HF Habs: Blueline Prospects/Young Players - Who to Keep Who to Trade

[Kobe Armstrong]

If Lane Hutson is your #1D you have serious problems unless of course he experiences a massive growth spurt....

I see close to zero chance that he plays above Guhle or Reinbacher in 5 vs 5 or shorthanded scenarios. I can't wait to have him on the PP and on the ice against opponents bottom lines in a couple of years but typical 1st pairing duties are almost certainly not a part of his future and that is ok because he has the talent to be a difference maker with the proper usage.

I think he is more likely to play down in the lineup unless we are in desperation mode late in games or are chasing a large deficit.

If he becomes better than both we will have a Hughes/Fox/Makar on our hands though, who are worthy #1s even if they don't play PK

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

If all this is true, he shouldn't be ranked as high as he is on our prospect list.

That is correct, but as we know fan generated list skew towards highlight reels and offensive ability in general. Ask any GM in the league and not one of them would have Lane ahead of Guhle or Reinbacher. That is not to suggest that other GM's wouldn't covet him because they would to varying degrees as he is an exceptional offensive talent, easily more so than any dman in our system but he is also the most flawed of the top dmen in our system and defending is first and foremost when it comes to defencemen.

 

[SlafySZN]

Reinbacher
Hutson
Guhle

Mailloux

 

[SlafySZN]

It is true, and he is ranked high because he got a lot of points in the NCAA.

No.

He is ranked high because of his talent.

 

[CristianoRonaldo]

Guhle = Petry
Reinbacher = Matheson
Hutson = Spurgeon
Mailloux = Beaulieu

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

If he becomes better than both we will have a Hughes/Fox/Makar on our hands though, who are worthy #1s even if they don't play PK

I don't consider Hughes to be a true #1 because he is below average defensively and Fox is overrated in this regard as well but is still a #1.

He will never skate as well as Hughes and for him to be as good as Fox he will need to grow 2 inches, add 25 lbs and go from being the worst back skating dman to one of the very best.......this is not impossible but incredibly unlikely.

I think Hutson will likely top out as an elte PP quarterback and a 5 vs 5 adventure against sheltered competition who will be responsible for some incredible highlights and some forgettable miscues. Hopefully he can make some huge improvements to his back skating and pack on some beef to perhaps open the door to a second pairing spot.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

His judgement of distance and gap control are really impressive. The fact he plays the right side and is a RHS is just a plus: I feel like you’re over analyzing here on a lot of things. Especially on what you see from his body build. Respectfully. He’s a teenager.

There is only objective analysis on my part, the rebuttals are born from tribal bias and are strictly apologist in nature. Of course he is only a teenager but everything is relative and he has exceptionally tiny legs and butt relative to his peers

He is a LHS by the way.....

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

Guhle = Petry
Reinbacher = Matheson
Hutson = Spurgeon
Mailloux = Beaulieu

I don't like the Hutson comparison to Spurgeon as they have little in common other than being small defenders. Lane is much more similar to Adam Fox stylistically .........maybe a hybrid of Spurgeon/Fox would be more apt if he can make the necessary improvements to his game.

I don't like any of these tbh as I am not a huge fan of making these linear 1 to 1 comparisons anyways. If I am going to do it I prefer to use hybrid comparisons that are more unique and provide a wider range of outcomes due to the ambiguity inherent in the methodology.

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

1. Hutson
2. Reinbacher
3. Guhle
4. Mailloux

I see both Reinbacher and Guhle as top pairing 25 min all situation kind of defensemen, but I can see Hutson being a 70+ pts elite offensive defenseman, which tends to get more hype

 

[MXD]

Based strictly on the investment made, you'd hope Reinbacher will be #1. A 5OA pick in a supposed strong draft carries a lot of expectations.

... It's five years from now only, and Victor Hedman only passed Guhle's upside on his fifth season. And Hedman was a 2nd overall. And Hedman is also very obviously going straight to the HHOFer as soon as eligible.

