GDT: Avalanche vs Bruins 1/18/24 @ 5:00PM MNT Moose vs Bear who will win?

[henchman21]

If people would just poke around the stats here... it would be pretty clear

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

www.naturalstattrick.com

 

[The Abusement Park]

If people would just poke around the stats here... it would be pretty clear

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

www.naturalstattrick.com

Especially considering Georgie is by far the biggest contributor to those numbers.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I heard the broadcast crew in Toronto game saying Avs give up the most or 2nd most high danger chances, but even those stats aside, we watch the games we can see it. Avs play too carelessly in their zone, give up pucks in dangerous areas and pretty much telling the opposition here, have an easy goal, like Pasta’s goal in this one, or the 2nd goal where they just let the puck go across the crease for an easy goal, and that’s been happening a lot for the Avs

Again, can or should Georgiev maybe stop some of this goals and bailout the team? Yes he should, but maybe since Georgiev is struggling to do that, the team in front of him should start playing better in their own zone and help out Georgiev since he is struggling. I still haven’t seen this team play a full 60 minute solid defensive game. They are winning games by out scoring their problems and Mack being in god mode.

First of all, completely false.


Gerogiev has seen the most High Danger shots.... Because he's played the most minutes of any goalie in the league by a ridiculous amount:

He's literally played the equivalent of almost 3 full games more then the next highest goalie in the league... So of course he's probably faced the most High Danger shots... Although even still that isn't true.

Whether you want to choose Natural Stat Trick or Money Puck:

Where once again, the Avs have played the most games in the NHL. If you factor in games played, the Avs aren't even Top 12 for High Danger shots against on Money Puck. They're only 6th because they have anywhere from 1-5 more games played over every other team in the league.



The team in front of Georgiev is still a Top 10 defensive team in the league.

They have the 10th lowest xGA in the league once again despite playing more games then every other team in the league. Once the games played gets evened up, they'd be flirting with the Top 5.

Same thing with High Danger Chances. They're 13th in the league right now. But once you factor in games played, they're easily Top 10 and closer to 5 then 10.


It is a straight up fact, undeniable quite frankly, that Georgiev has been the problem. The Defense is still playing like one of the best Defenses in the league. The goaltending is simply not playing to anywhere near the standard required.



Quite frankly I question whether you actually do "watch the games" and see it. If you think the problem is the Defense.... And just watching Colorado hockey games does not qualify as watching the games. Because at that point, you aren't comparing what you see from the Avs defense to what other teams do on a nightly basis. Every Defense in the league gives up chances every single night. Literally impossible not to. But the Avs give up fewer then most teams in the league on a very consistent basis.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

First of all, completely false.


Gerogiev has seen the most High Danger shots.... Because he's played the most minutes of any goalie in the league by a ridiculous amount:

View attachment 806212

He's literally played the equivalent of almost 3 full games more then the next highest goalie in the league... So of course he's probably faced the most High Danger shots... Although even still that isn't true.

Whether you want to choose Natural Stat Trick or Money Puck:

View attachment 806213

View attachment 806216


Where once again, the Avs have played the most games in the NHL. If you factor in games played, the Avs aren't even Top 12 for High Danger shots against on Money Puck. They're only 6th because they have anywhere from 1-5 more games played over every other team in the league.



The team in front of Georgiev is still a Top 10 defensive team in the league.

View attachment 806220

They have the 10th lowest xGA in the league once again despite playing more games then every other team in the league. Once the games played gets evened up, they'd be flirting with the Top 5.

View attachment 806223

Same thing with High Danger Chances. They're 13th in the league right now. But once you factor in games played, they're easily Top 10 and closer to 5 then 10.


It is a straight up fact, undeniable quite frankly, that Georgiev has been the problem. The Defense is still playing like one of the best Defenses in the league. The goaltending is simply not playing to anywhere near the standard required.



