Pre-Game Talk: Blues vs Avalanche - Round 1 Discussion

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Vincenzo Arelliti

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Oct 13, 2014
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As usual, I seem to be watching a different game than the rest of you.

Did you all think this was going to be easy? This is the best team in the West, and possibly the League. We were never going to sweep them. At best, it was always going to go to 6. Nothing has changed -- for two periods we almost stole game 1 from the home team -- the best team in the West. The result wasn't what we wanted, but there were some good signs in this game. We had sustained pressure and control over the game for varying stretches of time in all three periods despite having Perron out. This game was a lot closer than the score and the shots would have you believe.

Thomas was effective last night, but he, like most of our forwards, struggled to sustain offense. He's on track to be what he was always going to be: a more offensive, less defensive ROR. He won't be hitting that stride until we get out of COVID and he;s not spening half the season injured.

Hoffman should no longer be talked about as poor defensively or soft. If you're still parroting that, you just aren't watching him play. He was good along the boards last night, played good positional defense, and was even physical separating players from the puck on the forecheck and was a contributor to the cycle. Without Perron across from him on the powerplay, though, his effectiveness has been lessened (from guaranteed to score to simply a strong threat to score -- perhaps our only threat if they clog the middle.

Tarasenko can contribute. He played a role on the third line and even had some good chances early on. That's when he'll be most effective considering all the injuries and lack of ice time. While this isn't goal-per-game Vlad, this is a Vlad that most of us didn't expect to get, and he's showing that he can still be highly effective depth in the middle-6.

Faulk had a strong game, but his biggest mistake was taking that penalty 30 seconds into the period. He and Parayko are capable of shutting down the Avs offense if they aren't spending 75% of the game in the d-zone. The biggest issue was coming from our forwards being unable to sustain pressure in the o-zone against COL's forecheck, and not having a way to get set to play defense in the neutral zone due to Colorado's speed in transition. The Blues have to be more aggressive here, and I think they will be as first games are typically more so about feeling each other out and trying not to let up a back-breaking breakaway.

Kyrou continues to score. We need to try to utilize him more. He also has been struggling with puck control and playing defense along the boards. If he can get some help or start creating his own offense from the d-zone like he has shown he is capable of, we have a path to victory. At the end of the day, we will have to outscore Colorado and rely on Binnington to be Binnington, but we can't do that if we don't have any sustained pressure or breakaways.

O'Reilly is the real deal. If he doesn't take that unavoidable penalty, I believe we are able to hold off the powerplay as Bozak doesn't get beat by Makar if he's ROR. Then the Blues have a 1-0 game in their favor entering the 3rd. That doesn't mean we win, but I think that underlines just how close this game actually was until things fell apart in the third.

Speaking of the third, Colorado looked gassed at one point. We can wear this team down. We aren't elite at it like in 2019, but we are still capable of bringing the game down to our speed. Some nights Mackinnon is just going to beat you, and last night was an example of that. Even when he wasn't on the ice, the effects from his previous shift were still being felt as Colorado's depth was able to take advantage of the easier zone starts. Bozak has got to be better on the dot in key situations if we're going to counter that.

The 4th line played well, and Barbashev is showing that he can play a complete game in a top-9 role. We'll need a ll the depth scoring we can get, so that's a good sign. In a similar fashion, Jaden Schwartz has got to start showing up -- whether on the score sheet or not. We rely on him for so much that specifically counters Colorado's game. He's got to be effective, but I'm not sure if he can do that while also having to play against Rantanen and Landeskog. Having Perron here helps a ton.

I still think there's a way the Blues win this. They weren't ever going to sweep Colorado. The question was always going to be if Colorado's first line could dominate enough games to win them the round. The Blues have shown they can limit that, and with Binnington playing the way he is, I think that Colorado won't be able to win 4 without having their depth be put under the microscope (not just goalscoring, but being able to drive the play from the d-zone when their top-line isn't carrying the transition for them). With Perron out, things do not look good, but if ROR can find a way to limit that top-line, our depth can outshine theirs as we wear them down.
 

