I actually don't mind it. They're building a team identity and taking guys who will absolutely be NHLers at some level. It's just very, very predictable.
Bob McKenzie's mid-season draft rankings: Schaefer the unanimous #1
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I actually don't mind it. They're building a team identity and taking guys who will absolutely be NHLers at some level. It's just very, very predictable.
Those guys tend to rise after u18 tourney. They are almost always underrated until.
It’s weird though because IIRC, it’s not like Bobby’s group of scouts are the only ones who don’t have Sharpe ranked highly. I know you’ve watched him a lot and have made a compelling case but there must be something that is holding him back from rising more quickly - and I’m not discounting that something could simply be a slow reluctance to deviate from initial prejudice of what he was viewed as before the season.
You would suspect a guy who has been excellent all season would start to see his stock rise by this point. I just looked - Central Scouting has him 65th among only NA based players.
- Apr 27, 2005
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Agreed, definitely a strong argument for him at 1, but unanimous was surprising.
Feels like there's a bit of post tournament hype that we often see when guys have impressive tournaments. In this case, Schaefer's limited appearance probably helped, given how bad Canada looked the moment they lost him.
I get very nervous picking a D 1st overall, especially if they are coming off an injury, but all thing considered Schaefer feels like a fairly safe pick because of his skating and IQ. And he's obviously a guy with a very high upside, probably the highest in the draft. I doubt a team will regret picking him.
Stewie Griffin
What the deuce
He's definitely not your typical "wow he's a for sure 1st overall pick", but we can't discredit him by being the best player in a weaker class lol. I wonder how people would view him if he didn't get injured...who knows.
I keep waiting for Hagens to pop, and do something great, but he's just been solid. Nothing wrong with that, but hasn't played to some level warrant being 1st overall.
deca guard
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and the 2025 nhl fan scouting season has officially opened :
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2025 Draft: Schaefer tops Central Scouting midterm rankings | NHL.com
Erie defenseman 'best available prospect at his position' despite broken clavicle at World Juniors
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Wang at 31 is just a wow. It is mind-boggling that he may be 1st round on team boards.
Rabid Ranger
2 is better than one
Seeing Wang juxtaposed with a guy like Cullen Potter in the first round is hilarious. If Wang goes first round someone should get fired. It would be one of the more egregious overreaches I can remember.
Pavel Buchnevich
"Pavel Buchnevich The Fake"
Oh I’m shocked, yet another draft Canada can’t accept that they don’t have the best player, and they manufacture this kid with only 17 games played at anywhere resembling a top 5 level as the unanimous first overall pick. 20 first round picks too is the number they’ve decided on.
When will they learn? They should be looking inward and trying to understand why their success relative to other countries in the NHL and relative to other countries in eventual outcomes for draft positions is going down but their draft positions are going up. Why did they just have their worst results in forever at two world juniors? They lost to Latvia!
The NHL draft is becoming a joke. They slot the Canadians and then give the other countries a few slots to fill in. I used to think that American players were overrated. Now, I see that they’ve become underrated. We’ve joined the Czechs, Finns, Swedes, and Russians where we have to be told by the Canadian media, their bigger fanbase, and the NHL executives that are overwhelmingly Canadian that the overwhelming majority of the best players are Canadian and CHL and there’s nothing that can be done about it, even though all the evidence says that Canadian success is declining.
When will they learn? They should be looking inward and trying to understand why their success relative to other countries in the NHL and relative to other countries in eventual outcomes for draft positions is going down but their draft positions are going up. Why did they just have their worst results in forever at two world juniors? They lost to Latvia!
The NHL draft is becoming a joke. They slot the Canadians and then give the other countries a few slots to fill in. I used to think that American players were overrated. Now, I see that they’ve become underrated. We’ve joined the Czechs, Finns, Swedes, and Russians where we have to be told by the Canadian media, their bigger fanbase, and the NHL executives that are overwhelmingly Canadian that the overwhelming majority of the best players are Canadian and CHL and there’s nothing that can be done about it, even though all the evidence says that Canadian success is declining.
This is shaping up to be such a volatile draft given how tight the groupings are. I think positional preference is going to play a bigger role than in most years as a result, if it's a true coinflip and you have a lot of centers on the way but are weak on the wing then why not take a winger?
