Bob McKenzie's mid-season draft rankings: Schaefer the unanimous #1

[24 others]

Benak can go anywhere from 1OA to undrafted and working at Wendy's

LOL, nailed it.

 

[landy92mack29]

Here's the thing, though. Considering Schaefer's borderline nonexistent body of work, if he were Slovakian or German or whatever, not only would he not be the unanimous number 1, he would barely be in top 5 consideration. That's a massive red flag for the evaluation of this player, particularly considering the heightened risk that comes with drafting a defenseman.

yeah it's not like Schaefer didn't go 1st overall in the OHL draft and been highly thought of for years....but hey his haters/Hagens homers will try and use last years numbers where he had a smaller role and was dealing with a bunch off the ice as proof he doesn't have a long resume of elite play.

Of course that’s the narrative Canadians want to spin to perpetrate their reign having a disproportionate share of the first rounders.

And this stuff doesn’t even pass basic scrutiny. So Hagens ends up one of the best players at the World Juniors and the 1C for the Gold Medal Winners yet his stock goes down relative to a guy who played 1.5 games? That makes no sense.

The NHL scouts that McKenzie quotes claim there is absolutely nothing anyone could do. They’ve decided Schaefer is the guy. 17 games in junior hockey is all they need to see, even though for years he’s been outplayed by the competition. But they think he’s been so amazing in these 17 games.

It’s not logical, but it doesn’t need to be logical. It’s a fixed outcome. The decision makers are literally spelling that out for us.

Your Hagens goggles blind you to the fact he simply wasn't that good at the WJCs and simply stat padded vs the weak teams. Did absolutely nothing vs the top teams and when I watch him in the NCAA he looks solid but he doesn't dominate and is usually the 3rd wheel. You also use the crutch of international play when comparing Hagens to Schaefer when league play matters more and Hagens has simply been underwhelming from both a numbers and eye test this year compared to what was expected of him. FWIW Hagens is 3rd for me behind Schaefer and Misa so not like I don't think he'll be a great player. It's a good year for the CHL and weak basically everywhere else so yeah it'll be heavy CHL. You use the WJCs as the only bar for comparing countries which is very dumb. NHL teams don't care where players come from(as long as they're willing to come over/sign) they just want the best players who fit their team.


As for the actual rankings fairly accurate from the WHL perspective and nice seeing 11 in the top 30, will be strong class again next year also out west.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Pavel, there's no grand conspiracy. Teams just take whichever player they think will help them the most, and sometimes they're wrong. Alex Turcotte went 5th and is useless. Tyler Boucher went 10th and he;s barely an AHL player.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

yeah it's not like Schaefer didn't go 1st overall in the OHL draft and been highly thought of for years....but hey his haters/Hagens homers will try and use last years numbers where he had a smaller role and was dealing with a bunch off the ice as proof he doesn't have a long resume of elite play.

Your Hagens goggles blind you to the fact he simply wasn't that good at the WJCs and simply stat padded vs the weak teams. Did absolutely nothing vs the top teams and when I watch him in the NCAA he looks solid but he doesn't dominate and is usually the 3rd wheel. You also use the crutch of international play when comparing Hagens to Schaefer when league play matters more and Hagens has simply been underwhelming from both a numbers and eye test this year compared to what was expected of him. FWIW Hagens is 3rd for me behind Schaefer and Misa so not like I don't think he'll be a great player. It's a good year for the CHL and weak basically everywhere else so yeah it'll be heavy CHL. You use the WJCs as the only bar for comparing countries which is very dumb. NHL teams don't care where players come from(as long as they're willing to come over/sign) they just want the best players who fit their team.


As for the actual rankings fairly accurate from the WHL perspective and nice seeing 11 in the top 30, will be strong class again next year also out west.

I think you calling me biased is hilarious. I don’t think I’ve ever seen you make one comment critical of the CHL or Canadians (unless it’s comparing players from the Q or O to W) or complimentary of another league or players who are of other nationalities (that aren’t CHL products, especially WHL).

I admit I have a rooting interest. I also am relatively objective in my opinions and can check my biases. I praise players of all nationalities and criticize players of all nationalities. I follow players from every country and league. So no, you aren’t going to get off accusing me of being biased.

