BCHL adding 5 Alberta teams

[Bubbles]

Interesting way to look at it. So, youse think that the BCHL want to weed out the weak franchises and figure out who is serious.

Like Corso said, they're going to have incur much more significant costs if they're going to go it alone. I don't know how much HC gives to teams in Junior A, but it will help the smaller teams. Most of the AJHL teams that did join the BCHL are the bigger teams in the league (with the exception of the Sherwood Park Crusaders).


I wouldn't really consider it "expansion" per se, more of a survival thing. The AJHL is pretty much done as a league now.

 

[Corso]

Interesting way to look at it. So, youse think that the BCHL want to weed out the weak franchises and figure out who is serious.

I believe the BCHL put out a two year time line to move towards a free to play model similar to how the USHL operates. There are probably half a dozen teams that will not be able to afford it, so yes Merritt is but the first to be weeded out.

 

[budaj guy]

Like Corso said, they're going to have incur much more significant costs if they're going to go it alone. I don't know how much HC gives to teams in Junior A, but it will help the smaller teams. Most of the AJHL teams that did join the BCHL are the bigger teams in the league (with the exception of the Sherwood Park Crusaders).


I wouldn't really consider it "expansion" per se, more of a survival thing. The AJHL is pretty much done as a league now.

You really believe the AJ is done as a league? That would be disappointing, as ive always enjoyed Jr. A hockey (well almost any level of hockey actually). Finally live close enough to a team (GP) to watch more games, don’t want that option to end.

 

[Corso]

You really believe the AJ is done as a league? That would be disappointing, as ive always enjoyed Jr. A hockey (well almost any level of hockey actually). Finally live close enough to a team (GP) to watch more games, don’t want that option to end.

I really don't believe that the AJ will cease to exist, but you may have to dampen your expectations as to the quality of play you might expect. You will certainly see less NCAA bound players and a generally lower level of play.

 

[MeHateHe]

No, this is not the end of the AJHL, nor of the other western Junior A leagues. The junior landscape will shift, as it has always done. There remain lots of questions about where things ultimately settle.

In BC, Merritt has reverted back to Hockey Canada-based Junior A, and there were discussions a couple months back that there are other BCHL teams considering the same move.

But a lot of this has been in the works among the top BCHL clubs for years. Penticton, Salmon Arm and others had discussed breaking away to form their own Super League of sorts, away from Merritt and Powell River and others. The owners are competitive too, so most of those guys would want to try to hang around with the big dogs as long as they can. The open question is how many will and for how long? Money will be the deciding factor, and if the league is truly committed to removing player fees, it's going to be the teams that can fill the rink or rely on other revenue sources that can survive in the long run. So clubs like Pentictor and Salmon Arm and Vernon are going to be fine. Prince George, which makes its nut mostly from its show home lottery, will likely be fine financially, although maybe not competitively (given how challening it will be to recruit players). The lower mainland teams excluding Chilliwack will likely get pared down. I don't know how long the island teams can survive - key resource sector employers in Powell River, Alberni Valley and Cowichan Valley have had significant cutbacks.

Interesting that the KIJHL Summerland Steam is moving to Williams Lake, which kind of opens the door geographically if Prince George decides to leave the BCHL. I know that Quesnel had applied to join the KIJHL and had been rejected, but having Williams Lake, 100 Mile, Quesnel and PG would make a decent 4-team northern division.

There will need to be a decision about who's Junior A and who's Junior B. I'm not sure who decides - will they self-select or will BC Hockey impose the decision. With Merritt's move to the KIJHL, there are now 50 Junior A teams under the BC Hockey banner, which is clearly unsustainable.

The five Alberta teams that have joined the BCHL, good luck to them, but how do they compete in a gate-driven league when they're not drawing 1,000 fans? I could see the corporate sector keeping them viable (does Blackfalds have a corporate sector?) but relying on other people's money if you don't have a market to sell those corporate folks is a risky venture.

As I've said before, there are still a few more shoes to drop. The BCHL teams have decisions to make, the BCHL has decisions to make, the AJHL has decisions to make and the two Hockey Canada branches have decisions to make.

 

[Bubbles]

You really believe the AJ is done as a league? That would be disappointing, as ive always enjoyed Jr. A hockey (well almost any level of hockey actually). Finally live close enough to a team (GP) to watch more games, don’t want that option to end.

The AJHL is still there but the talent level of the AJHL is going to take a nose dive. One of Brooks or Spruce Grove won the AJHL in the last 12-13 years. Now they're both in the BCHL.

