Proposal: Blues & Devils

[Jerzey Devil]

Lots of Zacha hate going on here. Hope he proves everyone wrong this year.

 

[bluetuned]

I'm all on board with thinking Army is a derelict. We can't assume to know what his thinking is. I actually believe what Army said about he was asking for too much in trying to trade Shattenkirk at the draft. The derelict part comes into play when he wouldn't budge from the asking price.

JR recently talked about the fact Army didn't want to let assets walk for nothing in free agency. He didn't point to a discussion with Army but it was inferred.

Armstrong is essentially in a no-win situation with Shattenkirk, and I think the lack of a trade represents that.

The guy has one year left on his contract and has made it known that he has a short list of teams he wants to sign with. That immediately brings down the asking price. A team like Edmonton who could desperately use him then balks at a high asking price knowing that he's a rental. Likewise around the rest of the league.

On the other hand, the teams who are on his shortlist balk at the asking price for a trade w/ an extension in place. From their perspective... they can wait a year and have a decent chance at acquiring him for nothing. Why throw a bunch of assets his way if he wants to sign there next summer anyway? Sure it's a risk you don't get him, but is Shattenkirk good enough to warrant it? Maybe. Maybe not.

So where does that leave Armstrong? He's got a very talented player with only moderate trade value. If he keeps him, Shattenkirk helps the team this year but walks for nothing. If he trades him, there is some return, but the Blues are probably worse this year as a result, and it's a year when they hope to have some shot at contending.

 

[VoidCreature]

I don't see it the same way. He hasn't given out that contract in UFA but there's been no elite talent available either. There's a big difference between giving a Shattenkirk a long-term deal at age 28 and giving a Kris Russell a long-term deal at age 28.

and you don't build a team for the next 15 years. If Shero thinks Shattenkirk helps us more over the next ~5 years than Zacha would, he will make that deal. He's not going to be the GM of this team in 10 years, he's not worried about then. We have an elite goaltender that makes it very much worthwhile to contend sooner rather than later so it's certainly a deal I would consider. This is especially given the Hall trade.. it's not something I'd have considered prior to that. We still need offense but our biggest limiting factor going forward is certainly on defense. If Shero thinks this is an opportunity to solve a huge part of that problem, it's worth losing Zacha.

not to mention, the deal in the OP is for more than just Shattenkirk. Barbashev returns us some value and helps offset that loss a little bit, though he's not nearly as good of a prospect.



Shattenkirk (extended, otherwise no shot for anything you listed outside the 2nd pick) straight up? Probably neither. The most I'd consider is Zacha alone but as I said above, I'd like some value coming back with that as well.

I wouldn't do the second deal at all though. That is potentially two premium assets and we can't afford that.

The deal in the OP (minus Sobotka) is pretty much on the money for me as I'm going back and forth whether I'd do it. Without that extra value coming back to us, it's likely a certain no.

There's absolutely nothing that Shero has done with the Devils to suggest he thinks this way. If he was only concerned about the short term we would've played free agency the last couple of years much differently.

I wouldn't be surprised if we weren't even in on a guy like Okposo. Even with the Hall trade, on the conference call Shero mentioned he's "the right age". Even Hall. If Hall had been four years older maybe Shero doesn't make the trade.

As for this "you don't build a team for the next 15 years" business... I don't know what to say. Would you trade Elias' career for anything?

Zacha is the highest forward we've picked in 20 years. He looked like he'd just won the lottery when we drafted him. He has all the makings of a star, something we were craving for so long before Hall, and you want to trade him at the drop of a hat for a 27 year old defenseman. I can't.

 

[Brooklyndevil]

I'll move McLeod, not Zacha. And only if Shatty resigns.

 

[Peter Sidorkiewicz]

Shattenkirk + Sobotka + Barbashev for Zacha + 2017 2nd (higher of the two they own)

I'll take that deal if it can be agreed that Shattenkirk would extend long term with NJ.

Although I think someone like Jaskin would be a better fit on NJ than Sobotka.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

Is Pavel Zacha a god now? A Signed Shattenkirk plus a really good 3C, and a great prospect center that projects to be a 2C? Shattenkirk signed is worth Zacha - not that I think either team makes this trade.

 

[Nocashstyle]

Lots of Zacha hate going on here. Hope he proves everyone wrong this year.

