Auston Matthews Discussion Thread

[Stephen]

Playoffs are a small sample by design, and the size of the sample in any particular playoffs is a result of your team (and the opposing team) as a whole. The situations that players experience in the playoffs also differ greatly across teams and years, making direct production comparisons without context highly problematic.

You're actually encountering a two fold problem. The first one is a statistical comparison across playoff years isn't necessary. No one really benchmarks playoff performers by describing them as reliable "30 point post season scorers" across an entire run or by saying "this guy is good for 5 goals in a series" the way you might hear someone be described in the regular season. The real benchmark is series wins and any means to get there, whether it's a 4x game sweep consisting of 1-0 shutouts or 6-5 track races in a 7 game series.

Secondly, the Leafs playoff history hasn't really been flattering, so of course things will look 'problematic." But the problem is really the numbers look unfavorable.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The first one is a statistical comparison across playoff years isn't necessary.

And yet that's what was being done.

The real benchmark is series wins

That's a team benchmark, and also not particularly descriptive of what happened.

Secondly, the Leafs playoff history hasn't really been flattering, so of course things will look 'problematic."

The "problematic" was referencing small sample playoff production comparisons across teams or years without context.

 

[IPS]

Getting kneed in the head once =/= getting repeatedly suspended.

The many problems with evaluating a player's contribution and value exclusively by small sample playoff production with zero context aside, this is an especially weird argument considering that over each of their last 12 playoff games, Bozak has half of the points Tavares does.

You come up with some bad half-baked excuses for why Leafs players underperform in the postseason and try to disguise anyone not agreeing with it as "not using proper context" (like a broken record).

Try adding something meaningful or interesting to the conversation.

 

[zeke]

You come up with some bad half-baked excuses for why Leafs players underperform in the postseason and try to disguise anyone not agreeing with it as "not using proper context" (like a broken record).

Try adding something meaningful or interesting to the conversation.

Something meaningful like "they suck in the playoffs trade them now!" ?

 

[Dekes For Days]

You come up with some bad half-baked excuses for why Leafs players underperform in the postseason and try to disguise anyone not agreeing with it as "not using proper context" (like a broken record). Try adding something meaningful or interesting to the conversation.

I did bring something meaningful and interesting to the conversation. Personally, I don't see anything particularly meaningful or interesting about ignoring important information about the thing being discussed in order to conclude that all of our players just suck in every way and always will, but maybe that's just me.

 

[IPS]

that all of our players just suck in every way and always will

Who's saying this exactly?

Discussing our core player's flaws =/= our players suck and always will. Some of us on here have no problem discussing things objectively even if it means taking off the blue and white glasses for a bit.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Who's saying this exactly?

Discussing our core player's flaws =/= our players suck and always will. Some of us on here have no problem discussing things objectively even if it means taking off the blue and white glasses for a bit.

It hasn't happened yet. I am looking forward to that!

 

[Dekes For Days]

Some of us on here have no problem discussing things objectively

And as one of those people, I utilize all of the facts and relevant information in my objective discussions.

 

[Racer88]

It’s a very simple divide. Some posters are stats oriented and some posters are results oriented.
I think by and large both sides bring some valid points to the debate and I’m sure success is somewhere in the middle, we just haven’t seen it yet.
The stats group seem to think that because of the underlying stats they can’t lose and fail forever and that bad luck has dogged them for the years
The results/eye test side (my side) feel that it will not happen with the way this group is constructed and especially with Marner.
I personally feel that 5 years has been long enough for players like Marner and Matthews to “learn “ how to bring it in the playoffs
Only time will ever settle this debate

 

[Mugzy97]

Happy Birthday to Auston, only 24 today. Maybe hasn't even entered his prime yet?

Just a reminder to Leafs fans that this guy will be a future TML legend as long as he signs another contract in Toronto. Enjoy it while it lasts.

 

[zeke]

It’s a very simple divide. Some posters are stats oriented and some posters are results oriented.

Stats are results.

A true "eye test" person shouldn't even care about results, but only their eye test.

 

[Gabriel426]

Stats are results.

A true "eye test" person shouldn't even care about results, but only their eye test.

Dude, he is handing out an olive branch, just take it.
Also, Stats indicated the Leafs failed to advance past the 1st rounds over the last 5 years.

 

[ACC1224]

Happy Birthday to Auston, only 24 today. Maybe hasn't even entered his prime yet?