 

[WeThreeKings]

There is only objective analysis on my part, the rebuttals are born from tribal bias and are strictly apologist in nature. Of course he is only a teenager but everything is relative and he has exceptionally tiny legs and butt relative to his peers

He is a LHS by the way.....

Lame Butson

 

[BaseballCoach]

No.

He is ranked high because of his talent.

He would not be ranked where he is if he got say 22 points this past year, which would still have been above average for a freshman drafted D.

 

[nhlfan9191]

There is only objective analysis on my part, the rebuttals are born from tribal bias and are strictly apologist in nature. Of course he is only a teenager but everything is relative and he has exceptionally tiny legs and butt relative to his peers

He is a LHS by the way.....

I thought you were talking about Reinbacher. My bad if you weren’t.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

No.

He is ranked high because of his talent.

Talent does not start and end with offensive prowess, this is a common mistake with fans. Lane is lacking in specific skills that severely impede his ability to defend and talent is simply a measure of a players skills. Ignoring skills that are required to defend is to formulate a flawed understanding of the word "talent".

If you describe talent as singularly referring to hand-eye and puck skills the he would be the most talented but that is clearly not how NHL scouts and GM's define talent and it is reflected every year at the draft and during free agency where offensively skilled players get passed over for players with more balanced and projectible skill sets.

Only a fan with pure entertainment as his/her primary criteria would select Hutson over Guhle and Reinbacher. The professionals whose careers hinge on these decisions and whose primary objective is winning take the two way studs all day.

I thought you were talking about Reinbacher. My bad if you weren’t.

No worries buddy!

Lame Butson

I do love the kid and am very glad we drafted him.

 

[Frankenheimer]

Guhle in a redraft goes much earlier so I have him and Reinbacher neck/neck where one year one guy might look better than the other but then it reverses the next season.

I agree but I wonder how our bias plays into it. The guy from the Athletic (Wheeler) just came out with a detailed redraft and had Guhle at 19. Had Rossi at 16.

 

[BLONG7]

I personally don't think that Guhle will be top pairing, not because he's not good to be top pairing, but because I don't see a top pairing of Guhle-Reinbacher as those two Ds, with strong defensive acumen to go with solid offensive upside, are ideal complements for Hutson and Mailloux.

If it works out best, the top-two pairings would be:

Hutson - Reinbacher
Guhle - Mailloux

The only way I see it shaking out as a top pairing of Guhle - Reinbacher, which would make a helluva shutdown pairing with some physical oomph and solid offensive upside, nonetheless, is if Mailloux busts out.

If Mailloux does bust out, from what's currently in the system, we might be pleasantly surprised by Engstrom who is already solid defensively, likely able to shield Hutson defensively (Engstrom can play on his right side)

Guhle- Reinbacher
Hutson-Engstrom

if it's not

Hutson - Reinbacher
Guhle - Mailloux

All options are on the table with these 4 kids......good times ahead.

 

[SlafySZN]

I agree but I wonder how our bias plays into it. The guy from the Athletic (Wheeler) just came out with a detailed redraft and had Guhle at 19. Had Rossi at 16.

I don’t think it’s bias to say Guhle would’ve went before 16 in a redraft. He improved a lot since his draft and looked really impressive last season.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

I agree but I wonder how our bias plays into it. The guy from the Athletic (Wheeler) just came out with a detailed redraft and had Guhle at 19. Had Rossi at 16.

Wheeler is a buffoon and has consistently underrated Guhle from the day he was drafted. People need to realize that Wheeler and Pronman are no different than most posters on these boards and are in no way experts. Sure they get to watch more games and and have made some connections on the periphery of the scouting community but they just don't have the skills to analyze hockey players at a higher level than the common layman.

I will say that they have gotten a little better over the years but that is not saying much lol.

