Auston Matthews has more goals and a higher gpg than Ovechkin age for age. And the gap is about to grow. Can he also make a run at 894?

[Golden_Jet]

At the end of age 26 season Ovechkin had 339 goals, to Matthews 368.
Next 5 years for Ovechkin were:

2012-2013. Lockout, only 48 games
2013-2014 to 2016-2017. Some of the lowest scoring years in the past ~50 years of NHL.
And then Ovechkin turned 32, back half of his career.

The big advantage Matthews has is the league scoring should be a LOT higher for him next 5 years than it was for Ovechkin, for ages ~27-31. And - he's already ahead in raw goals.

So - he's in excellent position to distance Ovechkin even more in the coming years, or at least keep pace. He can be a worst goal-scorer than Ovechkin was at similar age, yet still have more raw goals.

I don't know how likely 894 is for Matthews - that's still too soon. But 800+ goals seems extremely likely.

Also OV missed his first year in NHL because of the salary cap lockout

Bobby Hull had 318 at end of his age 26 season
However seasons were 70 games long, so in theory he’s missing a whole season.
His following season was 52 more.

 

[Frank Drebin]

I am going to split hairs here but one of Ovies first 8 season was a 48 games schedule due lockout/strike. If you pro rate that season to a full season he adds 20 goals to his total.

First 8 seasons(Matthews is in his 9th now) Ovie scored 371 vs Matthews 368.

Did you also pro rate the covid seasons? Matthews was healthy and producing both years iirc

 

[bobholly39]

Also OV missed his first year in NHL because of the salary cap lockout

Bobby Hull had 318 at end of his age 26 season
However seasons were 70 games long, so in theory he’s missing a whole season.
His following season was 52 more.

Bobby Hulll actually had 264 goals after his age 26 season, and 318 after his age 27 season. So, after age 26, it's 368 Matthews to 264 for Hull.

Hull doesn't hold up as well in this comparison up to age 26, because his first 2 seasons were a bit slow (only 13 and 18 goals), and yes - obviously, 70 games.

For raw goal totals - Matthews is in a much better place than Hull was after age 26.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Bobby Hulll actually had 264 goals after his age 26 season, and 318 after his age 27 season. So, after age 26, it's 368 Matthews to 264 for Hull.

Hull doesn't hold up as well in this comparison up to age 26, because his first 2 seasons were a bit slow (only 13 and 18 goals), and yes - obviously, 70 games.

For raw goal totals - Matthews is in a much better place than Hull was after age 26.

Hull was 26 at start of 65/66 season in October
turned 27 , in January.
So at end of 65/66 season was like I said.
If go to his exact birthday, then around 290.
And a year short of games played like we discussed because of shorter seasons.

 

[Daximus]

Hull was 26 at start of 65/66 season in October
turned 27 , in January.
So at end of 65/66 season was like I said.
If go to his exact birthday, then around 290.
And a year short of games played like we discussed because of shorter seasons.

Yeah that is a bit of a weird distinction. As far as Draft and Rookie cut off eligibility goes the cutoff is September 15th. As far as CHL/AHL eligibility goes the cutoff is January 1st.

Hockey Ref has Hull starting 57/59 as his 19 year old season but as far as any other eligibility would determine, it's technically his 18 year old season. McDavid is in a similar boat as his birthday is 10 days after Hull's. So his rookie year is considered his 19 year old season, even though he began the season at 18.

Edit: Got dates wrong.

 

[bobholly39]

Hull was 26 at start of 65/66 season in October
turned 27 , in January.
So at end of 65/66 season was like I said.
If go to his exact birthday, then around 290.
And a year short of games played like we discussed because of shorter seasons.

Matthews started in his draft +1 year. After 8 seasons, or at the end of the season at which he was age 26, he had 368 goals.

After Hull's first 8 seasons, or at the end of the season at which he was age 26, he had 294 goals.

This isn't a knock on Bobby Hull's ability or greatness. It just shows how much of an edge in raw goals Matthews already has at this age. He's in an excellent position to achieve a very high career number. Much moreso than Hull was after his age 26 season.

 

[Caps8112]

You're very focused on injuries. And you're right - if Matthews health doesn't hold up, all of this conversation is a moot point. We'll see how things develop in coming weeks, months and years, with his wrist or anything else.

But it's kind of boring to focus on injuries. I'd rather consider what he's likely to do assuming decent health. Not 100% perfect health, just decent.

