Bob McKenzie's mid-season draft rankings: Schaefer the unanimous #1

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I'm self aware says the least self aware person on the prospect boards.

I never said I wasn't a hypocrite

But if we're not allowed to be insufferable hypocrites, what are any of us doing here?

 

[BKarchitect]

Interesting

Hagens seem so to be mostly an all attack guy so it’s not only that his stats are inferior, but they are inferior to other forwards who are more complete all around guys

Shaefer on the other hand might be 3rd in production buts it’s behind dman who are strictly about offense and he’s better defensively than them

I’m quite fond of Shaefer but Hagens is gonna be good too

Hagens is not remotely at all an “all attack guy”. He’s more complete than most other recent high pick forwards. He’s just not big.

 

[TLEH]

I never said I wasn't a hypocrite

But if we're not allowed to be insufferable hypocrites, what are any of us doing here?

Noooo Pavel not you.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Noooo Pavel not you.

Seems my hypocrisy is surpassed only by my lack of reading comprehension.

 

[BKarchitect]

Here's the list of dmen drafted 1st overall to add to the cautionary tale.

View attachment 965521

I mean what exactly is this cautionary of in terms of the actual prospect in question here? I don’t see the relevance to Schaefer and his potentially being chosen first.

Tons of stud defensemen have been taken in the top three, four, five. Does Makar not have the career he has if he goes #1? Does Schaefer have a better chance of being a star if he goes #3? How many top pick underperforming forwards have there been? Plenty.

I don’t buy this idea that there is any correlation between this list and some “elevated risk” of choosing Matt Schaefer at #1 in the 2025 draft.

 

[TLEH]

Seems my hypocrisy is surpassed only by my lack of reading comprehension.

I may not agree with your Bedard takes but we agree on most everything else. Especially USA hockey.

 

[Dominance]

It’s astounding how awful the US remains at producing top talent. You’ve had the largest pool of youth players for years now, on the strength of practically exclusive investment by an NHL dominated by American owners to the detriment of growing the game in Europe and elsewhere, and we’re still in a position where you can’t say with certainty that you will contribute 15% of the draft’s first round. With how things stand projected today, it looks like you’re in the middle of what is likely to be at least a decade-long stretch without contributing a first overall pick, either. It’s incredible that your best-on-best national team isn’t even the odds-on favourite going into a tournament after Canada has undergone a decade of disastrous draft classes by our standards.

In light of this, I suppose it’s not surprising that a number of Americans here might feel a need to conjure up and delude themselves with conspiracy theories (which frankly seems to be becoming a bit of a national identity to those of us on the outside looking in) and crow about junior tournaments that your players prepare for together for years only to inconsistently succeed in eking by “B” teams thrown together days in advance. To those few: pull yourself together.

 

[HawksDub89]

I like Schaefer and would probably take him 1st. But I do agree the helium for a guy with such a small sample size is kinda insane.

I really hope he plays again before the draft.

I’d be fine with the Hawks taking him. Any of Misa, Hagens, Martone or Schaefer would be fine.

 

[Dominance]

I like Schaefer and would probably take him 1st. But I do agree the helium for a guy with such a small sample size is kinda insane.

I really hope he plays again before the draft.

I’d be fine with the Hawks taking him. Any of Misa, Hagens, Martone or Schaefer would be fine.

Unanimous top guy is surprising.

Obviously it’s intense revisionism, but one cannot help but think the decision would have been much easier if Demidov or even Sennecke had been chosen over Levshunov last year.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

It’s astounding how awful the US remains at producing top talent. You’ve had the largest pool of youth players for years now, on the strength of practically exclusive investment by an NHL dominated by American owners to the detriment of growing the game in Europe and elsewhere, and we’re still in a position where you can’t say with certainty that you will contribute 15% of the draft’s first round. With how things stand projected today, it looks like you’re in the middle of what is likely to be at least a decade-long stretch without contributing a first overall pick, either. It’s incredible that your best-on-best national team isn’t even the odds-on favourite going into a tournament after Canada has undergone a decade of disastrous draft classes by our standards.

In light of this, I suppose it’s not surprising that a number of Americans here might feel a need to conjure up and delude themselves with conspiracy theories (which frankly seems to be becoming a bit of a national identity to those of us on the outside looking in) and crow about junior tournaments that your players prepare for together for years only to inconsistently succeed in eking by “B” teams thrown together days in advance. To those few: pull yourself together.