I read their articles but I treat it as water cooler talk and try and find the tidbits of value in their work which is usually just quotes from people who are actually in the industry. It is not as though there are significantly better options anywhere which is a very sad statement to have to make.

 

[The Great Weal]

Guhle/Reinbacher are gonna be top pair of the same quality as Marko and Subban in 13.

Markov-Subban was probably the best pairing in the league.

 

[ReimanSum1908]

1. Hutson - An absolute star defensemen, among the top ten in the league for his position despite his deficiencies in size and strength. Occasional Norris consideration.

2. Guhle - Second pairing smooth-skating defenseman with overrated defensive abilities and underrated offense, which was essentially his position this past year; he played some tough minutes, but was largely overmatched despite the media fostering groundless perceptions otherwise.

3. Reinbacher - 4/5 defenseman in the vein of Josh Gorges because he has no standout skills in his toolbox, trusted by his coach in all situations, highly safe so he'll be on the ice in the closing minutes of most games, and with a much better first pass.

4. Mailloux - Absolute wildcard. I predict he won't make the NHL as anything more than a journeyman like Beaulieu, but that's due to the inherent likelihood of most prospects failing to reach their potential. With his skating, he could reach the level of a second pairing defenseman, but even then it would be a bit of an "adventure" whenever he's on the ice.

If Guhle/Reinbacher is your first pairing, you've got a pretty miserable team for the next decade.

 

[NekkiChiconey]

*tentative comparisons are not strictly based on style, but rather on future impact (TOI, role, production...)*

1. Hutson
Will be considered a top-10 Dman in the league. Among the very best offensively, and smart enough to be at least an average defender with an outrageous amount of takeaways. Will be a huge contributor to transition, 5v5 offense and pp1.

Comp: Quinn Hughes

2. Reinbacher
Will be a solid 1st pair Dman who doesn't possess overwhelming skill but his IQ will be his biggest strength. He'll jump in the play to support offense, and still be the first man back. I don't necessarily think he'll be a top shutdown D, but still easily an above-average defender.

Comp: Devon Toews

3. Guhle
Will go against any team's top forwards on any given night and should be a nightmare for them. I think starting this year he'll incorporate more physicality, which was a big part of his game in juniors. Won't play the pp, but will be amazing in transition for both controlled exits and entries.

Comp: Hampus Lindholm

--------

4. Mailloux
I don't see him in the same tier as the other guys, but still think he becomes a worthy number 4. Think he tops out as an average or slightly below-average defender with a solid mean streak and occasional brilliance. Probably quarterbacks the 2nd pp.


Hutson, Reinbacher and Guhle should be the core. With all the depth we have, the cream will rise to the top for the remaining spots.

 

[Goldenhands]

*tentative comparisons are not strictly based on style, but rather on future impact (TOI, role, production...)*

1. Hutson
Will be considered a top-10 Dman in the league. Among the very best offensively, and smart enough to be at least an average defender with an outrageous amount of takeaways. Will be a huge contributor to transition, 5v5 offense and pp1.

Comp: Quinn Hughes

2. Reinbacher
Will be a solid 1st pair Dman who doesn't possess overwhelming skill but his IQ will be his biggest strength. He'll jump in the play to support offense, and still be the first man back. I don't necessarily think he'll be a top shutdown D, but still easily an above-average defender.

Comp: Devon Toews

3. Guhle
Will go against any team's top forwards on any given night and should be a nightmare for them. I think starting this year he'll incorporate more physicality, which was a big part of his game in juniors. Won't play the pp, but will be amazing in transition for both controlled exits and entries.

Comp: Hampus Lindholm

--------

4. Mailloux
I don't see him in the same tier as the other guys, but still think he becomes a worthy number 4. Think he tops out as an average or slightly below-average defender with a solid mean streak and occasional brilliance. Probably quarterbacks the 2nd pp.


Hutson, Reinbacher and Guhle should be the core. With all the depth we have, the cream will rise to the top for the remaining spots.

