Alright, so what about the people who don't blame Kyrou for everything but are still disappointed by his play this year? Are you satisfied with his overall play this season? I don't think it's controversial to say he needs to be better. When a guy signs the big ticket, expectations go up. That's not unfair.
I'm satisfied with his play this year. I certainly wouldn't say disappointed. The player I've seen this year is not at all the player I
expected to see, but I have been very pleasantly surprised by a lot of what I've seen. My expectations were for him to take a small step forward in his play off the puck along with a step forward in offensive production.
That isn't at all what we've seen and instead we have seen a decrease in production on the PP and in OT. However, his 5 on 5 production has been close to identical (19 goals and 21 assists in 73 games this year vs 22 goals and 20 assists in 79 games last year). He has a pretty decent chance of slightly improving his 5 on 5 production from last year with a couple more strong games. Personally, I think 1-2 points in either direction is kind of a wash.
But his play without the puck has improved a ton. Like, leaps and bounds.
Both his results and underlying numbers at 5 on 5 have
dramatically improved. He's +7 at 5 on 5 this year compared to -16 last year. His xGF% went from 42.97% last year to 48.88% this year. His corsi, fenwick, shot percentage, and high danger chance percentage all increased by 2+ percentage points.
All of those numbers have improved despite a slight dip in offensive deployment and a
dramatic increase in the quality of competition he has faced. He was our most sheltered top 9 forward based on quality of competition last season and he is facing the 3rd hardest quality of competition this year. He's gotten to play about 300 more minutes with Buch this year than last and just about the same minutes with Thomas. Everyone around here knows how much I love Buch, but I don't think those extra minutes together outweigh the dramatic increase in QoC.
He has been given a bigger and more difficult role this year than he had last year and has played by far the best defensive hockey of his career in that role. He's not an elite defender and never will be, but he has improved to get himself way out of 'liability' territory and his 5 on 5 offense has not taken a hit as a result.
His 19 goals at 5 on 5 is tied for 18th league-wide. His 40 points at 5 on 5 is tied for 22nd. His 15 primary assists at 5 on 5 is tied for 27th.
Those numbers have been boosted by a hot streak in the last couple weeks and he is still too streaky. Non-MVP-caliber high skilled players are always going to be streaky but he needs to find a way to shorten the slumps because his lows last longer than other non-MVP-caliber high skilled guys. This is also the 2nd straight year where he has been badly snake bitten out of the gate. There are absolutely warts to keep improving. But he is also on a 36 goal and 75 point pace since Bannister took over and his PP production since the coaching change is right on track with his PP production last year (22 PP point pace this year vs 24 PP point pace last year).
He is one of the few players on the team this year whose 'under the hood' numbers don't look awful and his 5 on 5 production has remained level despite teams actively matching up their top players against him substantially more than they ever have before.
I really, really don't see an argument that his value hasn't been that of at least a $7M winger this season. The Atheltic's model has his current value at $7.9M. I think they are slightly overrating him defensively and see an argument that his value should come in a bit lower, but I think he has at absolute worst been a $7M caliber player on the ice this season. For me, that is miles away from disappointing for a 25 year old in year 1 of an 8 year deal with an $8.125M AAV in a league where the cap is about to make 5% jumps in multiple consecutive summers.
I don't view Kyrou as a truly untouchable trade chip. He very well might be the best chance of landing a guy who can be a true #1D for us long-term. I'm not opposed to considering that type of deal. But the idea that he has been a massive disappointment or is looking like a boat anchor contract makes no sense to me at all.