Stupendous Yappi

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Binnington was deliberately stopping play as much as possible. He was fantastic with his rebound control. But when the Blues are rolling, he’s making the save then quickly throwing the puck out to a defender to start the counter-attack. The strategy last night was not going to allow for that. I wonder if we’d see a different approach at home, or if this is just how the Blues need to play Colorado. But I think the need to go this direction really underscores the horses this Blues team is missing.

I’d never have believed it when the season started, but the Blues really missed Walman’s speed and skating out there. Maybe Dunn can offset that some if he’s back next game. But Mikkola and Bortuzzo are not regular starters on a good healthy version of this team.
 

simon IC

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If Perron/Walman stay on protocol, I wanna see this tomorrow. What we had going last night clearly wasn’t working.

Kyrou-O’Reilly-Bozak
Schwartz-Schenn-Hoffman
Kostin-Thomas-Tarasenko
Sanford-Barbashev-Blais

Krug-Parayko
Scandella-Faulk
Dunn-Bortuzzo/Mikkola
Is Dunn back? I haven't heard anything about that. For that 3rd RD spot, I would rather have Bortuzzo than Mikkola. I know Niko is faster, but he has been pretty shaky this season, and I wouldn't be surprised if his confidence was low. Playing Mikkola on his off-side doesn't sound like a good idea to me. I understand Bortuzzo has been criticized for being too slow for this series, but I think that has been exaggerated. Even if his lack of speed is a liability, (which I am questioning), that could be mitigated with limited, selective usage.
 
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TheDizee

Trade Jordan Kyrou ASAP | ALWAYS RIGHT
Apr 5, 2014
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mackinnon cries to the refs more than any other player i can remember.
 
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TheDizee

Trade Jordan Kyrou ASAP | ALWAYS RIGHT
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Is Dunn back? I haven't heard anything about that. For that 3rd RD spot, I would rather have Bortuzzo than Mikkola. I know Niko is faster, but he has been pretty shaky this season, and I wouldn't be surprised if his confidence was low. Playing Mikkola on his off-side doesn't sound like a good idea to me. I understand Bortuzzo has been criticized for being too slow for this series, but I think that has been exaggerated. Even if his lack of speed is a liability, (which I am questioning), that could be mitigated with limited, selective usage.
chief say dunn was ok today so i guess we will see tomorrow
 

CaliforniaBlues310

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Apr 9, 2013
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Is Dunn back? I haven't heard anything about that. For that 3rd RD spot, I would rather have Bortuzzo than Mikkola. I know Niko is faster, but he has been pretty shaky this season, and I wouldn't be surprised if his confidence was low. Playing Mikkola on his off-side doesn't sound like a good idea to me. I understand Bortuzzo has been criticized for being too slow for this series, but I think that has been exaggerated. Even if his lack of speed is a liability, (which I am questioning), that could be mitigated with limited, selective usage.

I know Dunn was in line rushes yesterday for practice, and practiced again today.

I’d also rather have Bortz in, but that’s mainly because we already know him and Dunn work well together.
 
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TheDizee

Trade Jordan Kyrou ASAP | ALWAYS RIGHT
Apr 5, 2014
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Wow already wrong lol
u cant sense sarcasm, i already picked my 1st round picks. sadly i picked them before the covid perron news but i will still stick with my pick which was BLUES IN 7
 

mk80

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If it were up to me I'd consider playing Kostin instead of Clifford next game. We need as much offense as we can get, so it might be worth it to see if Kostin can provide a spark.
I actually thought Kostin would have been better to start last night too. He's a big body, didn't seem to shy away from physicality, he's got confidence coming off his KHL win. And in the game I went to against the Wild, they had a hard time knocking Kostin off the puck a few times, sure different opponent but still.
 
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mk80

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Jul 30, 2012
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If Perron/Walman stay on protocol, I wanna see this tomorrow. What we had going last night clearly wasn’t working.

Kyrou-O’Reilly-Bozak
Schwartz-Schenn-Hoffman
Kostin-Thomas-Tarasenko
Sanford-Barbashev-Blais

Krug-Parayko
Scandella-Faulk
Dunn-Bortuzzo/Mikkola

The latest update on the two that I can find is this:


Considering the Blues put out a statement saying Walman was positive and haven't for Perron. I'm remaining optimistic that no further news is good news and he could test out of protocol for tomorrow.

