Best prospect pool in the NHL (DET vs LA vs NYR vs OTT)

[RedWingzz]

1) ok but usually people not fans of their own city's team are not going to be super positive. I live 10-15 mins away from Montreal. I'm not crapping on them but I'm not usually boosting them either

2) Sure, and we also know much more about our own team's prospects. We are selling them to others. So that's where the bias is.

3) Maybe, maybe, but to be a top-6 Center in the NHL, you need to be able to score over 50 pts consistently. I don't see that for him. That's why my reasonable projection for him is a Chris Tierney level player (responsible 2-way center, ~40 pts per season). I could be wrong but I don't see more than that. Like I said in another post, I was watching him from the beginning in 2015-16 as I was scouting Chabot hard.

4) OK and it's fine. In the end, it's a matter of preference and personal belief. Several scouts even had him at #3 OA. We'll see I guess

So your list is not that bad, at the beginning at least. You are very low on some Sens prospects and it's ok. Here is my comparison. Note that I am following the Sens order (how we voted on the Sens board). I have tried to match each with your Red Wings order but also respecting position at the same time (D-men vs D-men, Centers vs Centers, Wingers vs Wingers)

Tim Stuetzle vs Lucas Raymond : STUDzle is seen as the better prospect but Raymond is not too far behind. I wanted him at 5 if the Wings didn't pick him. Both will be star to elite forwards.

Jake Sanderson vs Moritz Seider : Yes Seider will be perceived as the better prospect right now but I don't think it'll take long for Jake to close the gap. Both will be absolute studs and have very similar value IMO

Drake Batherson vs Filip Zadina : now that's interesting. Drake has a lot of Mark Stone like qualities, which will help him develop into a complete player. Yes Zadina was a high pick and has great goal scoring potential but this might be a lot closer that you seem to think. Sure, Batherson was a late bloomer and Zadina started his AHL career younger but compare their 20 y/o season in the AHL (and Zadina had more AHL experience), Batherson was over PPG right away, and NOT because he was carried by great AHL veterans. He has actually been Belleville offensive catalyst all the way. Their overall impact should be quite important in their forward group, for different reasons. Zadina for goal scoring, Batherson for playmaking and an evolving 2-way game.

Josh Norris vs Jonatan Berggren : I can understand the hype around Berggren. But Norris is a fantastic athlete (see combine results) and is already a complete dependable center. His offensive game has progressed steadily and significantly. He was not the AHL rookie by luck. And not only the best rookie, he was also considered among the top AHL players. Great if Berggren is also breaking out but I can't see anyone taking Berggren right now.

Erik Brannstrom vs Albert Johansson : I preface this, saying I know you had EB above in your ranking. AJ is progressing? Great but Brannstrom has done more impressive things at a much younger age. He is only 16 months older and has a SIGNIFICANTLY more impressive resume. This is again, no contest

Logan Brown vs Joe Veleno : While Veleno is the "safer bet", Logan has much more offensive potential. He will eventually put it all together, maybe not to a Spezza level but a NHL team will benefit having him. 6'6 ultra skilled monsters take a while to develop, it's pretty normal. This guy has too many above average NHL tools to not be a quality NHLer at some point. He'd have to be very lazy and "unwilling" to miss. But I'll give you Veleno, because frankly, I can afford it lol

Jacob Bernard-Docker vs William Wallinder : Wallinder is interesting but has a long road ahead in development to be anything to what JBD is right now

Alex Formenton vs Michael Rasmussen : I'll let you guess who will be the most succesful in the NHL. Formenton has that McDavid-like elite speed that will obviously help him a lot. But he brings a lot more than that and is not a push-over by any means. He's actually a pretty big shit disturber who creates havoc all over the ice.

Shane Pinto vs Robert Mastrosimone : not close at all

Ridly Greig vs Theodor Niederbach : Greig was just taken 28th OA, TN was taken 51st. "online scouts" concensus had Greig 36th and TN 53rd

Roby Jarventie vs Cross Hanas : read reports on 18 y/o progress. Jarventie was taken much higher and is younger. Again, not close

Rudolf Balcers vs ??????
Vitaly Abramov vs ??????
Joey Daccord vs ??????

Lassi Thomson (19th OA in 2019) vs Jared McIsaac : we're not very enlighted by Thomson progress since the last WJC. It's been more like a regress. He needs to come to NA (was supposed to play AHL) and turn things around, or he'll drop even more in our pool. I would give the nod to McIsaac but he's going to miss the rest of the season...

Egor Sokolov (61st OA in 2020) vs ??????
Tyler Kleven (44th OA in 2020) vs ??????
Filip Chlapik (48th OA in 2015 vs ??????
Mads Søgaard (37th OA in 2019) vs ??????

After Sogaard, it drops IMO. Filip Gustavsson (Swedish goalie stud prospect not that long ago) was voted 20. I would have voted a few more guys above him but that's where I have a significant quality cut-off in the pool. But do you realize our #15-19 ranked prospects are recent 1st/2nd round picks? In comparison, you seem to have recent Red Wings 2nd round picks much higher in your pool. That should give you an idea of how crazy deep/good the Sens current pool is. The guy we just traded up to get at 44th OA (was ranked 36th on McKenzie list) was voted 17th...

Seriously, the top of both pools are close, then the rest is not close at all, like really not close.

Look at my next quote, I'll include some more info on this. And by the way, you don't need to defend yourself about being "biased". You're the one who actually accused me of this initially in post #166 (and pretty agressively lol)

Best prospect pool in the NHL (DET vs LA vs NYR vs OTT)

For the record I was initially calling you biased for having Veleno rated so low. It's fine if you don't love him as a prospect, but I still think he's a quality NHL player in the not too distant future.

Also, for every Gustavsson you guys have (and yes, I know who he is, no need to include a description in brackets) we have a Filip Larsson.

Once teams hit their B-list prospects, it's all a crapshoot at that point anyways. I never once even said anything about who's prospect pool I think is better. I agree with your assessment, the talent at the top is pretty close, while the Sens may have a few more guys deeper in their pool. In the end, those guys statistically speaking, are unlikely to be a factor anyways. There is no way all the players you are mentioning all become NHLers. Nobody ever hits on all their picks, so some of the Sens prospects you are discussing here won't pan out, just like some of the Wings ones won't pan out either.

Another thing, just watch Albert Johansson (and Niederbach, if he makes the team) closely for Sweden at the World Juniors this year. Johansson looks like an NHL player to me, he's just so smart and smooth. I'm not saying he's gonna be a top pair guy in the NHL, but to me he's a safe bet to be a regular NHLer. The Sens are loaded with prospects, but I think you may be underestimating the Wings pool a bit. The Wings have a ton of players who are currently thriving in Europe, so it can only benefit them in the long run to be playing meaningful games at the moment.

 

[Bileur]

For the record I was initially calling you biased for having Veleno rated so low. It's fine if you don't love him as a prospect, but I still think he's a quality NHL player in the not too distant future.

Also, for every Gustavsson you guys have (and yes, I know who he is, no need to include a description in brackets) we have a Filip Larsson.

Once teams hit their B-list prospects, it's all a crapshoot at that point anyways. I never once even said anything about who's prospect pool I think is better. I agree with your assessment, the talent at the top is pretty close, while the Sens may have a few more guys deeper in their pool. In the end, those guys statistically speaking, are unlikely to be a factor anyways. There is no way all the players you are mentioning all become NHLers. Nobody ever hits on all their picks, so some of the Sens prospects you are discussing here won't pan out, just like some of the Wings ones won't pan out either.

Another thing, just watch Albert Johansson (and Niederbach, if he makes the team) closely for Sweden at the World Juniors this year. Johansson looks like an NHL player to me, he's just so smart and smooth. I'm not saying he's gonna be a top pair guy in the NHL, but to me he's a safe bet to be a regular NHLer. The Sens are loaded with prospects, but I think you may be underestimating the Wings pool a bit. The Wings have a ton of players who are currently thriving in Europe, so it can only benefit them in the long run to be playing meaningful games at the moment.

I haven’t seen much of Jarventie or Niederbach outside of highlights. Given their recent selections almost 20 picks apart and subsequent production in their respective leagues (Jarventie putting up 7-7-14 in 17 games in the Liiga and Niederbach seemingly tearing up J20 having been held scoreless in SHL) I’m intrigued about what makes you rank Niederbach higher.

Any particular insights about their games?

 

[Pavels Dog]

Totally agree with all this. That was my point, in 1 year Sanderson and Drysdale should be as good as Seider is now, or could even be better. They could also be worse of course.

So it means... you'd be voting Abramov and Balcers over Veleno? Because they are more proven and impactful in pro hockey at the moment.

Hey, have to be consistent with arguments

There are big problems with what you are trying to argue here. I'm not sure if it's an honest attempt at debate or just trying to find a "loophole".

You can never assume development like Seider's. It would be as silly as if I rated Sanderson at #14 in the Wings pool because MAYBE Sanderson will totally bust. Nah, the reality is an expected development trajectory, being somewhat realistic, leads Sanderson comfortably on a path to being a #2-3D. Drysdale something similar, but I'd have his floor lower. That still means they're awesome, awesome prospects.

I'm not rating Veleno ahead of those guys you mention because I'm assuming he's going to explode, I'm simply seeing his development trajectory and projecting it in a somewhat realistic manner. Even his doubters are pretty much in agreement we're looking at a #3rd line C at worst. Guys like Abramov and Balcers really have to become pretty legit top 6 wingers to be more valuable than that, and I'm not sure I see the realistic expectations for those guys as being that caliber of player.

When talking about development trajectories it's also a lot easier to project players once they have at least 1 or 2 post-draft seasons, and especially once they play pro hockey. I don't need to see Veleno as a point-per game player in the AHL in his d+5 to know he could do that, and I can pretty safely say he will be an NHL regular faster than Balcers/Abramov.

lol what am I ignoring exactly? You're just not following...

That was for the Abramov/Veleno comparison :

Joe Veleno (born in January 2000) :

(D-1) 17-18 y/o : 64 GP 22 G 57 A 79 Pts
(D+1) 18-19 y/o : 59 GP 42 G 62 A 104 Pts

17-18 y/o means he was 17 when the season started but turned 18 in January

Vitali Abramov (born in May 1998) :

(D-1) 17 y/o : 63 GP 38 G 55 A 93 Pts
(D+1) 18 y/o : 66 GP 46 G 58 A 104 Pts

17 y/o means he was 17 y/o the WHOLE season. He did these things YOUNGER than Veleno. Because of the NHL-CHL agreement, he was forced to play another season in the Q (where he posted similar numbers in 10 less games). That's where he became "older" in the comparison because Veleno was able to play in the AHL right away due to his previous exceptional status in the Q so he had completed his 4 CHL years. Should he be immune to be compared with anybody because of that?

