Proposal: Blockbuster: BUF + MTL + CGY

[Neutrinos]

Habs save 2M in cap hit.

The player they'll need to sign to take the roster spot will make more than 2M$, and Skinner has been terrible for several year beside a fluke year 2 years ago.

We'll keep Anderson as we all know Gallagher will end up on Robidas Island sooner rhan later

Skinner has six 30+ goal seasons... including 2 in the last 3 years

His 63 points in 2022 was 9 more than Gallagher's career high, and 16 points higher than Anderson's

So, a "terrible" Skinner still out-produced Gallagher and Anderson in their career years

 

[Matt Ress]

I wouldn't trade Anderson for the 11th

I don't know what you would get for Anderson but the best bet is to probably hold and hope for a bounce back instead of selling low especially with no real urgency but I'd take him on the Sabres.

 

[tsujimoto74]

Catton has Barzal/Keller potential. It's my opinion he's by far the best WHLer in the draft. He's not there at 11 I don't think. Sennecke and Eiserman aren't even locks to play. Yakemchuk I watch up close and personal. I don't think he steps into your top 4 for at least 4 years and maybe never. He's not a great defender at the WHL level. The shot is there and he's nasty, but he can't defend in junior. Haven't seen enough of Buium to comment. Parekh is an extremely poor defender in junior. He'd get scored on 4-5 times a game in a top 4 role as is. He's a project or a 6/7 PP specialist.

Yakemchuk’s profile reads a lot like Ristolainen, and I don’t like that.

 

[DJJones]

I don't know what you would get for Anderson but the best bet is to probably hold and hope for a bounce back instead of selling low especially with no real urgency but I'd take him on the Sabres.

He's shown more than enough over the last several years. Not worried about his value going down because he got hit by a car and the whole defense sucked for 4 months.

 

[Double Dion]

I REALLY didn't want to go down a rabbit hole, so naturally I went down head first. I looked back since the 2002 draft to satisfy myself (you know, with an answer...) regarding what percentage of top 11 picks made it into the top 4 within 5 years. I went from 2002 to 2019, as those drafted since have the ability to still get there.

There were 59 (or 62; I may have forgotten to include '07) d-men drafted in the top 11. Of those 37 made it to top 4 status in 5 years or less. There were some (like Nurse) who made it but took a little longer. The d-men in the 02, 03, and 04 draft kinda got screwed by the '05 lockout. There are some you can argue weren't true top 4 dmen. Those I included:

1. Jack Johnson
2. Zach Bogosion
3. Luke Schenn
4. Ryan Ellis (certainly top 4, but whether he really achieved that by his 5th year is debatable)
5. Erik Gudbranson

I think all the aforementioned were in top 4, though there might be an argument to exclude them. There may be a couple I would have excluded that others might not. So approximately 2/3 will be quality in the not to distant future.

Inclusions:
02 - Bouwmeester, Pitkanen, Whitney
03 - Suter, Phaneuf
05 - J. Johnson
06 - E. Johnson
07 - Doughty, Bogosion, Pietranglo, Schenn
09 - Hedman, OE-L, Ellis
10 - Gudbranson
11 - Larsson, Brodin, Hamilton
12 - R. Murray, Rielly, Lindholm, Dumba, Trouba
13 - Jones, Ristolainen
14 - Ekblad
15 - Hanifin, Provorov, Werenski
16 - Sergachev
17 - Heiskanen, Makar
18 - Dahlin, Hughes, Bouchard
19 - Byram, Seider

You want to know who didn't make it, look it up yourself. I wasted WAY too much time on this.

I'd certainly disagree with many on your list. Hanifin was not a top 4 defenseman for his first 3 years in Calgary. He played the minutes, but he averaged less than 25 points while being weak defensively. He took a massive step in his 7th year and arguably went straight to a top pairing guy. He was also a better prospect than any player outside Celebrini (and possibly Demidov) in this draft class. Gudbransson never was or has been a top 4 defenseman, neither has J Johnson, Bogosian, Schenn, R Murray or Dumba.

I suppose some definition is in order for what constitutes a top 4 defenseman. Mine is would they be a top 4 defenseman on a league average blueline. Not talking San Jose where they have 1 top 4 guy or Calgary where we have 2. Also not talking Vegas where they have 6. As an example, would they be top 4 in Minnesota?

