Bob McKenzie's mid-season draft rankings: Schaefer the unanimous #1

[MichaelFarrell]

If the Penguins are picking 6-10, I really hope Bear, Schmidt, or Lakovich are available. I do not want McQueen or Desnoyers. If Eklund is available, which he probably shouldn’t be, I will be very happy.

If we end up 10-15, I would love Cootes, Potter, Kindel, Mrtka, or Hensler.

 

[tmg]

Obligatory reminder: this is not Bob's opinion, he polls 10 scouts to come up with these rankings.

I used to take that fact as a good sign for the ‘legitimacy’ / ‘accuracy’ of these rankings. I guess I assumed that scouts overall were close enough in ideals and player immersion that a sample size as large as 10 teams’ scouts would be sufficiently large to be a reliable predictor of the other 22 and the 32 as a whole.

Last year’s actual draft really made me start to wonder about whether nhl scouts are just too different for even this sample size to be reliable.

I get that occasionally teams might think they’ve found a diamond in the rough and reach up. Beckett Sennecke going at 3 when Bob’s Ten had him #11, I get, because it only really takes one contrary voice to make that happen.

What I don’t get is how many players fell, far, compared to the rankings of Bob’s Ten. A player falling doesn’t happen as a single outlier decision - it happens as a collective set of decisions. 4-ranked Silayev falling to 10, for instance - that’s a lot of teams in between that, round after round, thought “Silayev isn’t the best guy left” after clearly much of Bob’s ten thought he was. And when that many scouts / teams thought that … then it makes me wonder why Bob’s 10 mismatched and whether their rankings are reliable predictors of concensus perceptions at all.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Hagens definitely isn't the 3rd wheel on BC and has been consistently their best player on the best team in the country (maybe besides Fowler). Why do you feel his has been underwhelming? Sounds like you haven't watched many games.

BC scoring is down this year, they were 2nd in goals last year, this year they are tied for 24th at the moment, which seems to negatively impact Hagens.. but the team is still just as good overall (Number 1 team in nation).

 

[Hale The Villain]

Here's the thing, though. Considering Schaefer's borderline nonexistent body of work, if he were Slovakian or German or whatever, not only would he not be the unanimous number 1, he would barely be in top 5 consideration. That's a massive red flag for the evaluation of this player, particularly considering the heightened risk that comes with drafting a defenseman.

His body of work goes back further than 2023/24.

He was the #1 pick in the OHL and was expected to be a star in that league.

His disappointing rookie season is the exception to an extremely impressive overall body of work.

He's a 6'2 elite skating defenseman that can produce offense and defend, with over a PPG so far through his 17 year old season.

That's a #1 overall pick resume no matter if he was German or Slovakian.

 

[Bjorn Le]

What is my bias?

This isn't a question that needs asking. You have an opinion about a hockey player named James Hagens that is not mainstream and express personal offense when others do not share that opinion. An unbiased person doesn't blame differing opinions on conspiracy theories.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Of course that’s the narrative Canadians want to spin to perpetrate their reign having a disproportionate share of the first rounders.

And this stuff doesn’t even pass basic scrutiny. So Hagens ends up one of the best players at the World Juniors and the 1C for the Gold Medal Winners yet his stock goes down relative to a guy who played 1.5 games? That makes no sense.

The NHL scouts that McKenzie quotes claim there is absolutely nothing anyone could do. They’ve decided Schaefer is the guy. 17 games in junior hockey is all they need to see, even though for years he’s been outplayed by the competition. But they think he’s been so amazing in these 17 games.

It’s not logical, but it doesn’t need to be logical. It’s a fixed outcome. The decision makers are literally spelling that out for us.

I think Hagens not being #1 doesn't have much to do with his WJC performance, which was solid but unspectacular. That tournament matters much more to HF and online scouts than actual NHL scouts.

25 points in 21 games is also very solid for a kid in his 18YR old development year, but not the elite level production you want from a #1 overall pick.