If not though, I like the look of these lines. Dunn returning we be a much needed boost to the defense.
 

Xerloris

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Jun 9, 2015
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I think we need to put Bozak on left circle for the PP. To make Hoffman effective you have to put a threat for one-timers on the opposite side and unless Kyrou can do that then Bozak is the best option.
 

shpongle falls

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Oct 1, 2014
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I think maybe they should try the Schwarschennko line again and see if they can recapture some magic in the playoffs, scratch Sanford and put in Kostin for Clifford for a game and see how he looks. So assuming we get Perron back we can roll 4 lines all night:

Blais-O'Rielly-Perron
Schwartz-Schenn-Tarasenko
Hoffman-Thomas-Kyrou
Barbashev-Bozak-Kostin

We better get Perron back soon dammit
 
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Bye Bye Blueston

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The latest update on the two that I can find is this:


Considering the Blues put out a statement saying Walman was positive and haven't for Perron. I'm remaining optimistic that no further news is good news and he could test out of protocol for tomorrow.

If not though, I like the look of these lines. Dunn returning we be a much needed boost to the defense.

Blues said they were confident Walman was false positive bc he was asymptotic and vaccinated. He seems to have rare case of covid while vaccinated. It’s been reported that 8 Blues refused vaccine. Wonder if silence on Perron means he was one who refused and now has covid?
 

Stupendous Yappi

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Blues said they were confident Walman was false positive bc he was asymptotic and vaccinated. He seems to have rare case of covid while vaccinated. It’s been reported that 8 Blues refused vaccine. Wonder if silence on Perron means he was one who refused and now has covid?
8 players? (Where was that reported?) Makes me think it’s likely Perron was among them. I’m less sympathetic about a guy having to sit out due to the protocol if he refused the vaccine and later came down with Covid.

Blech, this season had some high points, but mostly it’s been frustrating. This is just more of the same.
 

Ranksu

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Blues said they were confident Walman was false positive bc he was asymptotic and vaccinated. He seems to have rare case of covid while vaccinated. It’s been reported that 8 Blues refused vaccine. Wonder if silence on Perron means he was one who refused and now has covid?
That is failure to decline vaccine. Are ppl that stupid in america?
 

Reality Czech

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Apr 17, 2017
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As usual, I seem to be watching a different game than the rest of you.

Did you all think this was going to be easy? This is the best team in the West, and possibly the League. We were never going to sweep them. At best, it was always going to go to 6. Nothing has changed -- for two periods we almost stole game 1 from the home team -- the best team in the West. The result wasn't what we wanted, but there were some good signs in this game. We had sustained pressure and control over the game for varying stretches of time in all three periods despite having Perron out. This game was a lot closer than the score and the shots would have you believe.

Thomas was effective last night, but he, like most of our forwards, struggled to sustain offense. He's on track to be what he was always going to be: a more offensive, less defensive ROR. He won't be hitting that stride until we get out of COVID and he;s not spening half the season injured.

Hoffman should no longer be talked about as poor defensively or soft. If you're still parroting that, you just aren't watching him play. He was good along the boards last night, played good positional defense, and was even physical separating players from the puck on the forecheck and was a contributor to the cycle. Without Perron across from him on the powerplay, though, his effectiveness has been lessened (from guaranteed to score to simply a strong threat to score -- perhaps our only threat if they clog the middle.

Tarasenko can contribute. He played a role on the third line and even had some good chances early on. That's when he'll be most effective considering all the injuries and lack of ice time. While this isn't goal-per-game Vlad, this is a Vlad that most of us didn't expect to get, and he's showing that he can still be highly effective depth in the middle-6.

Faulk had a strong game, but his biggest mistake was taking that penalty 30 seconds into the period. He and Parayko are capable of shutting down the Avs offense if they aren't spending 75% of the game in the d-zone. The biggest issue was coming from our forwards being unable to sustain pressure in the o-zone against COL's forecheck, and not having a way to get set to play defense in the neutral zone due to Colorado's speed in transition. The Blues have to be more aggressive here, and I think they will be as first games are typically more so about feeling each other out and trying not to let up a back-breaking breakaway.

