Award Winners in All-Canadian NHL

[JackSlater]

I originally wrote this out in an email to a friend I discuss sports with, but I will include it here as a thread since I already wrote it out. Below is the email with one exception.

For more than half of NHL history NHL awards were dominated exclusively by Canadian players (Brimsek excluded). The reason is pretty obvious - almost the whole league was Canadian. This began to change in the mid 1980s with Langway winning Norris trophies, and significantly changed by the 1990s when Hart, Art Ross, and Norris trophies went to non-Canadians several times. This is an attempt to look at what a non-international league may look like in terms of awards, mainly to give a sort of rough idea for comparison with the past. I took the Canadian who did best in award voting or highest in scoring and gave them the award. Basically to squint at it and see something sort of similar to NHL awards before the 1980s.

I am not saying that this is how NHL awards would have turned out if the league was only-Canadian. There are several reasons for this. Voters would vote differently in some cases if a big favourite was suddenly not available to vote for, some players may have been less successful without a non-Canadian teammate or two, and most significantly a Canadian only league would look drastically different by 2024 than the actually NHL looks.

Note 1 - I considered any Canadian trained player to be available, regardless of what national team they played for or even their citizenship. This is because the NHL of the past was not explicitly Canadian only, but a player who trained outside of Canada had little realistic change in terms of development. This means that Mikita, Brett Hull, and Quinn Hughes all keep their trophies. Mark Howe does not get the 1984 Norris despite his stint playing for Canada.

Note 2 - I only looked at the Hart, Art Ross, and Norris trophies. The Vezina is too messy historically for me with several decades as the Jennings in disguise and uncertainty that the first all star team winner is equivalent to the modern Vezina winner. I'm not that interested in the Richard when I can look at the Art Ross and Lindsay voting records are not always available.

Hart Trophy

Year	Actual Winner	New Winner
1994	Fedorov	Gilmour
1997	Hasek	Kariya
1998	Hasek	Brodeur
1999	Jagr	Joseph
2003	Forsberg	Brodeur
2008	Ovechkin	Iginla
2009	Ovechkin	Mason
2010	H. Sedin	Crosby
2012	Malkin	Stamkos
2013	Ovechkin	Crosby
2016	Kane	Crosby
2019	Kucherov	Crosby
2020	Draisaitl	MacKinnon
2022	Matthews	McDavid​

A few thoughts:

• Feels like there is no chance those goalie Harts would happen, even though you get the odd weird one like Theodore.
• Brodeur getting two surprises me regardless. Overall it looks sort of like how Rayner and Rollins got Harts over a span of 5 seasons.
• Gilmour, Brodeur 98, Joseph, and Mason were all fourth place finishers in reality. Not shocking that these are some of the most suspect new "winners".
• Crosby is the big winner here. *(added from email but you're welcome daver)

Art Ross Trophy

Year	Actual Winner	New Winner
1995	Jagr	Lindros
1998	Jagr	Gretzky
1999	Jagr	Kariya
2000	Jagr	Recchi
2001	Jagr	Sakic
2003	Forsberg	Thornton
2008	Ovechkin	Iginla
2009	Malkin	Crosby
2010	H. Sedin	Crosby
2011	D. Sedin	St. Louis
2012	Malkin	Stamkos
2016	Kane	Benn
2019	Kucherov	McDavid
2020	Draisaitl	McDavid
2024	Kucherov	MacKinnon

A few thoughts:

• Had a laugh that Gretzky picks up yet "another" Art Ross.
• St. Louis, three time Art Ross "winner".
• Benn laughing historically with his second "win".
• These results feel less wonky than the Hart ones

Norris Trophy

Year	Actual Winner	New Winner
1983	Langway	Bourque
1984	Langway	Coffey
1989	Chelios	Coffey
1992	Leetch	Bourque
1993	Chelios	Bourque
1996	Chelios	Bourque
1997	Leetch	Stevens
2001	Lidstrom	Bourque
2002	Lidstrom	Blake
2003	Lidstrom	MacInnis
2006	Lidstrom	Niedermayer
2007	Lidstrom	Niedermayer
2008	Lidstrom	Phaneuf
2009	Chara	Green
2011	Lidstrom	Weber
2012	Karlsson	Weber
2015	Karlsson	Doughty
2018	Hedman	Doughty
2020	Josi	Pietrangelo
2021	Fox	Makar
2023	Karlsson	Makar

A few thoughts:

• Bourque with 10 Norris trophies is f***ed.
• Media would be all over Niedermayer's knob even more with 3 Norris trophies.
• I was surprised about Stevens in 1997. He was fourth in actual voting.
• Phaneuf and Green back to back. Woof.
• Doughty with three and basically par with Pilote feels right.