Quite frankly I question whether you actually do "watch the games" and see it. If you think the problem is the Defense.... And just watching Colorado hockey games does not qualify as watching the games. Because at that point, you aren't comparing what you see from the Avs defense to what other teams do on a nightly basis. Ever Defense in the league gives up chances every single night. Literally impossible not to. But the Avs give up fewer then most teams in the league on a very consistent basis.

Great post. I would also add to this that a good amount of these HD shots are caused by a very bad/dumb giveaway by one of our dmen or FWD. They obviously have some defensive breakdowns (all teams do) but I find that a good amount are self inflected.

 

[the_fan]

Seeing how Georgiev is struggling and not bailing you out, how about making a priority of tightening up defensively and not giving up those easy scoring chances. Just pretend you are in a playoff series with a 3rd string goalie in net and you have to be great defensively to win games. Do that for few games at least and see the results.

Maybe Georgiev only gives up one or two goals and you win games that way and Georgiev builds some confidence, and if that doesn’t help and Georgiev still gives up soft goals from not high danger areas like shots from outside and stuff, then you gotta real issue in your hands and have to replace him and find a new #1 goalie

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Seeing how Georgiev is struggling and not bailing you out, how about making a priority of tightening up defensively and not giving up those easy scoring chances. Just pretend you are in a playoff series with a 3rd string goalie in net and you have to be great defensively to win games. Do that for few games at least and see the results.

Maybe Georgiev only gives up one or two goals and you win games that way and Georgiev builds some confidence, and if that doesn’t help and Georgiev still gives up soft goals from not high danger areas like shots from outside and stuff, then you gotta real issue in your hands and have to replace him and find a new #1 goalie

Ah, so just ignore all the evidence presented right in front of you.


Cool cool cool.

 

[Muffin]

Seeing how Georgiev is struggling and not bailing you out, how about making a priority of tightening up defensively and not giving up those easy scoring chances. Just pretend you are in a playoff series with a 3rd string goalie in net and you have to be great defensively to win games. Do that for few games at least and see the results.

Maybe Georgiev only gives up one or two goals and you win games that way and Georgiev builds some confidence, and if that doesn’t help and Georgiev still gives up soft goals from not high danger areas like shots from outside and stuff, then you gotta real issue in your hands and have to replace him and find a new #1 goalie

Because hockey is a game of mistakes and there's another NHL team out there on the ice. Chances are going to happen.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

Seeing how Georgiev is struggling and not bailing you out, how about making a priority of tightening up defensively and not giving up those easy scoring chances. Just pretend you are in a playoff series with a 3rd string goalie in net and you have to be great defensively to win games. Do that for few games at least and see the results.

Maybe Georgiev only gives up one or two goals and you win games that way and Georgiev builds some confidence, and if that doesn’t help and Georgiev still gives up soft goals from not high danger areas like shots from outside and stuff, then you gotta real issue in your hands and have to replace him and find a new #1 goalie

But we are currently doing just that for the most part. He needs to do better himself.

 

[the_fan]

We all must be watching different teams. Avs often make lazy plays in d zone and give up easy scoring chnaces. Just go watch the way Jets play defensively and compare it to the way Avs play. Hellebuyck is a very good goalie but the team in front of him make it easier for him, it’s the opposite for the Avs. They make it harder for Georgiev or whoever else is in net and it doesn’t help when Georgiev can’t bail you out, but you can’t say that the Avs play good defense for 60 minutes

 

[AllAboutAvs]

We all must be watching different teams. Avs often make lazy plays in d zone and give up easy scoring chnaces. Just go watch the way Jets play defensively and compare it to the way Avs play. Hellebuyck is a very good goalie but the team in front of him make it easier for him, it’s the opposite for the Avs. They make it harder for Georgiev or whoever else is in net and it doesn’t help when Georgiev can’t bail you out, but you can’t say that the Avs play good defense for 60 minutes

Nobody is saying the Avs are playing good defense for 60 mins. It is extremely rare a team will play good defense for 60 mins. All teams have breakdowns during any single game.

 

[the_fan]

Nobody is saying the Avs are playing good defense for 60 mins. It is extremely rare a team will play good defense for 60 mins. All teams have breakdowns during any single game.

