Bob McKenzie's mid-season draft rankings: Schaefer the unanimous #1

[jtechkid]

You probably don’t even believe this sad intellectualization yourself and are just trying to speak it into existence to soothe your fragile sense of identity. Hockey is just another sport in America. Literally none of the best American athletes ever entertain the idea of putting on a pair of skates. The US does not apply itself in hockey to remotely the same degree that Canada does.

plus the cost in the USA take a lot of kids out of the game . If every state had the Minnesota model 60% -70% NHL would be USA.

 

[Nevins]

 

[wickedwitch]

I think Hagens has been a much bigger part of their elite defense and near perfect PK than Leonard has been.

Just from a TOI perspective, Hagens almost never PKs, while Leonard regularly PKs. So I don't see how this could be true.

 

[landy92mack29]

Well, we can all make mistakes...

Did they have Makar #1 in 2017?

Avs had Patrick 1st, shame injuries derailed his career.

 

[landy92mack29]

Just from a TOI perspective, Hagens almost never PKs, while Leonard regularly PKs. So I don't see how this could be true.

Hagens isn't bad defensively by any means but he kinda has the Tyson Jost false Toews/Bergeron elite defense myth going. Per Instat Hagens averages 0:08 pk time per game so yeah he isn't a factor in the PK. For forwards it's Berard 2:14, Posma 2:03, Gasseau 1:29, Stiga 1:12, Jellvik 1:00, Leonard 0:56, Joyce 0:24, Sondreal 0:23, Perreault 0:22, Vote 0:18, Hagens 0:08, Letourneau 0:04.

 

[Zarzh]

For the record, I do think Hagens has the best chance to hit the highs of his ceiling from what I have seen, but your worries about Turcotte 2.0 are very valid, he does share many similarities to when I saw Alex's pre-draft. Nonetheless, I would be surprised if he falls that much, I still see him being an average to below-average 1st line centre and I think that's where our disagreement falls. I see somebody who resembles Crosby's game and is a workhorse at both ends of the ice. Crosby didn't have any outstanding qualities as a junior player, he was just great at everything (insane IQ though) in a non-flashy sort of way and Hagens plays a similar style if you'd ask me, where he uses a lot of IQ to know where to go in all three zones. If that's the case and a team dislikes Hagens, then they should draft Misa IMHO. Even though he's on the smaller side, he to me is the most talented player in this draft even if might play a bit too much of a junior style of game at times. His talent is worth a top 3 pick alone if you'd ask me.

It's trying to win the cup compared to trying to win the draft. I do think Hagens has quite a bit of risk while only having a moderate reward. Schaefer and Misa seem to have higher upsides, and more ways they can be successful picks which makes them less risky.

 

[S E P H]

Avs had Patrick 1st, shame injuries derailed his career.

Don't spread lies, all the Avs insiders said they had had Laine 1st overall.

 

[waitin425]

This list is missing both Hutson and Demidov. Do better Bob!

 

[qc14]

Very surprised that Schaefer has become the unanimous 1oa. Really think Hagens has become underrated (as much as the consensus 2oa can be) recently

 

[landy92mack29]

Don't spread lies, all the Avs insiders said they had had Laine 1st overall.

yeah that's the 2016 draft they had Laine 1st. 2017 they had Patrick 1st not Makar

 

[montreal]

I personally disagree with that a lot and know you have been watching a lot of BC games as well. Leonard has been off for a lot of this year. He'll get the game tying/game winning goal, but they were only down in the first place because he was constantly turning over the puck and missing open guys for the first 50 minutes.

I think Hagens has been a much bigger part of their elite defense and near perfect PK than Leonard has been.

that's why I do these vids, people can see for themselves if they bother to watch them. I try to keep the vids length down as much as possible without missing anything that say if you were a scout, you would want to see vs say the player just standing at the blueline waiting for a puck that never comes so what's the point as it just makes the vid longer and the #1 complaint I get is the vids are too long. Hagens plays a ton and has some really long shifts but I try to get most of al his TOI.