An American likely goes first in redrafts of the 2016, 2018, 2019, 2021, and 2022 drafts.

 

[Dominance]

An American likely goes first in redrafts of the 2016, 2018, 2019, 2021, and 2022 drafts.

Luke Hughes is approximately one sixteenth the player you think he is, but the other years are indisputable as of today, indeed. The fortunes of development.

 

[WarriorofTime]

It’s astounding how awful the US remains at producing top talent.

lol someone is mad about the back to back U20 world champs.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Luke Hughes is approximately one sixteenth the player you think he is,

There's no consensus in 2021, but he'd get more votes by NHL GMs than anyone else, especially with the progress of his brothers. He's already a dominant two way defenseman.

but the other years are indisputable as of today, indeed. The fortunes of development.

Matthews and J Hughes were easy 1OA picks at the time, and tons of people had Cooley 1st.

Not like it matters, who cares which country the 1OA pick comes from, we haven't needed them to win 6 of the last 15 golds at the WJCs.

lol someone is mad about the back to back U20 world champs.

Incoming "only because we didn't bring our best players" excuse.

 

[Dominance]

There's no consensus in 2021, but he'd get more votes by NHL GMs than anyone else, especially with the progress of his brothers. He's already a dominant two way defenseman.

Matthews and J Hughes were easy 1OA picks at the time, and tons of people had Cooley 1st.

Not like it matters, who cares which country the 1OA pick comes from, we haven't needed them to win 6 of the last 15 golds at the WJCs.


Incoming "only because we didn't bring our best players" excuse.

It’s sad that the NHL has put us in a position where the WJC truly is the best reference we have for this discussion. And it’s dishonest to act as though Canada has put close to its best eligible team into those tournaments, which the US already enjoys a structural advantage in by virtue of the NTDP. Hoping that we can have something like that program get going here with the apparent emergence of a dominant CHL -> NCAA development pathway in the near future. It would be sweet if both countries’ U17 NTDPs could compete against CHL teams while the U18s face off against NCAA squads.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

Here's the list of dmen drafted 1st overall to add to the cautionary tale.

View attachment 965521

Yikes , history would tell you it's a bad idea.

I feel like what he's doing this season is more comparable to Power than say a prospect like Dahlin who was as sure of a bet as we've seen on D going 1

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Now I know you're being obtuse on purpose. Who the hell had Schaefer as barely top 10? The same damn scouts had him at number 2 on Bob's list in September.

Nah that can't be it, it's all a giant conspiracy and the rest of the world is wrong.

You still haven't answered my question about his season. Almost like you're deliberately avoiding it because the terms of Schaefer's amazing season aren't what his proponents would want you to believe.

 

[HawksDub89]

Unanimous top guy is surprising.

Obviously it’s intense revisionism, but one cannot help but think the decision would have been much easier if Demidov or even Sennecke had been chosen over Levshunov last year.

I still like Levshunov a lot. (And so do the Hawks)

If anything, taking Schaefer moves each D into a more appropriate role.

Between Schaefer, Levhunov, Korchinski, Rinzel and Vlasic you have the makings of a very good top 4.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

This isn't a question that needs asking. You have an opinion about a hockey player named James Hagens that is not mainstream and express personal offense when others do not share that opinion. An unbiased person doesn't blame differing opinions on conspiracy theories.

Actually, I think my opinion is very mainstream. You should broaden your horizons.

You back a fixed system that doesn't compute with the data because the fixing benefits your interests. Of course you don't want people to talk about it, and you'll call them conspiracy theorists.

Regardless of what names you want to call me, I think it's very clear that there's a real bias towards Canadian players and CHL players towards the NHL draft that has gotten more extreme in recent years yet doesn't align with the direction hockey is going.

That's a system in need of fixing to anyone with any objectivity.

 

[WarriorofTime]

There's no consensus in 2021, but he'd get more votes by NHL GMs than anyone else, especially with the progress of his brothers. He's already a dominant two way defenseman.

Matthews and J Hughes were easy 1OA picks at the time, and tons of people had Cooley 1st.

