Confirmed with Link: Blues sign 2 Oilers to offer sheets!

[Majorityof1]

Oilers fans are some Bitter Folks

Can you blame them? I'd be pretty salty if this was done to us.

 

[ort]

This is definitely a dick move by the Blues.

I kinda like it but I also kinda don't.

 

[Bobby Orrtuzzo]

This is definitely a dick move by the Blues.

I kinda like it but I also kinda don't.

Honestly, I love it if for no other reason it’s the first thing that piece of shit Stan Bowman has to deal with as their GM.

 

[The Note]

The Blues don’t owe the Oilers - or any other team - anything at all. Armstrong saw an opportunity to help the rebuild and, at the same time, take from one of the contenders in the conference. It makes perfect sense.

Having said that, I totally get why Oilers fans are mad. They’re smack dab in the middle of their window to win a Cup with a generational talent and some also-ran team years away from doing anything put them in a real jam. Of course they’re pissed, and I suspect anyone who says they wouldn’t be real mad if the roles were reversed is lying.

 

[ottawah]

With Holloway, the tough part is, how do they handle losing Broberg? I think they can cheap out on forwards and be fine, but for defense, do they just go with what they have internally, or do they need to sign a free agent to fill what Broberg was going to bring? If so, how much will that cost?

Edmonton fan perspective.

Edmonton was extraordinairly close to winning the cup last year, largely based on their defensive game. Broberg was not a part of that until the end when they sat Desharnais. Even then, the more he played, the more the team tended to lose. He played second pairing minutes the first 3 games of the finals, they lost all three. He went to third pairing minutes, and Edmonton won 3 of 4. So he was not an integral piece of their D last last year.

Effectively he was to take Desharnais's spot this year. Not ideal being off side, but that was likely the plan. Edmonton did retain Stetcher, who if he did not get injured late in the season probably would have negated any chance Broberg even played in the playoffs. So for Edmonton, do you retain the D that last year was very solid (9th GA regular season, 5th if you take out that idiotic 2-9 start ....), was tied for GA with Florida in the playoffs and ran a historic playoff PK? Or do you match on Broberg, trade 2 of the D (Kulak and Ceci, meaning you lose 1/2 of the D from last year) replacing them with league minimum players (for shutdown D and PK work) and even then likely have to trade a forward to make it all work. I think if Broberg was a RHD, that would change the conversation but Edmonton is strong on the left hand side, hence why Broberg has been having issues cracking the lineup.

Edmontons window is closing, Draisatl has not resigned, and even if he does new deals for him, Bouchard and McDavid will essential gut the team of most complementary players. Aging, especially on D will start to set in in the next year or two. It seems like far too much a risk to completely revamp the D around what thus far has been a fringe NHLer when you were one goal from a stanley cup.


As for Holloway, that number if manageable. If Edmonton runs with Stecher instead of what they expected to pay Broberg, the difference is pretty close to the difference between what they penciled Holloway in for in the first place, so that decision is simply about Holloway, with minimal regard to the cap.

Oh yeah, give it a few years for karma, I'm sure payback is planned

 

[ChicagoBlues]

Can you blame them? I'd be pretty salty if this was done to us.

I understand this, but the Oilers did this to themselves. We simply obliged the lemming push that they wanted.

This is definitely a dick move by the Blues.

I kinda like it but I also kinda don't.

f*** that. This is the same weak mentality that Coach Q had regarding Sakic and his bum shoulder.

Step on their throats and finish the job. f*** them.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

Edmonton fan perspective.

Oh yeah, give it a few years for karma, I'm sure payback is planned

Doug Armstrong and the Blues will move forward just fine laughing all the way.

It is the Edmonton Oilers and their net negativity that have put themselves in this situation.

But go ahead and stay pissed Oilers Nation!!! You shall be bent over again. Stay in your negativity and you will karmalize negativity for y'allselves.

Toodles!

 

[Brian39]

I didn't have time to put my thoughts into writing yesterday, but my opinion matches the consensus here. This was a great move by Army and puts Edmonton into an incredibly tough position. The money (especially on Broberg) is an overpay, but that is part of the cost of an offer sheet. You need to disincentivize the other team from matching and the only ways to do that without giving up high value draft compensation is by making the contract financially unappealing. We are in a position to 'overpay' for a couple years and they are still RFAs at the end.

