Better Goal Scorer.....66 or 8?

[authentic]

For me, scoring close to 900 goals over 20 seasons is harder than scoring 85 goals in one season.

True, also scoring goals is just generally harder in Ovechkin’s era on top of that. He is the greatest goal scorer of all-time no questions asked. I still don’t think it’s crazy to believe Lemieux is the best goal scorer ever at his best though.

 

[authentic]

This. Doesn’t diminish the complexity and impressiveness of the feat, but this narrative of being a long thought of “untouchable” or “unbeatable” record drives me crazy. There’s like 50 other Gretzky records that have always seemed more unreachable than total goals.

Like his assist and points, quite honestly will likely never be broken. It would take a better player than McDavid, to stay elite for 20 years atleast, to remain healthy and for scoring to stay relatively high for the entirety of their career. That’s just too much to count on.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

I just cant. It’s Lemieux. I don’t think there’s a coach in the world that would choose Ovy for one shift late in the big game over Mario in their primes.

Of course the record matters generally but that’s about longevity in the end. I watched the last decade of Gretzky’s career and he wasn’t someone you’d even consider a goal scorer. He was a pass first guy most of his career. He never seemed like that great a shooter, he was just smarter than everyone else all the time. Always in the right place - he was never the designated shooter getting fed for pp goals. The record doesn’t mean Ovy’s the best scorer, it means he did it well the longest. One game…one player? Prime Lemieux all day.

That’s not answering the question at all though, you’re comparing them overall as players for a shift or a game.

To me, the debate has one side comparing things that would’ve happened versus things that did happen.

For reference, this was Ovechkin the day he passed Mario in all-time goals. Back-to-back hat trick and a dominant performance at the age of 34. He then added almost 200 goals and counting to his totals past that point.

 

[SkinsFan09]

Do one timers not make up a pretty significant portion of his goals, especially on the PP? Or does he not stand at the circle waiting to unload a bomb?

What percentage do you count as significant?

 

[Lshap]

OV has played in an era when the NHL at least pretends to care about player safety, and defensemen aren't allowed to hack and slash with impunity. I don't believe for one second that he could have stayed this healthy for this long in Lemieux's era. One of Scott Stevens' patented shoulders to the face can drastically alter a career in an instant.

Yes, rules are more preventative today, but today's players are also faster, which increases the risk of injury. Overall, I'd guess the injury rates have remained similar between then and now. Some players are simply more injury-prone/unlucky, while others are unusually durable. You obviously prefer Lemieux, which is legit, but it gets murky if we start the what-if game – what-if Lemieux didn't get sick, what-if Ovechkin played back then. All we know is that Ovechkin has managed to sustain an elite level of scoring into his 40th year. I consider that remarkable.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

What percentage do you count as significant?

"The Washington Capitals forward has made a living firing one-timers from the left face-off circle, beating goalie after goalie after goalie on his way to 830 NHL goals."

Assuming Gulitti's numbers are correct, 127 of 302 is 42% of his career PP goals to that point had come on a one timer from the left circle. Sounds pretty significant to me.

 

[bleedgreen]

That’s not answering the question at all though, you’re comparing them overall as players for a shift or a game.

To me, the debate has one side comparing things that would’ve happened versus things that did happen.

For reference, this was Ovechkin the day he passed Mario in all-time goals. Back-to-back hat trick and a dominant performance at the age of 34. He then added almost 200 goals and counting to his totals past that point.

They’re really not comparable players and it’s just stats you’re talking about. To me the player that Ovy compares to the most is Brett Hull, who he’s obviously passed by. I would just never compare Ovy to Lemieux. A goal scoring winger vs a total dominant offensive player down the middle. I would always choose Lemieux to score over Ovy, but that’s not disrespecting what Ovy (and very importantly the Washington Capitals) have achieved.