It really does not matter one bit why Abramov "became older".. what matters it that he's older and Veleno is about 1 year ahead in the development trajectory.

A small age difference doesn't mean much if one prospect is clearly ahead of the other. Yes Veleno was a few months older, but he was clearly ahead of Abramov as a prospect. After that, Veleno became a pro 1 year earlier (8 months younger), and that means it becomes even tougher for Abramov to make up the difference in their status. Abramov would have needed to not only perform comparable to the younger Veleno, but clearly outperform him. He didn't.

I never said it was the best league out there. Again, you seem to want to put words in my mouth... Maybe to help an argument? He went there because he has plenty of friends, he played there as a teenager. He would most likely be in the NHL right now if there was a season

You implied that Balcers performance in the Norway league was an indication he had not been set back. I countered that there's no way one can read his performance over there in any such way. It's a really weak league that anyone with NHL caliber skill should easily dominate.
I absolutely think he's a longshot. A 2015 late round pick that had 3 points in 15 NHL games last season? Come on. I understand these undersized, skilled guys are fun prospects but you also have to take into account how likely they are to actually make it.

I mean in this very post, you are saying Seider is more proven than Sanderon and Drysdale (which is true). Well, it's EXACTLY the same thing with JBD over Johansson

Also, "I'll give you that you are at least consistent in ignoring the relative ages of players", please note that JBD is ONLY 6 months older than Albert Johansson... so what he did last year, he was 6 months younger than AJ will this year

SHL >>>> college? Ridiculous if you think there's that many ">" in difference.

Except JBD isn't more proven. There is some difficulty in comparing when players are at completely different leagues and levels, but most people would rate SHL as a much, much harder league than NCAA.
You can not compare Docker's performance at NCAA with what Seider has already proven at the pro level. You seem to think older= automatically more proven. That's not how it works. That's not how any of this works. Seider wouldn't really be more proven than Sanderson/Drysdale if he had just survived at the AHL and SHL level. If he had put up half the numbers he has, gotten less icetime etc. The reason he's more proven is because he has shown to be a dominant D-man at these levels which indicates a strong trajectory of reaching the more hopeful outlooks for his potential.

 

[Xspyrit]

For the record I was initially calling you biased for having Veleno rated so low. It's fine if you don't love him as a prospect, but I still think he's a quality NHL player in the not too distant future.

Going back to the start of the conversation, I realize that I was a bit hard on Veleno but in the end I said that he was a safe bet and I see him as a Chris Tierney level player, which is already pretty decent. My whole point was how he would be ranked in the Sens pool (by Sens fans). Like I said, maybe he'd be voted above Balcers for #12 (still have his fair share of fans quite high on him) but I can't guarantee that and I don't see how he would be voted above anyone in the top-11. Sens fans are not super patient with prospects and really aren't shy voting them down, even recent high picks (see Lassi Thomson, 19th OA in 2019, guy is 9 months younger than Veleno, already dropped to 15th and would probably drop again to 18th-20th now)

Also, for every Gustavsson you guys have (and yes, I know who he is, no need to include a description in brackets) we have a Filip Larsson.

Uh... Filip Larsson doesn't have anything close to the track record of Filip Gustavsson, who has been voted after Joey Daccord and Mads Sogaard. But should have probably been voted after Kevin Mandolese too.

Not sure what you are trying to say here

Once teams hit their B-list prospects, it's all a crapshoot at that point anyways. I never once even said anything about who's prospect pool I think is better. I agree with your assessment, the talent at the top is pretty close, while the Sens may have a few more guys deeper in their pool. In the end, those guys statistically speaking, are unlikely to be a factor anyways. There is no way all the players you are mentioning all become NHLers. Nobody ever hits on all their picks, so some of the Sens prospects you are discussing here won't pan out, just like some of the Wings ones won't pan out either.

If by "B-list prospects", you talk about guys that are less likely to make it, then the Sens B-list prospects doesn't start at least until #19. The top-18 are all legit prospects and most will be NHL players in some capacity, or at least good/very good pro players in other leagues. There could be a few careers derailed by injuries but the luck factor is always unpredicatable.

The #19 is 6'7 monster athletic goalie Mads Sogaard (37th OA in 2019). It's still very early in this project so that's why I didn't include him in the "A-List prospects"

Jonathan Davidsson (who was Jackets ~5th best prospect 2 years ago and almost made the team out of camp) is about to get voted #25 in our pool, because he missed most of last season and because of insane pool depht. Maxence Guenette (who looks now like a PPG top D-man in the Q) has been voted #24. Just examples.

But agreed with the general idea, they won't all be as good as we hope/think they will be. But I'm ready to take bets that in the Sens top-18, at least 15 will play some games in the NHL (lol easy as 9 already did and it doesn't include Stuetzle and Sanderson) and at least 10 will be regular NHL players (with a few stars and very good players)

Look at that top-18, and let me know who you think will "bust"

You have to keep in mind that several of these prospects were not Sens picks (or were additional high picks) and were acquired in return for trading superstars in their prime (Karlsson, Stone) or other significant players (Duchene, Brassard, Pageau, Dzingel, etc)

Because of it, the Sens pool is pretty special at the moment (also no hockey for a long time : less graduations). You basically have a rebuilding team pool + another pool from the prospect/draft capital result of a firesale (Stuetzle, Norris, Brannstrom, JBD, Greig, Balcers, etc)

Anyway, it'll be a fun thread to bump in a few years. It doesn't mean that the Sens will win more than some other teams or that they won't screw up on some fronts (for example, trade Logan Brown too early?) or pay everyone, but I think this pool will produce a really great amount of NHL talent.

Another thing, just watch Albert Johansson (and Niederbach, if he makes the team) closely for Sweden at the World Juniors this year. Johansson looks like an NHL player to me, he's just so smart and smooth. I'm not saying he's gonna be a top pair guy in the NHL, but to me he's a safe bet to be a regular NHLer. The Sens are loaded with prospects, but I think you may be underestimating the Wings pool a bit. The Wings have a ton of players who are currently thriving in Europe, so it can only benefit them in the long run to be playing meaningful games at the moment.

Yes will keep an eye on him/them. Good thing for the Wings if has been progressing well. Talking about "safe bets", I wonder if you see how many "safe bets" there is in the Sens pool right now. Even the guys at #8 (Formenton), #9 (Pinto) and #10 (Greig) are very close to safe bets to be decent NHL players at least. Formenton is a lock IMO and will have a great impact. He is geting voted #49 in the HF Prospects Ranking, Berggren was voted #43.

Finally, it's not that I am underestimating the Wings pool, it's easily one of the best in the NHL. I'd probably have them #3-4 behind Ottawa and LA (who are very close). Rangers have by far the most young talent in the NHL but they graduated several players lately (Kakko, Fox, Lindgren, Georgiyev and Shestyorkin turns 25 y/o in 1 month) which gives a chance to other pools. They still have a very good ~top-10 but it drops fast after that. Just a bit better than the Wings because of Lafreniere and I think their top-9 is better.

Tiers :

LA/Ottawa
NYR/Detroit/Carolina
NJ/Montreal/Minnesota/Colorado?

 

[Xspyrit]

There are big problems with what you are trying to argue here. I'm not sure if it's an honest attempt at debate or just trying to find a "loophole".

You can never assume development like Seider's. It would be as silly as if I rated Sanderson at #14 in the Wings pool because MAYBE Sanderson will totally bust. Nah, the reality is an expected development trajectory, being somewhat realistic, leads Sanderson comfortably on a path to being a #2-3D. Drysdale something similar, but I'd have his floor lower. That still means they're awesome, awesome prospects.

You are right in theory, we can't assume that things will go right for Drysdale and Sanderson but if you are being honest, they are easily considered better prospects now than Seider was at the moment of the 2019 draft. Seider has continued to develop nicely so we'll have to see what happens for the other 2. For now, it's normal that Seider is being voted above them (#6 in HF prospects ranking vs #12 and #15)

In the end, I rank prospects as I project them. Ex : I rank Sogaard above Gustavsson (Sens board did the same) because we project him to end up better, even though Gustavsson is older and more "proven"

It means that in theory I could vote Sanderson above Seider but I won't because I think Seider will be a stud. I see Sanderson ending up very near in terms of level impact but I have to give the edge to Seider because he has developped farther so far.

The point is you have to be consistent because you have used the same argument differently, like @bert also noted. A lot of things are said and we are not paid to discuss, it's normal to make mistakes. I do too

I'm not rating Veleno ahead of those guys you mention because I'm assuming he's going to explode, I'm simply seeing his development trajectory and projecting it in a somewhat realistic manner. Even his doubters are pretty much in agreement we're looking at a #3rd line C at worst. Guys like Abramov and Balcers really have to become pretty legit top 6 wingers to be more valuable than that, and I'm not sure I see the realistic expectations for those guys as being that caliber of player.

I understand and I do exactly the same. I have said multiple times that I see Veleno as a "safe bet" and project him at the same kind of level that Chris Tierney (pretty decent player). Doesn't mean I'd rank him top-11 in the Sens pool. Yes, the pool is that good at the moment.

The point (and I have also repeated multiple times) is to let you know WHERE Veleno would be ranked if he was a Sens prospect (I'm not the only Sens fan). You've seen the list. If you vote him above Balcers and Abramov, ok no problem, but who do you vote him above in the top-11? You never answered that.

When talking about development trajectories it's also a lot easier to project players once they have at least 1 or 2 post-draft seasons, and especially once they play pro hockey. I don't need to see Veleno as a point-per game player in the AHL in his d+5 to know he could do that, and I can pretty safely say he will be an NHL regular faster than Balcers/Abramov.

That's because you don't follow the Sens and their prospects. Balcers was becoming a NHL regular towards the end of the 2018-19 season. He had 14 pts in 36 games (32 pts pace per 82 games) with just 12:21 TOI/GP. He was mainly playing with Chris Tierney, Magnus Paajarvi, Mikkel Boedker and Bobby Ryan (who has been fighting a lot of injuries and personal demons the last 2-3 years). He was already showing signs of a good 3rd liner in his 21 y/o rookie season. He is pretty skilled and has a great motor with sniping ability. Plays a mature responsible game too. All he needs is more NHL experience and to play with better players.

