Did this for another thread, but thought it might be interesting for some here.
Matthews vs. Ovechkin, age 20-24
Before we make any adjustments, let's look at their goal-scoring paces within their respective environments.
Goals per game:
Ovechkin - 0.68
Matthews - 0.65
Goals per game (empty net removed):
Matthews - 0.64
Ovechkin - 0.64
So before we apply any context/adjustments/etc., we can see that they are comparable, with the only minor difference being some goals into an empty net. Now that we have a baseline, there are two factors that heavily impact these results, that we should apply consideration for.
1. League scoring levels have risen at ES and on the PP since the early cap era. We need to adjust Ovechkin's production to Matthews-era league scoring.
2. Game state distribution has changed since the early cap era, and has shifted towards more ES time and less special teams (PP and PK). This (and other external factors) has resulted in Matthews receiving more ES time per game than Ovechkin, and Ovechkin receiving more PP time per game than Matthews. To get a good understanding of how their goal-scoring abilities compare, we need to look at both Matthews and Ovechkin's raw production in each game state in the context of the time opportunity they received to produce it.
The most accurate way to compare this is to look at their respective era-adjusted (to account for the discrepancies in league-wide scoring) production per 60 (to account for the discrepancies in time/game state distribution) in each game state.
Even Strength Goals per 60, era adjusted
Ovechkin - 1.75
Matthews - 1.71
Even Strength Goals per 60, era adjusted (empty net removed)
Matthews - 1.68
Ovechkin - 1.61
Powerplay Goals per 60, era adjusted
Matthews - 3.59
Ovechkin - 2.64
Part of what makes Ovechkin special is how long he has kept up a high-level of goal-scoring, but as we can clearly see, Matthews' goal-scoring ability through the 20-24 age range is unquestionably on Ovechkin's level, if not higher.