If you don't just stat watch you're doing it wrong.

 

[Eric Sachs]

There's absolutely nothing that Shero has done with the Devils to suggest he thinks this way. If he was only concerned about the short term we would've played free agency the last couple of years much differently.

And maybe we tried?

Like I've said many times already as well, there's a big difference between signing the guys that usually hit UFA and acquiring top end talent like Shattenkirk.

Also not sure how he was supposed to play free agency the last couple of years differently when he's been the Devils GM for literally 15 months now. That's two free agencies when he was doing a lot of other stuff in terms of building the team. I wouldn't be surprised if he's very active next summer.

Short term isn't one year or two years but he's absolutely only concerned about competing in the next ~5 years. That's how long GMs last. This is a job for him, not a passion project. Many of the UFAs don't fit that picture as they will overall hurt us within 5 years with their contracts and deteriorating play.

I wouldn't be surprised if we weren't even in on a guy like Okposo. Even with the Hall trade, on the conference call Shero mentioned he's "the right age". Even Hall. If Hall had been four years older maybe Shero doesn't make the trade.

and maybe he does? not sure how a hypothetical means anything here. He's the right age to fit in with our core, that doesn't mean he wouldn't have been a target to help us compete if he were older.

As for this "you don't build a team for the next 15 years" business... I don't know what to say. Would you trade Elias' career for anything?

I'm not sure what the **** that question even means, it doesn't even make sense. Would I trade Elias' career for anything? Sure. I'd trade it for another 10 Stanley Cups cause hypotheticals and ridiculous questions are fun.

You see.. Shero isn't a fan of the Devils. He's the GM. He could care less about an individual player's career. How Zacha fares over his career is irrelevant for Shero. What's important for him is how Zacha fares for a team he runs. If he gets fired in 3 years because we make no progress, Zacha becoming an all-star is pretty ****ing irrelevant for him. No GM is trying to build a dynasty.. they are all on a known timeline with their owners to produce a contending team. It sounds like Shero has a few years leeway and he's utilizing it appropriately by waiting to go all-in but you can bet there will be a point where he knows his job is on the line and he needs to make moves that aren't necessarily the best long-term.

Zacha is the highest forward we've picked in 20 years. He looked like he'd just won the lottery when we drafted him. He has all the makings of a star, something we were craving for so long before Hall, and you want to trade him at the drop of a hat for a 27 year old defenseman. I can't.

This is just hysterical and completely fabricated. Have you read ANY of my posts in this thread? There's not one post where I said I would trade Zacha for Shattenkirk. Literally not one. I've said a few times that I would heavily consider it but if you can't tell the difference between "heavily consider it" and "at the drop of a hat".. I don't know what to tell you.

 

[VoidCreature]

And maybe we tried?

Like I've said many times already as well, there's a big difference between signing the guys that usually hit UFA and acquiring top end talent like Shattenkirk.

Also not sure how he was supposed to play free agency the last couple of years differently when he's been the Devils GM for literally 15 months now. That's two free agencies when he was doing a lot of other stuff in terms of building the team. I wouldn't be surprised if he's very active next summer.

Short term isn't one year or two years but he's absolutely only concerned about competing in the next ~5 years. That's how long GMs last. This is a job for him, not a passion project. Many of the UFAs don't fit that picture as they will overall hurt us within 5 years with their contracts and deteriorating play.



and maybe he does? not sure how a hypothetical means anything here. He's the right age to fit in with our core, that doesn't mean he wouldn't have been a target to help us compete if he were older.



I'm not sure what the **** that question even means, it doesn't even make sense. Would I trade Elias' career for anything? Sure. I'd trade it for another 10 Stanley Cups cause hypotheticals and ridiculous questions are fun.

You see.. Shero isn't a fan of the Devils. He's the GM. He could care less about an individual player's career. How Zacha fares over his career is irrelevant for Shero. What's important for him is how Zacha fares for a team he runs. If he gets fired in 3 years because we make no progress, Zacha becoming an all-star is pretty ****ing irrelevant for him. No GM is trying to build a dynasty.. they are all on a known timeline with their owners to produce a contending team. It sounds like Shero has a few years leeway and he's utilizing it appropriately by waiting to go all-in but you can bet there will be a point where he knows his job is on the line and he needs to make moves that aren't necessarily the best long-term.