Just a reminder to Leafs fans that this guy will be a future TML legend as long as he signs another contract in Toronto. Enjoy it while it lasts.

24 already? It seems like yesterday that he was that wild kid mooning security guards.

 

[ACC1224]

It’s a very simple divide. Some posters are stats oriented and some posters are results oriented.
I think by and large both sides bring some valid points to the debate and I’m sure success is somewhere in the middle, we just haven’t seen it yet.
The stats group seem to think that because of the underlying stats they can’t lose and fail forever and that bad luck has dogged them for the years
The results/eye test side (my side) feel that it will not happen with the way this group is constructed and especially with Marner.
I personally feel that 5 years has been long enough for players like Marner and Matthews to “learn “ how to bring it in the playoffs
Only time will ever settle this debate

Not really.
Some think the stats are the important result while others think actual results are what matter.

 

[Gabriel426]

24 already? It seems like yesterday that he was that wild kid mooning security guards.

My buddies and I still do that to women in security guard uniforms even though we are 40s, lol.

 

[Racer88]

Stats are results.

A true "eye test" person shouldn't even care about results, but only their eye test.

Agreed that results are stats, in fact the most important stat but it gets overlooked here way to often.
It gets tougher each year to hear that we dominated the opposition according to a bunch of stats and expected this and expected that yet again each year we lose. In fact we are now hearing that is just plain luck and facing good goalies
The other teams that we supposedly dominate are simply luckier or have better goal tending always beat us. Begs the question as to why we don’t have a goalie that can win for us when the other team dominates us. I know it’s a simplistic question but those supposedly weaker teams got those great goalies. Why don’t the Leafs have one………..those other teams found them.
When was the last time the Leafs had a truly great goalie?

 

[Pookie]

24 already? It seems like yesterday that he was that wild kid mooning security guards.

My buddies and I still do that to women in security guard uniforms even though we are 40s, lol.

pretty sure you don’t try to break into their cars while they are screaming inside do you?

 

[Zybalto]

Agreed that results are stats, in fact the most important stat but it gets overlooked here way to often.
It gets tougher each year to hear that we dominated the opposition according to a bunch of stats and expected this and expected that yet again each year we lose. In fact we are now hearing that is just plain luck and facing good goalies
The other teams that we supposedly dominate are simply luckier or have better goal tending always beat us. Begs the question as to why we don’t have a goalie that can win for us when the other team dominates us. I know it’s a simplistic question but those supposedly weaker teams got those great goalies. Why don’t the Leafs have one………..those other teams found them.
When was the last time the Leafs had a truly great goalie?

Probably Belfour?

Andersen was a great regular-season goalie but couldn't put it together in big games in the playoffs. Even looking at final 3 games of this last playoff, the Leafs outshot the Habs 109-83 and badly out-chanced them even worse but Price rocks a .945 save% and Campbell an .892. The problem hasnt been so much us not having a goalie that can make the save when a team is dominating us but one that can make a save when we are dominating them.....although sometimes its hard to give Campbell too rough a ride when Galchenyuk and Dermott are giving away free pizzas to give away two of the 3 games. A clear 2 on 0 in overtime from the blueline? We may never see that epic a giveaway again.

 

[koyvoo]

Probably Belfour?

Andersen was a great regular-season goalie but couldn't put it together in big games in the playoffs. Even looking at final 3 games of this last playoff, the Leafs outshot the Habs 109-83 and badly out-chanced them even worse but Price rocks a .945 save% and Campbell an .892. The problem hasnt been so much us not having a goalie that can make the save when a team is dominating us but one that can make a save when we are dominating them.....although sometimes its hard to give Campbell too rough a ride when Galchenyuk and Dermott are giving away free pizzas to give away two of the 3 games. A clear 2 on 0 in overtime from the blueline? We may never see that epic a giveaway again.

This is not a false narrative on Andersen, but it’s overlooked far too often that even a prime Hasek would have a tough time getting the W in those big/elimination type games with the type of offensive support our supposed superstars have provided. Unless Andersen himself not only had the task off closing the door, bit also providing the offender himself.

He’s let us down and failed to down we’ve needed him most but each one of our star skaters has also failed to produce to their standards and abilities when the games matter too. For whatever reason, it’s much easier for everyone to call out the goalie and give the other spineless performance a pass.