The only reason why he wasn't a regular NHL player last year is because of his pre-season game injury that sidelined him 2 months. He was still able to put over PPG in the AHL coming back from injury. Then when finally had the chance to re-establish himself at the NHL level, covid.

Like I said before, I would have Veleno above Abramov in the Sens pool. I can still compare their production (Abramov did more in the Q while being younger, and then did more in the AHL while being older as he "lost" 1 development year due to the transfer agreement)

It really does not matter one bit why Abramov "became older".. what matters it that he's older and Veleno is about 1 year ahead in the development trajectory.

Outside the fact that they are not comparable players, where is Veleno ahead exactly? Like I have explained, the only reason why he began his AHL career younger (8 months younger than Abramov) is because he received the "exceptional" status (didn't live up to it) in the Q and completed his 4 CHL seasons younger.

A small age difference doesn't mean much if one prospect is clearly ahead of the other. Yes Veleno was a few months older, but he was clearly ahead of Abramov as a prospect. After that, Veleno became a pro 1 year earlier (8 months younger), and that means it becomes even tougher for Abramov to make up the difference in their status. Abramov would have needed to not only perform comparable to the younger Veleno, but clearly outperform him. He didn't.

In the Q? Did you follow Abramov in that league? He was basically their Kucherov

Ok so Abramov did not outperform Veleno in his AHL rookie season (while being 8 months older). However he posted a 0.80 PPG in his sophomore season and has rather shown well in the Sens pre-season (until injury). When will Veleno be able to do that is the question

The only thing Veleno has above guys like Balcers and Abramov is being a safer bet to transfer to the NHL level. Formenton is also much safer to transfer well to the NHL than Batherson. Who has been seen as the best prospect though?

You implied that Balcers performance in the Norway league was an indication he had not been set back. I countered that there's no way one can read his performance over there in any such way. It's a really weak league that anyone with NHL caliber skill should easily dominate.
I absolutely think he's a longshot. A 2015 late round pick that had 3 points in 15 NHL games last season? Come on. I understand these undersized, skilled guys are fun prospects but you also have to take into account how likely they are to actually make it.

Ok but you know what being set back means? If he regressed, maybe even putting 1.5 PPG in Norway's league would be hard. By all reports, it doesn't seem to be the case, which is encouraging for a guy coming back from a significant injury and a long pause.

Sure, Norway's league is a tier below Sweden and Finland but you're selling that league short if you think it's a "really weak league"

So he's a longshot and the main argument is "3 points in 15 NHL games last season"? The context has been explained. And undersized is a big word. He's almost 6'0 and 180+ lbs. If he is still working on getting stronger, it won't be a problem for him. As I said, he totally looked like a NHL player in 2018-19 and quite promising actually (He was seen as a Sharks top prospect when acquired just before the season). He was 21 years old. His injury last year and then covid could have derailed things up, it's very possible. Who knows when no NA pro hockey is played?

Except JBD isn't more proven. There is some difficulty in comparing when players are at completely different leagues and levels, but most people would rate SHL as a much, much harder league than NCAA.

You can not compare Docker's performance at NCAA with what Seider has already proven at the pro level. You seem to think older= automatically more proven. That's not how it works. That's not how any of this works. Seider wouldn't really be more proven than Sanderson/Drysdale if he had just survived at the AHL and SHL level. If he had put up half the numbers he has, gotten less icetime etc. The reason he's more proven is because he has shown to be a dominant D-man at these levels which indicates a strong trajectory of reaching the more hopeful outlooks for his potential.

In the sense that JBD has had 1 more year of development and proved himself in the WJC whereas AJ is about to have the chance to do it (JBD was 6 months younger than AJ will be though). That's why it's very similar to what you were saying about Seider vs Sanderson (15 months younger)

But you're right though, comparing different leagues and levels is basically impossible. The NCAA competition level is pretty good though even if not as good overall as the SHL. Also, never said anything close to "older= automatically more proven". If I did, I totally messed up my communication. I have no problem ranking a guy like Jarventie ahead of Balcers or Chlapik who are older and much more proven at the pro level (in the 2 best leagues too)

So I generally agree with that part, and development being about trajectory/projection. That's why Sens have probably at least 11 prospects that we project better than Veleno. That's also why we won't be shy to compare Sanderson to Seider, or JBD to Albert Johansson in the future.

 

[Pavels Dog]

You are right in theory, we can't assume that things will go right for Drysdale and Sanderson but if you are being honest, they are easily considered better prospects now than Seider was at the moment of the 2019 draft. Seider has continued to develop nicely so we'll have to see what happens for the other 2. For now, it's normal that Seider is being voted above them (#6 in HF prospects ranking vs #12 and #15)

In the end, I rank prospects as I project them. Ex : I rank Sogaard above Gustavsson (Sens board did the same) because we project him to end up better, even though Gustavsson is older and more "proven"

It means that in theory I could vote Sanderson above Seider but I won't because I think Seider will be a stud. I see Sanderson ending up very near in terms of level impact but I have to give the edge to Seider because he has developped farther so far.

The point is you have to be consistent because you have used the same argument differently, like @bert also noted. A lot of things are said and we are not paid to discuss, it's normal to make mistakes. I do too

The problem both you and bert seem to struggle with is that it doesn't help to be older if you haven't actually proven anything. Your comparison to Sogaard and Gustavsson shows this failure to understand what it means to have shown something with your development. Gustavsson has two TERRIBLE stints in the AHL. If anything, he has proven that he's not a legit prospect anymore. Of course a younger, higher pick at the same position should be ranked higher.

I'd agree that Sanderson/Drysdale were ranked higher at the draft than Seider, however that difference is completely eliminated by now. If Seider steps into the NHL for 20-30 games, puts up 0-3 points and looks out of place, that would significantly hurt his standing as a prospect if we discuss this again in 6 months. I.e. being older and ahead in development also comes with expectations. If you fail to meet expectations, younger, equally promising prospects will overtake you.

The point (and I have also repeated multiple times) is to let you know WHERE Veleno would be ranked if he was a Sens prospect (I'm not the only Sens fan). You've seen the list. If you vote him above Balcers and Abramov, ok no problem, but who do you vote him above in the top-11? You never answered that.

Greig definitely, probably ahead of Jarventie also. I don't know, I'm not sure I think Veleno should be that far behind guys like Norris/Brown. In my eyes if you combined the two pools there would be a tier with guys like Norris/Rasmussen/Brown/Veleno, maybe Brännström too. They're all good prospects, but none stand out as doing fantastic things with their development and no one have shown signs of becoming a high-end NHLer.

Ok so Abramov did not outperform Veleno in his AHL rookie season (while being 8 months older). However he posted a 0.80 PPG in his sophomore season and has rather shown well in the Sens pre-season (until injury). When will Veleno be able to do that is the question

The only thing Veleno has above guys like Balcers and Abramov is being a safer bet to transfer to the NHL level. Formenton is also much safer to transfer well to the NHL than Batherson. Who has been seen as the best prospect though?

Lol, "the only thing".
The only thing Josh Norris has over Otto Kivenmaki is being a safer bet to transfer to the NHL. You realize how dumb that logic is? Having tools that translate to the NHL is one of the most important factors in judging prospects. The difference between how Formenton/Batherson can translate to NHL is not as big as the difference between Veleno and Abramov/Balcers. You are trying to put Veleno in a tier of prospects he simply does not belong in.

Ok but you know what being set back means? If he regressed, maybe even putting 1.5 PPG in Norway's league would be hard. By all reports, it doesn't seem to be the case, which is encouraging for a guy coming back from a significant injury and a long pause.

Sure, Norway's league is a tier below Sweden and Finland but you're selling that league short if you think it's a "really weak league"

It's a really weak league.. come on. We can be honest here. Sure I understand there are injury issues, that Covid stopped him from playing more NHL games last season.. but those things are similar for a lot of prospects. Fact of the matter is a 23 year old putting up numbers in Norway means absolutely nothing. A 23 year old scoring 3 points in 15 NHL games might mean something.

In the sense that JBD has had 1 more year of development and proved himself in the WJC whereas AJ is about to have the chance to do it (JBD was 6 months younger than AJ will be though). That's why it's very similar to what you were saying about Seider vs Sanderson (15 months younger)

It's not similar at all.. I feel pretty comfortable saying Johansson should be able to match 1 point in 7 games, otherwise I'd be disappointed. And since he's already good defensively against men, he should reasonably be expected to handle junior hockey decently as well. JBD/Johansson is a close comparison, because nothing JBD has done is something that looks difficult for AJ to achieve.

Seider/Sanderson is more similar to if a person rated Lucas Raymond at the draft as high as Elias Pettersson 1 year after the draft. Yes, their status may have been comparable right at the draft, but EP broke all expectations and exploded in his d+1 and continued in his d+2 to show he was arguably the best player of the draft. If your baseline expectation of Sanderson is that, odds are you will be disappointed. He COULD do it, but he could also disappoint greatly. The expectation should be somewhere in the middle, not assuming the high-end of his potential.

 

[bert]

The problem both you and bert seem to struggle with is that it doesn't help to be older if you haven't actually proven anything. Your comparison to Sogaard and Gustavsson shows this failure to understand what it means to have shown something with your development. Gustavsson has two TERRIBLE stints in the AHL. If anything, he has proven that he's not a legit prospect anymore. Of course a younger, higher pick at the same position should be ranked higher.

I'd agree that Sanderson/Drysdale were ranked higher at the draft than Seider, however that difference is completely eliminated by now. If Seider steps into the NHL for 20-30 games, puts up 0-3 points and looks out of place, that would significantly hurt his standing as a prospect if we discuss this again in 6 months. I.e. being older and ahead in development also comes with expectations. If you fail to meet expectations, younger, equally promising prospects will overtake you.


Greig definitely, probably ahead of Jarventie also. I don't know, I'm not sure I think Veleno should be that far behind guys like Norris/Brown. In my eyes if you combined the two pools there would be a tier with guys like Norris/Rasmussen/Brown/Veleno, maybe Brännström too. They're all good prospects, but none stand out as doing fantastic things with their development and no one have shown signs of becoming a high-end NHLer.