 

[MeHateHe]

Interesting that the KIJHL Summerland Steam is moving to Williams Lake, which kind of opens the door geographically if Prince George decides to leave the BCHL. I know that Quesnel had applied to join the KIJHL and had been rejected, but having Williams Lake, 100 Mile, Quesnel and PG would make a decent 4-team northern division.

Just to reply to myself, but another shoe dropped today with the move by the North Okanagan Knights to Quesnel.

https://www.kijhl.ca/kijhl-approves-move-to-quesnel

These moves return junior hockey to Quesnel, which hosted a BCHL franchise from 1996 to 2011 and to Williams Lake, which had the Timberwolves from 2002-2010. Quesnel will play in a 1,300 seat arena (which is a huge upgrade to the tiny 650-seat barn they used to have) and Williams Lake will play in a similar-sized arena.

(Really too bad about the Quesnel team name: the old Millionaires is still the coolest name in hockey, and they used to rock a great jersey with a large M that was, in the early 2000s, just a welcome relief from the clip art logos that a lot of teams used.)

None of this means my speculation about Prince George will come true, for the record. But it certainly helps to expand the BC Hockey-sanctioned leagues' footprint to a much larger portion of the province.

 

[WarriorofTime]

The AJHL is still there but the talent level of the AJHL is going to take a nose dive. One of Brooks or Spruce Grove won the AJHL in the last 12-13 years. Now they're both in the BCHL.

AJHL will just become like all the other Canadian Junior A leagues in the Central/East part of the country, rather than the "other" Canadian NCAA producer with a good bit of draft picks here and there.

 

[Isaac Nootin]

Another vague update from both sides (BCHL and BC hockey).

Nice little tidbit at the end regarding change coming in Ontario as well....

https://thejuniorhockeynews.com/bchl-and-bc-hockey-tier-ii-updates-and-expansion/

 

[Bubbles]

Another vague update from both sides (BCHL and BC hockey).

Nice little tidbit at the end regarding change coming in Ontario as well....

https://thejuniorhockeynews.com/bchl-and-bc-hockey-tier-ii-updates-and-expansion/

Thanks for the link! It says "multiple" teams are looking to expand in the BCHL. I wonder who? Some of the bigger teams in the KIJHL?

I mean honestly some of these teams are so small with small population bases that I don't think it's worth it.

 

[Isaac Nootin]

Thanks for the link! It says "multiple" teams are looking to expand in the BCHL. I wonder who? Some of the bigger teams in the KIJHL?

Honestly, not sure. It also says multiple teams are in talks to leave the BCHL as well and rejoin HC.

Expansion fee of 1 million seems excessive. How many teams can afford that? Was there an expansion fee for the 5 joining AJHL teams? Or did the BCHL waive that to get there foot into Alberta?

Many more questions than answers.

 

[MeHateHe]

Honestly, not sure. It also says multiple teams are in talks to leave the BCHL as well and rejoin HC.

Expansion fee of 1 million seems excessive. How many teams can afford that? Was there an expansion fee for the 5 joining AJHL teams? Or did the BCHL waive that to get there foot into Alberta?

Many more questions than answers.

The "multiple applications" thing makes me wonder too about the league's footprint. Of the current KIJHL locations, the only ones that might make sense are maybe Nelson, maybe Revelstoke. Adding Comox and/or Campbell River would help stabilize the Powell River franchise, but neither of those places have big rinks either. And the million-bucks thing would be a pretty big investment, when you're talking about 1,000 fans or less a game.

I'd suspect either another couple AJHL teams and/or maybe go back into Washington (Bellingham? Tacoma?)

The writer is rebroadcasting a bunch of rumours and complaining that no one is being "transparent" about the future. Neither the league nor the BCHL and the three formerly Junior B leagues are going to say a ton until their playoffs are done, surely. BC Hockey's annual congress is in June, so if there is wide-scale restructing, it won't be finalized until then, and I'd guess the BCHL won't have governors' meetings until the playoffs are over either.

So yeah, more shoes to drop yet.

 

[Isaac Nootin]

Any insight on what the author is referring to regarding Ontario?

The GOJHL released a letter weeks ago regarding false information being released, but as they say.... Where there's smoke, there's fire.

Especially with them naming the BCHL specifically in said letter.

 

[Yukon Joe]

Any insight on what the author is referring to regarding Ontario?

The GOJHL released a letter weeks ago regarding false information being released, but as they say.... Where there's smoke, there's fire.

Especially with them naming the BCHL specifically in said letter.

No clues.

These leagues aren't really covered by anyone. I mean media in general has declined, very few media following NHL teams around - but there's NOBODY covering Junior A hockey beyond just reporting the scores.

 

[MeHateHe]

Any insight on what the author is referring to regarding Ontario?