It's early in the season for both Schaefer and Hagens. Maybe Hagens lights it up down the stretch and the narrative changes, or Schaefer regresses and doesn't look like his offensive upside is high-end, but as of now there's no proof a pro-Canadian conspiracy is behind Schaefer being ranked ahead considering his tools and production have both been superior to Hagens thus far.

 

[LilLeeroy]

I think Hagens not being #1 doesn't have much to do with his WJC performance, which was solid but unspectacular. That tournament matters much more to HF and online scouts than actual NHL scouts.

25 points in 21 games is also very solid for a kid in his 18YR old development year, but not the elite level production you want from a #1 overall pick.

It's early in the season for both Schaefer and Hagens. Maybe Hagens lights it up down the stretch and the narrative changes, or Schaefer regresses and doesn't look like his offensive upside is high-end, but as of now there's no proof a pro-Canadian conspiracy is behind Schaefer being ranked ahead considering his tools and production have both been superior to Hagens thus far.

I mean he's outscoring Ryan Leonard, who last season was scoring at a higher 5v5 rate than Celebrini. Hard to say his production is disappointing for a #1 overall pick if you actually give it context.

 

[WarriorofTime]

What I don’t get is how many players fell, far, compared to the rankings of Bob’s Ten. A player falling doesn’t happen as a single outlier decision - it happens as a collective set of decisions. 4-ranked Silayev falling to 10, for instance - that’s a lot of teams in between that, round after round, thought “Silayev isn’t the best guy left” after clearly much of Bob’s ten thought he was. And when that many scouts / teams thought that … then it makes me wonder why Bob’s 10 mismatched and whether their rankings are reliable predictors of concensus perceptions at all.

Celebrini: 1 -> 1
Demidov 2 -> 5 (Red scare?)
Levshunov: 3 -> 2
Silayev: 4 -> 10 (Red scare?)
Lindstom: 5 -> 4
Dickinson: 6 -> 11
Buium: 7 -> 12
Parekh: 8 -> 9
Helenius: 9 -> 14
Iginla: 10 -> 6
Sennecke: 11 -> 3
Catton: 12 -> 8
Yakemchuk: 13 -> 7
Eiserman: 14 -> 20
Connelly: 15 -> 19
Jiricek: 16 -> 16
Brandsegg-Nygard: 17 -> 15
Greentree: 18 -> 26
Luchanko: 19 -> 13
Solberg: 20 -> 23
Chernyshov: 21 -> 33 (Red scare?)
Boisvert: 22 -> 18
Beaudoin: 23 -> 24
Hage: 24 -> 21
Parascak: 25 -> 17
Hemming: 26 -> 29
Emery: 27 -> 30
Vanacker: 28 -> 27
Badinka: 29 -> 34
Basha: 30 -> 41
Ritchie: 31 -> 45
O'Reilly: 32 -> 32

Bob McKenzie's Final NHL Draft Ranking: Many attractive and diverse options after Macklin Celebrini | TSN

This year’s final ranking, from No. 2 on, is much more challenging to assemble because of two factors - many more divergent opinions and variance on even the top 10 picks and two Russians forcing their way into the conversation in the upper echelon.

www.tsn.ca

I don't really see this as being too crazy. I'd say generally the Top 5 is more firmly in place, and you'd expect more consensus around top 10, but then after that there seems to be a good bit of consensus around 1st round picks with personal preferences taking over until you get to the two way at the end, when draft boards are probably going to really start to differ most dramatically.

The fact that three of the highest relative value fallers are Russians playing in Russia seems logical, scouts may have liked their games enough to be more in line with the McKenzie consensus but had the Russia scare so GMs took someone else. There aren't a ton of what I'd consider dramatic fallers. 8/10 scouts had Dickinson top 10, but that also means 2/10 didn't (obviously). Lower consensus guys like Iginla and Catton aren't that surprising if one team had them higher, and then there's handedness scarcity with players like Parekh and Yakemchuk working in their favor.