There are breakdowns yes, but when you just being lazy, it’s more of self inflicted. We’ve even seen Makar be lazy and turn over pucks right in front of Georgiev few times. That’s not a breakdown that’s just being lazy

 

[AllAboutAvs]

There are breakdowns yes, but when you just being lazy, it’s more of self inflicted. We’ve even seen Makar be lazy and turn over pucks right in front of Georgiev few times. That’s not a breakdown that’s just being lazy

Yes but when guys are playing 28-30 mins you will get laziness/lack of focus at some point. especially when they play 3 games in 4 nights. That is just human nature.

 

[henchman21]

We all must be watching different teams. Avs often make lazy plays in d zone and give up easy scoring chnaces. Just go watch the way Jets play defensively and compare it to the way Avs play. Hellebuyck is a very good goalie but the team in front of him make it easier for him, it’s the opposite for the Avs. They make it harder for Georgiev or whoever else is in net and it doesn’t help when Georgiev can’t bail you out, but you can’t say that the Avs play good defense for 60 minutes

Winnipeg roughly equal with the Avs in the chances and types they give up. We're talking overall they are only supposed to give up .1 less goal per game.

If you watch around the league enough, you'd see the Avs are still very good defensively. I think things get a bit elevated when stats point them to being a top 5 team... but they are certainly a top 10 team. Roughly in the same realm as Winnipeg and Seattle. The Avs are not Florida or Philly level defense by any stretch... but they also aren't Ottawa or Boston either.

 

[Raucherhusten]

Don't get why we don't call him "GE4giev" - really don't. Whoever came up with just "Fourgiev" should be ashamed as hell. Half-ass effort i say.

Fine, i see myself out ...

 

[expatriatedtexan]

So I was checking on Dom's player cards on the Athletic. His model has checked out and gone to lunch.

This is how it views our dmen: Makar > Toews > Jones > Manson > Malinski > Byram > Girard > Johnson.

I've grown accustomed to his market value being both overly ambitious for top players and unrealistically harsh on the lower half of the roster but to consider both Jones and Malinski better than Byram and Girard is absolute lunacy. How?

 

[AnimalMother73]

Yup... if George was having this cadence to his games:

Good Game
Good Game
Bad Game
Good Game
Average Game
Good Game
Bad Game
Great Game
Good Game
Good Game
Bad Game
etc
etc

There would be nearly zero complaints. There are always some, but overall we'd feel okay. Counting backwards I see his games as:

Bad Game
Bad Game
Good Game (I didn't watch the Toronto game, giving benefit of the doubt here)
Great Game
Average Game
(not a start)
Bad Game
Bad Game
Good Game
Great Game
Bad Game
Good Game
Good Game
Bad Game
Good Game
Bad Game
Bad Game

At no point is George giving 3 good games in a row. You might get 3 not bad... but you'll quickly also get 2 bad in a row or 3/4 out 5/6. If he just simply strings together 2-3 good games in a row with only one bad game in between. This chatter would slow way down.

What’s surprising and scary is how consistently average/bad/limited he is this year. Are our high danger chances occurring at a significantly higher rate than last year? It’s our only frame of reference and trying to understand why his play is so different now versus then.

 

[the_fan]

Yes but when guys are playing 28-30 mins you will get laziness/lack of focus at some point. especially when they play 3 games in 4 nights. That is just human nature.

I agree with this and my point is, yes Georgiev hasn’t been good but it’s not all his fault. It’s not like the team in front of him plays perfect and he’s the only reason why they lose games, he’s part of the reason, even if he’s bigger part of the reason, but it’s not all on him. Reading this board makes it seem like everything is on Georgiev. This team has been very good offensively and mediocre defensively this year, but they’re still on top of the standings because most games they’re out scoring their problems, thanks to MVP season MacK is having

 

[henchman21]

What’s surprising and scary is how consistently average/bad/limited he is this year. Are our high danger chances occurring at a significantly higher rate than last year? It’s our only frame of reference and trying to understand why his play is so different now versus then.