Not like it matters, who cares which country the 1OA pick comes from, we haven't needed them to win 6 of the last 15 golds at the WJCs.


Incoming "only because we didn't bring our best players" excuse.

Maybe one day USA hockey will be so lucky as to produce franchise level icons like Alexis Lafreniere and Owen Power. Oh well.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

No you are not, and no you don't, lol

Oh yeah? I had 5 Canadians ranked first overall in the last five drafts. If anything, that should make me biased towards Canadian players. I had a Canadian ranked over an American in 2022 when many debated which would be drafted first (neither ended up being the answer).

The data demonstrates I am objective and prefer the best players. Sorry if you don't like that. Not all of us are impartial. Some of you aren't.

 

[WarriorofTime]

First overalls are nice but it’s also just a start of a journey. Not the end. The best first year draft eligible eventual NHL player in the 2010 draft was not Taylor Hall or Tyler Seguin, who still had solid careers. It was Artemi Panarim who was undrafted and entered the NHL five years after those guys.

 

[wetcoast]

Oh I’m shocked, yet another draft Canada can’t accept that they don’t have the best player, and they manufacture this kid with only 17 games played at anywhere resembling a top 5 level as the unanimous first overall pick. 20 first round picks too is the number they’ve decided on.

When will they learn? They should be looking inward and trying to understand why their success relative to other countries in the NHL and relative to other countries in eventual outcomes for draft positions is going down but their draft positions are going up. Why did they just have their worst results in forever at two world juniors? They lost to Latvia!

The NHL draft is becoming a joke. They slot the Canadians and then give the other countries a few slots to fill in. I used to think that American players were overrated. Now, I see that they’ve become underrated. We’ve joined the Czechs, Finns, Swedes, and Russians where we have to be told by the Canadian media, their bigger fanbase, and the NHL executives that are overwhelmingly Canadian that the overwhelming majority of the best players are Canadian and CHL and there’s nothing that can be done about it, even though all the evidence says that Canadian success is declining.

I was waiting for this post and wasn't disappointed.

Did Schaefer kick your dog or what?

 

[leafs4life94]

You still haven't answered my question about his season. Almost like you're deliberately avoiding it because the terms of Schaefer's amazing season aren't what his proponents would want you to believe.

Yeah a 1.3PPG, high end skating, responsible defensemen isn't special at all.

Ignoring the fact he missed time with mono which can completely destroy your conditioning so more than just time you're out.

No one cares if you think Hagens still deserves to be #1, but acting like it's some big conspiracy is pathetic.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

His body of work goes back further than 2023/24.

He was the #1 pick in the OHL and was expected to be a star in that league.

Okay, but he wasn't.

His disappointing rookie season is the exception to an extremely impressive overall body of work.

Wait, so the exception is the full season and not the 17 games?

Or are you going to cite his stats from when he was like 12 or 13 years old, as if that matters?

He's a 6'2 elite skating defenseman that can produce offense and defend, with over a PPG so far through his 17 year old season.

That's a #1 overall pick resume no matter if he was German or Slovakian.

No, it isn't. It's actually not even close, at least statistically. I guess people can theorize whatever they want.

He's 30th in the league in PPG. Please tell me the last 30th in a junior league in PPG player that went 1OA (especially a player with such a small sample in that season).

And if you want to say, "but he's a defenseman and you can't count forwards" or something like that, he's only 4th in PPG for defensemen. He's only .02 ahead of a defenseman in the 2026 draft. He's considerably behind the pace of Parekh from last draft at the same age. Parekh only went 9th.

 

[majormajor]

No, it isn't. It's actually not even close, at least statistically. I guess people can theorize whatever they want.

He's 30th in the league in PPG. Please tell me the last 30th in a junior league in PPG player that went 1OA (especially a player with such a small sample in that season).

And if you want to say, "but he's a defenseman and you can't count forwards" or something like that, he's only 4th in PPG for defensemen. He's only .02 ahead of a defenseman in the 2026 draft. He's considerably behind the pace of Parekh from last draft at the same age. Parekh only went 9th.

The "and defend" part shouldn't be left out of your response. Schaefer is in a different category from Parekh, who profiles as a risky one way guy. The ppg threshholds for two-way guys are different. Think of Drew Doughty putting up 50 pts in 57 games in his draft year.