Lol, "the only thing".
The only thing Josh Norris has over Otto Kivenmaki is being a safer bet to transfer to the NHL. You realize how dumb that logic is? Having tools that translate to the NHL is one of the most important factors in judging prospects. The difference between how Formenton/Batherson can translate to NHL is not as big as the difference between Veleno and Abramov/Balcers. You are trying to put Veleno in a tier of prospects he simply does not belong in.



It's a really weak league.. come on. We can be honest here. Sure I understand there are injury issues, that Covid stopped him from playing more NHL games last season.. but those things are similar for a lot of prospects. Fact of the matter is a 23 year old putting up numbers in Norway means absolutely nothing. A 23 year old scoring 3 points in 15 NHL games might mean something.



It's not similar at all.. I feel pretty comfortable saying Johansson should be able to match 1 point in 7 games, otherwise I'd be disappointed. And since he's already good defensively against men, he should reasonably be expected to handle junior hockey decently as well. JBD/Johansson is a close comparison, because nothing JBD has done is something that looks difficult for AJ to achieve.

Seider/Sanderson is more similar to if a person rated Lucas Raymond at the draft as high as Elias Pettersson 1 year after the draft. Yes, their status may have been comparable right at the draft, but EP broke all expectations and exploded in his d+1 and continued in his d+2 to show he was arguably the best player of the draft. If your baseline expectation of Sanderson is that, odds are you will be disappointed. He COULD do it, but he could also disappoint greatly. The expectation should be somewhere in the middle, not assuming the high-end of his potential.

First of all you need to educate yourself on player development and timeliness. You are clueless when it comes to understanding when players develop. Positionally and physically different body types and position can take longer than others. For example small skilled players typically don't take as long. Goaltenders take years and years, big players take longer and d men take longer than forwards. If you don't believe me start doing some research, look at the data. Or perhaps you haven't followed the sport long enough to identify these tendencies.

I do have to ask you why bother responding if you are this much of a homer? Seider in my opinion was never a reach and a great prospect but you're now comparing him to Pettersson.... In your opinion every match-up is favorable to the red wing and you move to goal posts to try and prove your point every which way to benefit the Detroit player. If you haven't noticed Detroit is the outlier in this poll they don't even belong based on the results. Your takes are bad and have the audacity to call someone else's opinion 'dumb'...... Sorry no Veleno isn't in the same tier as Norris, Brown and Formenton and no Kivenmaki isn't the same level of prospect as Norris, its not close either. No AJ isn't as good prospect as Bernard Docker. Thats like me coming in and saying Jarventie is the same level prospect as Raymond because he has performed as well or better this year. It's a terrible take Raymond is clearly way better. If you can't look at it remotely objectively and need to take shots and cherry pick stats to prove your point you are wasting everyone's time. 7 games in Norway doesn't define Balcers over the last 150 he played in North America.

 

[Pavels Dog]

I do have to ask you why bother responding if you are this much of a homer? Seider in my opinion was never a reach and a great prospect but you're now comparing him to Pettersson....

I didn't though, I just used Raymond/Pettersson as a comparable for Sanderson/Seider and how players can be viewed similarly at the draft but if a player greatly exceeds expectations that doesn't mean the other player should be expected to do the same. A Pettersson d+1 isn't the baseline expectation for Raymond's d+1 just like a Seider d+1 isn't the expectation for Sanderson.
Clarification: NO, Seider is not on Pettersson's level.

In your opinion every match-up is favorable to the red wing and you move to goal posts to try and prove your point every which way to benefit the Detroit player.

Eh, that's your opinion. Yes, I think Veleno compares favorably to some of the depth prospects in Ottawa's pool. Have already said I think Sens have better depth, beyond 8-9 their pool has more going for it than Detroit's. That doesn't mean I think players from Detroit's top 6-7 should end up at #12-13 in Ottawa's ranking. If you think I'm a homer for not seeing Abramov/Balcers/Veleno as same caliber prospects I suggest you make a poll. I would be highly surprised if Veleno didn't end up winning that poll significantly.

and no Kivenmaki isn't the same level of prospect as Norris, its not close either.

Specifically used that as an example of how ignoring how many NHL-caliber tools a player has could lead to crazy comparison between players. Make it Niederbach vs. Norris if that's less offensive (and again, that's still a crazy comparison, those two are not near eachother).

Your takes are bad and have the audacity to call someone else's opinion 'dumb'......

Don't, just don't. I called the logic of that specific argument dumb, that's not the same as a blanket statement. You know, like the blanket statement you are putting on my entire opinion.

No AJ isn't as good prospect as Bernard Docker. Thats like me coming in and saying Jarventie is the same level prospect as Raymond because he has performed as well or better this year.

Are you comparing JBD to Raymond..?
Agree to disagree, but there's no easy way to prove what's right or wrong there. Except to say that AJ is playing against men and earning rave reviews by people who are not Red Wings fans most nights. He is outproducing players like Björnfot and Broberg, while in my opinion (and statistically) playing better defense. He was good last season too so it's not just 15-20 games.
What's the basis of implying the JDB vs. AJ difference is as big as the Raymond vs. Jarventie difference? What makes JBD clearly better?

 

[Xspyrit]

The problem both you and bert seem to struggle with is that it doesn't help to be older if you haven't actually proven anything. Your comparison to Sogaard and Gustavsson shows this failure to understand what it means to have shown something with your development. Gustavsson has two TERRIBLE stints in the AHL. If anything, he has proven that he's not a legit prospect anymore. Of course a younger, higher pick at the same position should be ranked higher.

I'd agree that Sanderson/Drysdale were ranked higher at the draft than Seider, however that difference is completely eliminated by now. If Seider steps into the NHL for 20-30 games, puts up 0-3 points and looks out of place, that would significantly hurt his standing as a prospect if we discuss this again in 6 months. I.e. being older and ahead in development also comes with expectations. If you fail to meet expectations, younger, equally promising prospects will overtake you.

Well, it wouldn't be just Bert and me if more people would look at this closely. You will use the argument when it fits your narrative and then flip flop when it doesn't. You have proven it in this thread several times. It's there for anyone to see

Again, I never said (and knowing Bert, he didn't as well) that being older automatically makes you a better prospect. I have already addressed that but it seems that you just choose to ignore what is said to you or it just flies way over your head. Look at the way the Sens board vote prospects. We just voted 18 y/o Jarventie over several older and more proven prospects, even Balcers who has looked good in the NHL before. Sens fans used to vote more based on "NHL readiness" and/or "more proven" as the main factor(s). With time, it has shifted to "projection" more because it's something that several people (including me) have worked on to make people see differently, and people also gained a lot of experience. Anyway I have already explained all that. So I'm basically repeating.

How come the Gustavsson vs Sogaard comparison doesn't work? It's because Gustavsson hasn't shown enough progress (in NA) in his development that Sogaard (freshly drafted, still super raw) has been voted above him... It's exactly your argument. You're pretty hard to follow with all the flip flopping

I have to note though that Belleville defense has been terrible since their initial season in 2017-18. It has gotten slightly better but still very below average. That is exactly why Joey Daccord is really far from being a "meh" goalie prospect like it has been said in this thread (I think it was another Red Wings fan). He came in and was really great, it's not just a matter of stats. That 0.915% could have been much more on a team with better defense and team structure. The only reason Belleville was so powerful last season is the five 20-21 y/o prospects and Joey Daccord. Belleville is poor like Ottawa, they don't "hire" a lot of good vets. Yet our prospects (that you take their numbers with a grain of salt) DOMINATED the AHL as rookies and sophomores.

Greig definitely, probably ahead of Jarventie also. I don't know, I'm not sure I think Veleno should be that far behind guys like Norris/Brown. In my eyes if you combined the two pools there would be a tier with guys like Norris/Rasmussen/Brown/Veleno, maybe Brännström too. They're all good prospects, but none stand out as doing fantastic things with their development and no one have shown signs of becoming a high-end NHLer.

So Veleno/Rasmussen are in a similar tier as Norris/Brown/Brannstrom? Everyone has the right to have his opinion but you might be on a very lowly populated island here. I mean, they're not a million miles away but they're also clearly and comfortably below, well according to pretty much everyone and what these guys have done on their development paths.

And you don't need to become a "high-end NHLer" to be a significantly better prospect than someone else.

Also, I suggest you watch Belleville games, or at least highlights to see what Norris/Brown/Brannstrom can do. What makes you think Veleno/Rasmussen are in the same tier? Or even close?

Lol, "the only thing".
The only thing Josh Norris has over Otto Kivenmaki is being a safer bet to transfer to the NHL. You realize how dumb that logic is? Having tools that translate to the NHL is one of the most important factors in judging prospects. The difference between how Formenton/Batherson can translate to NHL is not as big as the difference between Veleno and Abramov/Balcers. You are trying to put Veleno in a tier of prospects he simply does not belong in

Ok so the FACTS are

- Abramov was better in the Q than Veleno while being younger
- Abramov has been better in the AHL
- Balcers also has a pretty decent/good AHL/NHL track record
- Abramov and Balcers are skilled players

So what makes you think that Veleno should be in a much higher tier of prospects? Or even close to a player like Logan Brown who has a much much better skillset?

Veleno is younger so he still has some development time ahead but he still has to PROVE IT at the pro level. What in his development makes you believe that he will be much better than these guys outside of being "safer"?

Veleno's development trajectory doesn't suggest anything special that he should be way above guys like Balcers and Abramov or even close to guys like Norris and Brannstrom. He's safer to transfer to the NHL so it's the only reason he could be ranked above Abramov and Balcers. Not because of stats, not because of skill, not because of development or track record.

It's a really weak league.. come on. We can be honest here. Sure I understand there are injury issues, that Covid stopped him from playing more NHL games last season.. but those things are similar for a lot of prospects. Fact of the matter is a 23 year old putting up numbers in Norway means absolutely nothing. A 23 year old scoring 3 points in 15 NHL games might mean something.

What expertise do you have on european leagues? I'm european and I know people who played in Europe. I have talked to several players, ex players, scouts, etc. What do you know? Norway is not a weak league at all. It's not a top tier league but you make it sound like it was crap. There's not a lot of easy to find material on the Internet but maybe you should read that :

A look at the pro hockey leagues of Europe, and how they stack up.

And lol at that minuscule 15 games sample size again. With 12 minutes per game on a rebuilding team (who dealt pretty much all veteran talent) and after coming back from injury. Sure, let's ignore context.

