly, in 2019, with Hughes and Kakko.