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Management Bill Guerin

How is Guerin Doing?


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The thing is... Kaprizov signing an 8-year, $113 million deal (i.e. slightly more than Draisaitl) means the team is just as crunched in two years as it is now.

First round loss
 
The thing is... Kaprizov signing an 8-year, $113 million deal (i.e. slightly more than Draisaitl) means the team is just as crunched in two years as it is now.

First round loss
Maybe not with the cap skyrocketing in two years. Though I am too lazy to map it all out.
 
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Maybe not with the cap skyrocketing in two years. Though I am too lazy to map it all out.

Is the cap skyrocketing? Might want to check your investment portfolio. Three straight months of S&P 500 losses. Tariffs and blistered diplomatic relations with our nation's largest trading partner -- the one that makes affordable goods. A deliberate tanking of the US dollar. It's ... dicey. Not saying a bear market or a stagflation environment is the be-all end-all of the NHL's calculus -- obviously a guy like Leipold won't give two f***s about losing $100 million -- but probably most people will think twice about renewing season tickets if these economic conditions continue (they will) or worsen (they might). Many corporate sponsors are also cutting non-essentials -- hockey games would in most cases qualify.
 
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Is the cap skyrocketing? Might want to check your investment portfolio. Three straight months of S&P 500 losses. Tariffs and blistered diplomatic relations with our nation's largest trading partner -- the one that makes affordable goods. A deliberate tanking of the US dollar. It's ... dicey. Not saying a bear market or a stagflation environment is the be-all end-all of the NHL's calculus -- obviously a guy like Leipold won't give two f***s about losing $100 million -- but probably most people will think twice about renewing season tickets if these economic conditions continue (they will) or worsen (they might). Many corporate sponsors are also cutting non-essentials -- hockey games would in most cases qualify.
Okay CNN, let’s calm down.
 
One more year. if no results, then you let him go. I am worried that he will know this, and sacrifice our future for the present(trading away picks, giving contracts to older veterans who are good now, but likely to decline). Leipold has to play this smart, and totally back him, till... he doesn't.
 
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Is the cap skyrocketing? Might want to check your investment portfolio. Three straight months of S&P 500 losses. Tariffs and blistered diplomatic relations with our nation's largest trading partner -- the one that makes affordable goods. A deliberate tanking of the US dollar. It's ... dicey. Not saying a bear market or a stagflation environment is the be-all end-all of the NHL's calculus -- obviously a guy like Leipold won't give two f***s about losing $100 million -- but probably most people will think twice about renewing season tickets if these economic conditions continue (they will) or worsen (they might). Many corporate sponsors are also cutting non-essentials -- hockey games would in most cases qualify.
Did not know Rachel Maddow was a Wild fan.
 
I don't see why Kaprizov deserves so much money. He was out for half the season, has never won us even 1 series, and while he was great for the first three games of the series, he was MIA for the last two.

Guys like Kopitar, Kane, Toews, Doughty, Kucherov got the big bucks after winning a Cup. Barkov, after getting his team to a Cup final.
 
I don't see why Kaprizov deserves so much money. He was out for half the season, has never won us even 1 series, and while he was great for the first three games of the series, he was MIA for the last two.

Guys like Kopitar, Kane, Toews, Doughty, Kucherov got the big bucks after winning a Cup. Barkov, after getting his team to a Cup final.
I mean he was on pace for maybe a Hart trophy win. He’s easily a top 10 player in the league for me.
 
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I don't see why Kaprizov deserves so much money. He was out for half the season, has never won us even 1 series, and while he was great for the first three games of the series, he was MIA for the last two.

Guys like Kopitar, Kane, Toews, Doughty, Kucherov got the big bucks after winning a Cup. Barkov, after getting his team to a Cup final.
Because that's what the market dictates for top players, he has the leverage to get it, and there's likely no path to a Cup without him that doesn't include a risky/lengthy rebuild.

Barkov signed his deal in October 2021, prior to advancing past the first round. Doughty signed for >10% of the cap (would be ~$10.4M per year adjusted for today) prior to winning a round. Kopitar signed for 12% of the cap (would be ~$11.4M per year adjusted for today) prior to making the playoffs. Kucherov signed his deal prior to winning the Cup, though he did make the Finals and 2 ECF's.
 
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I don't see why Kaprizov deserves so much money. He was out for half the season, has never won us even 1 series, and while he was great for the first three games of the series, he was MIA for the last two.

Guys like Kopitar, Kane, Toews, Doughty, Kucherov got the big bucks after winning a Cup. Barkov, after getting his team to a Cup final.
There's definitely some concern with him staying healthy for an entire season. It will help to have some scoring depth so our coach doesn't overuse him.
 
Guerin keeps saying that "we have a plan". What is, or was, the plan? To lose in the first round of the playoffs for the first 6 years of his tenure? Can't imagine that such a plan would've gotten him hired by Leipold. At what point is he held accountable for this team's lack of success?
 
Guerin keeps saying that "we have a plan". What is, or was, the plan? To lose in the first round of the playoffs for the first 6 years of his tenure? Can't imagine that such a plan would've gotten him hired by Leipold. At what point is he held accountable for this team's lack of success?
At this point, presumably. Now that there is no dead cap constraint, which was the most major constraint on him, he'll need to do something constructive (not destructive, which is a very real possibility) with the space.

