Post-Game Talk: Big Fish

[bleedblue94]

I see it as that Brunette came in and did some of his magic to that offense.



And his is Brunettes 's resume since 2015:

View attachment 611312

or their young players have more confidence and got better?

or their d is better.

or they are actually getting some saves once in awhile this year but some of that is attributed to better d play overall.

also, lets see what happens in january bc a lot of times a team goes on a swing (good or bad) and the pengelium will inevitably swing back the other way again. when it does it will be interesting to see how they control it. Blues are a perfect example. They lost 8 in a row and were going to nuke the roster, but now have won 7 in a row. happens both ways

 

[Machinehead]

you were one of the people arguing with me about panarin this summer when i kept saying this is the player he is now, a guy that wont go to the house with any regularity.

i never said shooting percetage was better last year bc we drove the net. why is your thinking always this versus that: strome vs trocheck, this year vs last year. I am saying in GENERAL teams that drive the net are harder to play against and cause more chaos for a goalie to handle the save and subsequent rebound placement. That will NEVER show up in an analytic stat, and my point is just bc our CF% looks great and we are getting shots doesn't mean they are hard shots for the goalie or the opposition. Everyone knows what this team is going to do, half of hockey is establishing an elesiveness, deception, or chaos to prevent to opposition from just neutering your attack.

Kreider isnt going to those areas, people loved to kill vatrano but he did it all the time and has been replaced with kravtsov's ghost or whoever else they play out of position. Strome was terrible at it but he would go to the net on plays where as vinny appears to now want to stay higher up for skill plays. laffy is completely lost and isnt driving the net like he did before. not to mention the other replacement level player downgrades we have on the 4th line now or in reaves' case a player slipping further with age.

a deflection sure could happen if they were in the lane. a rebound goal off a post could happen if guys are driving to the net anticipating rebounds instead of standing still and waiting to see if a rebound pops out. it is all relative...

I kind of knew Panarin is the player he is but somebody has to score the goals. For all the complaining about Panarin and all the complaining about this team being unable to score, he has 22 points in 19 games. I get "hard to play against" but you also need skill to win. Beat the goalie from anywhere, cross-ice pass, perimeter ass skill. It's actually a good thing to have.

As far as the driving the net, we could talk about that, and argue, and conject, and agree, and disagree. That's fine. I get that part.

What I'm saying is, whether or not that's true, we're ALSO shooting in terrible luck. Both things can be true.

NHL teams don't shoot <8% unless they're just talentless or they had a bad run of luck. It's a stone cold fact that the Rangers are experiencing poor shooting luck. They didn't cause it and they can't solve it. It just is.

There are easy-to-spot eye-test examples of this. They beat Reimer clean at least five times the other night. They practically had a 65 minute powerplay against the Flyers and scored one goal. No amount of driving the net is going to make those chances fall when they're just not going. They were already great chances.

 

[bleedblue94]

I kind of knew Panarin is the player he is but somebody has to score the goals. For all the complaining about Panarin and all the complaining about this team being unable to score, he has 22 points in 19 games. I get "hard to play against" but you also need skill to win. Beat the goalie from anywhere, cross-ice pass, perimeter ass skill. It's actually a good thing to have.

As far as the driving the net, we could talk about that, and argue, and conject, and agree, and disagree. That's fine. I get that part.

What I'm saying is, whether or not that's true, we're ALSO shooting in terrible luck. Both things can be true.

NHL teams don't shoot <8% unless they're just talentless or they had a bad run of luck. It's a stone cold fact that the Rangers are experiencing poor shooting luck. They didn't cause it and they can't solve it. It just is.

There are easy-to-spot eye-test examples of this. They beat Reimer clean at least five times the other night. They practically had a 65 minute powerplay against the Flyers and scored one goal. No amount of driving the net is going to make those chances fall when they're just not going. They were already great chances.

it is, but you also need to show the otherside of the style to keep the opponent honest in their defense. as the playoffs progressed we saw exactly what happens if you dont. teams gave him a straight lane to the net and he wouldnt take it and would force the puck through 2 or 3 defenders. i dont care as much about reg season counting stats, i care about habits and preparing for a run by addressing deficencies that held us back last year. that is why it is so frustrating. his skill and vision is ELITE and his style can compliment the strengths and weaknesses of other players, but as the season goes and d structure becomes more set you cant rely on a blanket preimeter game.