I haven't been too impressed with his defensive play, he will need to get a good bit stronger and the effort is inconsistent but it's all in the vids. I haven't noticed Leonard turning the puck over that much but I haven't focused on him as my vids are all Fowler and Hagens. I have been impressed with his play and think the Habs made a mistake going for positional need over BPA which Leonard may have been imo so it does sting a bit seeing him do so well, although he's not that big for the kind of game he plays so I do wonder how that will hold up over 82+ playoffs.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

He's been doing it ever since hockey prospect ranked him first at the end of November. Went on a massive tirade in that thread. And since then, practically every other public list has had Schaefer number 1. And he's STILL going on about it. Like dude who cares. You don't agree with it, just move on. He's just going to do this in every thread the entire year

You can put me on ignore if you don’t like my opinions.

 

[neelynugs]

what's your top 10 list of guys who were left off?

mine...

1 - nathan quinn
2 - luka radivojevic
3 - petteri rimpinen
4 - will sharpe
5 - mateo nobert
6 - bryce pickford
7 - joshua avery
8 - viggo nordlund
9 - jasper kuhta
10 - drew schock IV

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I wonder if Pavel can name who was coaching Schaefer in his rookie year in the OHL and if he could tell us a little about him?

Why does it matter? Did Wayne Gretzky mutated with Mario Lemieux coach him?

 

[S E P H]

yeah that's the 2016 draft they had Laine 1st. 2017 they had Patrick 1st not Makar

My bad, got the years confused.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Schaefer is more than a worthy first over-all pick. We can debate whether or not he should be the consensus number 1 pick, whether the vast majority of the scouting community believes he is the absolute 1OA and whether or not another pick (Hagens) has the higher upside or better long-term potential.

We should not be arguing about the (paranoid) musings by a widely regarded jingoistic poster (and he's not the only one nor is this exclusive to American posters) but rather discussing the merits of Bob's list.

In another thread I engaged your ranting about OHL superiority (after your claims about the OHL bulldozing the USHL haven’t materialized).

I was willing to take your comments at face value and debate them nicely (because that’s what I’m here for), and your response there is to attack me and tell me I mean something I never said multiple times. You didn’t even attempt to answer the points I made.

And now you call me names here. Really not sure how you’re in a place to be throwing stones. I’m not sure that giving out orders to other posters to not debate the points is really in the spirit of the website, but I guess when you are empty on specifics for any of your opinions then that’s the best strategy.

For my part, I feel that the most overrated prospect right now is Porter Martone. His lack of pace is more than a bit concerning and I honestly don't see him as a top five pick, maybe not even in the top 10.

And I’d assert you don’t even know your favorite league well. Martone has the most proven track record from the OHL. Has just as much upside as Schaefer too.

 

[Kingpin794]

Why does it matter? Did Wayne Gretzky mutated with Mario Lemieux coach him?

Part of your case against Schaefer as the top prospect is that he doesn't have the resume to back up the ranking. And you've used PPG as part of the argument, especially so when it comes to Schaefer's rookie season in the OHL. Stan Butler is notorious for A) not playing rookies in prominent roles and B) playing a very safe and low offensive style of trap hockey. If you were expecting Schaefer to put up 40+ points as a rookie defenseman for Butler, you would be out of your mind. The fact he is over PPG at 17 for Butler is amazing.

 

[Corso]

In another thread I engaged your ranting about OHL superiority (after your claims about the OHL bulldozing the USHL haven’t materialized).

I was willing to take your comments at face value and debate them nicely (because that’s what I’m here for), and your response there is to attack me and tell me I mean something I never said multiple times. You didn’t even attempt to answer the points I made.

And now you call me names here. Really not sure how you’re in a place to be throwing stones. I’m not sure that giving out orders to other posters to not debate the points is really in the spirit of the website, but I guess when you are empty on specifics for any of your opinions then that’s the best strategy.