Why not look at his 21 y/o season instead? Veleno turns 21 y/o in a few weeks, so this is what Balcers has done at that age (after proving himself at the AHL level) :

Balcers was becoming a NHL regular towards the end of the 2018-19 season. He had 14 pts in 36 games (32 pts pace per 82 games) with just 12:21 TOI/GP. He was mainly playing with Chris Tierney, Magnus Paajarvi, Mikkel Boedker and Bobby Ryan.

Also, Balcers was 22 y/o the last time he played a NA pro game... Try at least to not be dishonest on top of everything lol.

It's not similar at all.. I feel pretty comfortable saying Johansson should be able to match 1 point in 7 games, otherwise I'd be disappointed. And since he's already good defensively against men, he should reasonably be expected to handle junior hockey decently as well. JBD/Johansson is a close comparison, because nothing JBD has done is something that looks difficult for AJ to achieve.

Seider/Sanderson is more similar to if a person rated Lucas Raymond at the draft as high as Elias Pettersson 1 year after the draft. Yes, their status may have been comparable right at the draft, but EP broke all expectations and exploded in his d+1 and continued in his d+2 to show he was arguably the best player of the draft. If your baseline expectation of Sanderson is that, odds are you will be disappointed. He COULD do it, but he could also disappoint greatly. The expectation should be somewhere in the middle, not assuming the high-end of his potential.

lol as if having more than 1 pt in 7 games is the only thing he needs to do to be a better WJC player than Bernard-Docker.

It's funny how easy you make it sound for this comparison, yet a lot of hockey people have been "high" on JBD for a while, I have seen him routinely be ranked in top-75 or 100 NHL prospects lists. Where has Johansson been ranked?

And wait... are you saying that so far, Moritz Seider "exploded" the way that Elias Pettersson did in his D+1 and D+2 seasons?

Seider has surely been developing well, but I don't see why Drysdale and Sanderson wouldn't be able to do the same, they are high end prospects as well. Being an european, Seider was allowed to play in the AHL so he was on bigger scene right away. It won't be the case for Drysdale/Sanderson

Anyway, this conversation is getting nowhere but before calling anybody's logic "dumb", I'd take a long look in the mirror because you have had a LOT of logical failures in this thread. It's not because you can't understand something that you need to revert to cheap shots

 

[Pavels Dog]

So Veleno/Rasmussen are in a similar tier as Norris/Brown/Brannstrom? Everyone has the right to have his opinion but you might be on a very lowly populated island here. I mean, they're not a million miles away but they're also clearly and comfortably below, well according to pretty much everyone and what these guys have done on their development paths.

And you don't need to become a "high-end NHLer" to be a significantly better prospect than someone else.

Also, I suggest you watch Belleville games, or at least highlights to see what Norris/Brown/Brannstrom can do. What makes you think Veleno/Rasmussen are in the same tier? Or even close?

Brännström is a type of d-man that I'm VERY wary of if they can't rather quickly translate their skills to the NHL. So I'm probably lower on him than many others are. So what? It's my opinion. I'll be happy to eat crow if it means Brännström can establish himself as a high-end D for Sweden. I just don't see it.

Brown NHL PPG: 0.31
Rasmussen NHL PPG: 0.29

Brown 1st AHL season PPG: 0.75
Rasmussen 1st AHL season PPG: 0.63

Drafted in a similar spot, both big guys.

So what's the major difference? Brown has had another AHL season, and I'm projecting that if Rasmussen was in the AHL this season he could play at around a PPG. I don't think that's homerism, that's assuming a reasonable improvement.
Why are these two guys not comparable?

And if they are, and Veleno is better than Rasmussen (most people seem to think so), why is Veleno not in the same tier..

Veleno is younger so he still has some development time ahead but he still has to PROVE IT at the pro level. What in his development makes you believe that he will be much better than these guys outside of being "safer"?

Veleno's development trajectory doesn't suggest anything special that he should be way above guys like Balcers and Abramov or even close to guys like Norris and Brannstrom. He's safer to transfer to the NHL so it's the only reason he could be ranked above Abramov and Balcers. Not because of stats, not because of skill, not because of development or track record.

Well, for one; actual experts rated one guy as a 1st round talent and the other two as 3rd and 5th round talents. So right from that point, Balcers/Abramov are the guys that have to prove they are in Veleno's tier. Comparing d+1 and d+2, Veleno is still developing ahead of those two. His trajectory is ahead.

By all means make a poll or something. Or a Balcers for Veleno trade proposal. Which I don't think would get as much productive discussion as a Norris for Veleno proposal. Like it or not, Veleno has some pedigree, and as long as his development isn't a complete trainwreck (it isn't) he will continue to have some of that value.

What expertise do you have on european leagues? I'm european and I know people who played in Europe. I have talked to several players, ex players, scouts, etc. What do you know? Norway is not a weak league at all. It's not a top tier league but you make it sound like it was crap. There's not a lot of easy to find material on the Internet but maybe you should read that :

A look at the pro hockey leagues of Europe, and how they stack up.

And lol at that minuscule 15 games sample size again. With 12 minutes per game on a rebuilding team (who dealt pretty much all veteran talent) and after coming back from injury. Sure, let's ignore context.

Why not look at his 21 y/o season instead? Veleno turns 21 y/o in a few weeks, so this is what Balcers has done at that age (after proving himself at the AHL level) :

Balcers was becoming a NHL regular towards the end of the 2018-19 season. He had 14 pts in 36 games (32 pts pace per 82 games) with just 12:21 TOI/GP. He was mainly playing with Chris Tierney, Magnus Paajarvi, Mikkel Boedker and Bobby Ryan.

I think it's easiest to just say; I disagree. I live in Sweden, I have a pretty decent idea (I think) of the Norwegian league's relative quality compared to SHL. But I could be wrong. It could be a pretty competitive league that translates well to NHL success. Or it could bode well for Balcers at least. I mean it's better than not producing.
As for getting into the nitty-gritty for context; are we doing that for every player? Are you looking at how bad Malmö is when valuing Veleno's production? Rasmussen's icetime and Detroit's talent when looking at his NHL production?

 

[RedWingzz]

I have to note though that Belleville defense has been terrible since their initial season in 2017-18. It has gotten slightly better but still very below average. That is exactly why Joey Daccord is really far from being a "meh" goalie prospect like it has been said in this thread (I think it was another Red Wings fan). He came in and was really great, it's not just a matter of stats. That 0.915% could have been much more on a team with better defense and team structure. The only reason Belleville was so powerful last season is the five 20-21 y/o prospects and Joey Daccord. Belleville is poor like Ottawa, they don't "hire" a lot of good vets. Yet our prospects (that you take their numbers with a grain of salt) DOMINATED the AHL as rookies and sophomores.

Hi again! I'm that Red Wings fan, and Daccord is nothing special. Here's what I find hilarious though. In the above paragraph you basically say "oh well you can't really look at Daccord's stats to justify the player he is." Fair enough.. but then let's take a look at your quote below..

Ok so the FACTS are

- Abramov was better in the Q than Veleno while being younger
- Abramov has been better in the AHL
- Balcers also has a pretty decent/good AHL/NHL track record
- Abramov and Balcers are skilled players

Here you are trying to prove your point by using...yup, stats!! So let me get this straight, you're only using stats that are in favor of your prospects, and when the stats don't favor your guy you simply want to ignore the stats? Come on man...

Also, you are going to be real disappointed when Logan Brown busts. You talk about Logan Brown like he's a surefire NHL player, yet in reality...tick tock, tick tock, tick tock...He's not getting any younger.

And also is Veleno not "proving it at the pro level" right now? He's got 8 points in 14 SHL games (on a bad team)..that's nothing to sneeze at. His zone entries look elite at times, and he is creating things on a regular basis. How much does a player have to "prove it at the pro level" for you to be happy? The guy is playing decent hockey as a 20 year old in the what, 3rd best league in the world? He IS currently proving that he can play pro hockey, not sure what more you want. If the guy isn't at 2 points/per game he's a bust?

As for JBD vs Johansson, in my opinion it's very close, and I really like JBD as a prospect. Johansson is playing extremely well right now. He's just so smooth and steady. He's not gonna be a #1 PP specialist, but I think you may be surprised by his game at the Juniors. The guy can flat out play hockey.

 

[Shaman464]

Hi again! I'm that Red Wings fan, and Daccord is nothing special. Here's what I find hilarious though. In the above paragraph you basically say "oh well you can't really look at Daccord's stats to justify the player he is." Fair enough.. but then let's take a look at your quote below..



Here you are trying to prove your point by using...yup, stats!! So let me get this straight, you're only using stats that are in favor of your prospects, and when the stats don't favor your guy you simply want to ignore the stats? Come on man...

Also, you are going to be real disappointed when Logan Brown busts. You talk about Logan Brown like he's a surefire NHL player, yet in reality...tick tock, tick tock, tick tock...He's not getting any younger.

And also is Veleno not "proving it at the pro level" right now? He's got 8 points in 14 SHL games (on a bad team)..that's nothing to sneeze at. His zone entries look elite at times, and he is creating things on a regular basis. How much does a player have to "prove it at the pro level" for you to be happy? The guy is playing decent hockey as a 20 year old in the what, 3rd best league in the world? He IS currently proving that he can play pro hockey, not sure what more you want. If the guy isn't at 2 points/per game he's a bust?

As for JBD vs Johansson, in my opinion it's very close, and I really like JBD as a prospect. Johansson is playing extremely well right now. He's just so smooth and steady. He's not gonna be a #1 PP specialist, but I think you may be surprised by his game at the Juniors. The guy can flat out play hockey.

Veleno is 91st in ppg, and has the worst +/-in the SHL adjusted for games play. You can calm he's showing it at the pro level, but he's not playing anywhere near good hockey. He's shown he's got tools, but he hasn't shown at the pro level that he can put them together that well.

 

[RedWingzz]

Veleno is 91st in ppg, and has the worst +/-in the SHL adjusted for games play. You can calm he's showing it at the pro level, but he's not playing anywhere near good hockey. He's shown he's got tools, but he hasn't shown at the pro level that he can put them together that well.

Plus minus is such a useless stat to use to prove a point.

 

[newfy]

First of all you need to educate yourself on player development and timeliness.

Not gonna jump into these wall of text arguments but telling people to educate themselves on development timelines and then acting like every single player doesnt develop differently is pretty hilarious. Small kids develop faster, until they dont.

