Management Bill Guerin

[Dr Jan Itor]

Guerin seemed to be taking shots at Russo for creating the Dumba or Fiala narrative.

I think Guerin has already recieved a few big-time offers for Fiala. He knows he’s going to get a lot back so he’s not even thinking twice about it.

Just have to hope he has the same definition of "big-time" that we do.

 

[Bazeek]

Just have to hope he has the same definition of "big-time" that we do.

Hey, Sammy Blais is like 6'2". Big dude.

 

[Sebastien]

Said no one, ever. You are inventing things.

If you think Dumba was MN's best Dman in the playoffs, nvm "by far", then you see things very differently than I do.


I hope you are right, but am not certain.

The stats people who do this literally posted the graph stuff of his play in playoffs on Twitter which showed he was

 

[Bazeek]

The stats people who do this literally posted the graph stuff of his play in playoffs on Twitter which showed he was

You mean this?

As much as this one confirms my biases, I have a hard time putting a ton of stock in these. His overall conclusion was that goaltending was the biggest factor in the series, which.... like, I guess that's sort of true, but it's probably the wrong lesson to take away from it. It's not like the Blues' goalies are super reliable, either.

 

[HotDish]

I do agree that I think the whole Fiala or Dumba debate isn't a thing. I'm also tired of the few twitter voices calling Dumba and Spurgeon the new Parise and Suter.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

One of my least favorite things about the sport today is people thinking that throwing a chart up is the be-all and end-all of a debate.

 

[Bazeek]

I do agree that I think the whole Fiala or Dumba debate isn't a thing. I'm also tired of the few twitter voices calling Dumba and Spurgeon the new Parise and Suter.

I see salary cap literacy on Twitter is about as high as you might expect.

One of my least favorite things about the sport today is people thinking that throwing a chart up is the be-all and end-all of a debate.

I won't say they have no value, but the way they get tossed around is almost completely a matter of presentation over content. People have no idea what the numbers really mean, but I sure do know that dark blue is better than light blue, and I'll take either of those over a stinkin' red.

 

[BuiumSaveUs]

Just have to hope he has the same definition of "big-time" that we do.

I’ve been doing a lot of thinking and I think I understand Guerin’s line of reasoning. It’s just a balance between return and value. It’s not that he doesn’t like Fiala or want to keep him, but in this deal he’s going to be able to get a lot more value than he could get for Dumba. They aren’t going to want to pay Fiala what he wants, and they should get a haul for him. I can see why it’s simple in Guerin’s mind. I’m not sure I agree with it, because it seems we have different view on Fiala, and Dumba for that matter, but I understand it. I hope that he’s smarter than me.

Fiala's poor play in the playoffs was a disaster, both for himself and the Wild. He alone handed 8 power plays to the Blues. He hurt the team, so I can understand Guerin's reaction. But what Russo says is probably true, the relationship between Guerin and Fiala hasn't been good since those rough contract talks last year.

Zuccarello stunk too.

 

[Sebastien]

You mean this?

As much as this one confirms my biases, I have a hard time putting a ton of stock in these. His overall conclusion was that goaltending was the biggest factor in the series, which.... like, I guess that's sort of true, but it's probably the wrong lesson to take away from it. It's not like the Blues' goalies are super reliable, either.

I think so . I think there's one other person who does this also right? Something like evolvewild, or something related?

You mean this?

As much as this one confirms my biases, I have a hard time putting a ton of stock in these. His overall conclusion was that goaltending was the biggest factor in the series, which.... like, I guess that's sort of true, but it's probably the wrong lesson to take away from it. It's not like the Blues' goalies are super reliable, either.

I think so, I think there's one other person who does this also right with the name Evolvewild, or something on Twitter ?

 

[57special]

I’ve been doing a lot of thinking and I think I understand Guerin’s line of reasoning. It’s just a balance between return and value. It’s not that he doesn’t like Fiala or want to keep him, but in this deal he’s going to be able to get a lot more value than he could get for Dumba. They aren’t going to want to pay Fiala what he wants, and they should get a haul for him. I can see why it’s simple in Guerin’s mind. I’m not sure I agree with it, because it seems we have different view on Fiala, and Dumba for that matter, but I understand it. I hope that he’s smarter than me.