I think that how closely this compares to award results for pre-international NHL, in terms of a level playing field, is debatable. Most would agree that awards are generally harder today than at most points in history, and trends also change in terms of how voters vote.

Anyway, thoughts? Surprises? Errors?

Click to read more...

 

[MadLuke]

I think for everything subjective, get really hard with voter fatigue, storyline and what not,

And what Kariya season (and for the Hart the Ducks, winning the Hart without making the playoff is not easy) look like without Selanne.

 

[jigglysquishy]

Daver eating big tonight. Crosby would certainly win in 2009 and 2010. I don't see McDavid losing in 2019 though.


I get giving it to number 2, but I don't see that shaking out in real life. Gretzky got no love in 1994. But if he's 18 points ahead of Francis for second he's going to get Hart votes.

Kariya without Selanne is a big question mark.

Lemieux 1997 would do well. 122 points in a league where no one else hits 100.

Gretzky 1998 would get some love. Only two other Canadians topped 80 points.

 

[daver]

Other than a fun thing to do, the "All Canadian" premise goes way too far down the hypothetical rabbit hole for me to be added as reasonable consideration similar to the in-depth look at the talent pool.

Back in the O6, there was also a lack of players from the Maritimes, so the OP should remove Crosby, MacKinnon and MacInnes from the mix.

 

[Johnny Engine]

You may be surprised to know that 48 of the 168 people born in the 3 maritime provinces listed on hockey reference started their careers before 1970, compared to 779 of 2400 for Ontario (yes, Ontario has produced a round 2400, isn't that odd?), so 29% vs 32%. That includes star players Gordie Drillon (Moncton) and Flash Hollett (North Sydney). Also oddly, the real outlier in this comparison is PEI, who (small sample alert) only sent 4 players to the NHL before 1970, so goodbye to Brad Richards' Smythe and any future Norris attention for Noah Dobson I suppose?

And yes, I've considered that the 2400 Ontarians might be cutting off a bunch of records for database reasons, but a quick scan shows both Newsy Lalonde and current rookies, and both one game obscurities and Wayne Gretzky, so I don't know what would be thrown out. If someone thinks there are records thrown out of that search and can enlighten me, let me know.

 

[WarriorofTime]

The other obvious thing to consider is that if the other guys just didn’t exist more Canadian guys are getting the role and opportunity in terms of ice time to win awards. Of course we assume that it’s going to be significantly easier for McDavid to outscore Hagel compared to Kucherov but it’s also easier to plainly when 60 % of top line roles are just “vacant”. We do see instances all over history of someone apparently random having a big season when the opportunity presented itself.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

No chance in hell Crosby wins in 2019 over McDavid.

In this scenario, McDavid beats him by 16 for the Ross and nothing Crosby did that year is enough to overcome that gap.

2020 is debatable but I take McDavid again. Another Ross, by 4 this time over MacKinnon but you can make the team success argument for MacKinnon

 

[The Panther]

I don't see Coffey winning the Norris in 1989. I guess that would go to MacInnis. 10 for Bourque seens unlikely, as I think voter-fatigue sets in.

As others said, changing up teammates here has a big effect. Lemieux in 1996, 1997 without Jagr or Zubov. Crosby without Malkin McDavid without Draisaitl, etc.

 

[MadLuke]

I think if we want to play the game in the OP, we need to play it with Kariya has the same season he had (and all canadians that played as well), just the competition for trophy magically disappear.

Because, the Jets does not trade Selanne for Tverdovsky and almost all Canadians had some euro drafted above them, our brain rapidly cannot track that parallel universe, in that universe if there was 30 teams with only Canadians, Martin St-Louis was maybe on the first line all his life and has 3 art ross...

 

[Plural]

That's cool. Can you do "no-Canadians" trophy tracker also? Would be fun to see how things shake out in the 80's and early 90's.

 

[JackSlater]

No chance in hell Crosby wins in 2019 over McDavid.

In this scenario, McDavid beats him by 16 for the Ross and nothing Crosby did that year is enough to overcome that gap.

2020 is debatable but I take McDavid again. Another Ross, by 4 this time over MacKinnon but you can make the team success argument for MacKinnon

I agree, I don't think that they would give it to Crosby there for what would be the sixth time in this scenario. I wasn't trying to guess at what would actually happen here, as there are too many branches over too long a period to make proper guesses, just looking at the highest Canadian vote getter, which for much of NHL history was equivalent to the actual trophy winner. As noted the actual voting wouldn't always or perhaps even often shake out the same way in terms of winner.