 

[Ford Prefect]

Habs save 2M in cap hit.

The player they'll need to sign to take the roster spot will make more than 2M$, and Skinner has been terrible for several year beside a fluke year 2 years ago.

We'll keep Anderson as we all know Gallagher will end up on Robidas Island sooner rhan later

Sure. Want to go further back?

From 2018-19 to 2023-24

Gallagher: 346-100-87-187 PPG: 0.54
Anderson: 376-94-65-159 PPG: 0.42
TOTAL: 723-194-152-346 PPG: 0.48

Skinner: 427-153-138-291 PPG: 0.68

The player that will take a roster spot will be one that is part of their long-term core: Roy, Beck, 5th pick, etc. Someone they'll develop, and whose production will just increase the gap in productivity. Skinner may outscore them himself. And he's not poor defensively.

No, there is no metric nor universe where their combined caphit is viewed better than Skinner's. If that deal is proposed, Hughes sends it to league office before he gets off the phone.

 

[Mersss]

Sure. Want to go further back?

From 2018-19 to 2023-24

Gallagher: 346-100-87-187 PPG: 0.54
Anderson: 376-94-65-159 PPG: 0.42
TOTAL: 723-194-152-346 PPG: 0.48

Skinner: 427-153-138-291 PPG: 0.68

The player that will take a roster spot will be one that is part of their long-term core: Roy, Beck, 5th pick, etc. Someone they'll develop, and whose production will just increase the gap in productivity. Skinner may outscore them himself. And he's not poor defensively.

No, there is no metric nor universe where their combined caphit is viewed better than Skinner's. If that deal is proposed, Hughes sends it to league office before he gets off the phone.

You forget that Habs pay the 26th pick in a trade that could get them an NHL player like Newhook or Dach to get Skinner. A 9M$ cap dump Habs don't need.

Well pass. Keep him. We'll keep that pick and tradenit for a guy like Necas instead or another RFA that fits our core. We dont need the cap space at all for the next 2-3 years

 

[RasmusAndersson]

there are 2 cap management methods

1. 7D/2G does not exceed 3/7 of the cap.
Or
2. If you allocate $12M for bottom 8 in salary which would be 4F/2D/BG/1 other player, then the remaining 9/5/1 roster has the rest of cap space. 40% on 5D/1G and 60% on 9F

Under both they will exceed the target where current 5D are at 31M and after resigning UPL they are likely over $35M

1. 87.7M × 3/7 = 37.6M. $35M is without 2D and BG so they will exceed it.

2. 40% of remaining cap is 30.7M.

Where did you possibly come up with this? And how did you convince yourself these are the only two options for cap management lol? Truly the craziest post I think I’ve ever seen.

 

[Wayfarer13]

Skinner has six 30+ goal seasons... including 2 in the last 3 years

His 63 points in 2022 was 9 more than Gallagher's career high, and 16 points higher than Anderson's

So, a "terrible" Skinner still out-produced Gallagher and Anderson in their career years

Yah know Gallagher was a point a game in his last 10 games.May have made the adjustment in his game.Just saying

 

[Neutrinos]

You forget that Habs pay the 26th pick in a trade that could get them an NHL player like Newhook or Dach to get Skinner. A 9M$ cap dump Habs don't need.

Well pass. Keep him. We'll keep that pick and tradenit for a guy like Necas instead or another RFA that fits our core. We dont need the cap space at all for the next 2-3 years

Okay, you trade #26 for Necas, and let's say Necas signs for 8 million a season

The #26 pick is gone, and you now have Necas, Gallagher, and Anderson combining for a cap hit of 20 million for each of the next 3 seasons

That's your plan?

 

[Ford Prefect]

I'd certainly disagree with many on your list. Hanifin was not a top 4 defenseman for his first 3 years in Calgary. He played the minutes, but he averaged less than 25 points while being weak defensively. He took a massive step in his 7th year and arguably went straight to a top pairing guy. He was also a better prospect than any player outside Celebrini (and possibly Demidov) in this draft class. Gudbransson never was or has been a top 4 defenseman, neither has J Johnson, Bogosian, Schenn, R Murray or Dumba.

I suppose some definition is in order for what constitutes a top 4 defenseman. Mine is would they be a top 4 defenseman on a league average blueline. Not talking San Jose where they have 1 top 4 guy or Calgary where we have 2. Also not talking Vegas where they have 6. As an example, would they be top 4 in Minnesota?