We have the cap space, so the only real downside here is money out of ownership's pocket. This completely erases any and all concerns I had that some recent decisions have been motivated by an unwillingness to spend money while the team was in transition. Once again, props to Stillman and the rest of the group for giving the front office the financial resources it needs.

I think we have a pretty good chance of getting at least one of them. Edmonton could clear the space to keep both, but it would be uncomfortable.

As of today, Puck Pedia shows them at $7.225M over the cap with a 23 man roster that includes Broberg and Holloway. Let's assume Kane starts the year on LTIR. I'm not sold he's a season-long injury candidate, but it at least buys them time to kick this can down the road a bit. Depending on how they shift guys around entering the season, Kane to LTIR will buy them around $5M in space.

That puts them about $2.25M over the cap with 22 guys on the roster.

Realistically, Arvidsson, Henrique, Ceci, and Kulak are the only candidates to clear space. Moving any single one of these 4 guys would give them enough space to keep both and be cap compliant with a 21 man roster. Trading a vet like Arvidsson or Henrique weeks after signing them as a UFA would be a brutal look, so I think it comes down to moving one of Ceci or Kulak.

It's doable. However, that is only the work to get yourself compliant to open the season. Kane coming back mid-season would necessitate moving at least one more guy (and potentially 2). If Kane isn't hurt for the entire regular season, keeping both probably requires moving 2 of Ceci, Kulak, Arvidsson, and Henrique by playoffs, ensures that they have/bank no cap space for a rental, and limits them to a 21 man roster all year. Those are tough pills to swallow for a team in clear win-now mode.

And then you get to 2025/26. Assuming a $4.75M cap increase, they are currently sitting on just $23.5M of cap space for 2025/26. Sounds like a lot, but they need to extend/replace Drai, Bouchard, Skinner, and a handful of depth guys with that money.

There is no scenario where Bouchard gets less than $9M a year. A team would only have to give up a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, to get him at $9.1M x 5 years and that's a slam dunk trade. He'll be 26 in year 1 of that deal, so he's not leaving AAV dollars on the table to sell Edmonton his age 31-33 seasons instead of taking a 5 year offer sheet that lets him hit UFA as a 30 year old. $9M is the absolute floor and realistically he should be able to get $10M+.

There is no scenario where Drai is taking less than $12.5M. McDavid's current $12.5M is now 3rd highest in the league and Matthews re-set the bar at $13.25M. No way Leon takes less than what McDavid has been at for over half a decade. Drai can legitimately push to re-set the bar above Matthews, but he is absolutely coming in at or above McDavid's current deal.

Edmonton just has to pencil in $22M for the 2 of them in 2025/26, which eats up almost all the remaining cap if they keep both Broberg and Holloway (who can't be traded until mid-August of 2025 if they match).

That means that they need to move another middle-of-the-lineup player next summer if they match both, just to fill a roster with league minimum guys.

Obviously there are too many moving parts, but keeping both would require Edmonton to actively shed 3 legit middle-lineup players AND replace a couple additional depth spots with league-minimum guys instead of depth guys who demand $1-$2M. I'm not convinced that's worth it for two guys who offer more medium-long term upside than immediate upside. Especially since if they do pan out how you hope, they will both be due hefty raises the summer of 2026 when the best player in the world is due a raise.

I think that they will keep one, but I think the cost of keeping both will be too high for them. These offer sheets were structured absolutely perfectly.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

I do have to admit, while Reports were saying we wanted to restructure our defense I didn't exactly think we would or be able to. But so far we have added multiple players that have styles that was perfer and we are attempting to snag a young player who may have untapped potential. I'm excited

 

[Brockon]

Not sure exactly how a trade would look, but one way I can see Bowman digging his way out of this situation is trading E Kane to MTL for the Carey Price contract.

Kane has to go to make it work, simply because you can only exceed the cap by 10% in the off-season (so 96.8m). Price's guaranteed 10.5m in LTIR for the next 2 seasons would actually open up cap space for the Oilers to match both offer sheets with a net gain of ~3.6m in cap space as of opening night LTIR taking effect. They would need to shed ~4m more in cap space - which is going to cost them out the nose (especially if Montreal retains that amount) ... But there is some possibility there.

There's also the option to explore something with Utah for the last 2 years of the Weber contract's ~7.85m for 2 years to similar effect. Again, Kane needs to go and then another ~2.5m needs to be accounted for via retention, a cap dump of Kulak or letting Holloway come over.