This is just turning into an argument that Ovy’s stats make him a better player and even scorer than he is. My point was that Gretzky wasn’t a great goal scorer. And he scored 92 and has the record for all time. Thats just how dominant a player he was, much of his career he was generally the last to shoot the puck and Ovy has been being fed one timers on the pp for a generation. The numbers don’t mean that the person was the best at the skill. I would’ve never picked Gretzky for a goal scoring contest.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Yes, rules are more preventative today, but today's players are also faster, which increases the risk of injury. Overall, I'd guess the injury rates have remained similar between then and now. Some players are simply more injury-prone/unlucky, while others are unusually durable. You obviously prefer Lemieux, which is legit, but it gets murky if we start the what-if game – what-if Lemieux didn't get sick, what-if Ovechkin played back then. All we know is that Ovechkin has managed to sustain an elite level of scoring into his 40th year. I consider that remarkable.

To me, simply skating faster doesn't increase the risk of injury as much as Scott Stevens did. Or Darrian Hatcher. Or any of the other guys who made a living physically punishing anyone who dared to come into the defensive zone. Skating faster isn't going to break your wrist or finger with a slash, or end your season/career with a blindside hit to the head, or rupture your spleen with a cross check.

There are still injuries, but it's usually because of a fluke play, and not because guys are out there trying to inflict pain every single shift.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

They’re really not comparable players and it’s just stats you’re talking about. To me the player that Ovy compares to the most is Brett Hull, who he’s obviously passed by. I would just never compare Ovy to Lemieux. A goal scoring winger vs a total dominant offensive player down the middle. I would always choose Lemieux to score over Ovy, but that’s not disrespecting what Ovy (and very importantly the Washington Capitals) have achieved.

This is just turning into an argument that Ovy’s stats make him a better player and even scorer than he is. My point was that Gretzky wasn’t a great goal scorer. And he scored 92 and has the record for all time. Thats just how dominant a player he was, much of his career he was generally the last to shoot the puck and Ovy has been being fed one timers on the pp for a generation. The numbers don’t mean that the person was the best at the skill. I would’ve never picked Gretzky for a goal scoring contest.

See, that’s the problem, this just isn’t true.

The NHL itself is a goal scoring contest, and 8/99 are at the top of that conversation. They factually scored more than anyone else ever. Sure, Gretzky was a pass first player, but when his mind was set on scoring, he was not afraid of shooting it. Best example is his 5 goal game to hit 50 in 39 games.



As for the PP argument, it’s been proven for 20 years that Ovechkin was just as effective at ES. He’s 7 goals away from passing Howe for 2nd all time in that category, in an era where defensemen have never been better.

 

[SkinsFan09]

"The Washington Capitals forward has made a living firing one-timers from the left face-off circle, beating goalie after goalie after goalie on his way to 830 NHL goals."

Assuming Gulitti's numbers are correct, 127 of 302 is 42% of his career PP goals to that point had come on a one timer from the left circle. Sounds pretty significant to me.

The way people on HF talk that number should be 99.8%.

 

[Lshap]

To me, simply skating faster doesn't increase the risk of injury as much as Scott Stevens did. Or Darrian Hatcher. Or any of the other guys who made a living physically punishing anyone who dared to come into the defensive zone. Skating faster isn't going to break your wrist or finger with a slash, or end your season/career with a blindside hit to the head, or rupture your spleen with a cross check.

There are still injuries, but it's usually because of a fluke play, and not because guys are out there trying to inflict pain every single shift.

I mean, sure, Scott Stevens was a mean sonofabitch, but there was one of him. There are hundreds of players skating faster than ever before, adding injury risk even while other risks have been reduced.

Injuries continue to play a big part in the game, no matter how they happen. The bottom line is that Ovechkin has miraculously managed to avoid them, remaining almost injury-free while his peers miss games. And throughout those 20 healthy seasons he's scored a crazy-consistent number of goals.