Sennecke is the most dramatic riser, but even in the 10 scout panel it says one guy had him as high as Number 5. I guess one other guy not on the panel had him No. 3.

 

[robertmac43]

The scouts are sleeping on Cameron Reid!

 

[Brodeur]

I used to take that fact as a good sign for the ‘legitimacy’ / ‘accuracy’ of these rankings. I guess I assumed that scouts overall were close enough in ideals and player immersion that a sample size as large as 10 teams’ scouts would be sufficiently large to be a reliable predictor of the other 22 and the 32 as a whole.

Last year’s actual draft really made me start to wonder about whether nhl scouts are just too different for even this sample size to be reliable.

Bob doesn't go into detail which teams/scouts he gets the info from. I remember there was an honest quote from 2019 regarding Hughes/Kakko from one of Bob's respondents. To paraphrase, the scout was from a team picking in the 20s so they only had a brief discussion about who was #1 / sorting out the top tier since it wasn't worth their time to debate guys they wouldn't be in a position to draft. But despite that, Bob would still use their list to help formulate the final ranking.

I still find Bob's list fairly accurate in terms of tiers. Most years there's a somewhat defined top tier but guys could go in any order depending a team's needs.

Occasionally we'll see a consensus top 5 guy like Cam Fowler fall because it's a perfect storm. Most of the teams picking #4-9 that year had recently spent a 1st rounder on a LHD puck moving D so they were focused on a forward.

On his final 2021 list, Bob noted that there wasn't much separation between 2-9. Sure enough those players were taken in the top 9 but in different order than Bob's survey.

Last year it felt like a tier drop after #13. Luchanko jumped into that group (which Bob left some bread crumbs about) on draft day and then Helenius "dropped" to #14.

 

[Mattilaus]

LHD? Sabres have this wrapped up. We getting the #1 pick. We will take Schaefer and we will not trade away any of our LHD and continue to suck.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I also am relatively objective in my opinions and can check my biases

Dude you had Charlie Stramel ahead of Adam Fantilii for ages. You had Turcotte in the top 2. Every year it seems you overrate at least one American prospect.

Your lack of self awareness in this thread is impressive.

 

[Woodrow]

The fact the Sabres continue to suck should be a cautionary tale about drafting dmen 1st overall.

 

[FLAMESFAN]

I admit I have a rooting interest. I also am relatively objective in my opinions and can check my biases. I praise players of all nationalities and criticize players of all nationalities. I follow players from every country and league. So no, you aren’t going to get off accusing me of being biased.

No you are not, and no you don't, lol

 

[leafs4life94]

His body of work goes back further than 2023/24.

He was the #1 pick in the OHL and was expected to be a star in that league.

His disappointing rookie season is the exception to an extremely impressive overall body of work.

He's a 6'2 elite skating defenseman that can produce offense and defend, with over a PPG so far through his 17 year old season.

That's a #1 overall pick resume no matter if he was German or Slovakian.

I would argue that his rookie season isn't as disappointing as it appears, and is almost impressive, when you look at what he went through on a personal level. 16 years old, moves to a new country while his mom his fighting breast cancer. Then only 4 months into his rookie year his billet mom does. Then another couple months later his mom takes a turn for the worse and passes away.

The fact he went through that and still put up a decent season is impressive as hell

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

Some people here have the memory of a goldfish. Nolan Patrick fell to 2, Shane Wright fell to 4, both were at one point the consensus 1st overall pick. How exactly is there a conspiracy to get a Canadian selected first?

A smaller forward with a late birthday needs elite production to beat out a 6’2 defenseman with Schaefer’s skill set. That can’t be surprising to anyone who has followed the draft for some time.

 

[Brodeur]

The fact the Sabres continue to suck should be a cautionary tale about drafting dmen 1st overall.

It's up to the GM to fill out the roster. Edmonton had Hall-RNH-Yakupov and didn't turn things around immediately. It took a few years but Florida got more talent around Aaron Ekblad. I don't think anybody would have second guessed Tampa taking Victor Hedman had they had #1 in 2009. Apparently the Kings would have taken Drew Doughty #1 if they had won the 2008 lottery.