I'd hope that if Bill Armstrong or Kent Hughes pick up the phone without laughing then hanging up, that the ask starts at the next 3 1sts and handicaps the Oilers moving forward anyways (because they can't seem to draft outside the first round to begin with).

 

[Ranksu]

 

[Brockon]

I think there's probably been some degree of talk between other GMs about how to bury Bowman with a welcome back gift, because it's felt he brings them a bad name with his actions around the 2010 situation (whether you believe it was deliberate willful ignorance or something more involved).

Nothing concrete, but at least assuring them that Army won't be targeting their RFAs to avoid opening St Louis up to offer sheets from other teams.

 

[Brian39]

Edmonton fan perspective.

Edmonton was extraordinairly close to winning the cup last year, largely based on their defensive game. Broberg was not a part of that until the end when they sat Desharnais. Even then, the more he played, the more the team tended to lose. He played second pairing minutes the first 3 games of the finals, they lost all three. He went to third pairing minutes, and Edmonton won 3 of 4. So he was not an integral piece of their D last last year.

Effectively he was to take Desharnais's spot this year. Not ideal being off side, but that was likely the plan.

Broberg averaged 16:59 a night in games 1-3 and 17:23 a night in games 4-6. His 14:37 in game 7 was his lowest TOI in the Final. He started the series paired with Kulak, which is exactly the 'taking Desharnais' role" spot you describe. It wasn't successful and for game 3 he got paired with Nurse (where he promptly scored a goal and went +1). He then remained on a pair with Nurse for the rest of the Final and Edmonton was able to do a much better job rolling 3 pairs.

I have a hard time describing that as 'he went from 2nd pair usage to 3rd pair usage.' I don't see any reason to believe that Broberg was getting penciled into the Desharnais role that they promptly took him out of in the Final after going down 0-2. I'd wager that the plan was to have him play a good chunk of minutes with Nurse this year.

Edmonton did retain Stetcher, who if he did not get injured late in the season probably would have negated any chance Broberg even played in the playoffs. So for Edmonton, do you retain the D that last year was very solid (9th GA regular season, 5th if you take out that idiotic 2-9 start ....), was tied for GA with Florida in the playoffs and ran a historic playoff PK? Or do you match on Broberg, trade 2 of the D (Kulak and Ceci, meaning you lose 1/2 of the D from last year) replacing them with league minimum players (for shutdown D and PK work) and even then likely have to trade a forward to make it all work. I think if Broberg was a RHD, that would change the conversation but Edmonton is strong on the left hand side, hence why Broberg has been having issues cracking the lineup.

Edmontons window is closing, Draisatl has not resigned, and even if he does new deals for him, Bouchard and McDavid will essential gut the team of most complementary players. Aging, especially on D will start to set in in the next year or two. It seems like far too much a risk to completely revamp the D around what thus far has been a fringe NHLer when you were one goal from a stanley cup.

I agree that he wasn't set to be a key piece of Edmonton this year and I agree that his role/contribution in the Final has been exaggerated by some. I agree with your assessment that his role/performance right now isn't crucial to Edmonton's success. I think you could keep him by just moving one of Kulak/Ceci, but I agree with you that letting him walk probably causes less disruption. The AAV on this offer sheet is objectively an overpayment for what he has already done in the NHL.

For all of these reasons, I expect Broberg to become a Blue.

As for Holloway, that number if manageable. If Edmonton runs with Stecher instead of what they expected to pay Broberg, the difference is pretty close to the difference between what they penciled Holloway in for in the first place, so that decision is simply about Holloway, with minimal regard to the cap.

Oh yeah, give it a few years for karma, I'm sure payback is planned

I also agree here. I'd like to get both, but Holloway is easier for you guys to keep, the compensation for losing him isn't as good, and he probably has a better 'fit' in your lineup than Broberg. I like him, but I do get the sense that offer-sheeting him is primarily intended to reduce Edmonton's ability/willingness to match on Broberg.

 

[542365]

This is definitely a dick move by the Blues.

I kinda like it but I also kinda don't.

I don’t think it’s a dick move. RFA was created to give young players the opportunity to see their worth around the league and pursue a better opportunity if it’s out there. St. Louis is a better opportunity and better pay for these young players than Edmonton is. It’s no different than joining another company that offers you a better wage and higher position. The better paying company is doing what they can to make themselves an attractive destination. That’s what the Blues are doing.