Kyrou continues to score. We need to try to utilize him more. He also has been struggling with puck control and playing defense along the boards. If he can get some help or start creating his own offense from the d-zone like he has shown he is capable of, we have a path to victory. At the end of the day, we will have to outscore Colorado and rely on Binnington to be Binnington, but we can't do that if we don't have any sustained pressure or breakaways.

O'Reilly is the real deal. If he doesn't take that unavoidable penalty, I believe we are able to hold off the powerplay as Bozak doesn't get beat by Makar if he's ROR. Then the Blues have a 1-0 game in their favor entering the 3rd. That doesn't mean we win, but I think that underlines just how close this game actually was until things fell apart in the third.

Speaking of the third, Colorado looked gassed at one point. We can wear this team down. We aren't elite at it like in 2019, but we are still capable of bringing the game down to our speed. Some nights Mackinnon is just going to beat you, and last night was an example of that. Even when he wasn't on the ice, the effects from his previous shift were still being felt as Colorado's depth was able to take advantage of the easier zone starts. Bozak has got to be better on the dot in key situations if we're going to counter that.

The 4th line played well, and Barbashev is showing that he can play a complete game in a top-9 role. We'll need a ll the depth scoring we can get, so that's a good sign. In a similar fashion, Jaden Schwartz has got to start showing up -- whether on the score sheet or not. We rely on him for so much that specifically counters Colorado's game. He's got to be effective, but I'm not sure if he can do that while also having to play against Rantanen and Landeskog. Having Perron here helps a ton.

I still think there's a way the Blues win this. They weren't ever going to sweep Colorado. The question was always going to be if Colorado's first line could dominate enough games to win them the round. The Blues have shown they can limit that, and with Binnington playing the way he is, I think that Colorado won't be able to win 4 without having their depth be put under the microscope (not just goalscoring, but being able to drive the play from the d-zone when their top-line isn't carrying the transition for them). With Perron out, things do not look good, but if ROR can find a way to limit that top-line, our depth can outshine theirs as we wear them down.

Great post. The difference between winning and losing is often very slim, but on this forum it sure doesn't seem like it. Fans demand perfection every game. Sometimes you just have to admit you lost to the better team, despite out best efforts. If they win Game 2, then all will be forgotten.
 

Davimir Tarablad

Registered User
Sep 16, 2015
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Blues said they were confident Walman was false positive bc he was asymptotic and vaccinated. He seems to have rare case of covid while vaccinated. It’s been reported that 8 Blues refused vaccine. Wonder if silence on Perron means he was one who refused and now has covid?
If that report is correct, I'd also be curious if players are flat out refusing, or if they wanted to wait for the season to complete before receiving it.
 

Bye Bye Blueston

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8 players? (Where was that reported?) Makes me think it’s likely Perron was among them. I’m less sympathetic about a guy having to sit out due to the protocol if he refused the vaccine and later came down with Covid.

Blech, this season had some high points, but mostly it’s been frustrating. This is just more of the same.
JR reported in article about Perron being on list: “The team confirmed earlier this season that everyone in the traveling party — players, staff and additional employees — was offered the vaccine, though multiple sources have told The Athletic that eight players declined. The names of those vaccinated and not vaccinated aren’t available.”
 

WeWentBlues

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May 3, 2017
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North Division playoffs haven't even started yet. Remind me again why the Blues and Avs had to start on Monday? There are no other events booked at Ball Arena or Enterprise Center for the foreseeable future so it's not a venue availability issue. The sanctity of the 2/3/2 format could have been preserved.

The TV schedule? Shoot. The NHL changes that on the fly as it is. A large chunk of Monday's game wouldn't have been televised had Marchand not scored 39 seconds into OT.
 
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I am going to be so pissed if Perron missed game 1 because the league can’t get its testing squared away. Completely unacceptable.
 

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Brian39

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Apr 24, 2014
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As usual, I seem to be watching a different game than the rest of you.

Did you all think this was going to be easy? This is the best team in the West, and possibly the League. We were never going to sweep them. At best, it was always going to go to 6. Nothing has changed -- for two periods we almost stole game 1 from the home team -- the best team in the West. The result wasn't what we wanted, but there were some good signs in this game. We had sustained pressure and control over the game for varying stretches of time in all three periods despite having Perron out. This game was a lot closer than the score and the shots would have you believe.