UGH. RABBIT HOLE.

Yes, he was a top 4 for Calgary in 18-19. The team also had Giordano, Brodie and Hamonic in its top 4. He was 22 while the next most junior was 28. He was 3rd in D scoring with 33 points (which I believe is more than 25 and 1 point behind Brodie for second), while averaging just under 21 minutes per game. He averaged less than a minute per game on the power play, presumably playing the latter part where he didn't have the advantage of starting his shift in the offensive zone. Points are not the indicator of what makes a top 4 dman. Compared to Brodie in 18-19 he had more hits, more blocks, less giveaways. Despite his horrible defensive play he had an 18+/-. And would I take put '18-19 Hanifin in the Wild's top 4? Absofrickinlutely. I'd have him behind Brodin, Faber and Spurgeon, but ahead of Middleton and comfortably ahead of Bogosion, Merrill and Goligoski.

By your logic, Calgary had a single top 4 dman and the rest were bottom 6? You may think my standards are relaxed, I say yours are too stringent. I'm sure as hell not going to go through your entire list to win a pointless argument. Regardless, I'm done with this conversation. Time is too precious to hijack a thread about pointless interpretations. Excuse me, I think I'll do something productive. Like troll someone.

 

[Ford Prefect]

You forget that Habs pay the 26th pick in a trade that could get them an NHL player like Newhook or Dach to get Skinner. A 9M$ cap dump Habs don't need.

Well pass. Keep him. We'll keep that pick and tradenit for a guy like Necas instead or another RFA that fits our core. We dont need the cap space at all for the next 2-3 years

I don't know what qualifies you to speak for the organization. You can say YOU wouldn't accept, which is fine. I'm a Habs fan too, so I don't "keep" anything. And if you think that the 26th pick is the central feature for a player like Necas, sober up before you post. This deal doesn't get offered but if it did, "WE" take it.

 

[Mersss]

Okay, you trade #26 for Necas, and let's say Necas signs for 8 million a season

The #26 pick is gone, and you now have Necas, Gallagher, and Anderson combining for a cap hit of 20 million for each of the next 3 seasons

That's your plan?

Yep.

Cause we have more than enough cap space to fo so and gain a much better player than Jeff Skinner.

And has mentioned. If we need the space Gallagher will end up on LTIR

I don't know what qualifies you to speak for the organization. You can say YOU wouldn't accept, which is fine. I'm a Habs fan too, so I don't "keep" anything. And if you think that the 26th pick is the central feature for a player like Necas, sober up before you post. This deal doesn't get offered but if it did, "WE" take it.

No we dont as it saves Habs 2M in cap hit over 3 years. If Skinner was not included then maybe. But he is

 

[Ford Prefect]

Yah know Gallagher was a point a game in his last 10 games.May have made the adjustment in his game.Just saying

I certainly agree and I was so happy to him looking somewhat like his old self. The last 4ish years must have been very difficult and possibly humiliating to see how far down the lineup he fell. Maybe Armia Newhook and he are Montreal's Island of misfit toys? He's a great person, I just don't think he's physically able to be a great player anymore (I'd love to be proven wrong, and his legs did seem to pick up steam as the season progressed.

 

[Ford Prefect]

Yep.

Cause we have more than enough cap space to fo so and gain a much better player than Jeff Skinner.

And has mentioned. If we need the space Gallagher will end up on LTIR


No we dont as it saves Habs 2M in cap hit over 3 years. If Skinner was not included then maybe. But he is

Do you know what LTIR is and how it works? It's for players who physically can't play anymore due to injury. It's not a place you stash players cause you don't think they live up to their cap hit. Even if he's running at 10% of what he used to, he's still cleared and still has to play. And if you think Gallagher of all people will just kick his legs up while there is ANYTHING left in the tank, you don't know what player you're talking about.

 

[Mersss]

Do you know what LTIR is and how it works? It's for players who physically can't play anymore due to injury. It's not a place you stash players cause you don't think they live up to their cap hit. Even if he's running at 10% of what he used to, he's still cleared and still has to play. And if you think Gallagher of all people will just kick his legs up while there is ANYTHING left in the tank, you don't know what player you're talking about.

You do realize the guy could fail a physical right?