For the record, I supported Canadian players for first overall in the last 5 drafts, and the math says only 4 of them got selected there, unless you want to assert I’m biased towards Canadians. I base decisions for that slot based off the hockey I watch. You? I suspect there is absolutely nothing an American could do to be first on your list, short of playing in the WHL or growing up in Saskatchewan.

It is relatively clear this year that Hagens is the best player in the draft. It has been known for a few years. He has outplayed all the anointed challengers in these head to head tournaments. He has also had an impressive draft season. Of course, the Canadians can’t just let someone else have it. They need to be the best every year, even when their players have very short resumes in comparison to the competition. Maybe they’ll be a brave team this year like Montreal in 2022 that was willing to buck the trend and select the best player instead of the anointed Canadian candidate.

 

[Fyodorov]

yeah it's not like Schaefer didn't go 1st overall in the OHL draft and been highly thought of for years....but hey his haters/Hagens homers will try and use last years numbers where he had a smaller role and was dealing with a bunch off the ice as proof he doesn't have a long resume of elite play.

Your Hagens goggles blind you to the fact he simply wasn't that good at the WJCs and simply stat padded vs the weak teams. Did absolutely nothing vs the top teams and when I watch him in the NCAA he looks solid but he doesn't dominate and is usually the 3rd wheel. You also use the crutch of international play when comparing Hagens to Schaefer when league play matters more and Hagens has simply been underwhelming from both a numbers and eye test this year compared to what was expected of him. FWIW Hagens is 3rd for me behind Schaefer and Misa so not like I don't think he'll be a great player. It's a good year for the CHL and weak basically everywhere else so yeah it'll be heavy CHL. You use the WJCs as the only bar for comparing countries which is very dumb. NHL teams don't care where players come from(as long as they're willing to come over/sign) they just want the best players who fit their team.


As for the actual rankings fairly accurate from the WHL perspective and nice seeing 11 in the top 30, will be strong class again next year also out west.

....are you really using a guy's SCTA U16 play as part of the reason he should be unanimous 1OA for the NHL draft? Wow HF, you really leave me speechless sometimes!

 

[WarriorofTime]

22 of the top 32 from CHL. Very strong canadian class.

If Big Roger is still at 7 despite barely playing and having recurring back issues (yikes), it could just be a bad draft in the aggregate and the CHL heavy list just reflects more or less a default (there are always going to be 17 year olds getting good ice time with decent production that you can use a pick on) in the absence of anything else. Even the much maligned NTDP '07 group which has been called the worst ever still seems to have a boatload of 2nd round ranked prospects, because I guess somebody has gotta. Wonder if the Swedish '07s are underrated a bit. European kids often fly under the radar until international competition and then there's more of a retroactive scouting push on them.

 

[Fyodorov]

Pavel, there's no grand conspiracy. Teams just take whichever player they think will help them the most, and sometimes they're wrong. Alex Turcotte went 5th and is useless. Tyler Boucher went 10th and he;s barely an AHL player.

Again, there's a big difference between a "grand conspiracy" and implicit bias. The implicit bias of a league of mostly Canadian decision makers viewing the CHL as much better than it actually is. It's funny because I think it even applies to Canadians that don't play in the CHL. Celebrini should have been way more hyped than he was if you watched him all year in the NCAA, and frankly I think if he tore up the CHL instead that would have been the case.

 

[WarriorofTime]

....are you really using a guy's SCTA U16 play as part of the reason he should be unanimous 1OA for the NHL draft? Wow HF, you really leave me speechless sometimes!

Schaefer doesn't have a non-existent body of work. He's played a normal full season every year before this one, including in a couple of U18 tournaments, playing "up" (and he's much closer to being a late birthday for next year's class than the guys who are late birthdays for this class).

I'm not sure Pavel's fixation on where he was ranked before this year, this year is always going to be most relevant because it's the year players are drafted. But even still, Schaefer has always been highly regarded and considered best D in class years out. 17 games isn't a nothing sample. It's 4 less league games than Hagen has played to date because CHL teams play a boat load of games and will end up being about 50 % of a total NCAA season workload.