The GOJHL released a letter weeks ago regarding false information being released, but as they say.... Where there's smoke, there's fire.

Especially with them naming the BCHL specifically in said letter.

I'm not in Ontario, so I have no insight there. Just having read what you posted, and a lot of what that author writes, it strikes me he has little love for either the BCHL or Hockey Canada, so it may be that he believes all the bad things he hears might be coming their way. I would take most of what he says with a pinch of salt.

There had been speculation that as many as three BCHL teams were going back to BC Hockey, and Powell River, Prince George and Merritt were the names being floated. Merritt always made no sense in the new incarnation of the BCHL, because their rink is impossibly small. PG and Powell River, meanwhile, have other limitations to keep them from really running with the big dogs - in PG's case, they're competing with the WHL Cougars and Powell River is so far flung so additional travel costs could make them really untenable. On the other hand, Prince George is supported by a wildly successful show home lottery that carries them even when the club doesn't succeed at the gate.

Powell River has said nothing since their season ended and Prince George publicly re-affirmed their commitment to the BCHL this weekend. So... ?

I've been saying this all along, this is not a situation that can be assessed or analyzed year-to-year. The Junior A landscape in five years is going to look a lot different than today. It's driven in part by the profit-desires of some of the clubs and frankly, by the egos of some of the club's owner/governors. T'was ever thus.

 

[Yukon Joe]

I've been saying this all along, this is not a situation that can be assessed or analyzed year-to-year. The Junior A landscape in five years is going to look a lot different than today. It's driven in part by the profit-desires of some of the clubs and frankly, by the egos of some of the club's owner/governors. T'was ever thus.

I think it has very little to do with profits - there isn't much money to be made in Junior A hockey. Rather it's as you said - it's all about egos...

 

[Bubbles]

Honestly, not sure. It also says multiple teams are in talks to leave the BCHL as well and rejoin HC.

Expansion fee of 1 million seems excessive. How many teams can afford that? Was there an expansion fee for the 5 joining AJHL teams? Or did the BCHL waive that to get there foot into Alberta?

Many more questions than answers.

I don't think there was an expansion fee for those AJHL teams. It's not like the NHL, I think it was more of a merger.

I went down a rabbit hole to see if the KIJHL or the VIJHL had attendance to rival those of the BCHL. The top teams were getting 700 or so, which would put them in the cellar of BCHL attendance.

Like someone else said, junior hockey is not really a profitable business. Don't know too many people that can just build a franchise from the ground up. New West still has QPA and they have a history of hockey, maybe a local millionaire could step up.

 

[MeHateHe]

I think it has very little to do with profits - there isn't much money to be made in Junior A hockey. Rather it's as you said - it's all about egos...

That's true in most places, but Penticton, Salmon Arm, Chilliwack, Cranbrook, Vernon and others are drawing very well. I'd find it hard to believe those places aren't bringing in profits.

These are from 2021-22, but they're not far off from numbers I've seen this year.

https://www.hockeydb.com/nhl-attendance/att_graph_season.php?lid=BCHL2001&sid=2022

The other aspect from a long-term perspective is competitiveness. Given that the new BCHL is gate-driven, those teams that draw very well will have an competitive advantage. That compounds the recruiting advantage some of those clubs will have by nature of where they're based: if a kid has a choice between Penticton or Cranbrook or Alberni Valley, it's going to be hard for the smaller clubs to attract talent. This was, of course, true before the league went independent, but with a lot of restrictions on non-BC players taken off, it becomes even more stark.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

(Really too bad about the Quesnel team name: the old Millionaires is still the coolest name in hockey, and they used to rock a great jersey with a large M that was, in the early 2000s, just a welcome relief from the clip art logos that a lot of teams used.)

I actually know why this happened, as I spent a year as the newspaper editor in Quesnel, and even had a chat with an ownership group looking to bring a BCHL team there pre-HC split.

The Millionaires name had the worst local reputation - In the waning years, it sounds like the players were a bit out of control off the ice, and no one is eager to see those memories return.

The new arena is really nice, but BCHL was out of reach for it.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

No clues.

These leagues aren't really covered by anyone. I mean media in general has declined, very few media following NHL teams around - but there's NOBODY covering Junior A hockey beyond just reporting the scores.

You look at a market like Winkler - 20k between them and Morden, but basically no in depth coverage of the team.

98 per cent of the time, I'm the only media member at any game I cover nowadays that isn't employed by one of the teams in some way.

 

[MeHateHe]

98 per cent of the time, I'm the only media member at any game I cover nowadays that isn't employed by one of the teams in some way.

The death of local news leads to the death of local institutions, and the slow demise of community.