I'll say this, no player is worth infinite money, but if a GM is going to spend up to the cap regardless of what's available, I'd rather they overspend on Kaprizov than on Brock (Insert). $2 million extra on Kaprizov would be less value destructive than the same amount over on Brock (non-Faber), IMO. Of course, a smart GM would attempt to not overpay on anyone... with the caveat that it is worth overpaying for a superstar if being a stickler for fair value means not having the superstar at all.
 
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Guerin keeps saying that "we have a plan". What is, or was, the plan? To lose in the first round of the playoffs for the first 6 years of his tenure? Can't imagine that such a plan would've gotten him hired by Leipold. At what point is he held accountable for this team's lack of success?
My guess is he's probably getting a 2 year leash extended post buyouts. Maybe 1 1/2. I would think he probably sold Leipold on the buyouts and said, 'let me build during that time and see what I can do once they're done.'
 
His clock is officially ticking now that the buyouts are no more. Hopefully he does well but Im not that much a believer anymore.
 
My guess is he's probably getting a 2 year leash extended post buyouts. Maybe 1 1/2. I would think he probably sold Leipold on the buyouts and said, 'let me build during that time and see what I can do once they're done.'
If they don’t win a playoff series next year, I think he’s 100% gone.
 
I would prefer that option as well. I just don't think Leipold is the kind of guy to give him just a year past the buyouts. I'm on board if he does though.
Too long of a tenure with no playoff success, even with the buyouts. Fletcher won a few series here & he never had a talent like Kap.

I think Guerin’s entire pitch was that this would be a contender immediately coming out of the buyout penalties & he needs to back that up with a series win at a minimum.

It’ll depend on his offseason moves as well. Failing to re-sign Kap or bringing in more Trenin-level players is going to warm that seat up.
 
I think Guerin’s entire pitch was that this would be a contender immediately coming out of the buyout penalties

I hope not, that would mean he's about to get real stupid this summer
 
I hope not, that would mean he's about to get real stupid this summer
I mean that’s how you’d have to pitch a drastic move like that the Parise/Suter buyouts. With cap increases & prospect development, this is absolutely the best chance they should have in theory.

They’ve had a playoff team playing at a significant cap disadvantage to the rest of the league and are now getting an additional $15M in cap space on top of all the other cap increases. Not to mention, this is the final year of Kap’s contract.

It’s just Guerin got too reckless with handing out large money and term to “character” guys that don’t have a huge impact in the grand scheme. Saving $11.5M and not signing Foligno + Trenin + Zucc would have had them in a great spot right now to make several significant moves.
 
The thing is... Kaprizov signing an 8-year, $113 million deal (i.e. slightly more than Draisaitl) means the team is just as crunched in two years as it is now.

First round loss
Nope. It’s true that the buyout money will largely be spent on the raises to Kaprizov and Faber, but it doesn’t factor in the gigantic cap increase happening over the next 5 years with the rest of the core largely locked in.
 
What's the realistic leash here at this point? I'm not asking what you want - how long is the leash?

He was always going to be given until the '25-'26 offseason for the buyouts to end (barring complete disaster). Is there a realistic scenario where he's fired midseason next year if it starts poorly? Feels like the first time that statement could be true.
He’s got at least 3 years. He was literally just promoted to the president of hockey operations. For as dissapointing as it is for fans ending up in the same spot each year, these last 4 years of the Parise/Suter deals were always going to be a struggle and he’s largely exceeded all on ice expectations. Did we really think we were going to contend for a Stanley cup playing 20%+ behind?
 
I don't see why Kaprizov deserves so much money. He was out for half the season, has never won us even 1 series, and while he was great for the first three games of the series, he was MIA for the last two.

Guys like Kopitar, Kane, Toews, Doughty, Kucherov got the big bucks after winning a Cup. Barkov, after getting his team to a Cup final.
It’s just the way the market works. I don’t love the idea of it either but I just don’t see how you let Kaprizov leave if you’re serious about winning. You can find other ways to force surplus value into your lineup. If you let Kaprizov leave you’re just gonna have to go find another player like him, or at least another forward better than Boldy.
 
It’s just the way the market works. I don’t love the idea of it either but I just don’t see how you let Kaprizov leave if you’re serious about winning. You can find other ways to force surplus value into your lineup. If you let Kaprizov leave you’re just gonna have to go find another player like him, or at least another forward better than Boldy.
We have 2 places existing right now, and hopefully a 3rd if Faber rebounds next year.
 
We have 2 places existing right now, and hopefully a 3rd if Faber rebounds next year.
This is why you need ELCs and why I'm very in favor of using Rossi (if we trade him) to pickup another solid ELC down the line. Just looking at next year:

  • Kaprizov is going to significantly outperform his deal
  • Boldy's production is worth significantly more than 7M per year
  • Gustavsson assuming no major regression is going to significantly outperform his deal
  • Ek is going to outperform his deal
  • Zuccarello, as hated as he is on this board, will outproduce his contract if he breaks ~45 points
  • If any one of Yurov, Jiricek, Buium are ready to be significant factors they're going to blow their deals out of the water
I think for the most part we're in a really solid postition with the contracts we have. Even Foligno, Hartman, Gaudreau all should be reasonably in line with their cap hits. the only player locked up that is going to hurt us is Trenin. Kaprizov will obviously reset his deal and not be a bargain anymore, but from a team building perspective I generally think doing whatever you have to do to retain 4-5 high level players and then filling the rest of your lineup with reasonable deals and entry level guys is kinda my favorite blueprint for winning a Stanley cup, and I don't think we're in a bad position right now to do just that.
 

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