There was a late rumor that the Devils were going to take Cale Makar #1 in 2017. That would have been an interesting alternate universe.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Why would anyone be offended by any list? If you get your rocks off over being right, all that should matter is whether you had the right opinion about a player at the end of the day. I don't see how any list would ever impact that outcome.

 

[TLEH]

Dude you had Charlie Stramel ahead of Adam Fantilii for ages. You had Turcotte in the top 2. Every year it seems you overrate at least one American prospect.

Your lack of self awareness in this thread is impressive.

I'm self aware says the least self aware person on the prospect boards.

 

[ottawah]

Never the biggest fan of MacKenzies list because with just 10 scouts it is not statistically relevant, and one or two scouts can swing players widely in the upper level of the rankings.

 

[ottawah]

Just tell me who works hard and plays a 200 ft game with limited offensive upside so I can accurately predict Detroit's pick.

Can we just trade you Boucher for the pick now?

Boucher is a prime example of why MacKenzies list can be suspect. Concenseus had him going around 50th, but was 29th on MacKenzies list, largely because one team had him in their top 10, and I am 100% convinced that scout was Ottawa.

He polls 35 scouts, and things look a lot better. 10 is just too few and too easily skewed.

 

[Woodrow]

Here's the list of dmen drafted 1st overall to add to the cautionary tale.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

yeah it's not like Schaefer didn't go 1st overall in the OHL draft and been highly thought of for years....but hey his haters/Hagens homers will try and use last years numbers where he had a smaller role and was dealing with a bunch off the ice as proof he doesn't have a long resume of elite play...

Yes. And Schaefer played in u18 last year as underager and dominated Hlinka to start this season. After Hlinka, folks started realizing he needed to be in 1oa discussion. After he showed he was by far the top Canadian defenseman for the WJC (when they had multiple highly drafted 18 and 19-year-olds), it was pretty clear that he was a step above any defensive prospect we have seen in last several years. He is probably best defensive prosect from CHL since Drew Doughty.

 

[SarniaStingFan]

I've been seeing the Hagens vs. Schaefer discussion on here and thought I'd provide some statistical context for fun:

Hagens - 1.19 PPG, 25th highest PPG by a draft eligible forward in NCAA history

Schaefer - 1.29 PPG, t-13th highest PPG by a draft eligible d-man in OHL history

If you want it to be more recent let's take a look at the last 10 years (from the 2015-2016 season to present)

Hagens - 3rd best PPG by a draft eligible forward playing in the NCAA. He's behind Adam Fantilli (1.81 PPG) and Macklin Celebrini (1.68 PPG)

Schaefer - 3rd best PPG by a draft eligible d-man playing in the OHL. He's behind Zayne Parekh (1.45 PPG) and Evan Bouchard (1.30 PPG)

 

[De Montreal]

I've been seeing the Hagens vs. Schaefer discussion on here and thought I'd provide some statistical context for fun:

Hagens - 1.19 PPG, 25th highest PPG by a draft eligible forward in NCAA history

Schaefer - 1.29 PPG, t-13th highest PPG by a draft eligible d-man in OHL history

If you want it to be more recent let's take a look at the last 10 years (from the 2015-2016 season to present)

Hagens - 3rd best PPG by a draft eligible forward playing in the NCAA. He's behind Adam Fantilli (1.81 PPG) and Macklin Celebrini (1.68 PPG)

Schaefer - 3rd best PPG by a draft eligible d-man playing in the OHL. He's behind Zayne Parekh (1.45 PPG) and Evan Bouchard (1.30 PPG)

Interesting

Hagens seem so to be mostly an all attack guy so it’s not only that his stats are inferior, but they are inferior to other forwards who are more complete all around guys

Shaefer on the other hand might be 3rd in production buts it’s behind dman who are strictly about offense and he’s better defensively than them

I’m quite fond of Shaefer but Hagens is gonna be good too