Value of: Avs Defenseman

[Petes2424]

Toews and Manson aren’t going anywhere. Not when they’re in their cup window. Toews either somehow signs an extension, or he walks next summer as a UFA. You only have so many chances to win Cups. You don’t trade guys like these during your window.

Byrum is interesting but he’s too talented to move with his history. You won’t get what you want for him, and he’s moving towards his prime. If he can keep himself healthy for a couple years, he’s going to be worth quite a bit in years to come. Just not right now.

That leaves Girard… and that long speculation likely comes true this summer. My guess is they can get a prospect or a couple picks for him. Probably a 2nd and a 4th. Something along those lines. Should we be shocked if it’s a straight up 2nd? No. Two 3rds? No… It’s gonna depend on a trade match. If he was RH, they’d get more obviously.

Right now though, just don’t see them getting anything special for him. He’s not hard to play against, and he’s small. The list starts getting smaller and smaller when you start looking for teams where he’d fit.

To me the Jets might be a good fit. Even with Schmidt, they couldn’t generate much at all after Morrissey went down. He doesn’t have the size they’d probably like but they really do need more production and transition from their back end.. Schmidt really is all over the place sometimes.

It does help because Girard can play the right side without much effort. That might open some things up. Columbus maybe, but they’re getting their two puck movers back from injury. The Islanders maybe.

His cap hit for what he provides, will scare some teams off. They should be able to find a taker and still get a 2nd.

 

[PizzaAndPucks]

Byram is good. The injuries are what they are but he literally was injured last year than jumped into the lineup when the playoffs started and played 20 plus minutes a game on the way to winning the cup. The Avs aren't trading him. Toews , Girard , Manson are all good players and better at some parts of the game than Byram but he is still only 22. It's really the injuries that have made some people think he's expandable but the Avs would be crazy to move him. Toews and Manson won't be around forever. Maybe Toews signs an extension but Byram at a cap friendly price is to valuable to move.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Toews and Manson aren’t going anywhere. Not when they’re in their cup window. Toews either somehow signs an extension, or he walks next summer as a UFA. You only have so many chances to win Cups. You don’t trade guys like these during your window.

Byrum is interesting but he’s too talented to move with his history. You won’t get what you want for him, and he’s moving towards his prime. If he can keep himself healthy for a couple years, he’s going to be worth quite a bit in years to come. Just not right now.

That leaves Girard… and that long speculation likely comes true this summer. My guess is they can get a prospect or a couple picks for him. Probably a 2nd and a 4th. Something along those lines. Should we be shocked if it’s a straight up 2nd? No. Two 3rds? No… It’s gonna depend on a trade match. If he was RH, they’d get more obviously.

Right now though, just don’t see them getting anything special for him. He’s not hard to play against, and he’s small. The list starts getting smaller and smaller when you start looking for teams where he’d fit.

To me the Jets might be a good fit. Even with Schmidt, they couldn’t generate much at all after Morrissey went down. He doesn’t have the size they’d probably like but they really do need more production and transition from their back end.. Schmidt really is all over the place sometimes.

It does help because Girard can play the right side without much effort. That might open some things up. Columbus maybe, but they’re getting their two puck movers back from injury. The Islanders maybe.

His cap hit for what he provides, will scare some teams off. They should be able to find a taker and still get a 2nd.

If all they can get for Girard is a 2nd, they won't trade him. They'll move somebody else.

He's a Top 4D signed for 4 or 5 more years at a very team friendly $5M cap hit. The starting point should be a 1st round pick.

 

[McJedi]

You mean next summer but I think the Avs will make every effort to resign him.

No I don’t mean that.

Next summer D Toews be a UFA. This summer is when the Avs trade Toews.

Hopefully to the Flames for Lindholm and Pelletier (a player their last crappy coach hated).

 

[Coffee]

I don't see anyone taking girard at that caphit

I don't see anyone taking girard at that caphit

One more time , Ghost

 

[biturbo19]

I think Colorado probably explore every possible option to unload Girard before they seriously examine anything else.

Toews is a huge part of their team. If they think there's any possible way to clear the room to get him signed to a reasonable extension, that's gotta be their top priority.

Manson was signed to fill a very specific role, bringing particular traits that their blueline was lacking. He's on a solid value contract. Don't see any desire to move him.


Byram is interesting but his injury history makes it tricky to get the sort of "value" that his talent/upside could represent for the Avs or that acquiring team. I'm not sure anyone is going to want to cough up the kind of assets a healthy Byram is worth...when he hasn't proven to be very reliable/durable at all, and especially when it comes to head injuries that can really cut a career short.