 

[Bjorn Le]

I think you calling me biased is hilarious. I don’t think I’ve ever seen you make one comment critical of the CHL or Canadians (unless it’s comparing players from the Q or O to W) or complimentary of another league or players who are of other nationalities (that aren’t CHL products, especially WHL).

I admit I have a rooting interest. I also am relatively objective in my opinions and can check my biases. I praise players of all nationalities and criticize players of all nationalities. I follow players from every country and league. So no, you aren’t going to get off accusing me of being biased.

For the record, I supported Canadian players for first overall in the last 5 drafts, and the math says only 4 of them got selected there, unless you want to assert I’m biased towards Canadians. I base decisions for that slot based off the hockey I watch. You? I suspect there is absolutely nothing an American could do to be first on your list, short of playing in the WHL or growing up in Saskatchewan.

It is relatively clear this year that Hagens is the best player in the draft. It has been known for a few years. He has outplayed all the anointed challengers in these head to head tournaments. He has also had an impressive draft season. Of course, the Canadians can’t just let someone else have it. They need to be the best every year, even when their players have very short resumes in comparison to the competition. Maybe they’ll be a brave team this year like Montreal in 2022 that was willing to buck the trend and select the best player instead of the anointed Canadian candidate.

Buddy, just own that you’re biased. You rant and rave about Hagens in nearly every post you make. And statements like “It is relatively clear this year that Hagens is the best player in the draft” just makes that even more evident—other players are being ranked above him on pretty much every single prospect ranking since November. Lots of people don’t share your opinion, and it’s not them that are the biased ones.

There is no conspiracy to rank Canadian players above Americans in the media and among scouts, Hagens just isn’t the can’t beat first overall destined prospect you think he is. Hagens is an undersized playmaking centre, it’s really no surprise he’s being consistently outranked by an equally highly touted defenceman who is compared to franchise, cup-winning defencemen.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Again, there's a big difference between a "grand conspiracy" and implicit bias. The implicit bias of a league of mostly Canadian decision makers viewing the CHL as much better than it actually is. It's funny because I think it even applies to Canadians that don't play in the CHL. Celebrini should have been way more hyped than he was if you watched him all year in the NCAA, and frankly I think if he tore up the CHL instead that would have been the case.

It's certainly possible (Yakuov vs. Kucherov, was Yakupov really that much a better prospect come respective draft days or just a guy that had way more exposure playing in OHL?) At the end of the day, it's still kind of the "default" leagues (very few draft eligible plays in the NCAA, there aren't that many USHL teams and 17 year olds don't get a lot of ice time outside of the USNTDP which is just a single team worth of players with limited ice time distribution, the European Junior leagues are certainly scouted better today than they used to be but not as in-depth and teams tend to default to however the national teams slate them). You can certainly always count on the CHL leagues (well 2 of them) to feed warm bodies into the NHL, so if there isn't compelling cases being made globally, a bunch of them will go high in the draft and have NHL careers even if they end up looking pretty underwhelming (the CHL heavy 2020 NHL Draft is a good example of how this can play out).

 

[Vasilevskiy]

That article was absolutely sycophantic.

These NHL decision makers said that Matt Schaefer, who was viewed as not even being close to a first overall selection, doesn’t need to play another game this season. 17 games against future cooks and cleaners in a junior hockey league is all they need to see.

Meanwhile, Hagens was one of the best players at the World Juniors. 1C for the Gold Medal Winners, and somehow his stock drops relative to a player who played 1 and a half games there.

It’s a fixed outcome. There’s nothing anyone can do for the draft. They decide the slots they want and then they give everyone else the rest to fight over.

It’s become pretty stark. It was never like this and this is in the worst period for their hockey maybe ever. 20 Canadian players in the first round? They are saying that 63% of the best talents in this draft are of one nationality. Canada may not even have the best senior national team anymore (their odds to win the Olympics for instance if everyone is allowed to play can’t be more than like 25%), but they have 63% of the good players?