And here he is, at 39, about to break perhaps the greatest individual record in hockey, not by limping over the finish line, but by sprinting past it. He's currently 5th in the league in goals-scored, after missing 16 games. The dude is playing against guys literally half his age. That's nuts.

Again, I'm not criticizing your preference for a legend like Lemieux, but it would be a shame to not appreciate the goal-scoring legend we're witnessing right now in real-time.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

I mean, sure, Scott Stevens was a mean sonofabitch, but there was one of him. There are hundreds of players skating faster than ever before, adding injury risk even while other risks have been reduced.

Injuries continue to play a big part in the game, no matter how they happen. The bottom line is that Ovechkin has miraculously managed to avoid them, remaining almost injury-free while his peers miss games. And throughout those 20 healthy seasons he's scored a crazy-consistent number of goals.

And here he is, at 39, about to break perhaps the greatest individual record in hockey, not by limping over the finish line, but by sprinting past it. He's currently 5th in the league in goals-scored, after missing 16 games. The dude is playing against guys literally half his age. That's nuts.

Again, I'm not criticizing your preference for a legend like Lemieux, but it would be a shame to not appreciate the goal-scoring legend we're witnessing right now in real-time.

There was also one Hatcher, and one Pronger, and one Chelios, and one McSorley, and one Kasparitus and one Blake, and one Konstantinov and one Domi and one Claude Lemiuex and one McCarty and hundreds of other guys who were slashing and cross checking with impunity or delivering crushing hits to the head.

I don't disagree that it's impressive that OV has stayed healthy and appreciate that he's still doing this well at 39, but staying healthy isn't a measure of goal scoring ability.

I'd also point out that from 2005-06 until 2015-16, OV took 4228 shots, over 1300 shots ahead of 2nd place. Only about 30 guys has more than half of OVs shot totals during that time. Is it really that impressive that the guy doubling almost everyone else's shot totals gets more to go in?

 

[Lshap]

There was also one Hatcher, and one Pronger, and one Chelios, and one McSorley, and one Kasparitus and one Blake, and one Konstantinov and one Domi and one Claude Lemiuex and one McCarty and hundreds of other guys who were slashing and cross checking with impunity or delivering crushing hits to the head.

I don't disagree that it's impressive that OV has stayed healthy and appreciate that he's still doing this well at 39, but staying healthy isn't a measure of goal scoring ability.

I'd also point out that from 2005-06 until 2015-16, OV took 4228 shots, over 1300 shots ahead of 2nd place. Only about 30 guys has more than half of OVs shot totals during that time. Is it really that impressive that the guy doubling almost everyone else's shot totals gets more to go in?

I agree – staying healthy isn't a measure of goal-scoring ability. Scoring 885 goals (and counting) is.

If you're asking if that's impressive, the answer is yes.

 

[PensPlz]

If you can't stay healthy then you can't score goals.

It's a marathon, not a sprint.

Ovie will be the greatest goal scorer to ever live. The "unbreakable record" being broken will speak for itself.

Not sure why this is a debate.

 

[paracord]

If you can't stay healthy then you can't score goals.

It's a marathon, not a sprint.

Ovie will be the greatest goal scorer to ever live. The "unbreakable record" being broken will speak for itself.

Not sure why this is a debate.

For the same reason that people say Jordan was a better scorer than LeBron.

 

[paracord]

I agree – staying healthy isn't a measure of goal-scoring ability. Scoring 885 goals (and counting) is.

If you're asking if that's impressive, the answer is yes.

Is Jagr a better goal scorer than Lemieux? He has a lot more goals.

They played together for a long time, though.....and there was no question who the Alpha Dog was.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

I agree – staying healthy isn't a measure of goal-scoring ability. Scoring 885 goals (and counting) is.

If you're asking if that's impressive, the answer is yes.

If he doesn't stay healthy, his goal scoring ability isn't getting him close to 885.

And I disagree. He's got double the attempts but not double the goals. He's a prolific shooter, but other guys convert their shots at a much higher rate.