So it's basically gotta be Girard. I don't think they're likely to get a lot of value out of a small, soft, puck-moving defenceman. But that's a big chunk of change to potentially free up. If they can move him for either a #2C (who is going to come with warts or contract questions if Girard is the only piece moving)...or even just a cheaper "replacement" + that cap space freed up to make another move for a 2C elsewhere.

That's probably gotta be the play. Assuming they can find a taker. But the reality is...good quality Top-6 Centers are more valuable than small sheltered puck moving defencemen like Girard, so there's probably going to have to be other pieces involved somewhere in the process of reallocating that cap space to where they badly need it.

 

[Freaky Styley]

I think Colorado probably explore every possible option to unload Girard before they seriously examine anything else.

Toews is a huge part of their team. If they think there's any possible way to clear the room to get him signed to a reasonable extension, that's gotta be their top priority.

Manson was signed to fill a very specific role, bringing particular traits that their blueline was lacking. He's on a solid value contract. Don't see any desire to move him.


Byram is interesting but his injury history makes it tricky to get the sort of "value" that his talent/upside could represent for the Avs or that acquiring team. I'm not sure anyone is going to want to cough up the kind of assets a healthy Byram is worth...when he hasn't proven to be very reliable/durable at all, and especially when it comes to head injuries that can really cut a career short.


So it's basically gotta be Girard. I don't think they're likely to get a lot of value out of a small, soft, puck-moving defenceman. But that's a big chunk of change to potentially free up. If they can move him for either a #2C (who is going to come with warts or contract questions if Girard is the only piece moving)...or even just a cheaper "replacement" + that cap space freed up to make another move for a 2C elsewhere.

That's probably gotta be the play. Assuming they can find a taker. But the reality is...good quality Top-6 Centers are more valuable than small sheltered puck moving defencemen like Girard, so there's probably going to have to be other pieces involved somewhere in the process of reallocating that cap space to where they badly need it.

Agree with this. Girard + Newhook + 1st is likely a package that will be floated around for a 2C. We will see if that's good enough for a team like WPG or CAL.

I also think it's wrong to assume Toews will be shopped. Besides his on-ice impact, he's Cales BFF by all accounts and that's important for team chemistry and a top-pair. Invaluable if you can find another way. Pure speculation on my part but it also appears that Toews likes playing in Colorado (who can blame him). He's got a young family and a unique road to the NHL, wouldn't be surprised if he took a little less $$ for security and a good situation. If he extends for 6.5-7M I see the Avs keeping him, for better or worse.

 

[Cypher]

Toews is always hanging out with Makar or Nate at like Nugget games. I'm sure the core are treating him well in hopes he re-signs to a contract that isn't crazy over market value.

 

[majormajor]

If all they can get for Girard is a 2nd, they won't trade him. They'll move somebody else.

Nice try, we all know you'll move Girard for what you can get. You're not going to trade a better D-man and downgrade your whole group like that just because you didn't get a 1st for Girard. 1st or 2nd doesn't really matter to a contender, better D-man vs lesser D-man does.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Nice try, we all know you'll move Girard for what you can get. You're not going to trade a better D-man and downgrade your whole group like that just because you didn't get a 1st for Girard. 1st or 2nd doesn't really matter to a contender, better D-man vs lesser D-man does.

Obviously you dont know anything about Avs management. If they cant get a good deal for Girard, they wont trade him. They dont care about being a contender, they wont make a bad trade for the sake of it.

And with Landeskogs $7M in LTIR space, they dont have to trade a Dman anymore.


Quite frankly I wouldn't be surprised if Girard isn't even remotely available from the Avs. This Avs management group of Sakic/MacFarland have never traded a player with term from the roster, with the only exception to that being Duchene who had made an ugly, public trade request and forced his way out. Since Sakic/MacFarland started working this team they haven't traded a single player signed long term. For better or worse it really shouldn't be a surprise to anyone if Girard isn't even available, the Avs quite like him as a Top 4D and his $5M cap hit from the 2nd pairing is very affordable and locked in for the next 4 years as well.

 

[canuckking1]

Girard is a small defender that can’t really defend and doesn’t put up points with a bunch of term left. Doubt any team takes him on for free

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Girard is a small defender that can’t really defend and doesn’t put up points with a bunch of term left. Doubt any team takes him on for free

Girard can defend just fine. He struggles in front of the net due to his size, but he's got good man to man coverage, doesn't get caught puck watching, and has a good stick that he often uses to break up plays defensively.