Using current standings:
SJ- Schaefer I guess? Hardest pick to project for me since Dickinson is also an LHD and also killing it in the O but the WJC exposed some of his warts.
CHI- Hagens. I think Misa or Martone are better fits for Bedard, but if the Hawks want to build out their second wave of attack then Hagens is a no-brainer.
BUF- Misa. He could end up the best player from his class and the Sabres don't have a gamebreaker like him in their system.
NSH- McQueen is a bit of a risk given how much of the year he'll have missed and the fact it's starting to look like a chronic injury, but that didn't stop Columbus from taking Lindstrom last year. Trotz has a similar steadfastness to his decision-making and vision, so I can see him putting all his chips on a 6'5 C.
ANH- Desnoyers. Easy pick for them, both as insurance in case Carlsson only tops out as a 2C and from a team building perspective.
SEA- Martone. Another easy pick, Ron Francis has drafted a ton of smaller skilled forwards and Martone adds some size + sandpaper to the mix.
Using current standings:
SJ- Schaefer I guess? Hardest pick to project for me since Dickinson is also an LHD and also killing it in the O but the WJC exposed some of his warts.
CHI- Hagens. I think Misa or Martone are better fits for Bedard, but if the Hawks want to build out their second wave of attack then Hagens is a no-brainer.
BUF- Misa. He could end up the best player from his class and the Sabres don't have a gamebreaker like him in their system.
NSH- McQueen is a bit of a risk given how much of the year he'll have missed and the fact it's starting to look like a chronic injury, but that didn't stop Columbus from taking Lindstrom last year. Trotz has a similar steadfastness to his decision-making and vision, so I can see him putting all his chips on a 6'5 C.
ANH- Desnoyers. Easy pick for them, both as insurance in case Carlsson only tops out as a 2C and from a team building perspective.
SEA- Martone. Another easy pick, Ron Francis has drafted a ton of smaller skilled forwards and Martone adds some size + sandpaper to the mix.
Pavel Buchnevich
"Pavel Buchnevich The Fake"
That article was absolutely sycophantic.
These NHL decision makers said that Matt Schaefer, who was viewed as not even being close to a first overall selection, doesn’t need to play another game this season. 17 games against future cooks and cleaners in a junior hockey league is all they need to see.
Meanwhile, Hagens was one of the best players at the World Juniors. 1C for the Gold Medal Winners, and somehow his stock drops relative to a player who played 1 and a half games there.
It’s a fixed outcome. There’s nothing anyone can do for the draft. They decide the slots they want and then they give everyone else the rest to fight over.
It’s become pretty stark. It was never like this and this is in the worst period for their hockey maybe ever. 20 Canadian players in the first round? They are saying that 63% of the best talents in this draft are of one nationality. Canada may not even have the best senior national team anymore (their odds to win the Olympics for instance if everyone is allowed to play can’t be more than like 25%), but they have 63% of the good players?
- Sep 29, 2016
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I mean...the player has been underrated last season already. Perhaps not surprising if you only watch stats and no actual games. This season though he's 2nd in points and probably (though I'd have to check) 2nd in points per game as well among first year draft eligible CHL defensemen. So I am indeed kinda surprised to still see him underrated on so many lists. He was also driving play and creating offense shift after shift from the get go on a new and mostly overmatched team. So you can't say that his production came just from playing on a strong Lethbridge team. It's also not like there are any glaring weaknesses in his game. He's probably one of if not THE most mature, most consistent defensemen of his draft class. Not very big but not among the smallest defensemen either. I also have no reason to believe that his game won't translate well to pro hockey. He's a fast skater with good mobility, good hands and good vision. He's not known for doing lots of crazy things but that can be a positive as well since that kinda stuff is much tougher to pull off in pro hockey. At the same time it's also not like he's only collecting random secondary assists. He's very good at making plays, even driving play, creating offense from the back end both via finding open teammates or with the puck on his stick.
The only downside I see, and I've said this already, is physicality. He's not exactly allergic to contact but doesn't really use his body to his advantage either. I think that's something he has to work on.
So I don't really know why he's underrated. Probably a lack of exposure because he hasn't played for one of the big market teams and wasn't selected for big events like the top prospect challenge either. But then again, some "scouts" should be high on him because of his stats alone. I don't know.