I'm absolutely not saying that 1 game makes a series or that we are done because of game 1. But I don't see how you can argue that we weren't throttled on Monday. Every possession/expected metric was at least 65% in favor of the Avs with most of them being above 70%. At 5 on 5, high danger chances were 12-5, scoring chances were 36-15 and expected goals were 2.83-1.12. Those numbers get significantly worse if you factor in special teams time. In all situations, high danger chances were 16-5, scoring chances were 44-19 and expected goals were 4.61-1.59.

Yes, the Avs did pad their shot/attempt count by lobbing some muffins at Binner, but they also got a ton of high quality chances. Binner made at least the best 3 saves of the night (the 2-0, the Jost breakaway, and the 1st period Landy cut across backhand + MacKinnon rebound). He had a couple other stops (3rd period Saad redirection and a 3rd period blocker save on (I believe) Compher that were right on par with Grubauer's best of the night (blocker save on Hoffman and the flipper pad save on Kyrou). Binner was incredibly good and kept the score lower than an average goaltending performance would have. Each team hit a post.

That game was absolutely not closer than the score or shots suggest. That is about as lopsided as playoff games get. We had a few stretches where we dictated play, but we got handily outplayed for all but a couple 10 minute stretches. That happened a couple times against Boston in 2019, so I'm not saying that this game guarantees doom. But this was an exceptionally good Avs team dominating the Blues.

Thomas was effective last night, but he, like most of our forwards, struggled to sustain offense. He's on track to be what he was always going to be: a more offensive, less defensive ROR. He won't be hitting that stride until we get out of COVID and he;s not spening half the season injured.

ROR entered the a year earlier than Thomas. In his 3rd season, he had 55 points as a 20/21 year old. ROR's 21/22 year old season was the lockout year and he held out the start of the season due to a contract dispute. He eventually returned and played 29 games. He scored at a 56 point pace in those 29 games. Thomas turns 22 this summer and is coming off a season where he was on pace for 30 points. I'm not at all starting alarm bells about Thomas' long-term development, but I don't see how you can say he is on track to develop into a more offensive player than ROR. ROR has had 3 straight seasons as a 70+ point pace player and has been a 60+ point pace player in 7 of his last 8 seasons. That is high level production and I don't think you can argue that a prospect with 87 points in his first 169 games (42 point pace) is on track to exceed that. He certainly could, but his 6 points in 12 games before injury this year don't suggest that he was trending toward the breakout 3rd year that ROR saw and you often see with high end offensive guys. I'm still bullish on Thomas' long term potential, but I don't think it is accurate to say he is perfectly on track to be a perennial 70 point guy who tops 80 a few times.

I still think there's a way the Blues win this. They weren't ever going to sweep Colorado. The question was always going to be if Colorado's first line could dominate enough games to win them the round. The Blues have shown they can limit that, and with Binnington playing the way he is, I think that Colorado won't be able to win 4 without having their depth be put under the microscope (not just goalscoring, but being able to drive the play from the d-zone when their top-line isn't carrying the transition for them). With Perron out, things do not look good, but if ROR can find a way to limit that top-line, our depth can outshine theirs as we wear them down.
Again, there is absolutely still a way the Blues win this, but I disagree that the Blues have shown that they can limit the top line enough to do so. Their top line outscored us 2-0 at 5 on 5 in game 1 and had an 83% xGF%. MacKinnon has 17 points in 9 games against us this year.

I don't buy the argument that the top line drives possession to the point that their entire bottom 9 relies on it. Landeskog/MacKinnon/Rantanen played 13:37 at 5 on 5 in game 1. That's just not enough to set up the other 3 lines with favorable zone starts. Thier bottom 9 absolutely dominated the possession game on Monday and it was not simply a result of getting nice zone starts. That contributed to the level of dominance, but I think that their depth did exactly the type of lifting you are referring to last night. We are in big trouble if the Avs entire team plays like they did in game 1.

I agree with pretty much the entire rest of your post, especially the stuff about Hoffman. He hasn't been good defensively, but he is putting the effort in and has been adequate.
 
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