As for how old he's going to play? Again - way too soon to have that conversation. What I like about Matthews is that he started in his draft +1 season very strpmg, super consistent, without missing a beat. Players who start in the NHL early, and are as consistent as he has been from day 1, are the ones who tend to age well/remain consistent into their late 30s. So from an ability standpoint, I think he's the type of player likely to age well. That generally factors in to retirement age - players are more likely to continue playing if they're performing well, then if they slow down drastically.

understand what your saying that given health and consistency Matthews is on track or positioning himself to not have to be as good as Ovi was. What makes it unlikely, is that Matthews is not to the hard part yet. Traditionally what, 90% of NHLers experience some kind of career deficiency pretty much from Matthews current age going forward. What he has done to this point is impressive but his health in his prime years and current status dont bode well for him duplicating what Ovi has done.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Yeah that is a bit of a weird distinction. As far as Draft and Rookie cut off eligibility goes the cutoff is September 15th. As far as CHL/AHL eligibility goes the cutoff is January 1st.

Hockey Ref has Hull starting 58/59 as his 19 year old season but as far as any other eligibility would determine, it's technically his 18 year old season. McDavid is in a similar boat as his birthday is 10 days after Hull's. So his rookie year is considered his 19 year old season, even though he began the season at 18.

So we don’t count his 57/58 season?

 

[Daximus]

So we don’t count his 57/58 season?

Opps my bad, typo on my part replace 58/59 with 57/58 in my post. Rest remains the same.

 

[Daximus]

understand what your saying that given health and consistency Matthews is on track or positioning himself to not have to be as good as Ovi was. What makes it unlikely, is that Matthews is not to the hard part yet. Traditionally what, 90% of NHLers experience some kind of career deficiency pretty much from Matthews current age going forward. What he has done to this point is impressive but his health in his prime years and current status dont bode well for him duplicating what Ovi has done.

Yeah Ovi has been remarkably healthy post age 30. Good chance without the lockouts he'd be pushing into the top 15 in all times games played. I just have a hard time seeing Matthews be as healthy and having as much longevity.

Anything is possible but if I had to put money down right now I'd bet against him hitting 800.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Matthews started in his draft +1 year. After 8 seasons, or at the end of the season at which he was age 26, he had 368 goals.

After Hull's first 8 seasons, or at the end of the season at which he was age 26, he had 294 goals.

This isn't a knock on Bobby Hull's ability or greatness. It just shows how much of an edge in raw goals Matthews already has at this age. He's in an excellent position to achieve a very high career number. Much moreso than Hull was after his age 26 season.

Now you got it, and we agree.
But we also agree he misses out on a full season, being 70 games seasons then.

And in a slightly worse goals per season average when he played.

Also OV started at 20 vs Matthew’s starting at 19, due to a season long lockout.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Yeah that is a bit of a weird distinction. As far as Draft and Rookie cut off eligibility goes the cutoff is September 15th. As far as CHL/AHL eligibility goes the cutoff is January 1st.

Hockey Ref has Hull starting 57/59 as his 19 year old season but as far as any other eligibility would determine, it's technically his 18 year old season. McDavid is in a similar boat as his birthday is 10 days after Hull's. So his rookie year is considered his 19 year old season, even though he began the season at 18.

Edit: Got dates wrong.

Hockey Ref does age as of January 31st of the season. It's adopted from what they did for Baseball Reference which lists age as of June 30th of the season for purposes of a universal cutoff based on where a player is at the halfway mark over the course of a long season where players will celebrate birthdays during it. Of course that cutoff isn't used for any other purpose because once players are in the NHL the age cutoffs don't exist Ii.e. whether you're 25 or 26 in a given year is irrelevant).

 

[Daximus]

Hockey Ref does age as of January 31st of the season. It's adopted from what they did for Baseball Reference which lists age as of June 30th of the season for purposes of a universal cutoff based on where a player is at the halfway mark over the course of a long season where players will celebrate birthdays during it. Of course that cutoff isn't used for any other purpose because once players are in the NHL the age cutoffs don't exist Ii.e. whether you're 25 or 26 in a given year is irrelevant).

Yeah only time it really becomes relevant is in a discussion about what a player does up to an exact certain age. Otherwise just use the season age number really.

 

[bobholly39]

Now you got it, and we agree.
But we also agree he misses out on a full season, being 70 games seasons then.