Zuccarello stunk too.

Oh, I understand his reasoning, but just don't agree with it. Trading away young, talented forwards and keeping older, injured players in their stead is never a good thing.

 

[Bazeek]

I think so . I think there's one other person who does this also right? Something like evolvewild, or something related?


I think so, I think there's one other person who does this also right with the name Evolvewild, or something on Twitter ?

EvolvingWild/EvolvingHockey does the rate-adjusted plus-minus stuff. Don't know if they had similar things to say about Dumba in the playoffs, though.

 

[Sebastien]

EvolvingWild/EvolvingHockey does the rate-adjusted plus-minus stuff. Don't know if they had similar things to say about Dumba in the playoffs, though.

I suck at Twitter research but can you look please because that's where I think I saw it

 

[Bazeek]

I suck at Twitter research but can you look please because that's where I think I saw it

I scanned through their feeds, but didn't see anything.

 

[Sebastien]

I scanned through their feeds, but didn't see anything.

Thank you for this. I don't know how people are able to find tweet, tweets . Don't know if you just keep scroll until you do , word, or if there's a trick

 

[Wabit]

Thank you for this. I don't know how people are able to find tweet, tweets . Don't know if you just keep scroll until you do , word, or if there's a trick

I use google, put in whatever keywords, then look at the images. "graph" and "chart" are good keywords to use for this.

Then again I do look for memes more than I should. and this is the way I do that.

 

[Sebastien]

I use google, put in whatever keywords, then look at the images. "graph" and "chart" are good keywords to use for this.

Then again I do look for memes more than I should. and this is the way I do that.

Social media is too confusing for me. A href special keywords to put in to find what one wants? For example if it was 6 month or 1 year ago?

 

[Wabit]

Social media is too confusing for me. A href special keywords to put in to find what one wants? For example if it was 6 month or 1 year ago?

Most of the charts and graphs on social media come from images from the main website of whatever twitter account it is. The older something is the messier it can be.

As for social media, I don't use it. I have a twitter account, but haven't used it in years. I have facebook, but that is to play a couple of games and chat with a few people. So I can't help much.

I don't post a lot of the charts on here because I don't fully understand the metrics they use to determine things. Every site is different in how they weigh things and what stats to use and which to ignore.

I use natural stat trick (raw adv stats) and hockey viz (nice images for me to get an initial baseline) to to get a lot of my information. But that is a personal preference and how I best process the information. Others on here use sites I don't much understand at all.

The best advice I can give you is:
- find which websites you like (some are behind a paywall) and get comfortable using them then branch out to other sites as your abilities/interests grow.
- ask questions about the graphs and chats you see on here if you don't understand them, or want to learn more about them.
- don't get overwhelmed with information overload.

 

[Digitalbooya]

Oh, I understand his reasoning, but just don't agree with it. Trading away young, talented forwards and keeping older, injured players in their stead is never a good thing.

It’s a great idea to decimate the defense even farther. Will go from 5 top 4 quality D just over a year ago to 2 top 4 quality D next year.

I don’t get why Dumba gets the shit end of the stick on here when players like Kulikov, Merrill, Goligoski, Jost occupy $7.54M in cap space to be 4th line/3rd pairing players. If you replace those with ELC/league minimum you save $4M+.

 

[Spurgeon]

It’s a great idea to decimate the defense even farther. Will go from 5 top 4 quality D just over a year ago to 2 top 4 quality D next year.

I don’t get why Dumba gets the shit end of the stick on here when players like Kulikov, Merrill, Goligoski, Jost occupy $7.54M in cap space to be 4th line/3rd pairing players. If you replace those with ELC/league minimum you save $4M+.

Besides Zucc, he’s just the only other guy that makes logical sense to move.