 

[Strangle]

Goal posts already shifting I guess ...

If you're taking per-game rates into account you also have to take era-adjusted numbers in too and Mario's 616 are a whopping 381 goals less than Ovi's era-adjusted number. He's only 19th all-time in era-adjusted numbers.

Era adjusting stats is never the right answer

 

[Lshap]

If he doesn't stay healthy, his goal scoring ability isn't getting him close to 885.

And I disagree. He's got double the attempts but not double the goals. He's a prolific shooter, but other guys convert their shots at a much higher rate.

I'm not sure what point you're making. Yes, if Ovechkin wasn't so healthy he wouldn't have scored as much. And if Lemieux wasn't such a good skater he wouldn't have scored as much.

Honestly, why not simply say you prefer Lemieux and leave it at that? There's no traction in diminishing Ovechkin as he closes in on one of the greatest records ever.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

I'm not sure what point you're making. Yes, if Ovechkin wasn't so healthy he wouldn't have scored as much. And if Lemieux wasn't such a good skater he wouldn't have scored as much.

Honestly, why not simply say you prefer Lemieux and leave it at that? There's no traction in diminishing Ovechkin as he closes in on one of the greatest records ever.

What point are you trying to make? Do you think being a good skater is based on which era Lemieux played in, like staying healthy? Or do you think staying healthy is 100% skill, and not at all based on era or luck? Or is there some other way that you think staying healthy is somehow comparable to skating ability?

And you took a swipe at Lemieux in the first post I quoted, so why didn't you just say you prefer OV and leave it at that? Why try to diminish his 85 goals in 76 games, or ignore the 613 goals in 745 games he scored before injuries led him to retire for 3 years?

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

True, also scoring goals is just generally harder in Ovechkin’s era on top of that. He is the greatest goal scorer of all-time no questions asked. I still don’t think it’s crazy to believe Lemieux is the best goal scorer ever at his best though.

I'd still love to see the evidence that you believe supports your favorite claim that it's "just generally harder to score in Ovechkin's era". I know stat sites like to do some simple math based on bad assumptions to pretend they can adjust for the eras, but I've looked at this for years and still can't find any tangible reason to believe era adjusting is actually necessary, nor do I trust any of their models, since they can't check the math for accuracy.

Despite looking at this for years, I can't find a single thing that supports the idea that it was harder to score in 2008 than it was in 1998 or 1988, other than the wholly unsupported idea that the average scoring is somehow a measurement of scoring difficulty. As I have repeatedly shown, average scoring goes up when there's more guys in the league capable of outclassing most of their opponents and making it look easy, and scoring goes down when there are fewer guys in the league that can do that. OV's era only had 3 or 4 guys that fit into that category, which is why scoring was way down for so much of it. It wasn't actually harder to score, the 2nd tier guys being touted as "stars" just weren't good enough to make it look easy.

 

[Lshap]

What point are you trying to make? Do you think being a good skater is based on which era Lemieux played in, like staying healthy? Or do you think staying healthy is 100% skill, and not at all based on era or luck? Or is there some other way that you think staying healthy is somehow comparable to skating ability?

And you took a swipe at Lemieux in the first post I quoted, so why didn't you just say you prefer OV and leave it at that? Why try to diminish his 85 goals in 76 games, or ignore the 613 goals in 745 games he scored before injuries led him to retire for 3 years?

I've been crystal clear: Lemieux is the greater overall player, Ovechkin is the greater goal-scorer. I didn't take a single 'swipe' at Lemieux or your opinion; in fact, I went out of my way to acknowledge there's no wrong answer here.

Which is why I'm unclear what you're saying. It sounds like you're trying to be 'right' about a topic that, by definition, has no right answer. We're just riffing on our interpretation of "Better". I'll repeat: If you prefer Lemieux, why not simply leave it at that? You must realize that trying to diminish Ovechkin isn't going to get you very far.