And in a slightly worse goals per season average when he played.

Also OV started at 20 vs Matthew’s starting at 19, due to a season long lockout.

If you want to talk about who is the greater goal-scorer, or who was more impressive, or who is having the greater career, then all of these adjustements matter. 70 games vs 82, Ov missing lockout season, covid seasons, etc.

But if all we're talking about is raw goal totals (which is certainly what I'm talking about here), none of that really matters.

70 games for Hull vs 82 for Matthews? Too bad for Hull and advantage Matthews
lockout year OV missed age 19? Too bad for Ovechkin, and advantage Matthews
High scoring league today for Matthews vs lower scoring league for Hull/OV similar age? Too bad for OV/Hull, advantage Matthews.

That's kind of my point though. Matthews has done great so far in terms of raw goal output up to age 26, and he has a lot of advantages going for him, to put him in an excellent spot to hit 800+ career goals, and maybe more.

Will Auston Matthews end up having a greater goal-scoring career than either Hull or OV? I dunno, but that's a higher bar.

 

[Crosby2010]

With this mystery injury, I'll say what I said before, he doesn't have a shot at it. He is too fragile out there. Gretzky and Ovechkin both not only were outpacing him at this point but they also had the blessing of durability in their careers that led them to 800+ goals. Howe too obviously. There is a reason Eric Lindros isn't high on any career stats list. It is because if he sneezed the wrong way he got hurt. Matthews can't stay healthy for a full season.

 

[bobholly39]

With this mystery injury, I'll say what I said before, he doesn't have a shot at it. He is too fragile out there. Gretzky and Ovechkin both not only were outpacing him at this point but they also had the blessing of durability in their careers that led them to 800+ goals. Howe too obviously. There is a reason Eric Lindros isn't high on any career stats list. It is because if he sneezed the wrong way he got hurt. Matthews can't stay healthy for a full season.

Gretzky was definitely outpacing him, but he also "fell off a cliff" in regards to goal-scoring in the second half of his career. He has such a unique career arc, I don't think he's a good comparable.

Ovechkin is not outpacing Matthews - Matthews is actually ahead.

After their age 26 seasons (born on the same day, so it's easy to compare), it was:

Ovechkin 339 goals in 553 games
Matthews 368 goals in 562 games

In his age 27 season - Ovechkin only scored 32 goals total (it was lockout, 48 game year). So - even with his slow start this season, if Matthews scores over 32 goals he's increasing the gap. If he scores 53 goals? He'd be exactly 50 goals ahead of Ovechkin age for age.

 

[Daximus]

With this mystery injury, I'll say what I said before, he doesn't have a shot at it. He is too fragile out there. Gretzky and Ovechkin both not only were outpacing him at this point but they also had the blessing of durability in their careers that led them to 800+ goals. Howe too obviously. There is a reason Eric Lindros isn't high on any career stats list. It is because if he sneezed the wrong way he got hurt. Matthews can't stay healthy for a full season.

He's outpacing Ovi already but what his injury is and how it affects him going forwards is going to be a big factor for his ability to get there. Especially later in his career. If this is a nagging injury already that he has to see a specialist for on another continent its not looking good.

 

[The Panther]

I tend to agree with @Crosby2010 that Matthews is slowly starting to remove himself from any chance at 890-or-whatever goals. Basically no athlete playing now is going to age the way Ovechkin (a once-every-two-or-three-generations-freak-of-nature) does, so you've got to make hay when the sun shines. That means you've got to stay healthy when young and in your prime, or you're never going to catch up to those all-time totals.

Matthews may be outpacing Ovechkin by a certain respective age, but when Ovechkin was Matthews' current age he had missed a grand total of 21 games. That means maybe he left 12-or-something goals on the table. (And after that, it would be about seven years before Ovechkin missed any more games.)

Matthews right now has missed 64 games (and counting... daily). That means he has left maybe 40 goals on the table. Matthews at this stage is in his ninth season, and for the past eight seasons in a row he hasn't managed to play all 82 games.

I guess 40 goals doesn't seem like much, but if he missed 18 more games this season or the next couple, then it's 50 goals left on the table. Then, as you age, you get injured more. I dunno, there's going to be the very occasional freak of nature like Ovi who can buck the trend, but it's damn rare.

 

[CokenoPepsi]

I don't think Matthews hits 700 personally.

Don't see him aging well