 

[Gabriel426]

pretty sure you don’t try to break into their cars while they are screaming inside do you?

Pookie, women in security guard uniform doesn’t mean they are security guard, lol.
Pretty sure you know what I mean by now, lol.

 

[Zybalto]

This is not a false narrative on Andersen, but it’s overlooked far too often that even a prime Hasek would have a tough time getting the W in those big/elimination type games with the type of offensive support our supposed superstars have provided. Unless Andersen himself not only had the task off closing the door, bit also providing the offender himself.

He’s let us down and failed to down we’ve needed him most but each one of our star skaters has also failed to produce to their standards and abilities when the games matter too. For whatever reason, it’s much easier for everyone to call out the goalie and give the other spineless performance a pass.

If we had prime Hasek, we may have a couple of cups.

Just gotta look at Tampa again. How did they do in series-deciding games this championship year?

Against the Panthers: Won 4-0
Against the Hurricanes:Won 2-0
Against the Isles: Lost 3-2
Against the Isles: Won 1-0
Against the Habs: Won 1-0

Tampa outshoots their opposition 134-125

These games wernt won and lost with their star skaters.

Total Goals scored: 10 Goals allowed: 3
Kucherov/Point/Stamkos combined for 8 points in 5 games but held scoreless in 2.

Points/game in series clinching games for the "lights out clutch" Tampa stars:
Point: 0.8
Kucherov: 0.6
Stamkos: 0.2

Opposition Goaltending: .866%
Tampa Goaltending: .958%


Here are the Leafs last 5 playoff series-deciding games over the 2 years:

Against the Jackets: Win 4-3 (OT)
Against the Jackets: Lost 3-0
Against the Habs: Lost 4-3 (OT)
Against the Habs: Lost 3-2 (OT)
Against the Habs: Lost 3-1

Toronto outshoots their opposition 175-132

Total Goals scored: 10 Goals allowed: 16
Matthews/Nylander/Marner combined for 14 points in 5 games but held scoreless in 2.

Points/game in series clinching games for the "gutless loser completely their fault" Leafs stars:
"Spineless" Matthews: 1.0 (PPG)
"Soft" Nylander: 1.0 (PPG)
The worst playoff performer ever "Money" Marner: 4 points in 5 games (0.8! obviously the reason they lost...not even PPG!)
(Tavares was also PPG with 2 in 2)

Opposition Goaltending: .943%
Leafs Goaltending: .879%


In all seriousness, injuries, goaltending and depth players are FAR more responsible for our woes.

Just sayin....

 

[koyvoo]

If we had prime Hasek, we may have a couple of cups.

Just gotta look at Tampa again. How did they do in series-deciding games this championship year?

Against the Panthers: Won 4-0
Against the Hurricanes:Won 2-0
Against the Isles: Lost 3-2
Against the Isles: Won 1-0
Against the Habs: Won 1-0

Tampa outshoots their opposition 134-125

These games wernt won and lost with their star skaters.

Total Goals scored: 10 Goals allowed: 3
Kucherov/Point/Stamkos combined for 8 points in 5 games but held scoreless in 2.

Points/game in series clinching games for the "lights out clutch" Tampa stars:
Point: 0.8
Kucherov: 0.6
Stamkos: 0.2

Opposition Goaltending: .866%
Tampa Goaltending: .958%


Here are the Leafs last 5 playoff series-deciding games over the 2 years:

Against the Jackets: Win 4-3 (OT)
Against the Jackets: Lost 3-0
Against the Habs: Lost 4-3 (OT)
Against the Habs: Lost 3-2 (OT)
Against the Habs: Lost 3-1

Toronto outshoots their opposition 175-132

Total Goals scored: 10 Goals allowed: 16
Matthews/Nylander/Marner combined for 14 points in 5 games but held scoreless in 2.

Points/game in series clinching games for the "gutless loser completely their fault" Leafs stars:
"Spineless" Matthews: 1.0 (PPG)
"Soft" Nylander: 1.0 (PPG)
The worst playoff performer ever "Money" Marner: 4 points in 5 games (0.8! obviously the reason they lost...not even PPG!)
(Tavares was also PPG with 2 in 2)

Opposition Goaltending: .943%
Leafs Goaltending: .879%


In all seriousness, injuries, goaltending and depth players are FAR more responsible for our woes.