The only time I would give this consideration is for guys who have major growth spurts recently while they adjust to their body

 

[Xspyrit]

Sorry for the late reply, time goes fast

Brännström is a type of d-man that I'm VERY wary of if they can't rather quickly translate their skills to the NHL. So I'm probably lower on him than many others are. So what? It's my opinion. I'll be happy to eat crow if it means Brännström can establish himself as a high-end D for Sweden. I just don't see it.

It's perfectly fine if that's your opinion but what are we arguing then? I could say my opinion is that Sanderson is as good if not better than Seider and is absolutely in the same tier, Would you acknowledge it? Probably not.

Regarding Brannstrom, I'm not sure what you mean by "translate their skills to the NHL". Maybe it depends what people expect out of him? I don't think he's supposed to be a Erik Karlsson. Personally, I see him ending up between a Tobias Enstrom and a Torey Krug level player (the latter is best case scenerio). I know you talked a lot like if he was an older prospect in this thread but I think you don't realize that he turned 20 y/o just before training camp last year. At that age, players usually began their pro careers. He was almost PPG in the AHL and looked pretty decent in the NHL, playing in 31 Games. The points didn't come but he was totally competent defensively and made some pretty impressive plays. He looked particularly better in his 2nd stint in Ottawa, getting more TOI/GP and looking even more comfortable.

Erik Brannstrom

It's ok if you are not high on him but to say Veleno and Rasmussen are in the same tier really doesn't represent what the hockey world thinks, not even close.

Brown NHL PPG: 0.31
Rasmussen NHL PPG: 0.29

Brown 1st AHL season PPG: 0.75
Rasmussen 1st AHL season PPG: 0.63

Drafted in a similar spot, both big guys.

So what's the major difference? Brown has had another AHL season, and I'm projecting that if Rasmussen was in the AHL this season he could play at around a PPG. I don't think that's homerism, that's assuming a reasonable improvement.
Why are these two guys not comparable?

And if they are, and Veleno is better than Rasmussen (most people seem to think so), why is Veleno not in the same tier..

ok so Brown a bit more productive. Difference is that Rasmussen doesn't have anywhere near Brown's puck skills, hockey IQ/vision and playmaking ability. I don't know why he was drafted that high and I don't know why he was rushed in the NHL at 19 y/o. Have you seen Brown play in the AHL? Or at least highlights? This guy is extremely dangerous with a bit of time and space. A Tkachuk-Brown-Dadonov line could be really good.



All that being said, Logan brown is CLEARLY in a tier below Norris, Batherson and Brannstrom for Sens fans (and the hockey world). Even Formenton is starting to be regarded higher (got voted #51 in HF polls while Brown hasn't been voted yet; and NHL top prospects lists in general). And there's several more breathing down his neck (ex : Shane Pinto looks very good right now and will most likely be over PPG in his sophomore college season. It's early but he looks like a Hobey Baker candidate)

Yes Veleno would be much closer to Brown. He doesn't have anywhere near the same offensive ability but he's much safer to be a NHL regular. Rasmussen should be below Veleno and Brown. And they all are way below Norris and Brannstrom. Like I said, you're not going to find a lot of people to follow your statement reach, heck even among Red Wings fans.

Well, for one; actual experts rated one guy as a 1st round talent and the other two as 3rd and 5th round talents. So right from that point, Balcers/Abramov are the guys that have to prove they are in Veleno's tier. Comparing d+1 and d+2, Veleno is still developing ahead of those two. His trajectory is ahead.

By all means make a poll or something. Or a Balcers for Veleno trade proposal. Which I don't think would get as much productive discussion as a Norris for Veleno proposal. Like it or not, Veleno has some pedigree, and as long as his development isn't a complete trainwreck (it isn't) he will continue to have some of that value.

Draft position makes sense on draft day and the day after, but it can only save you for so long. Like I have explained (and it seems you don't listen once again), HF Sens fans don't seem to care much about draft position very long anymore. Lassi Thomson was drafted 19th OA 1 draft ago. He was voted #15 in our pool and he'd be voted even lower now. Tyler Kleven would go ahead for sure.

Abramov and Balcers have been drafted years ago and have outplayed their draft position so far. Veleno has the benefit of the doubt for now (20 months younger than Abramov, 33 months younger than Balcers). That's why Veleno would have more value at the moment. If he doesn't prove to be a better prospect by that period of time (and accomplish at least as much in the NHL/AHL), his value will plummet.

Like I said before, I'd have Veleno above Abramov but the POINT was to tell you where Veleno would be considered in the Sens pool if he was a Sens prospect. It would be right when Balcers and Abramov would also be considered, at #12. Even if Veleno is voted #12, I can't see him being voted above anyone in the Sens top-11

Considering your statement that Veleno is in tier with Norris, Brown and Brannstrom, it means that you think Veleno would be considered at #4, which is delusional. Almost 100% of Sens fans would take guys like Norris, Formenton, Pinto, Brannstrom, JBD, Brown and Jarventie above Joe Veleno. He's just a 30th OA pick that has not developped great yet. Realize there's 8 first round picks and 8 second round picks in the Sens pool actually.

And again, was Veleno D+1 or D+2 really better than Abramov? D+1 was very similar and D+2, Abramov was stuck in the Q because of transfer agreement (another thing you have yet to acknowledge). For Balcers, it's very hard to compare as Balcers was playing in a men's league already. And then D+2, Balcers in the WHL but his numbers don't look that impressive.

But you said it yourself, Abramov was a 3rd round pick and Balcers a 5th round pick. Of course, at the moment of the draft they were not better prospects than Veleno. They have progressed since to outplay their draft position and establish themselves as legit NHL prospects. They are most certainly better hockey players at the moment.

It's basically like comparing Filip Gustavsson to Joey Daccord. The higher pedigree guy taken higher in the draft vs the older guy that was a later round pick. One hasn't progressed much in pro hockey while the other guy has defied all odds and rised as a legit prospect. Veleno vs Balcers/Abramov

But like I said, Veleno still has a bit of time on his side. Let's see where's he's at in 2021-22

I think it's easiest to just say; I disagree. I live in Sweden, I have a pretty decent idea (I think) of the Norwegian league's relative quality compared to SHL. But I could be wrong. It could be a pretty competitive league that translates well to NHL success. Or it could bode well for Balcers at least. I mean it's better than not producing.
As for getting into the nitty-gritty for context; are we doing that for every player? Are you looking at how bad Malmö is when valuing Veleno's production? Rasmussen's icetime and Detroit's talent when looking at his NHL production?

Again, maybe english is your 3rd language (like me) but it seems you have a hard time understanding some stuff. I have clearly said that Norway's league is a tier below Sweden's or Finland's. A beer league is weak, a professional men's league not really... Your comment that it is a "weak league" shows you don't know as much as you'd like to think or just a simple hyperbole (which is something that makes serious conversations kinda hard to have)

I agree that him producing in there is no guarantee that he is back to his 2018-19 level but... it's better than not playing and/or not producing.

Balcers is not playing in Norway to develop, he's there because there is a GLOBAL PANDEMIC and no NA pro hockey at the moment. He is just seeing old friends while staying fit.

As for getting into the nitty-gritty for context; are we doing that for every player? Are you looking at how bad Malmö is when valuing Veleno's production? Rasmussen's icetime and Detroit's talent when looking at his NHL production?

For sure, context ALWAYS matter

 

[Xspyrit]

Hi again! I'm that Red Wings fan, and Daccord is nothing special. Here's what I find hilarious though. In the above paragraph you basically say "oh well you can't really look at Daccord's stats to justify the player he is." Fair enough.. but then let's take a look at your quote below.

Here you are trying to prove your point by using...yup, stats!! So let me get this straight, you're only using stats that are in favor of your prospects, and when the stats don't favor your guy you simply want to ignore the stats? Come on man....

I'm seriously dumbfounded by your comments here. That's very very poor reading comprehension. I don't even know what I could add to make you understand, it's very basic elementary reading comprehension...

Also, if you still don't understand by now that I'm HEAVILY rationally driven (it means I will use as many facts as possible to support my arguments), I don't know what to tell you.

And paraphrasing also does't seem like your forte... I haven't said anything close to that "oh well you can't really look at Daccord's stats to justify the player he is."

Can't you just copy/paste instead? It,s much easier lol. This is what I have said :

"I have to note though that Belleville defense has been terrible since their initial season in 2017-18. It has gotten slightly better but still very below average. That is exactly why Joey Daccord is really far from being a "meh" goalie prospect like it has been said in this thread (I think it was another Red Wings fan). He came in and was really great, it's not just a matter of stats. That 0.915% could have been much more on a team with better defense and team structure. The only reason Belleville was so powerful last season is the five 20-21 y/o prospects and Joey Daccord"

So where did I ignore stats for Daccord? Don't you see the 0.915%? (which is quite good for a rookie goalie). I have just explained the context in Belleville for goalies, which would translate to even better stats on a strong defensive team with better structure. Seriously, Belleville only had a good record because they were scoring like crazy. They were only good because of Batherson, Brown, Norris, Formenton, Balcers, Abramov, Brannstrom and Daccord. The rookies and sophomores. These guys were the difference between being the best team or the worst team in the AHL. The veteran talent has been severely lacking, but it has been part of Ottawa's strategy that it would be the youth driving this team (youngest team in the AHL or very close with another one)

All that being said, have you actually watched Daccord play? I am still waiting to hear on what you base yourself to say the "he is nothing special"...

Also, you are going to be real disappointed when Logan Brown busts. You talk about Logan Brown like he's a surefire NHL player, yet in reality...tick tock, tick tock, tick tock...He's not getting any younger.

ok this conversation is getting really stupid. Do you realize that Logan Brown was 21 years old the last time he played a pro hockey game?

And where did I say "he's a surefire NHL player"?

This is what I told you on this very page when I compared Brown and Veleno

While Veleno is the "safer bet", Logan has much more offensive potential. He will eventually put it all together, maybe not to a Spezza level but a NHL team will benefit having him. 6'6 ultra skilled monsters take a while to develop, it's pretty normal. This guy has too many above average NHL tools to not be a quality NHLer at some point. He'd have to be very lazy and "unwilling" to miss. But I'll give you Veleno

I have to specify, I shouldn't have said "he will eventually put it all together" because if he would, you're talking about a top line center ala Spezza/Getzlaf, which I see as extremely unlikely. What I am saying here is I don't see him not playing in the NHL. Teams will give him plenty of chances, he is way too talented. I don't know how long he'll play or how good he'll be. It's basically between the ears for him, does he have enough fire inside? Because his skill/size package is ridiculous.