Nope... they are pretty similar. George is technically facing LESS HDSA/60 than last year.

The difference is George this year has a .859sv% on Medium Danger Shots and .958 on low danger... last year those numbers were .896 and .965. He's gone from average ish to very bad in MDS.

 

[The Abusement Park]

We all must be watching different teams. Avs often make lazy plays in d zone and give up easy scoring chnaces. Just go watch the way Jets play defensively and compare it to the way Avs play. Hellebuyck is a very good goalie but the team in front of him make it easier for him, it’s the opposite for the Avs. They make it harder for Georgiev or whoever else is in net and it doesn’t help when Georgiev can’t bail you out, but you can’t say that the Avs play good defense for 60 minutes

Watch any other team play. You’ll see very similar breakdowns throughout the game. We give up roughly, 8 high danger chances against per game. Go watch a Sharks game and you’ll see a true lazy and disinterested defense. You‘ll see upwards of 15 HDCA in that game. And the still have a better LDSV% and HDSV% than we do.

 

[Pokecheque]

We all must be watching different teams. Avs often make lazy plays in d zone and give up easy scoring chnaces. Just go watch the way Jets play defensively and compare it to the way Avs play. Hellebuyck is a very good goalie but the team in front of him make it easier for him, it’s the opposite for the Avs. They make it harder for Georgiev or whoever else is in net and it doesn’t help when Georgiev can’t bail you out, but you can’t say that the Avs play good defense for 60 minutes

The Bruins are an elite defensive team IIRC and yet they gave up a few big scoring chances as well. Not a ton, but they did nonetheless.

NO team plays great defense for 60 minutes. Every team has breakdowns. That's what the goalie is for. And as Henchy is pointing out, it ain't even the high-danger ones that are the issue, it's the ones that range between those high-danger opportunities and the obvious routine stops. THOSE are the ones he's letting in

 

[henchman21]

The high danger stuff is really missing the point with George... for one, the Avs numbers are barely different from previous seasons. More importantly though, this is the area that George is actually perfectly fine in. He's not an elite high danger guy, but he's average to good. He's an athletic goalie so this makes sense. His numbers in this area are actually fine. If he was playing at a similar level in MD and LD as he is HD... zero people would be complaining. He'd be getting Vezina hype.

The problem is medium danger. Goals that goalies should be expected to make saves at a 89-90% rate (elite goalies are 91-93 in this area the unacceptable range is around 87-88)... he's making at a 85-86% rate. Those are the issue. They are the soft goals that goalies should be making the saves at a very high rate.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

One graphic I saw during the game last night that surprised me. It showed 3 or 4 teams tied for first with 8 10+-goal scorers and the Avs were next with 7. We also have 3 more scorers at 8 so it looks like depth scoring hasn't been that much of a problem. Obviously the top line and top-4 dmen are being overplayed due to injuries to Lehky, Nuke, Byram, Landy as well and lack of a 2C. Our 2rd line is also being overplayed due to injuries and Ryjo but they have provided secondary scoring when needed.

 

[henchman21]

One graphic I saw during the game last night that surprised me. It showed 3 or 4 teams tied for first with 8 10+-goal scorers and the Avs were next with 7. We also have 3 more scorers at 8 so it looks like depth scoring hasn't been that much of a problem. Obviously the top line and top-4 dmen are being overplayed due to injuries to Lehky, Nuke, Byram, Landy as well and lack of a 2C. Our 2rd line is also being overplayed due to injuries and Ryjo but they have provided secondary scoring when needed.

So close to being the Blues.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

So close to being the Blues.

HaHa yes. My point was more about showing that everybody is doing their part except the goalies.

Do you have George's stats for HDCA, MDCA and LDCA last season when he was having a pretty good season to compare?

 

[henchman21]

HaHa yes. My point was more about showing that everybody is doing their part except the goalies.

Do you have George's stats for HDCA, MDCA and LDCA last season when he was having a pretty good season to compare?

Just visit natural stat trick. Goalies don’t have chances but shots. Teams have chances and shots