Just sayin....

Who said it was only their fault? I said they don’t get their share of blame for not playing to their standards and abilities in those situations, just the same as the goalie.

You wanna watch, if you can stomach it, the effort level of the Tampa players in the games you’re referring to, and then impacted them to the effort levels our clowns put in for the back half of the Montreal series.

Have you forgotten or deluded yourself about how lifelong they were for all of game 7, at home, after blowing a 3-1 series lead? Five minutes into that game, it was clear it was over. They looked like it was an exhibition game. That is indeed undeniably spinessness.

But while that was going on, Campbell let in the softie. We were never going to win that game with what our goalie or our skaters were giving us, but it’s so much more comfortable to not put the blame,, or admit that the golden boys we want so badly to deliver for us just won’t.

Lol. The Tampa stars, after being embarrassed by Columbus two years ago, play in the post season as though their mother lives are on the line. Go watch game 7 again. We were losing 3/4 of the foot races to loose pucks and pucks behind the refine to a slower and less talented team. Gutless.

 

[Zybalto]

Who said it was only their fault? I said they don’t get their share of blame for not playing to their standards and abilities in those situations, just the same as the goalie.

You wanna watch, if you can stomach it, the effort level of the Tampa players in the games you’re referring to, and then impacted them to the effort levels our clowns put in for the back half of the Montreal series.

Have you forgotten or deluded yourself about how lifelong they were for all of game 7, at home, after blowing a 3-1 series lead? Five minutes into that game, it was clear it was over. They looked like it was an exhibition game. That is indeed undeniably spinessness.

But while that was going on, Campbell let in the softie. We were never going to win that game with what our goalie or our skaters were giving us, but it’s so much more comfortable to not put the blame,, or admit that the golden boys we want so badly to deliver for us just won’t.

Lol. The Tampa stars, after being embarrassed by Columbus two years ago, play in the post season as though their mother lives are on the line. Go watch game 7 again. We were losing 3/4 of the foot races to loose pucks and pucks behind the refine to a slower and less talented team. Gutless.

5 minutes into game 7 when the shots were 4-2 Leafs in a 0-0 game? I think you went into that game with an agenda my friend.

In game 7, when Matthews was on the ice, shots were 17-10 Leafs and the shots the Canadians were getting were weaksauce as actual scoring chances were 18-3 with him on the ice. He was the also one who set up the only Leafs goal. Without Matthews on the ice scoring chances were 11-6 Montreal.

That game was a perfect distillation of the problem the past two years. Depth lines and goaltending not coming through while the top players fight their tails off to make up for it.

So Matthews is out there with the best defensive numbers in the first round, next to no help from depth players, saddled with weaksauce goaltending in elimination games and puts up those kind of differentials against a great defensive center all while playing injured and you think its gutless?

Jeez.

..and no, Tampa stars didnt play even close to that level in elimination games. Vasy got them 4 shutouts in the 5 right?

 

[Golden_Jet]

5 minutes into game 7 when the shots were 4-2 Leafs in a 0-0 game? I think you went into that game with an agenda my friend.

In game 7, when Matthews was on the ice, shots were 17-10 Leafs and the shots the Canadians were getting were weaksauce as actual scoring chances were 18-3 with him on the ice. He was the also one who set up the only Leafs goal. Without Matthews on the ice scoring chances were 11-6 Montreal.

That game was a perfect distillation of the problem the past two years. Depth lines and goaltending not coming through while the top players fight their tails off to make up for it.

So Matthews is out there with the best defensive numbers in the first round, next to no help from depth players, saddled with weaksauce goaltending in elimination games and puts up those kind of differentials against a great defensive center all while playing injured and you think its gutless?

Jeez.

..and no, Tampa stars didnt play even close to that level in elimination games. Vasy got them 4 shutouts in the 5 right?

No Vasilesky didn’t get 4 shutouts in 5 games, TB won 1-0 in the final game, so 1 shutout, unless you were being sarcastic.

 

[Zybalto]

No Vasilesky didn’t get 4 shutouts in 5 games, TB won 1-0 in the final game, so 1 shutout, unless you were being sarcastic.

Naw, just reference the sentence before. Was talking elimination games this year.

(4-0 to close out Florida, 2-0 to close out Carolina, 1-0 to close out the Isles, 1-0 to close out the Habs)

Deserving MVP winner.