This is just hysterical and completely fabricated. Have you read ANY of my posts in this thread? There's not one post where I said I would trade Zacha for Shattenkirk. Literally not one. I've said a few times that I would heavily consider it but if you can't tell the difference between "heavily consider it" and "at the drop of a hat".. I don't know what to tell you.

This is absolutely true. But that time is not now. He's said in interviews he has free reign to spend, but he doesn't want to spend on the wrong players, or at the wrong time.

Now is the wrong time to be shedding premium assets to fill holes in the roster, especially when they're not really holes. Shattenkirk is a right D. The need is on the left side.

 

[MissouriMook]

The situation with Shattenkirk is a bit of an unusual circumstance, where he is probably worth more (extended) to the acquiring team than he is to his current team. Usually, you hold onto a player because he is worth more to you than what he can fetch on the market. In Shattenkirk's case, while he is undoubtedly an exceptional player, keeping him beyond this year when you also have Petro and Parayko on the right side (and none of those three has show an ability to play on the left) is simply poor cap management.

The Blues almost certainly will not trade him for anything other than extended value, regardless of the fact that many HF posters would like to suggest his worth is that of a "rental." That limits the number of teams to the places he will agree to extend, but that is why we're still waiting to see where he will go. Another common misconception is that he is going to be looking for some ridiculous 7 x $8M deal in free agency. His own agent has already come out and said he is looking for "Petro money" (or 7 x $6.5M) and that was his side's starting point.

So, for purposes of this thread, I ask the Devils fans this: Is eight years of Shattenkirk (extended at 7 x $6M-$6.5M) something that you would consider to be worth giving up your best forward prospect in Zacha? I'm sure the Blues would entertain the idea of adding Sobotka or Berglund in the deal, even retaining up to 50% to ease the cap issues, if the right "+" were coming back the other way.

 

[Rhodes 81]

The Devils aren't winning the cup this year. I'd rather just overpay for Shattrnkirk in free agency next year.

Blues are also giving up more than they need to.

 

[stl76]

Detroit hasn't picked a forward in the top 10 since Martin Lapointe in 1991. and he was 10th overall.

Fun fact: the Blues haven't picked a forward top10 since Rod Brind'Amour in 1988 w/ the 9th OA pick.

That's piss poor logic. Why do you assume he will hit UFA? Why can't he get traded to another team and re-signed there like this deal proposes? Or re-sign with the Blues? Why do you assume he will sign with the Devils in UFA?

If you want a Shattenkirk and there's a deal in place that guarantees that, it very well can be worth avoiding the risk of not getting that player in UFA. It happens quite frequently in the NHL and assuming a player will hit UFA is foolish. Not to mention that the exclusive negotiating rights are quite valuable considering you don't have to compete against 30 other teams, which can keep the $$$ lower.

Waiting for things to fall in your lap and hopefully work out is a poor strategy as a GM.

It's not really a win-now move when he would come with a long-term extension, either.

This is an underrated post.

It gets old reading about how *insertyourteamnamehere* is just going to wait for free agency to sign Shattenkirk. Apparently he is simply going to sign with the Devils, Rangers, AND Bruins so none of those teams should spend any assets to acquire him.

 

[KirkOut]

Fun fact: the Blues haven't picked a forward top10 since Rod Brind'Amour in 1988 w/ the 9th OA pick.

whaaat that's crazy. So we had EJ at #1 and Pietrangelo at #4 and that's it for top 10 picks since the lockout? It seems like for how bad we sucked it should have been more than that. IIRC we had the #9 pick in 07 (Couture) but traded down to 13 (Eller). Whoops.

 

[carter333167]

I'll move McLeod, not Zacha. And only if Shatty resigns.

I think Shatty would resign with the Devils and this would be a good deal for the Blues.

Still, DA wouldn't do it.

 

[Group Chat Legend*]

Armstrong is essentially in a no-win situation with Shattenkirk, and I think the lack of a trade represents that.

The guy has one year left on his contract and has made it known that he has a short list of teams he wants to sign with. That immediately brings down the asking price. A team like Edmonton who could desperately use him then balks at a high asking price knowing that he's a rental. Likewise around the rest of the league.