And I’d assert you don’t even know your favorite league well. Martone has the most proven track record from the OHL. Has just as much upside as Schaefer too.

Reading comprehension was never your strong suit Pavel.......and now waiting for the bloviating drivel of a response.......

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Who said anything about Nationalism? You have your players, and are 110% biased towards them.
But you feeling like an American deserves #1 just cause Canada has had too many, shows a petty bias.
Thinking a whole country is secretly propping a prospect shows something else.

Wait, so I have my preferences? Do you not have your preferences? You’re so biased!!!!!!!!

If you don’t believe that there’s been a widespread effort by Canadians to secure the first overall, I don’t know what to tell you. You might be new around here. Happens every year, even when they don’t have the best player in the draft. Canadians in general believe hockey is their sport and they must always be the best.

It’s so funny that nearly every single criticism of Hagens since the season has been voiced by Canadians. When the stats are thrown in their face, well he doesn’t pass their eye test (I wonder why). It’s all so convenient. It’d be one thing if there was an even split to this, but this push to make sure Hagens doesn’t get picked is almost 100% from Canadians.

First was Michael Misa put in front of Hagens. We heard he was generational after he put up great early stats in the OHL in his ES year. Well, Hagens blows him out of the water head to head at the WHC17 and Misa tanks the next season.

So the challengers became Anton Frondell and Porter Martone. Well, Frondell’s been pretty lousy for nearly a year and Martone has been thoroughly outplayed by Hagens in international tournaments (WHC17, WJC18, WJC20) to the point he couldn’t be the top challenger (I’d assert he still is the best challenger, even if he’s fairly not as good as Hagens).

So now we got this new guy who doesn’t have to prove anything comparatively to Hagens, and that’s the point. None can beat him out, so let’s not make it about merit. Although, it’s worth pointing out Hagens has thoroughly outplayed Schaefer at the same tournaments they’ve played in.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

We should not be arguing about the (paranoid) musings by a widely regarded jingoistic poster (and he's not the only one nor is this exclusive to American posters) but rather discussing the merits of Bob's list.

FTFY. There are outspoken homers from every nation.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Part of your case against Schaefer as the top prospect is that he doesn't have the resume to back up the ranking. And you've used PPG as part of the argument, especially so when it comes to Schaefer's rookie season in the OHL. Stan Butler is notorious for A) not playing rookies in prominent roles and B) playing a very safe and low offensive style of trap hockey. If you were expecting Schaefer to put up 40+ points as a rookie defenseman for Butler, you would be out of your mind. The fact he is over PPG at 17 for Butler is amazing.

Actually, I have never said my argument for anything is to only look at PPG. I think that’s what hockey has become overall, but generally I think while you probably should just draft the most skilled player and not fool around, these discussions become often merely a battle of spreadsheets and who is listed where and no context matters.

You know people have watched Schaefer last year. He wasn’t that great last year. He was good. He was viewed as probably the best defenseman in this draft, but you aren’t going to try to pull the wool over people’s eyes and claim he was playing at anywhere near a 1OA level. Can’t remember one person voicing that, and I didn’t personally see that either (I was defending him actually last year).

 

[kyle44]

Wait, so I have my preferences? Do you not have your preferences? You’re so biased!!!!!!!!

If you don’t believe that there’s been a widespread effort by Canadians to secure the first overall, I don’t know what to tell you. You might be new around here. Happens every year, even when they don’t have the best player in the draft. Canadians in general believe hockey is their sport and they must always be the best.

It’s so funny that nearly every single criticism of Hagens since the season has been voiced by Canadians. When the stats are thrown in their face, well he doesn’t pass their eye test (I wonder why). It’s all so convenient. It’d be one thing if there was an even split to this, but this push to make sure Hagens doesn’t get picked is almost 100% from Canadians.