 

[Brian39]

Not sure exactly how a trade would look, but one way I can see Bowman digging his way out of this situation is trading E Kane to MTL for the Carey Price contract.

Kane has to go to make it work, simply because you can only exceed the cap by 10% in the off-season (so 96.8m). Price's guaranteed 10.5m in LTIR for the next 2 seasons would actually open up cap space for the Oilers to match both offer sheets with a net gain of ~3.6m in cap space as of opening night LTIR taking effect. They would need to shed ~4m more in cap space - which is going to cost them out the nose (especially if Montreal retains that amount) ... But there is some possibility there.

There's also the option to explore something with Utah for the last 2 years of the Weber contract's ~7.85m for 2 years to similar effect. Again, Kane needs to go and then another ~2.5m needs to be accounted for via retention, a cap dump of Kulak or letting Holloway come over.

I'd hope that if Bill Armstrong or Kent Hughes pick up the phone without laughing then hanging up, that the ask starts at the next 3 1sts and handicaps the Oilers moving forward anyways (because they can't seem to draft outside the first round to begin with).

Kane has a full NMC at the moment. On March 1st, it becomes a 16 team approved trade list (but he can still decline waivers). I'd expect him to wield that pretty aggressively because joining the Oilers off LTIR is very likely his best chance at a Cup and his best chance to put up big numbers to maximize value on his next contract.

 

[Mike Liut]

Broberg and Holloway are not key pieces to the Oilers success, and would probably hinder them much more than help them with several key players needing re-signed. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them not match either and take the picks.

 

[Reality Czech]

The Blues don’t owe the Oilers - or any other team - anything at all. Armstrong saw an opportunity to help the rebuild and, at the same time, take from one of the contenders in the conference. It makes perfect sense.

Having said that, I totally get why Oilers fans are mad. They’re smack dab in the middle of their window to win a Cup with a generational talent and some also-ran team years away from doing anything put them in a real jam. Of course they’re pissed, and I suspect anyone who says they wouldn’t be real mad if the roles were reversed is lying.

I would be mad but more at the front office that allowed it to happen rather than the team that is simply using the rules to try and improve their team.

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

Friedman had a 32 Thoughts podcast with background on the offer sheets. It's worth a listen, safe to say Blues did their homework and we're calculated on everything.

Thanks. I was afraid this was going to be vacation season for him because I was hoping to hear some inside spin from Friedman. Will give it a listen.

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

So many people are talking about an "easy" solution of dealing Ceci (plus assets) and putting Kane on LTIR. This completely glosses over the difficulties that this is going to present for the 2025 offseason.

It would be an absolute masterclass if this is all part of a Doug Armstrong long-con and the Blues offer sheet Bouchard at a level that the Oilers are unable to afford next offseason.

 

[Drubilly]

So many people are talking about an "easy" solution of dealing Ceci (plus assets) and putting Kane on LTIR. This completely glosses over the difficulties that this is going to present for the 2025 offseason.

It would be an absolute masterclass if this is all part of a Doug Armstrong long-con and the Blues offer sheet Bouchard at a level that the Oilers are unable to afford next offseason.

I thought of this exact scenario yesterday as well.

 

[Reality Czech]

So many people are talking about an "easy" solution of dealing Ceci (plus assets) and putting Kane on LTIR. This completely glosses over the difficulties that this is going to present for the 2025 offseason.

It would be an absolute masterclass if this is all part of a Doug Armstrong long-con and the Blues offer sheet Bouchard at a level that the Oilers are unable to afford next offseason.

That might lead to a Canadian Bacon-esque invasion of St Louis by angry Oilers fans if that happens.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

That might lead to a Canadian Bacon-esque invasion of St Louis by angry Oilers fans if that happens.

Dipped in Maple Leaf syrup.

Go suck a beer you hosers!!

 

[Itsnotatrap]

The 2nd year and the late timing of it….it’s so brilliantly devious and disruptive.

 

[execwrite1]

Only concern at this point - this is a huge roll of the dice on Broberg.

If he's just not that good, Blues lose big time. The reviews on his potential seem mixed.

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

Only concern at this point - this is a huge roll of the dice on Broberg.

If he's just not that good, Blues lose big time. The reviews on his potential seem mixed.

Do we? It's a two year contract during two seasons where cap space isn't going to be a concern and we're not going to compete for a Cup. All we lose is a 2nd round draft pick which likely has a slim chance of even reaching the point where Broberg is already at in his career.

It's a very, very low risk tradeoff.