Pavel, who cares that a player is ranked higher or lower, I would just care that my team drafts a proper player. If other teams make bad picks then that's their problem. I don't really get the rant.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Buddy, just own that you’re biased. You rant and rave about Hagens in nearly every post you make. And statements like “It is relatively clear this year that Hagens is the best player in the draft” just makes that even more evident—other players are being ranked above him on pretty much every single prospect ranking since November. Lots of people don’t share your opinion, and it’s not them that are the biased ones.

There is no conspiracy to rank Canadian players above Americans in the media and among scouts, Hagens just isn’t the can’t beat first overall destined prospect you think he is. Hagens is an undersized playmaking centre, it’s really no surprise he’s being consistently outranked by an equally highly touted defenceman who is compared to franchise, cup-winning defencemen.

Oh look, another Canadian who does nothing but advocate for Canadians calling me biased. I guess when someone brings up the inconvenient truth you don’t like it.

What is my bias? I have ranked Canadians first in the last 5 drafts. Please, explain to me how that means I have a bias to rank Americans ahead of Canadians. In fact, I ranked a Canadian ahead of an American in 2022 when many believed the American was better.

The NHL draft community is controlled by Canadians. Most executives are Canadian, most of the media is Canadian, and Canada has by far the largest fanbase.

If you’re going to assert I’m biased due to where I’m from, why not assert these people are? Oh wait, because it wouldn’t be convenient for your narrative.

Trying to tell me the consensus isn’t going to decide my own opinion. I think a lot of people succumb to groupthink. A lot of NHL executives are bad at their jobs and fail their way up. A lot of fans don’t really watch the players and just believe some quote from a scout or what Craig Button writes. I’ll back my own judgement. I don’t really feel inferior to the NHL geniuses or the experts who don’t even demonstrate that they watch enough of these players to be considered experts.

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

Keep in mind he had a crucial goal in the final.

Who the hell cares? it was one goal. Akiil Thomas scored the game winning goal at the WJC and he was never going to be anything. Hagens was good but nothing special. Martone might have looked just as good if the coach wasn't an imbecile.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Pavel, who cares that a player is ranked higher or lower, I would just care that my team drafts a proper player. If other teams make bad picks then that's their problem. I don't really get the rant.

Because the system is crooked. And I think it’s worth pointing it out so that it can be corrected.

It should not be so that Canadians perform worse and worse in the hockey and better and and better in the first round. That doesn’t compute.

 

[Vasilevskiy]

Because the system is crooked. And I think it’s worth pointing it out so that it can be corrected.

It should not be so that Canadians perform worse and worse in the hockey and better and and better in the first round. That doesn’t compute.

Just looks like a weak ass draft to me and scouts going for what they believe is the safest players. They can be wrong.

 

[landy92mack29]

....are you really using a guy's SCTA U16 play as part of the reason he should be unanimous 1OA for the NHL draft? Wow HF, you really leave me speechless sometimes!

it's not a hard concept that top players usually stay top players if they continue their development. When you look back at the top NHL picks they are almost always high picks for their respective leagues in the CHL.

I think you calling me biased is hilarious. I don’t think I’ve ever seen you make one comment critical of the CHL or Canadians (unless it’s comparing players from the Q or O to W) or complimentary of another league or players who are of other nationalities (that aren’t CHL products, especially WHL).

I admit I have a rooting interest. I also am relatively objective in my opinions and can check my biases. I praise players of all nationalities and criticize players of all nationalities. I follow players from every country and league. So no, you aren’t going to get off accusing me of being biased.

For the record, I supported Canadian players for first overall in the last 5 drafts, and the math says only 4 of them got selected there, unless you want to assert I’m biased towards Canadians. I base decisions for that slot based off the hockey I watch. You? I suspect there is absolutely nothing an American could do to be first on your list, short of playing in the WHL or growing up in Saskatchewan.

It is relatively clear this year that Hagens is the best player in the draft. It has been known for a few years. He has outplayed all the anointed challengers in these head to head tournaments. He has also had an impressive draft season. Of course, the Canadians can’t just let someone else have it. They need to be the best every year, even when their players have very short resumes in comparison to the competition. Maybe they’ll be a brave team this year like Montreal in 2022 that was willing to buck the trend and select the best player instead of the anointed Canadian candidate.