That's cool. Can you do "no-Canadians" trophy tracker also? Would be fun to see how things shake out in the 80's and early 90's.

I only made this thread because I had already done everything for an email that was part of a larger discussion, but I could do that. The question would be where to start. There are years in the 1980s where Langway finished as high as second for the Hart, but a lot of years after there is little to no support for a non-Canadian in terms of Hart voting. Anyway I can do that at some point.

 

[Yozhik v tumane]

That's cool. Can you do "no-Canadians" trophy tracker also?

An Ulf Sterner divided against himself cannot stand.

 

[Staniowski]

It's interesting that guys like Lindros, Kariya, Sakic, MacKinnon - really great forwards - would still only win one scoring title. Of course injuries are a factor, but it shows how strong these eras are.

As far as the eras competing on similar grounds, it doesn't really do that. There are still massive differences in the quality and depth of talent in different eras even if the are only Canadians (or only Russians, Americans, etc.).

In the end, you still have to compare talent.

 

[Crosby2010]

That's cool. Can you do "no-Canadians" trophy tracker also? Would be fun to see how things shake out in the 80's and early 90's.

Jari Kurri brings home a lot of hardware I would say. Peter Stastny as well. Salming wins as many Norrises as Bobby Orr and Doug Harvey combined.

 

[MadLuke]

It's interesting that guys like Lindros, Kariya, Sakic, MacKinnon - really great forwards - would still only win one scoring title. Of course injuries are a factor, but it shows how strong these eras are.

That not a bad way to look at it, but

Before them, Messier-Yzerman have zero.
Those who faced Espo-Orr, have zero, the Ratelle-Gilbert an co.
Trottier as only one.
Richard as zero.

Marcel Dionne has only and by the margin on an actual hair, Messier-Yzerman-Stastny-Hawerchuck-Savard zero combined, the when Gretzky played was a really hard one to win, biggest example of that could be zero Ross for Bossy when scoring 147 was not enough.

 

[Iron Mike Sharpe]

Jari Kurri brings home a lot of hardware I would say. Peter Stastny as well. Salming wins as many Norrises as Bobby Orr and Doug Harvey combined.

Yeah, but... if you scrub the league of Canadians back then, removing 90% of the players, the composition of the league would be so different that you can't just necessarily assume the guys who were the top non-Canadian players at the time get all the hardware. The league is either back to a scaled-down 6-team league or is completely flooded by Europeans & US college players who are distinctively non-elite. Sure, Stastny, Kurri, Salming may dominate, but it's hard to say who emerges & makes it to the top of the heap. Thinking back to the early 80s before the European influx - does Jiri Crha emerge as a Vezina contender? How about Markus Mattsson or Hardy Astrom? Do the Canucks become champs in 82 by virtue of just having the most NHL-calibre Euros in the lineup? Does Thomas Gradin then become a Hart, Smythe & Selke winner? As Salming declines, do we see offensive-oriented defenders like Pekka Rautikallio & Reijio Ruotsalanien pick up Norrises? Does Langway pick up 2-3 more Norrises? Does Mark Howe drop back to D? Does Reed Larson pick up a Norris or two? Does Anders Hedberg put up WHA-like numbers instead of the mere PPG pace he had with the Rangers? Does Brian Lawton live up to his draft hype? Do guys like Jorgen Pettersson & Jaroslav Pouzar get serious Selke consideration? Do the knocks against Kent Nilsson disappear and we see him pick up a string of Art Ross trophies & go down in history as one of the greatest in the game?

This kind of retro speculation is so open-ended & messy.

 

[Crosby2010]

Yeah, but... if you scrub the league of Canadians back then, removing 90% of the players, the composition of the league would be so different that you can't just necessarily assume the guys who were the top non-Canadian players at the time get all the hardware. The league is either back to a scaled-down 6-team league or is completely flooded by Europeans & US college players who are distinctively non-elite. Sure, Stastny, Kurri, Salming may dominate, but it's hard to say who emerges & makes it to the top of the heap. Thinking back to the early 80s before the European influx - does Jiri Crha emerge as a Vezina contender? How about Markus Mattsson or Hardy Astrom? Do the Canucks become champs in 82 by virtue of just having the most NHL-calibre Euros in the lineup? Does Thomas Gradin then become a Hart, Smythe & Selke winner? As Salming declines, do we see offensive-oriented defenders like Pekka Rautikallio & Reijio Ruotsalanien pick up Norrises? Does Langway pick up 2-3 more Norrises? Does Mark Howe drop back to D? Does Reed Larson pick up a Norris or two? Does Anders Hedberg put up WHA-like numbers instead of the mere PPG pace he had with the Rangers? Does Brian Lawton live up to his draft hype? Do guys like Jorgen Pettersson & Jaroslav Pouzar get serious Selke consideration? Do the knocks against Kent Nilsson disappear and we see him pick up a string of Art Ross trophies & go down in history as one of the greatest in the game?

