Well, we have a chance at history today, let's do this thing.
Here are some thoughts, I guess:
- As expected Collaros is in. What's less certain is his health. I think we'll have a pretty good indication of where the ankle is at after a series or two. I hope it doesn't affect him too much, but I'm sure he's hurt more than the Bombers are letting on. I know we have a good team, but I'm not comfortable putting this game on Brown and Prukop's shoulders. If Zach is close to healthy, with the milder weather, I expect him to feast out there. But if his mobility is hampered and he becomes a pocket passer this game I don't think he'll be as effective. He's at his best when he's moving around and improvising and if his mobility is limited, that's going to be a problem. I expect we'll see some different packages with Prukop today, though, regardless of Collaros's health.
- Lots of talk about Toronto and all the turnovers they generate. Notably, they led the league in interceptions with 29. The next closest team had 19. So, obviously, it's a concern that they can get turnovers as those are HUGE momentum swings in a game like this. BUT, let's not act like their secondary is some unstoppable force. They averaged 275 yards passing against per game, second-last in the league, ahead of only Ottawa. They remind me of the Bombers teams when we had guys like Kevin Fogg and T.J. Heath. Great ballhawks that can make game-changing INTs, but who are also susceptible to being carved up. If you look at the Bombers, a guy like Nichols doesn't have many interceptions, but that's because QBs don't even throw his way. Whoever he is covering is essentially taken out of the play. Our receivers do such a good job of finding the soft spot in coverage and with everyone healthy (mostly), I'm expecting a big game against the Argos. Collaros USUALLY (knock-on-wood) is fairly limited in throwing picks, but we'll see how his health shapes up.
- Especially if Collaros isn't very healthy, I'm expecting the Bombers to lean on Oliveira. He, of course, finished 3rd in the league in rushing with 1,001 yards, and that's with his rough start to the season. When we played Toronto in Week 4, we had basically no run game, as Brady hadn't gotten cooking yet. I'm expecting different this time around. Toronto's run defence is okay, not great, not terrible. They averaged giving up 102 yards against on the ground per game, sixth-best in the nine team league. Toronto does a fairly decent job of keeping teams out of the end zone, but they do give up yards. It'll be up to the Bombers to finish drives with six instead of three.
- On Christmas Day, 1492, the ship Santa Marià went missing near the shores of Haiti. Since then, people everywhere have been searching for the wreck. Likewise, I've been searching for the origins of the meme that Toronto is some unstoppable run team. Ouellette has been average in the run game, and Harris has lost another step. They need to rely on the run game to chew up the clock and be productive, because MBT has a bad habit of trying to do too much when his team is behind and it usually leads to turnovers. Where their running backs are more effective are as checkdown options and catching screens. The dual-back formations will be a threat and I'm assuming we will give up at least a couple of big plays like this. They're both also great blockers, which doesn't help us as we already have had struggles generating pressure this season. And I will admit I'm a bit concerned about having to play a pissed off Andrew Harris running hard at us. It's possibly the last game of his career, he could have the game of his life. If he replicates what he did for us in the 2019 Grey Cup, Toronto is going to be hard to beat. Our run defence was good against BC last week but overall has been pretty mediocre so despite Toronto's run game being overhyped, I think they can find success. We need to get ahead of them early and control the time of possession to make Toronto one-dimensional. The Argos can't afford to become pass-heavy with MBT at QB.
- McLeod Bethel-Thompson led the league in passing yards, but he had just 23 TDs compared to Collaros's 37. He also had 15 interceptions compared to Zach's 13. MBT WILL make mistakes. We just need to help him make them. Last week, Rourke couldn't run so we forced him to be a pocket passer and were able to find success because we knew where he was going to go with the ball. We won't have that luxury against MBT, but he doesn't really run that much anyway.
- To be frank, Legghio is a HUGE concern for me. He seems to wilt under pressure and this game will have copious amounts of that. The wind will be a factor too. I don't want this game coming down to a field goal kick or two because I have no confidence he can nail it. Hope he proves me wrong.
- Expect at least a couple of suspect calls. "Oh there's snowkiddin again, complaining about the refs and the game hasn't even started!" First, there are always iffy calls in CFL games. It just happens, it's a hard game to officiate. And the tinfoil hat in my backpack is telling me the CFL wants Toronto to win. Even their head coach Ryan Dinwiddie is saying he hopes/thinks an Argos Grey Cup win will renew interest in the team in the city. A Toronto win is probably better for the league than Winnipeg's fans celebrating again.
So, I guess these are my biggest keys to victory:
- Shut down the run. The Argos will rely heavily on it because when teams know they're going to pass, MBT runs into issues. Their offence clicks when the run game is going and teams are on their heels, not knowing what to expect. If we make them one-dimensional, we should find some success.
- As a side point to the above, getting ahead of them early will help push them towards abandoning the run. MBT tries doing more than he's capable of when his team starts losing, and that leads to mistakes and turnovers. Let's do that.
- Keep our pocket as clean as possible. Zach's health is a concern, let's keep him upright as much as possible and limit the chance that he can get hurt again. I really don't want this to come down to Brown and Prukop. They're competent, but that's a huge drop-off, man.
- Mitigate any potential kicking issues as much as possible.
I'll be there in-person watching the game and can not wait. I'm also so incredibly nervous right now. My brain (and the sportsbooks) say Winnipeg, but we play the game for a reason. Because the universe hates me, the Argos will probably win, but at least then we'll get a higher draft pick. I mean, 8th overall ain't bad. Before Ottawa came back that would've been a first round pick.