I don't hide that I'm a WHL person as I scout them in bantam before they're even WHL picks let alone nhl picks and only put out a WHL ranking list. I bashed Lindstrom more than anyone last year before his injury and had him in the teens-20s through last year even without the injury risk. Wasn't a fan of Yamamoto, Jarvis or Schmidt this year relative to others. I was the biggest Dorofeyev fan on here his draft year and wouldn't taken him in the 1st. But yes most of the hockey I watch is the WHL or future WHL players in Bantam and Midget so I know them well. Mathews and Hughes were my top players for their drafts. What I've seen on instat of the top players this year the CHL guys are simply the best atm, we'll see who has success going forward but looking good for Canada vs the rest atm for this year. 2026 could be different(looking like another really strong WHL crop though).

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Who the hell cares? it was one goal. Akiil Thomas scored the game winning goal at the WJC and he was never going to be anything. Hagens was good but nothing special. Martone might have looked just as good if the coach wasn't an imbecile.

Okay well he had 5 goals at the tournament.

It’s just funny. So he plays well against the bad teams, but that was against the bad teams, so it doesn’t count. Okay well, he did play well against the good teams too. But no, doesn’t count either. Akil Thomas once did that too.

Okay well, at least he had a good overall tournament and he didn’t really do anything to hurt his stock (let alone raise it with one of the best tournaments in memory for a draft eligible). Nope, Porter Martone would’ve done better if his coach wasn’t incompetent.

Clearly cannot win and is just not being given a fair shake.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Just looks like a weak ass draft to me and scouts going for what they believe is the safest players. They can be wrong.

I pointed it out in another discussion earlier today, but this is not one draft. It’s four age groups. 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007. The data shows it’s a trend. The way things are going it’ll be 25+ Canadians and CHL’ers in 2026.

 

[leafs4life94]

Hagens is almost a full year older, is not having a barn burner of a season, started the season as the favourite for first overall and hasn't pulled away.

If that damn net doesn't appear out of nowhere this is a nothing conversation. Leading up to the WJC Schaefer had played well enough to pass Hagens.

Why does Schaefer not playing another game hurt his stock? If Hagens goes nuclear the rest of the year he can absolutely catch up, but just because Schaefer is hurt for 3 months doesn't mean he's going to be a worse player over the next 20 years of his career.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Hagens is almost a full year older, is not having a barn burner of a season, started the season as the favourite for first overall and hasn't pulled away.

If that damn net doesn't appear out of nowhere this is a nothing conversation. Leading up to the WJC Schaefer had played well enough to pass Hagens.

Why does Schaefer not playing another game hurt his stock? If Hagens goes nuclear the rest of the year he can absolutely catch up, but just because Schaefer is hurt for 3 months doesn't mean he's going to be a worse player over the next 20 years of his career.

What has Schaefer done to pass Hagens? Because this is never cited. It’s almost like there’s nothing that’s happened and we have to all just talk about generalities surrounding him and nothing substantive.

You want to say Hagens hasn’t put up the best or second best draft eligible season in the NCAA in recent memory and is merely having a top 5 or so season for a draft eligible? Okay well, let’s hold Schaefer to the same standard (should he even higher, given he had more he needed to prove).

Why hasn’t Schaefer had the best draft eligible season for an OHL player in recent memory? Heck, is he even having the best draft eligible season currently for an OHL player. I’d argue he’s having the third best this year of OHL players.

How does that get you a player who has done enough to jump from barely top 10 to a unanimous 1OA after 17 games?

Almost like the outcome is fixed and merit doesn’t matter here.

 

[WarriorofTime]

What has Schaefer done to pass Hagens? Because this is never cited. It’s almost like there’s nothing that’s happened and we have to all just talk about generalities surrounding him and nothing substantive.

You want to say Hagens hasn’t put up the best or second best draft eligible season in the NCAA in recent memory and is merely having a top 5 or so season for a draft eligible? Okay well, let’s hold Schaefer to the same standard (should he even higher, given he had more he needed to prove).