And at the end of the day it does not matter. habs do not save any cap by trading 11M dolar in salary for 9M + 1M (cause someone takes Anderson's place).

Trading the 26th pick to save 1M for 3 years is a completely moron move to make

 

[Wayfarer13]

I certainly agree and I was so happy to him looking somewhat like his old self. The last 4ish years must have been very difficult and possibly humiliating to see how far down the lineup he fell. Maybe Armia Newhook and he are Montreal's Island of misfit toys? He's a great person, I just don't think he's physically able to be a great player anymore (I'd love to be proven wrong, and his legs did seem to pick up steam as the season progressed.

People keep fussing on this team and where they need to be is going to take time.They're doing well on the rebuild. Hughes has some trade capital going into the draft and this week should be interesting based on what he has done so far.

 

[Neutrinos]

And at the end of the day it does not matter. habs do not save any cap by trading 11M dolar in salary for 9M + 1M (cause someone takes Anderson's place).

Trading the 26th pick to save 1M for 3 years is a completely moron move to make

At least get the salary totals correct...

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

www.capfriendly.com

 

[Mersss]

At least get the salary totals correct...

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

www.capfriendly.com

Dont need to. Habs dont save merely enough cap ti warrant trade a 1st rder that could be used to get a guy .

Unless Sabres take one Gally + Anderson + 26 for future cons, Habs dont trade the pick.

Stupid move to take on a guy whos never been to the playoff in his entire career to save 1-2M on the cap for 3 years when Havs will still be rebuilding for another 2 years in the top 5-10.

 

[Neutrinos]

Dont need to. Habs dont save merely enough cap ti warrant trade a 1st rder that could be used to get a guy .

Unless Sabres take one Gally + Anderson + 26 for future cons, Habs dont trade the pick.

Stupid move to take on a guy whos never been to the playoff in his entire career to save 1-2M on the cap for 3 years when Havs will still be rebuilding for another 2 years in the top 5-10.

Stupid move to trade a 1st for Necas and then commit 8 million to him if your intention is to continue building with lottery picks for multiple seasons

 

[Mersss]

Stupid move to trade a 1st for Necas and then commit 8 million to him if your intention is to continue building with lottery picks for multiple seasons

Habs will be cup by 2025-2026 then... Necas would be on year 3 of his contract.

And he ain't getting more than Suzuki so 7.6 x 8

By the time Habs are in cup contention mode, Gallagher anderson and all of their "deadweight" is gone

Caufield - Suzuki - Slaf
Pick #5 - Necas / whoever they get for pick 26 - Dach
Roy - Beck - Newhook
RHP - Evans - TBD

Guhle - Mailloux
Hutson - Reinbacher
Xhekaj - whoever wins that spot

Monty
Primeau
Fowler

Fact is, trading for Skinner makes no sense whatsoever and handcuffs the Habs even more

 

[Neutrinos]

Habs will be cup by 2025-2026 then... Necas would be on year 3 of his contract.

And he ain't getting more than Suzuki so 7.6 x 8

By the time Habs are in cup contention mode, Gallagher anderson and all of their "deadweight" is gone

Gally and Anderson have 3 years left, so by the time their "deadweight" contracts are gone, Necas will be entering his 4th season with the Habs...

 

[Mersss]

Gally and Anderson have 3 years left, so by the time their "deadweight" contracts are gone, Necas will be entering his 4th season with the Habs...

4th year then. So he'll be 29. Totally fine for any Habs Fan.

Or you give up assets to get rid of Gallagher and Anderson when they have 1 year left if you need too. As I said Gallagher will end up on LTIR everyone knows this

 

[Double Dion]

Yakemchuk’s profile reads a lot like Ristolainen, and I don’t like that.

There's some similarities for sure. Development is a funny beast though. I'd say Ristolainen is the better skater and Yakemchuk is nastier. But both of them can't read a play to save their lives despite having the physical tools. Yakemchuk I think of as a poor man's Phaneuf.

 

[HuGort]

Montreal also gets a significant upgrade to their lineup

Skinner has 92 goals, 191 points, and is only -1 over his last 233 games

Gallagher has 45 goals, 92 points, and is -26 over his last 205 games

Anderson has 49 goals, 84 points, and is -51 over his last 216 games

I'd rather keep Gallagher actually. Than Skinner