On the other hand, the teams who are on his shortlist balk at the asking price for a trade w/ an extension in place. From their perspective... they can wait a year and have a decent chance at acquiring him for nothing. Why throw a bunch of assets his way if he wants to sign there next summer anyway? Sure it's a risk you don't get him, but is Shattenkirk good enough to warrant it? Maybe. Maybe not.

So where does that leave Armstrong? He's got a very talented player with only moderate trade value. If he keeps him, Shattenkirk helps the team this year but walks for nothing. If he trades him, there is some return, but the Blues are probably worse this year as a result, and it's a year when they hope to have some shot at contending.

Have to think NJ is on his list - upcoming team near his hometown and NYC - essentially if he doesnt or cant go to NY, NJ will gladly take him.

 

[Group Chat Legend*]

Wait till free agency

 

[Rhodes 81]

This is an underrated post.

It gets old reading about how *insertyourteamnamehere* is just going to wait for free agency to sign Shattenkirk. Apparently he is simply going to sign with the Devils, Rangers, AND Bruins so none of those teams should spend any assets to acquire him.

I don't think it's about assuming he will sign with whatever team, more so that there is simply a huge amount of risk involved with any trade on this scale. Giving up a top prospect for someone you don't have a guaranteed contract with is sketchy. Yes, the prospect could fail, but you could also be giving up a young super star for one year Shattenkirk here. There is no guarantee that you have him for more than a year unless he signs an extension in STL before being traded (not likely and makes his price go up). Since the Devils are not going to be a serious cup contender this year even with a Shattenkirk, it makes no sense to give up a top prospect to get his services for that year.

Obviously it's no guarantee that Shattenkirk makes it to UFA, and even less likely that if he does he will sign with the Devils, but I'd rather take my chances as a rebuilding team. If he signs with us, great. If not, well we still have a hole in our top 4 and we have another year's worth of data sets to determine what trading chips like Zacha or McLeod are actually expendable. Teams do not rebuild by trading away promising young players for a guy that could walk in a year, no matter how good he is. This is something a cup contender does. If you want futures for Shattenkirk right now, I suggest you find one of those that wants him.

 

[Eric Sachs]

I don't think it's about assuming he will sign with whatever team, more so that there is simply a huge amount of risk involved with any trade on this scale. Giving up a top prospect for someone you don't have a guaranteed contract with is sketchy. Yes, the prospect could fail, but you could also be giving up a young super star for one year Shattenkirk here. There is no guarantee that you have him for more than a year unless he signs an extension in STL before being traded (not likely and makes his price go up). Since the Devils are not going to be a serious cup contender this year even with a Shattenkirk, it makes no sense to give up a top prospect to get his services for that year.

Obviously it's no guarantee that Shattenkirk makes it to UFA, and even less likely that if he does he will sign with the Devils, but I'd rather take my chances as a rebuilding team. If he signs with us, great. If not, well we still have a hole in our top 4 and we have another year's worth of data sets to determine what trading chips like Zacha or McLeod are actually expendable. Teams do not rebuild by trading away promising young players for a guy that could walk in a year, no matter how good he is. This is something a cup contender does. If you want futures for Shattenkirk right now, I suggest you find one of those that wants him.

No-one in this thread is discussing trading Zacha for an unextended Shattenkirk. He wouldn't be close to worth that and the Devils would never consider such a deal.

It also doesn't need to work like how you laid it out. Shattenkirk doesn't need to sign in St. Louis before being dealt. If an acquiring team is given permission to negotiate with Shattenkirk, they can work out a deal that Shattenkirk will sign after being traded. There's not really any risk there.. no reason for Shattenkirk to negotiate a deal and then back out last second once he's actually on said team.

My point was very simply that waiting to get him in UFA isn't a valid strategy. If there's a player you want badly because he will improve your team, you take the opportunity to get him whenever that presents itself. Look at how many pending UFAs were traded right before July 1st that signed before the market opened.. why didn't those teams wait? Because they wanted the player badly enough to not risk another team doing the same thing or having to compete with all the other teams. Look at Buffalo acquiring Vesey's rights. Same deal.

If you can increase your odds of getting a player long-term by trading for him, the fact that he's a soon-to-be UFA that you can get for free shouldn't be what holds you back. The price, Zacha in this case, can certainly do that.. but having a mindset along the lines of "wouldn't pay anything for him because we can just sign him for free" is foolish. All it takes is one other GM having a different mindset and the player might not end up hitting UFA after all.