If there's something wrong with this kid I'd love to know. I'm hearing only good things about him though. Humble kid, beloved teammate. Very involved with the community in Lethbridge. Volunteered to donate to charity (Alberta Children's hospital) both this and last season. No real flaws in his game. If someone has more info on this, let me know. Otherwise I'm pretty sure he's gonna go well inside the top64, probably even 32.
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WarriorofTime
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- Jul 3, 2010
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There is only 1 Finnish player in the Top 80 and none in the HM. We'll see if anyone can make a good impression at the U18s. I attended the 2017 NHL Draft 1st round and saw 6 Finnish players get selected that day, and 23 Finnish players in total were selected that draft. Far cry from what will happen this year.
- Sep 29, 2016
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It's a joke. I don't know who those 10 scouts are but based on this ranking they clearly never watched some of these kids.
You can pretend it's a conspiracy but the reality is that most top U.S and Euro draft eligibles either haven't met expectations or haven't seen a significant jump in development this year.
Hagens, Frondell and Ryabkin were considered top 5 at the start of the year but none of them are producing like top picks.
Hensler and Bouwmediene were also thought of as potential top 10 guys, but neither are putting up numbers in the NCAA.
USNTDP as a whole is having a down year, and there aren't many Euros breaking out either.
Also I'm consistently shocked at your surprise Schaefer is being ranked over Hagens.
NHL scouts are going to take a 6'2 two-way D with elite skating over a guy with Hagens tools unless the smaller skilled forward is producing at an elite clip, but that's not happening.
Juxtaposer
Outro: Divina Comedia
Haoxi Wang over Cameron Reid and Carter Amico is just an insane choice IMO. Reid is the third best defenseman in this draft and apparently has no hype at all.
Here's the thing, though. Considering Schaefer's borderline nonexistent body of work, if he were Slovakian or German or whatever, not only would he not be the unanimous number 1, he would barely be in top 5 consideration. That's a massive red flag for the evaluation of this player, particularly considering the heightened risk that comes with drafting a defenseman.
Pavel Buchnevich
"Pavel Buchnevich The Fake"
Of course that’s the narrative Canadians want to spin to perpetrate their reign having a disproportionate share of the first rounders.
And this stuff doesn’t even pass basic scrutiny. So Hagens ends up one of the best players at the World Juniors and the 1C for the Gold Medal Winners yet his stock goes down relative to a guy who played 1.5 games? That makes no sense.
The NHL scouts that McKenzie quotes claim there is absolutely nothing anyone could do. They’ve decided Schaefer is the guy. 17 games in junior hockey is all they need to see, even though for years he’s been outplayed by the competition. But they think he’s been so amazing in these 17 games.
It’s not logical, but it doesn’t need to be logical. It’s a fixed outcome. The decision makers are literally spelling that out for us.
StlBigFly
Registered User
- Mar 29, 2012
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Just realized:
If Buffalo, who appears to have great odds, wins the lottery this year….
We may see the elusive 1st overall pick trade!
It feels like there comes a point in time that you have too many defenseman, and I think the Sabres would be a good example. Really hard to push expectations so far forward when you have a really excellent situation in the position that needs to be built around, and a team that would be super charged if it pulled its future forward.
I’m going to now have to follow this because that’s a fun thing to understand the motives of.
If Buffalo, who appears to have great odds, wins the lottery this year….
We may see the elusive 1st overall pick trade!
It feels like there comes a point in time that you have too many defenseman, and I think the Sabres would be a good example. Really hard to push expectations so far forward when you have a really excellent situation in the position that needs to be built around, and a team that would be super charged if it pulled its future forward.
I’m going to now have to follow this because that’s a fun thing to understand the motives of.
Hagens was good, but I don't think he was amazing nor one of the best. I think a lot of his points came and best games came against the bottom feeders. Now with that said, I am not sure how an injured Schaefer deserves to be 1st overall over him.
Pavel Buchnevich
"Pavel Buchnevich The Fake"
Fjordy
Soul Dancing in the Dark
- Jun 20, 2018
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I don't think he looked useless against any of the top teams either, but I thought his best games were against the bad nations.
Rare Jewel
Patience
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Bob McKenzie's mid-season draft rankings: Schaefer the unanimous #1- Latest: WarriorofTime
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