first 9 games 12pts
last 13 games 10pts

i realize for most players 10pts in 13 games is great, BUT for the season at even strength he is sitting:

first 9 games 6pts
last 13 games 4pts

trends show what I am talking about. skill should shred teams early before they find d structure. it is happening, especially at even strength

league average sp right now is in the 91% right? well that means the shooters are sitting +/- 9% so you can absolutely have teams shooting 7% if they aren't doing the things outside of the actual shot to help their chances of scoring. you will have teams on either side of the 9% median, right now we are rightfully on the wrong side of it. Saying they cant solve it is silly, it is a passive mentaily and that is the exact issue with this team most of the time. Fox is really the only guy that is proactively saying f*** it I am going to make an impact when things are so stale.

Posts mean nothing. Goalies make "saves" on shots that wouldnt have gone in (post or wide) all the time and those dont get quantified. when a team is relying on "we hit posts" it means nothing. quarter of an inch charlie and it goes in, but a quarter of an inch the other way and you miss completely. saying we hit posts is akin to saying "we would have scored but the goalie got his glove on the shot." it doesnt matter when you are almost 25% of the way through the season. it's one thing for a player or two to be struggling with the things you say, but this is a team wide thing. it is stylistic...

 

[Machinehead]

it is, but you also need to show the otherside of the style to keep the opponent honest in their defense. as the playoffs progressed we saw exactly what happens if you dont. teams gave him a straight lane to the net and he wouldnt take it and would force the puck through 2 or 3 defenders. i dont care as much about reg season counting stats, i care about habits and preparing for a run by addressing deficencies that held us back last year. that is why it is so frustrating. his skill and vision is ELITE and his style can compliment the strengths and weaknesses of other players, but as the season goes and d structure becomes more set you cant rely on a blanket preimeter game.

first 9 games 12pts
last 13 games 10pts

i realize for most players 10pts in 13 games is great, BUT for the season at even strength he is sitting:

first 9 games 6pts
last 13 games 4pts

trends show what I am talking about. skill should shred teams early before they find d structure. it is happening, especially at even strength

league average sp right now is in the 91% right? well that means the shooters are sitting +/- 9% so you can absolutely have teams shooting 7% if they aren't doing the things outside of the actual shot to help their chances of scoring. you will have teams on either side of the 9% median, right now we are rightfully on the wrong side of it. Saying they cant solve it is silly, it is a passive mentaily and that is the exact issue with this team most of the time. Fox is really the only guy that is proactively saying f*** it I am going to make an impact when things are so stale.

Posts mean nothing. Goalies make "saves" on shots that wouldnt have gone in (post or wide) all the time and those dont get quantified. when a team is relying on "we hit posts" it means nothing. quarter of an inch charlie and it goes in, but a quarter of an inch the other way and you miss completely. saying we hit posts is akin to saying "we would have scored but the goalie got his glove on the shot." it doesnt matter when you are almost 25% of the way through the season. it's one thing for a player or two to be struggling with the things you say, but this is a team wide thing. it is stylistic...

You're underestimating how much that 2% is. A .910 goalie is replacement level. A .930 goalie is a unanimous Vezina winner.

Hitting the post is missing the net, basically, which is a lot different from the goalie stopping it. Beating the goalie is the hard part. Sure, it's a quarter of an inch either way, and half of them should go your way. None of them are going our way.

25% of the season is absolutely nothing. An entire season is still a small sample.

 

[bleedblue94]

You're underestimating how much that 2% is. A .910 goalie is replacement level. A .930 goalie is a unanimous Vezina winner.

Hitting the post is missing the net, basically, which is a lot different from the goalie stopping it. Beating the goalie is the hard part. Sure, it's a quarter of an inch either way, and half of them should go your way. None of them are going our way.

25% of the season is absolutely nothing. An entire season is still a small sample.

I'm not underestimating it, I am simply saying that if there is a mean average you will have a group on either side of the mean. We are one of the groups on the bad side of the mean and it isn't simply luck after 20 games. Valley of all people shared a graphic a couple days ago show just how bad we have been at generating high danger shots. You can have 40 Rick Nash writers from the halfwall and they may look like a lot of shots but they are muffins.

I don't understand how 25 percent of a season is nothing, let alone saying a full season is still a small sample size. By that logic it's just as possible that everything good from last year may have been an anomaly, so if that is the case maybe what we are seeing this and 2nyears ago IS the norm for this group and last year's "small sample size" was an anomaly?