This kind of retro speculation is so open-ended & messy.

Kurri is still good, he was a heck of a lot more than just Gretzky's sidekick. A Selke candidate and defensive winger who once scored 71 goals is going to be good in any era. And Stastny had the hockey chops from birth. These guys played the game at an elite level in the NHL of the 1980s let alone a league where the best players in the world don't exist anymore. I'd be quite confident Stastny is a regular Art Ross winner.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Yeah, but... if you scrub the league of Canadians back then, removing 90% of the players, the composition of the league would be so different that you can't just necessarily assume the guys who were the top non-Canadian players at the time get all the hardware.

Why wouldn't you though?

If the North American 70 % of the NHL poofed away tomorrow and there were still 32 NHL teams (I guess wherever located). Those amongst the current 30 % that are already amongst the best in the world would certainly be the best players in a league now filled with a lot of KHL and SHL guys [players they grew up with and were better than, hence they usually went higher in the Draft and managed to come over, stick around and ultimately excel in the NHL rather than staying at home].

 

[MadLuke]

There can be a bit, better at high level nhl hockey, but not better at lesser different level hockey that can occur (a bit like how much better Peter was from his brothers in the nhl versus other leagues that could have had an element of that) and how many players that are a bit lesser version of MtStLouis, Art Ross level player wasted on a third line but instead are in a different league.

A bit like Kent Nilsson outscoring people in the nhl he did not in the WHA (maybe there is a better example of this), maybe Goulet-Gartner versus old younger player of that time.

And back then the salary was not automatic that the best non-north american would come, maybe it would have needed to be to attract them, just being more worth it to do so.

 

[Iron Mike Sharpe]

Why wouldn't you though?

If the North American 70 % of the NHL poofed away tomorrow and there were still 32 NHL teams (I guess wherever located). Those amongst the current 30 % that are already amongst the best in the world would certainly be the best players in a league now filled with a lot of KHL and SHL guys [players they grew up with and were better than, hence they usually went higher in the Draft and managed to come over, stick around and ultimately excel in the NHL rather than staying at home].

Kurri is still good, he was a heck of a lot more than just Gretzky's sidekick. A Selke candidate and defensive winger who once scored 71 goals is going to be good in any era. And Stastny had the hockey chops from birth. These guys played the game at an elite level in the NHL of the 1980s let alone a league where the best players in the world don't exist anymore. I'd be quite confident Stastny is a regular Art Ross winner.

There is absolutely no right answer in these retro-speculative fantasy alternate universe barstool jibber-jabber scenarios. Didn't happen, can't know. PERIOD. You can conjecture & bluster until you pass out and fall off the barstool, but if something didn't happen, there is no fictional scenario that is ultimately more reasonable than another, it's pointless banter for entertainment purposes.

Ultimately, I think "what if" discussions need to be banned or at least policed to a degree on the HOH forum, particularly when they creep into arguments in Top Player voting projects, in which we see players like Kurri & Esposito downgraded because "what if Gretzky/Orr didn't exist" arguments are taken as seriously as the players' actual historical accomplishments.

 

[frisco]

All I can say is Steve Mason was screwed out of a Hart Trophy in 2009 with the influx of all these "foreigners" into the league.

My Best-Carey

 

[Crosby2010]

There is absolutely no right answer in these retro-speculative fantasy alternate universe barstool jibber-jabber scenarios. Didn't happen, can't know. PERIOD. You can conjecture & bluster until you pass out and fall off the barstool, but if something didn't happen, there is no fictional scenario that is ultimately more reasonable than another, it's pointless banter for entertainment purposes.

Ultimately, I think "what if" discussions need to be banned or at least policed to a degree on the HOH forum, particularly when they creep into arguments in Top Player voting projects, in which we see players like Kurri & Esposito downgraded because "what if Gretzky/Orr didn't exist" arguments are taken as seriously as the players' actual historical accomplishments.

I wouldn't say banned, because "What if" stuff is fun, but I agree I don't like the whole "Well, Esposito didn't have a Russian or an American star in the league" type of thinking. As if we don't have the dominance of him in the 1972 Summit Series to show you he was the best player in the world (well, forward anyway) regardless.