 

[WarriorofTime]

The BCHL shouldn't want to get too big. Ideally, you want an entire league of players with a good chance of playing competitive NCAA D1 hockey. Ideally in a way where they jump straight there, and unlike now where so many do a stopgap in the USHL in-between. Part of what makes the USHL competitive is it remains very small. There are 15 teams plus the USNDTP as the 16th team. There are more future NCAA players than USHL spots, with lower teams drawing from Tier 2 leagues.

As far as Ontario, there is definitely a gap with a lot of OHL region kids going down south into the USHL currently. However, are there any Ontario Junior A clubs that are really ready to step up and become premiere NCAA feeders as many BCHL and the best of the AJHL had already been for some time prior to breakaway? Let alone enough of them to feasibly come together and form a breakaway league? You could start pulling the best across multiple regions but a narrow travel schedule compared to Major Junior is a large appeal to this path and helps keep the costs down in what is not really a profitable venture.

 

[Isaac Nootin]

However, are there any Ontario Junior A clubs that are really ready to step up and become premiere NCAA feeders as many BCHL and the best of the AJHL had already been for some time prior to breakaway?

Jr. A hockey in Ontario as it's currently constructed is far too watered down. You'd need to severely contract the size of the league and that's not going to happen.

Still the issue with daddy owners as well, and the pay to play model encourages players to looks elsewhere. Some team fees are insane.

 

[Corso]

That's true in most places, but Penticton, Salmon Arm, Chilliwack, Cranbrook, Vernon and others are drawing very well. I'd find it hard to believe those places aren't bringing in profits.

These are from 2021-22, but they're not far off from numbers I've seen this year.

https://www.hockeydb.com/nhl-attendance/att_graph_season.php?lid=BCHL2001&sid=2022

The other aspect from a long-term perspective is competitiveness. Given that the new BCHL is gate-driven, those teams that draw very well will have an competitive advantage. That compounds the recruiting advantage some of those clubs will have by nature of where they're based: if a kid has a choice between Penticton or Cranbrook or Alberni Valley, it's going to be hard for the smaller clubs to attract talent. This was, of course, true before the league went independent, but with a lot of restrictions on non-BC players taken off, it becomes even more stark.

That is why small market teams will have to be shed as they simply will not be able to compete against the larger programs. Of course the same issues is rearing it's head in college hockey as the imbalance between the larger richer programs and their smaller poorer brethren continues to grow.

Players today are demanding more and more benefits/perks and only the larger markets will be able to survive.

I even wonder about some USHL programs. Take a look at last night's playoff attendance (yes I know, Monday games but playoff attendance is often indicative of a season ticket base)

Apr. 15

Madison

7

Youngstown

4

Covelli Centre

647

Final

Apr. 15

Lincoln

1

Waterloo

0

Young Arena

1448

Final

Apr. 15

Sioux Falls

6

Tri-City

5

Viaero Center

881

Final OT

Apr. 15

Chicago

5

Green Bay

6

Resch Center

641

Final

Those are some terrible numbers and for comparison these are the attendance figures for midweek BCHL playoff games

Apr. 9

West Kelowna

3

Cranbrook

2

Western Financial Place

1167

Final

Apr. 9

Surrey

3

Cowichan Valley

5

Cowichan Community Centre

982

Final

Apr. 9

Salmon Arm

4

Merritt

1

Nicola Valley Memorial Arena

834

Final

Apr. 9

Victoria

3

Nanaimo

5

Frank Crane Arena

1145

Final

Apr. 9

Penticton

3

Prince George

2

Kopar Memorial Arena

776

Final OT2

Apr. 9

Vernon

5

Trail

3

Cominco Arena

1101

Final

Apr. 9

Alberni Valley

5

Coquitlam

3

Poirier Sports and Leisure Centre

885

Final

Very similar to the USHL and that begs the question, can most of these teams in these leagues survive when the top echelon of players that they all are competing for are demanding more and more benefits that will lead to much greater costs?

 

[MeHateHe]

That is why small market teams will have to be shed as they simply will not be able to compete against the larger programs. Of course the same issues is rearing it's head in college hockey as the imbalance between the larger richer programs and their smaller poorer brethren continues to grow.

Yeah, and Penticton will never ever ever compete with the Chicago Steel, which seems to be just head and shoulders above everyone.

You might say that the existence of a super program makes everyone else compete harder, but if, for example, Warren Buffet decided he didn't need a new ivory back scratcher every year and didn't mind losing a few million on a junior hockey team, no one is going to compete with that. Taken to its extremes, if all the best players show up at one or two programs, it threatens to set back development, because you don't necessarily get better beating up on nine terrible teams while playing one other good competitive team.