Hutson might end up as a top 10 offensive defenseman in the league, but will require a stud beside him to let him do his things. Do you considere Quinn Hughes a top 10 defenseman in the league? I dont, his all around game too flawed. Hughes is really good on the PP, gets ton of apples, he is really fun to watch skate and move the puck, but on the flip side, his shot isnt really a treath, his gap, reach and defensive side of the game are all weaknesses by comparison to the best all around defensemen in the league. In that sense, I dont think Hutson will be our best defenseman, he might end up as our best pts producer, but Reinbacher and Engstrom have more potential in term of impact in all facets of the game while Guhle will always be better than Hutson defensively as well, so how do you rank them? Thats pretty subjective IMO, there is no wrong answer, it all depends of what you value the most in a defenseman. Hutson generates alot of chaos with his puck movement, he is electric to watch but still, flashiness doesnt always mean effectiveness, In term of defending abilities, Hutson clearly is not in the same tier as Reinbacher, Guhle, Engstrom, but offensively, he might be the most gifted of the bunch. I think there is more risks in Hutson's game too, it will be interesting to see how his game management translates to a more structured pro game.

Reinbacher vs Guhle, if you compare their draft years, its not close, Reinbacher is much ahead of where Guhle was and I think Reinbacher is not that far of where Guhle is right now. Reinbacher is clearly ahead for me in term of projection, it might be close defensively, but offensively its not. Reinbacher possesses higher offensive instincts and transitional abilities.

In term of potential and overall impact I would rank them that way:

1-Reinbacher
2-Engstrom
3-Hutson
4-Guhle
5-Mailloux

And its not a knock at Guhle or Mailloux, thats just a ridiculous D group.

 

[NekkiChiconey]

Hutson might end up as a top 10 offensive defenseman in the league, but will require a stud beside him to let him do his things. Do you considere Quinn Hughes a top 10 defenseman in the league? I dont, his all around game too flawed. Hughes is really good on the PP, gets ton of apples, he is really fun to watch skate and move the puck, but on the flip side, his shot isnt really a treath, his gap, reach and defensive side of the game are all weaknesses by comparison to the best all around defensemen in the league. In that sense, I dont think Hutson will be our best defenseman, he might end up as our best pts producer, but Reinbacher and Engstrom have more potential in term of impact in all facets of the game while Guhle will always be better than Hutson defensively as well, so how do you rank them? Thats pretty subjective IMO, there is no wrong answer, it all depends of what you value the most in a defenseman. Hutson generates alot of chaos with his puck movement, he is electric to watch but still, flashiness doesnt always mean effectiveness, In term of defending abilities, Hutson clearly is not in the same tier as Reinbacher, Guhle, Engstrom, but offensively, he might be the most gifted of the bunch. I think there is more risks in Hutson's game too, it will be interesting to see how his game management translates to a more structured pro game.

Top-10 offensively definitely, but I stand by my statement. I think Hutson can manage to be a net-positive on defense, even without big hits or punishing board play. It's actually interesting that you bring up Hughes, as he's gotten so much better defensively this year, at 23 years old, and should continue to do so. I would personally rank him somewhere around #10 right now. What Hutson (and Hughes) can do with the puck is truly elite and special and is invaluable to a team in need of offensive talent.

 

[Andrei79]

I agree but I wonder how our bias plays into it. The guy from the Athletic (Wheeler) just came out with a detailed redraft and had Guhle at 19. Had Rossi at 16.

I saw it and it's a supremely idiotic list.

 

[WeThreeKings]

I saw it and it's a supremely idiotic list.

Wheeler loves small skilled guys and doesn't care if they can't or aren't translating to the NHL.

It's why the scouting staff he was on in Toronto got showered with praise from the Twitter community and they also had high NHLe lists yet I don't see any of those small skilled guys putting up big points in u20 europe leagues on their major league roster.