Lehkonen's return last year - 2nd and a prospect - feels more accurate, and Lehkonen was still RFA at the end of the playoffs and seen as a more sure thing anchoring a line for a Cup contender, Barbashev is UFA, certainly not a top-6 guy and I don't know that he's a guy you drop on your Cup-contending 3rd line and walk away saying yep, I feel really good he's locked down that spot.
What have we learned over the years, though? All it takes is one GM, and that GM usually ends up being someone who talks themselves into being certain the guy is a fit and he ends up bidding against himself at the very end. It's possible someone ends up throwing a 1st for him, but if it happens I think it's highly likely most of HF looks back in the offseason and says wow, that was a bad move, congrats to the Blues for making out on that one.