As for his production... He gets very little PP opportunity, at even strength he was 31st among Dmen this year, 34th over the last 3 seasons.


And his $5M contract is good value, especially in a league where the likes of Darnell Nurse and Seth Jones are making $9.5M, and guys like Ben Chiarot and Erik Gudbranson just signed for north of $4M. Girards contract is great for the value he brings especially relative to what other UFA Dmen have recently signed for around the league.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

Agree with this. Girard + Newhook + 1st is likely a package that will be floated around for a 2C. We will see if that's good enough for a team like WPG or CAL.

I also think it's wrong to assume Toews will be shopped. Besides his on-ice impact, he's Cales BFF by all accounts and that's important for team chemistry and a top-pair. Invaluable if you can find another way. Pure speculation on my part but it also appears that Toews likes playing in Colorado (who can blame him). He's got a young family and a unique road to the NHL, wouldn't be surprised if he took a little less $$ for security and a good situation. If he extends for 6.5-7M I see the Avs keeping him, for better or worse.

Reasonable offer! Might make more sense to trade Girard separately to another team that has a LHD need and parlay the assets into the deal. Winnipeg is not a good fit for G.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

Girard can defend just fine. He struggles in front of the net due to his size, but he's got good man to man coverage, doesn't get caught puck watching, and has a good stick that he often uses to break up plays defensively.

As for his production... He gets very little PP opportunity, at even strength he was 31st among Dmen this year, 34th over the last 3 seasons.


And his $5M contract is good value, especially in a league where the likes of Darnell Nurse and Seth Jones are making $9.5M, and guys like Ben Chiarot and Erik Gudbranson just signed for north of $4M. Girards contract is great for the value he brings especially relative to what other UFA Dmen have recently signed for around the league.

If we were being objective, there is a very strong case for labeling Girard as being very poor defensively. His WAR is well below average for defenders. What's also eye-opening is his -10 plus/minus on a cup-contending team. There was no regular Avs player close to him that played 70+ games.

To compound matters, he plays scared / soft when faced with aggression - particularly in the playoffs when forecheckers are laying the body.

IMO he doesn't produce enough offense to make up for these deficiencies. But he's an excellent skater and puckmover.

 

[Hasbro]

Towes worth maybe two 2nds....that's where I stopped reading

 

[John Mandalorian]

View attachment 713630
If we were being objective, there is a very strong case for labeling Girard as being very poor defensively. His WAR is well below average for defenders. What's also eye-opening is his -10 plus/minus on a cup-contending team. There was no regular Avs player close to him that played 70+ games.

To compound matters, he plays scared / soft when faced with aggression - particularly in the playoffs when forecheckers are laying the body.

IMO he doesn't produce enough offense to make up for these deficiencies. But he's an excellent skater and puckmover.

That’s likely somewhat skewed by who he was being paired with during the injury death March.

 

[StewieP19]

Well, the Avs don't really have futures.

EDIT: Who'd you have in mind?

Why they don't have future
in defense Girard 25, Makar 24 and Byram 21.
In offence Mackinnon still be good for a 7 years minimum
Rantanen still be good for 8 years.
What are you calling future ? in 10 years ???
The core are all under 27 years old

 

[Ararana]

They should trade Toews given his age and contract status, but it 100% will be Girard.

I'll give them this, moving Girard out has the least impact to their NHL roster.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

That’s likely somewhat skewed by who he was being paired with during the injury death March.

Its a 3-year weighted average. In fact, one might make the case that its skewed by Girard's breakout season 3 years ago (year 1 of the WAR). His last 2 seasons have been very poor. And i think you have to agree with that based on stats and eye test. Its as conclusive as it gets.

 

[John Mandalorian]

Its a 3-year weighted average. In fact, one might make the case that its skewed by Girard's breakout season 3 years ago (year 1 of the WAR). His last 2 seasons have been very poor. And i think you have to agree with that based on stats and eye test. Its as conclusive as it gets.

It’s a little strange to say he’s “soft”. He was injured in the 2022 playoffs by standing in there and being crushed against the glass by Barbashev. The hit was pretty late too.

Honestly, like every NHL player, he should be trying to play in a way to optimize his advantages as a player. So being a part of a lot of heavy collisions doesn’t really work in his favor and for the most part, that’s smart more than it’s soft.