Before those signings/extensions, there definitely was a way to keep Fiala and Dumba on this roster for 1 more season, which I thought Guerin might have preferred given the cap hell the following 2 seasons will be.

He must have some insane offer for Fiala that will make moving him a lot more justifiable.

 

[AKL]

It’s a great idea to decimate the defense even farther. Will go from 5 top 4 quality D just over a year ago to 2 top 4 quality D next year.

I don’t get why Dumba gets the shit end of the stick on here when players like Kulikov, Merrill, Goligoski, Jost occupy $7.54M in cap space to be 4th line/3rd pairing players. If you replace those with ELC/league minimum you save $4M+.

As a side note, it doesn't fill me with any hope for the future that Guerin's been here for three years, and most of the problems we talk about here can be attributed to his moves, or lack thereof.

We could pretty easily have kept both Fiala and Dumba, even with the buyouts, but Guerin messed that up. Now the reason Dumba is getting the "shit end of the stick" here is because most people recognize that one of them has to go, and Dumba is 1) not worth the money he makes and 2) is still easily moveable. He's also becoming injury prone and a shell of his former self.

If you're trying to make a budget for your personal life, you'll cut spending more effectively by having a $250 car payment vs a $750 car payment, than you will by swapping out your weekly 5 Guys burger for a McDonalds burger.

It's easier, and better for the team, to swap Dumba for Middleton than it is to have four more Jordie Benn's playing every night.

The fact that Guerin screwed up the defense prior to now isn't a good justification to make the wrong move again. And to be clear, because some people (not you) will jump me for that, I obviously mean "wrong move" as an opinion of mine (and others who feel the same way).

He must have some insane offer for Fiala that will make moving him a lot more justifiable.

I think you're giving him way too much credit. I think he just doesn't like Fiala.

 

[Spurgeon]

I think you're giving him way too much credit. I think he just doesn't like Fiala.

I probably am, but I’m holding out hope that he’s got something. I don’t know how reasonable of an assumption that is though since Fiala would have to be willing to sign an extension with the acquiring team… I wouldn’t fault Fiala at all to just elect for arbitration and take his 1 year deal and make bank in UFA.

 

[Sota Popinski]

Guerin gets that success in professional sports, especially hockey, comes down to character. Fiala is a highly-talented player who does not have the highly-motivated character aspect -- at all. You see the same thing with, say, William Nylander. A guy who puts up points is certainly a terrific guy to have on your team. A guy who won't win puck battles, who takes bad penalties, who makes selfish turnovers... is just not worth what his market value says he is -- especially in the playoffs.

Now, it's a fair question whether losing Fiala will contribute in a negative or positive way to making the playoffs next season but Guerin obviously sees his mandate as building culture first and foremost.

I'll miss Fiala as much as I missed Havlat and I do think Guerin can get a solid return for him.

Uhh, you must not have watched Nylander in the playoffs this year, because he played great

 

[Wabit]

Uhh, you must not have watched Nylander in the playoffs this year, because he played great

He was the best player for TOR in the Playoffs the season before too.

 

[AKL]

I probably am, but I’m holding out hope that he’s got something. I don’t know how reasonable of an assumption that is though since Fiala would have to be willing to sign an extension with the acquiring team… I wouldn’t fault Fiala at all to just elect for arbitration and take his 1 year deal and make bank in UFA.

I wouldn't really fault him for it, but I don't think it's his smartest move available. There's a lot of risk for a guy joining a new team, system, coaching staff, etc, to leave the fate of his first UFA contract at the mercy of so many variables.

What I'm increasingly worried about is that it seems Guerin is completely over Fiala, I don't think there's going to be a ton of collaboration between the two parties when it comes to discussing a trade. I'm worried he won't even ask about an extension to get a better deal, he'll just trade him to whichever team provides the best offer as is. I know it's a different situation, but he bought Suter out without even exploring other possibilities or talking to Suter about his future here. He just wanted him gone. I can see the same happening with Fiala.

 

[chchelseII]

Guerin’s gonna die on Fiala Hill.