You really need to do something for that reading comprehension...

Also, you guys need to stop thinking that because a guy goes up and down the AHL, he is a bust. It's been the same for basically everybody... Batherson, Brannstrom, etc. The Senators are developping their prospects. Thank God they're not thinking that throwing young 20 y/o players to the wolves on a bottom-3 team is the way to do it.

And by the way, I am way past disappointments from following the NHL, this is just an entertainment. I have been to more funerals that you can even imagine. I won't shed a tear if Logan Brown busts lol and the good thing is the Sens have so many good prospects right now that they can afford several to bust. My worry is more with coaching and ownership, as usual.

And also is Veleno not "proving it at the pro level" right now? He's got 8 points in 14 SHL games (on a bad team)..that's nothing to sneeze at. His zone entries look elite at times, and he is creating things on a regular basis. How much does a player have to "prove it at the pro level" for you to be happy? The guy is playing decent hockey as a 20 year old in the what, 3rd best league in the world? He IS currently proving that he can play pro hockey, not sure what more you want. If the guy isn't at 2 points/per game he's a bust?

Ok his zone entries are Elite

By the way, he is going to be 21 y/o in 1 month (so same age as Brown last time he played) "tick tock, tick tock, tick tock...He's not getting any younger"

As for JBD vs Johansson, in my opinion it's very close, and I really like JBD as a prospect. Johansson is playing extremely well right now. He's just so smooth and steady. He's not gonna be a #1 PP specialist, but I think you may be surprised by his game at the Juniors. The guy can flat out play hockey.

Ok your opinion, good. Last WJC, JBD was 6 months younger than AJ will be this year. JBD was the 2nd most important D-man for Canada (best hockey country in the world, and by the way I don't root for Canada in international tournaments). He is the best D-man on the best college team. But he won't stay very long because Sanderson is already a beast (Tyler Kleven looks pretty damn good as well)

I'm not saying AJ can't become better than JBD, but at the moment JBD is easily ahead.

 

[RedWingzz]

I'm seriously dumbfounded by your comments here. That's very very poor reading comprehension. I don't even know what I could add to make you understand, it's very basic elementary reading comprehension...

Also, if you still don't understand by now that I'm HEAVILY rationally driven (it means I will use as many facts as possible to support my arguments), I don't know what to tell you.

And paraphrasing also does't seem like your forte... I haven't said anything close to that "oh well you can't really look at Daccord's stats to justify the player he is."

Can't you just copy/paste instead? It,s much easier lol. This is what I have said :

"I have to note though that Belleville defense has been terrible since their initial season in 2017-18. It has gotten slightly better but still very below average. That is exactly why Joey Daccord is really far from being a "meh" goalie prospect like it has been said in this thread (I think it was another Red Wings fan). He came in and was really great, it's not just a matter of stats. That 0.915% could have been much more on a team with better defense and team structure. The only reason Belleville was so powerful last season is the five 20-21 y/o prospects and Joey Daccord"

So where did I ignore stats for Daccord? Don't you see the 0.915%? (which is quite good for a rookie goalie). I have just explained the context in Belleville for goalies, which would translate to even better stats on a strong defensive team with better structure. Seriously, Belleville only had a good record because they were scoring like crazy. They were only good because of Batherson, Brown, Norris, Formenton, Balcers, Abramov, Brannstrom and Daccord. The rookies and sophomores. These guys were the difference between being the best team or the worst team in the AHL. The veteran talent has been severely lacking, but it has been part of Ottawa's strategy that it would be the youth driving this team (youngest team in the AHL or very close with another one)

All that being said, have you actually watched Daccord play? I am still waiting to hear on what you base yourself to say the "he is nothing special"...



ok this conversation is getting really stupid. Do you realize that Logan Brown was 21 years old the last time he played a pro hockey game?

And where did I say "he's a surefire NHL player"?

This is what I told you on this very page when I compared Brown and Veleno

While Veleno is the "safer bet", Logan has much more offensive potential. He will eventually put it all together, maybe not to a Spezza level but a NHL team will benefit having him. 6'6 ultra skilled monsters take a while to develop, it's pretty normal. This guy has too many above average NHL tools to not be a quality NHLer at some point. He'd have to be very lazy and "unwilling" to miss. But I'll give you Veleno

I have to specify, I shouldn't have said "he will eventually put it all together" because if he would, you're talking about a top line center ala Spezza/Getzlaf, which I see as extremely unlikely. What I am saying here is I don't see him not playing in the NHL. Teams will give him plenty of chances, he is way too talented. I don't know how long he'll play or how good he'll be. It's basically between the ears for him, does he have enough fire inside? Because his skill/size package is ridiculous.

You really need to do something for that reading comprehension...

Also, you guys need to stop thinking that because a guy goes up and down the AHL, he is a bust. It's been the same for basically everybody... Batherson, Brannstrom, etc. The Senators are developping their prospects. Thank God they're not thinking that throwing young 20 y/o players to the wolves on a bottom-3 team is the way to do it.

And by the way, I am way past disappointments from following the NHL, this is just an entertainment. I have been to more funerals that you can even imagine. I won't shed a tear if Logan Brown busts lol and the good thing is the Sens have so many good prospects right now that they can afford several to bust. My worry is more with coaching and ownership, as usual.



Ok his zone entries are Elite

By the way, he is going to be 21 y/o in 1 month (so same age as Brown last time he played) "tick tock, tick tock, tick tock...He's not getting any younger"



Ok your opinion, good. Last WJC, JBD was 6 months younger than AJ will be this year. JBD was the 2nd most important D-man for Canada (best hockey country in the world, and by the way I don't root for Canada in international tournaments). He is the best D-man on the best college team. But he won't stay very long because Sanderson is already a beast (Tyler Kleven looks pretty damn good as well)

I'm not saying AJ can't become better than JBD, but at the moment JBD is easily ahead.

My last comment was like a week ago, I dont care anymore.

 

[Sasso09]

LA and it isnt close.

Best top end and the depth destroys all.

NYR after because of Laf and good depth

Then Ottawa

Detroit doesnt belong in the conversation with the other three for lack of top end.

LA, best top end? Definitely NYR

 

[Pavels Dog]

Regarding Brannstrom, I'm not sure what you mean by "translate their skills to the NHL". Maybe it depends what people expect out of him? I don't think he's supposed to be a Erik Karlsson. Personally, I see him ending up between a Tobias Enstrom and a Torey Krug level player (the latter is best case scenerio). I know you talked a lot like if he was an older prospect in this thread but I think you don't realize that he turned 20 y/o just before training camp last year. At that age, players usually began their pro careers. He was almost PPG in the AHL and looked pretty decent in the NHL, playing in 31 Games. The points didn't come but he was totally competent defensively and made some pretty impressive plays. He looked particularly better in his 2nd stint in Ottawa, getting more TOI/GP and looking even more comfortable.

Erik Brannstrom

It's ok if you are not high on him but to say Veleno and Rasmussen are in the same tier really doesn't represent what the hockey world thinks, not even close.

https://thehockeywriters.com/nhl-top-100-prospects-ranking/
Veleno #17, Brännström/Rasmussen ineligible

NHL prospect rankings: Top 50 players in NHL pipelines for 2019-20
From 2019, Veleno #17, Brännström #21, Rasmussen ineligible

Even if there are likely lists where Brännström is ahead, I don't think you can say he's in a different tier from Veleno. Ras has often been rated a little lower but is also not on many lists due to his NHL games played. Many Wings fans still hold Rasmussen ahead of Veleno.

Considering your statement that Veleno is in tier with Norris, Brown and Brannstrom, it means that you think Veleno would be considered at #4, which is delusional. Almost 100% of Sens fans would take guys like Norris, Formenton, Pinto, Brannstrom, JBD, Brown and Jarventie above Joe Veleno. He's just a 30th OA pick that has not developped great yet. Realize there's 8 first round picks and 8 second round picks in the Sens pool actually.

It's more delusional to say all those Ottawa prospects should 100% be ahead of Veleno. Even if you personally rate Veleno behind them, there is no argument to be made that Veleno can't be compared to them and that some might rank Veleno ahead of at least some of them: That's what saying he's in that tier means; that there's not a big gap and that it depends on what you value in a prospect.
And Wings have something like 7 first and 10 second rounders in their pool. I don't see the point.

7 Wings were selected for Sweden's WJC roster. Raymond, Niederbach, Wallinder, Johansson, Söderblom, Grewe, Berglund. Two of those aren't even in the Wings top 20. Donovan Sebrango might make Canada's WJC roster and isn't in the Wings top 20. Givani Smith is a 2nd round pick who is likely a full-time NHLer next season and isn't in the Wings top 20.
Etc.
Jarventie has had a good start, but so has Viiro (both highest scoring U19 players at their position).
There's depth in Wings pool as well, of course you value your team's depth higher, that's normal.

It's basically like comparing Filip Gustavsson to Joey Daccord. The higher pedigree guy taken higher in the draft vs the older guy that was a later round pick. One hasn't progressed much in pro hockey while the other guy has defied all odds and rised as a legit prospect. Veleno vs Balcers/Abramov

But like I said, Veleno still has a bit of time on his side. Let's see where's he's at in 2021-22

That's an awful, awful comparison.

- Veleno has had much higher pedigree than Gustavsson since age .. 16?
- Gustavsson has had years of pro experience and two miserable stints in AHL, Veleno has 1 year pro experience with a solid performance
- Veleno is currently in SHL doing well, Gustavsson is in a lower tier (indicating regression)

That's just a few major differences.

 

[Xspyrit]

https://thehockeywriters.com/nhl-top-100-prospects-ranking/
Veleno #17, Brännström/Rasmussen ineligible

NHL prospect rankings: Top 50 players in NHL pipelines for 2019-20
From 2019, Veleno #17, Brännström #21, Rasmussen ineligible

Even if there are likely lists where Brännström is ahead, I don't think you can say he's in a different tier from Veleno. Ras has often been rated a little lower but is also not on many lists due to his NHL games played. Many Wings fans still hold Rasmussen ahead of Veleno.