Why hasn’t Schaefer had the best draft eligible season for an OHL player in recent memory? Heck, is he even having the best draft eligible season currently for an OHL player. I’d argue he’s having the third best this year of OHL players.

How does that get you a player who has done enough to jump from barely top 10 to a unanimous 1OA after 17 games?

Almost like the outcome is fixed and merit doesn’t matter here.

Schaefer was like consensus fourth on a lot of lists preseason

 

[leafs4life94]

What has Schaefer done to pass Hagens? Because this is never cited. It’s almost like there’s nothing that’s happened and we have to all just talk about generalities surrounding him and nothing substantive.

You want to say Hagens hasn’t put up the best or second best draft eligible season in the NCAA in recent memory and is merely having a top 5 or so season for a draft eligible? Okay well, let’s hold Schaefer to the same standard (should he even higher, given he had more he needed to prove).

Why hasn’t Schaefer had the best draft eligible season for an OHL player in recent memory? Heck, is he even having the best draft eligible season currently for an OHL player. I’d argue he’s having the third best this year of OHL players.

How does that get you a player who has done enough to jump from barely top 10 to a unanimous 1OA after 17 games?

Almost like the outcome is fixed and merit doesn’t matter here.

Now I know you're being obtuse on purpose. Who the hell had Schaefer as barely top 10? The same damn scouts had him at number 2 on Bob's list in September.

Nah that can't be it, it's all a giant conspiracy and the rest of the world is wrong.

 

[Golden_Jet]

That article was absolutely sycophantic.

These NHL decision makers said that Matt Schaefer, who was viewed as not even being close to a first overall selection, doesn’t need to play another game this season. 17 games against future cooks and cleaners in a junior hockey league is all they need to see.

Meanwhile, Hagens was one of the best players at the World Juniors. 1C for the Gold Medal Winners, and somehow his stock drops relative to a player who played 1 and a half games there.

It’s a fixed outcome. There’s nothing anyone can do for the draft. They decide the slots they want and then they give everyone else the rest to fight over.

It’s become pretty stark. It was never like this and this is in the worst period for their hockey maybe ever. 20 Canadian players in the first round? They are saying that 63% of the best talents in this draft are of one nationality. Canada may not even have the best senior national team anymore (their odds to win the Olympics for instance if everyone is allowed to play can’t be more than like 25%), but they have 63% of the good players?

Always with the conspiracy theories, barely top 10

 

[Lumber]

Looking at the possibilities within the 2025 Draft and the last two NHL Drafts doesn't do much for the reputation of Hockey Canada. I know that Bedard and Celebrini were not going to play in the 2025 U20 championship but come on. I could pick a team from the other first round draft choices and do better especially by using players in their proper roles, something that the coaching staff didn't do at Christmas time.

 

[LilLeeroy]

yeah it's not like Schaefer didn't go 1st overall in the OHL draft and been highly thought of for years....but hey his haters/Hagens homers will try and use last years numbers where he had a smaller role and was dealing with a bunch off the ice as proof he doesn't have a long resume of elite play.

Your Hagens goggles blind you to the fact he simply wasn't that good at the WJCs and simply stat padded vs the weak teams. Did absolutely nothing vs the top teams and when I watch him in the NCAA he looks solid but he doesn't dominate and is usually the 3rd wheel. You also use the crutch of international play when comparing Hagens to Schaefer when league play matters more and Hagens has simply been underwhelming from both a numbers and eye test this year compared to what was expected of him. FWIW Hagens is 3rd for me behind Schaefer and Misa so not like I don't think he'll be a great player. It's a good year for the CHL and weak basically everywhere else so yeah it'll be heavy CHL. You use the WJCs as the only bar for comparing countries which is very dumb. NHL teams don't care where players come from(as long as they're willing to come over/sign) they just want the best players who fit their team.


As for the actual rankings fairly accurate from the WHL perspective and nice seeing 11 in the top 30, will be strong class again next year also out west.

Hagens definitely isn't the 3rd wheel on BC and has been consistently their best player on the best team in the country (maybe besides Fowler). Why do you feel his has been underwhelming? Sounds like you haven't watched many games.