First was Michael Misa put in front of Hagens. We heard he was generational after he put up great early stats in the OHL in his ES year. Well, Hagens blows him out of the water head to head at the WHC17 and Misa tanks the next season.

So the challengers became Anton Frondell and Porter Martone. Well, Frondell’s been pretty lousy for nearly a year and Martone has been thoroughly outplayed by Hagens in international tournaments (WHC17, WJC18, WJC20) to the point he couldn’t be the top challenger (I’d assert he still is the best challenger, even if he’s fairly not as good as Hagens).

So now we got this new guy who doesn’t have to prove anything comparatively to Hagens, and that’s the point. None can beat him out, so let’s not make it about merit. Although, it’s worth pointing out Hagens has thoroughly outplayed Schaefer at the same tournaments they’ve played in.

I used to have the utmost respect for your posts and knowledge of the game. However, you sound like a total crackpot pushing this narrative. Just because a couple dozen HF posters who may or may not even watch players might push a Canadian to the top of their lists without merit or for trolling purposes, does not mean there is some behind-the-scenes, engineered effort by the hockey elite to have a Canadian kid selected first overall. Like what do you think goes on here? The President of Hockey Canada, the Prime Minister of Canada and a Canadian envoy travel around to visit the front office of the 5 most likely lottery teams to lobby to ensure they select the Canadian each year? Maybe they stop off at NHL Central Scouting offices on the way too? This take is complete and utter lunacy.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I used to have the utmost respect for your posts and knowledge of the game. However, you sound like a total crackpot pushing this narrative. Just because a couple dozen HF posters who may or may not even watch players might push a Canadian to the top of their lists without merit or for trolling purposes, does not mean there is some behind-the-scenes, engineered effort by the hockey elite to have a Canadian kid selected first overall. Like what do you think goes on here? The President of Hockey Canada, the Prime Minister of Canada and a Canadian envoy travel around to visit the front office of the 5 most likely lottery teams to lobby to ensure they select the Canadian each year? Maybe they stop off at NHL Central Scouting offices on the way too? This take is complete and utter lunacy.

This extends to Canadians who work in the media. There are quotes from NHL head scouts in that article (usually predominantly filled by Canadians) that the first overall pick is decided and there’s nothing that can be done. Why say that if the situation wasn’t fixed?

If you’ve lost respect for me, oops. I come here to give my opinion and not make friends or gain respect. I lose respect for people that’ve been completely unfair to Hagens all season in pursuit of making sure he doesn’t get picked 1OA.

 

[Rare Jewel]

Wait, so I have my preferences? Do you not have your preferences? You’re so biased!!!!!!!!

If you don’t believe that there’s been a widespread effort by Canadians to secure the first overall, I don’t know what to tell you. You might be new around here. Happens every year, even when they don’t have the best player in the draft. Canadians in general believe hockey is their sport and they must always be the best.

Nonsense.

The last guy who wasn't Canadian who went 1st was Slafkovsky, and by the season's end, he was 1st in McKenzie's rankings, not Wright.

 

[WarriorofTime]

If you don’t believe that there’s been a widespread effort by Canadians to secure the first overall, I don’t know what to tell you. You might be new around here. Happens every year, even when they don’t have the best player in the draft. Canadians in general believe hockey is their sport and they must always be the best.

Pavel, you keep saying there's no conspiracy but then say this? Why would there be a "widespread effort" by "Canadians" to secure the first overall pick? Whichever team ends up with the first pick is just going to pick whichever player they think is best. Maybe they're right, maybe they're not.

Do you at least acknowledge it's at all possible that some (many/most... all?) scouts just genuinely prefer Schaeafer without regard to national origin?

It’s so funny that nearly every single criticism of Hagens since the season has been voiced by Canadians.

A number of people on the Hawks board (we got nothing but time to discuss draft picks) have voiced their concerns of Hagens. I'm probably more Pro-Hagens than most and think a lot of the criticisms are silly/unfounded, but it's a discussion board, people can have reasonable disagreement. They are not all Canadians.