THW has Veleno ahead of Batherson, Broberg, Krebs, Romanov, etc. Impossible to take that list seriously. They also have Caufield ahead of Seider and a few others ... Kaliyev is 14th? lol

That list looks seriously outdated...but shockingly it's from August 29th, 2020. I have no idea why they have Veleno that high lol

In HF polls (even if not perfect, it represents a wider concensus), Veleno is still available for #53 (and frankly won't be voted for a while) while Norris (#36), Brannstrom (#37), Formenton (#51) all have been voted (Batherson would have been voted ahead of all of them but not eligible as per OP criterias). The guys I also named above were voted : Broberg (#16), Romanov (#29), Krebs (#39)

The 2nd link, that list is outdated for real (08/07/2019)

Ok anyway, agree to disagree if you think Veleno and Rasmussen are in the same tier as Norris, Brannstrom and Brown, not sure what I can add to make you change your mind. We'll be able to revisit this thread in the future to see if you were right. I'd give you major kudos because that's certainly a hot take.

Do you think a HF poll could change your mind? Norris/Brannstrom/Brown vs Veleno/Rasmussen? Question could be "are they close as prospects?"

If it's like 90%+ for NBB, will you concede the point lol?

Then we could do Pinto/Formenton/JBD vs Veleno/Rasmussen? By the way, many Sens fans have Pinto and Formenton ahead of Brown now. More and more people are high on them

Anyway, you still haven't answered. Do you see Veleno becoming significantly better than Chris Tierney? At Veleno's actual age (actually 6 months younger), Tierney posted 29 pts in 29 AHL Games and 21 pts in 43 NHL Games. He has been producing at a 44 pts pace per 82 GP for the last 3 NHL seasons while being a responsible 2-way center.

It's more delusional to say all those Ottawa prospects should 100% be ahead of Veleno. Even if you personally rate Veleno behind them, there is no argument to be made that Veleno can't be compared to them and that some might rank Veleno ahead of at least some of them: That's what saying he's in that tier means; that there's not a big gap and that it depends on what you value in a prospect.
And Wings have something like 7 first and 10 second rounders in their pool. I don't see the point.

7 Wings were selected for Sweden's WJC roster. Raymond, Niederbach, Wallinder, Johansson, Söderblom, Grewe, Berglund. Two of those aren't even in the Wings top 20. Donovan Sebrango might make Canada's WJC roster and isn't in the Wings top 20. Givani Smith is a 2nd round pick who is likely a full-time NHLer next season and isn't in the Wings top 20.
Etc.
Jarventie has had a good start, but so has Viiro (both highest scoring U19 players at their position).
There's depth in Wings pool as well, of course you value your team's depth higher, that's normal.

I have been conducting (with another poster) these ranking polls for years, I have a pretty good idea of how people vote and how Sens fans would rank Veleno. He's going to be 21 y/o and hasn't done anything special yet in the pros. Logan Brown is 21 months older and people are starting to get down on him because he hasn't made his mark in the NHL yet (still hasn't played a pro game since he turned 22 y/o). So basically, in only 1 more year of play, Brown has played 29 NHL Games and has 70 pts in 81 AHL Games (23 pts in 54 GP for veleno). I think Brown would be voted #8 or #9 right now behind Formenton and Pinto. It'd be close with JBD. The only reason he is still voted in the top-10 is because of his crazy size/skill package, as he could still put it all together.

Really, I don't see ANY argument for Veleno over those 9 guys, outside that he had "exceptional status" 5 years ago lol

Seriously, it's easy to say Veleno would be in the same tier as these guys but do you have ANY argument for that?

Then you have Roby Jarventie and Ridly Greig who just got drafted and are still pretty young. Jarventie already looks quite impressive in the Liiga as a 18 y/o. People have seen his skillset and potential, I have a hard time seeing Veleno being voted above him now. Greig hasn't had a chance to prove himself. He was going to play in the WJC but he caught covid. He was 28th OA in a pretty damn good draft (like Veleno, a late 1st). It wouldn't be surprising if Greig is farther ahead in 2.5 years yes they are both 2.5 years younger). Like Veleno vs Abramov/Balcers, Greig (and Jarventie) has time on his side to prove himself to be better (which Jarventie has already starting doing)

So that's why I have been saying all along that Veleno wouldn't start being considered before #12. Maybe #11 but after reading a lot of reviews about Greig, I'm not sure.


Finally if the Wings have a better top end and better depht (or similar), how do you explain the poll results? People are biased TOWARDS the Sens? lol that'd be a first I see this in almost 20 internet years.

That's an awful, awful comparison.

- Veleno has had much higher pedigree than Gustavsson since age .. 16?
- Gustavsson has had years of pro experience and two miserable stints in AHL, Veleno has 1 year pro experience with a solid performance
- Veleno is currently in SHL doing well, Gustavsson is in a lower tier (indicating regression)

That's just a few major differences.

Well, maybe you'd have a point... if you actually understood the comparison

I was not comparing Gustavsson and Veleno, where did you get that idea?

I was making a Gustavsson vs Daccord comparison, in regards to a Veleno vs Abramov/Balcers comparison

Younger guys with higher pedigree, drafted much earlier and a lot more "name recognition" vs later round picks that have come a long way and actually proved themselves in the pros.

Like I have said before and that you called "dumb logic", only thing Veleno has on these guys is time (draft status, pedigree, name recognition if YOU still find that important after all that time). If Veleno doesn't prove himself in the near future, he will actually be regarded under what these guys are now.

 

[Xspyrit]

My last comment was like a week ago, I dont care anymore.

Great. I already have a conversation going with Pavels Dog so didn't really want to have two. As you can see it can take me several days to answer. Quite busy for somebody that is not even working at the moment lol

Note that you were the one quoting me from a post where I was quoting someone else. And anyway the conversation was kick started by you misreading my post, so thank you for saving us the time

Also thank you for the previous exchange. Will be fun to bump this eventually to see how Daccord, Logan Brown, Albert Johansson and Veleno are doing.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Holy f***, this page alone is longer than some Dickens novels...

 

[Pavels Dog]

THW has Veleno ahead of Batherson, Broberg, Krebs, Romanov, etc. Impossible to take that list seriously. They also have Caufield ahead of Seider and a few others ... Kaliyev is 14th? lol

That list looks seriously outdated...but shockingly it's from August 29th, 2020. I have no idea why they have Veleno that high lol

In HF polls (even if not perfect, it represents a wider concensus), Veleno is still available for #53 (and frankly won't be voted for a while) while Norris (#36), Brannstrom (#37), Formenton (#51) all have been voted (Batherson would have been voted ahead of all of them but not eligible as per OP criterias). The guys I also named above were voted : Broberg (#16), Romanov (#29), Krebs (#39)

Look, you can't just dismiss any source that disagrees with your notion. Wheeler's list on The Athletic was AWFUL but I'm not going to dismiss that opinion entirely if you want to use it as argument, considering that Brännström was ranked 28th on that list. Of course you then also have to consider that Sanderson was ranked 49th, as the Sens 5th best prospect..

Pronman's mid-season rankings last season had Veleno at #39, just behind Brown (35) and ahead of Pinto (54). Brännström wasn't eligible and Norris was way ahead.

With the point being; rankings vary wildly all over the place. Even from so-called "professionals" who get paid to rank these kids.

Do you think a HF poll could change your mind? Norris/Brannstrom/Brown vs Veleno/Rasmussen? Question could be "are they close as prospects?"

If it's like 90%+ for NBB, will you concede the point lol?

Then we could do Pinto/Formenton/JBD vs Veleno/Rasmussen? By the way, many Sens fans have Pinto and Formenton ahead of Brown now. More and more people are high on them

You often get the answer you are looking for if you ask a question the right way. Should I ask if Raymond/Zadina/Veleno are close to Norris/Brännström?
Brown is clearly the weakest prospect of that Sens trio and the one most easily compared to Veleno/Ras. If one is in a tier with Norris/EB, all 3 are..

Anyway, you still haven't answered. Do you see Veleno becoming significantly better than Chris Tierney? At Veleno's actual age (actually 6 months younger), Tierney posted 29 pts in 29 AHL Games and 21 pts in 43 NHL Games. He has been producing at a 44 pts pace per 82 GP for the last 3 NHL seasons while being a responsible 2-way center.

I think that's a solid target for Veleno but I see him having more upside. Tierney was a ~20 point player his first few seasons, I think Veleno has potential to do a little better a little faster. After that? Who knows? He needs to keep developing but he has all the tools to become a 2nd line center, ~50-60 points. I watch him most games in SHL and see nothing that is cause for grave concern.

Really, I don't see ANY argument for Veleno over those 9 guys, outside that he had "exceptional status" 5 years ago lol

Seriously, it's easy to say Veleno would be in the same tier as these guys but do you have ANY argument for that?

His d+1 was fantastic too and he has been ranked high on many prospect lists, even as recently as during his admittedly disappointing first AHL season.
However for a guy adjusting to pro hockey he hasn't been as bad as you imply. His first 10-12 games were ROUGH, then he played at around 0.5PPG which is solid and was a key player for Canada at WJC.
He's also been pretty good overall in SHL but you are ignoring the context that he's on the worst team in that league (which you gladly compare with numbers for players on the best and highest scoring AHL team).

Finally if the Wings have a better top end and better depth (or similar), how do you explain the poll results?

Top prospect is always hugely influential. Lafreniere/Byfield/Stutzle weigh heavier than Raymond.
When the poll was made, we also hadn't seen Berggren break out like he has, Seider dominating SHL and Albert Johansson outperforming much higher rated D like Björnfot and Broberg. I'm not saying those things should catapult Wings ahead of other teams, but I would disagree with their being a massive difference if you look beyond the #1 prospect.

Pronman had Sens system at 12 and Wings at 13 about a year ago. Wheeler had Sens at 7 and Wings at 9 in the spring. Even accounting for the Sens adding more at the draft than Wings, comparing the two pools is not crazy.

 

[joe dirte]

Holy f***, this page alone is longer than some Dickens novels...

And contains some real gems, like a claim that the norwegian hockey league is really not very weak at all.

 

[Xspyrit]

And contains some real gems, like a claim that the norwegian hockey league is really not very weak at all.

It's either you have no idea what you're talking about or simply that you have no idea what the word "weak" means.

I guess you would say that the SHL is WEAK compared to the NHL? Of course every league is "weak" compared to the NHL. Personally, I find the use of this word not helpful at all in this context but to each their own.

Quality of the Norwegian league has been improving. Like I said, it's not the same tier as euro top leagues but it's not "weak" either.

League Ranking – 2112HockeyAgency.com

A look at the pro hockey leagues of Europe, and how they stack up.

The leagues of Europe and their relative competitiveness: The 2018 rankings

But of course, nobody knows what they're talking about but Joe Dirte and Pavel's dog know. Classic HF