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News Article: Auston Matthews - August 1st., Contract Crickets

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Mess said:
Matthews shouldn't be a free agent after next season if the Leafs had a competent GM and Auston was signed to 8 year term, based on his current AAV of $11.634 mil.

Because of Matthews current bad contract mistake the Leafs will be forced to double down on that mistake, and now pay Matthews at a higher AAV and CH% than McDavid or lose the player. When Auston was signed originally his deal was based primarily on RFA years (first 4 of his current contract) so teams use NHL comparable contracts when negotiating & signing of restricted free agents (RFA) to their 2nd contracts at team cost controllable contracts. The McDavid contract for a 2nd contract coming out of player entry level contracts ELC set the ceiling for all RFA players that were signing their 2nd deals. Notice how NO RFA signed contract has exceeded McDavid's $12.5 mil AAV from 6 years ago. That was my original point !!

Another poaching team is getting Matthews as an asset for free other than contract amount which is forcing Leafs hand into overpaying Auston because he got signed for only 5 years and not 8.

However there are no true player comparables for unrestricted free agents (UFAs), and the laws of market supply and demand set those prices independently based on what teams are willing to bid and offer against each other.. McDavid's current price from 6 years ago would have no relevancy in setting Matthews next contract should he become an unrestricted free agent.

That wasn't my point of original post, while our post would prove true ,its moving the goal posts from a RFA signed deal to now a UFA signed deal, it only amplifies how bad the current deal is for the Leafs because a full NMC clause and open market that gives Matthews full controll to extort as much money out of the Leafs as he can to his advantage, or force the Leafs hand and set him free and the only organization in the position to lose an asset, others can only gain from Leafs decision. You could have said MacKinnon new deal > McDavid but that again is a ALL UFA year deal and 3rd contract.

Only a cluessless Dubas got played by clever player agent and screwed the Leafs organization over to keep their own player, because of his incompetence when signing Matthews current deal.
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Whew. In other words, Matty got ‘em by the short and curlies and the Leafs gone done and gotta do it eh?

KPower said:
Dubas walked him right to free agency on a no trade clause. What a buffoon.
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I’m no Dubas basher, but neither a defender. Right in to UFA.. it’s gotta rank among best player friendly star level 2nd deals ever given.

I barely care about the AAV here, it’ll be highest in league, it won’t be ridiculously out of line. The term is the intriguing part of this. 5-6-ish sounds good. Let’s get it over with, this one you can’t move off. We’re pot committed in poker terms. If you’ve made a mistake it’s already made, can’t take it back, can only hope what you think was an mistake turns out not to be. Even if you think you’re losing there’s no sense not following through.

Bigger decisions at hand with MM and Willy.
 
Sypher04 said:
The problem with this line of math thinking is that Matthews’ ELC production rates put him much closer to McDavid’s numbers than it did Eichel’s. Also a year’s cap growth of 4.5M

The day Matthews signed his extension the equivalent contract to McDavid’s deal was 13.25M. Matthews signed for the better part of 2 million less than that, and was in fact nearly mid point between McDavid and Eichel in cap percentage. If he’d gone longer term, his percentage would have moved more toward McDavid, but never quite match his obviously

And haven’t we been told repeatedly that the Oilers offered McDavid something like 13.5M (18%) on his 8 year deal and he countered at 12.5M for the good of the team? If that’s as true as people claim, then his actual valuation by the Oilers was equivalent to 14.31M the day Matthew signed. This last bit is all what ifs though.
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But Sypher... don't you see the inconsistency here?

When a leaf comparable signs a TEAM friendly deal, its' the new benchmark for leaf players.

But when a leaf comparable player sighs a PLAYER friendly contract (McDavid), it now "doesn't count".

Do you not agree that's an unfair pro gm biased opinion?
 
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notbias said:
At what age do we not want Matthews? 8 years takes him to 35 if I am not mistaken. 5 sounds good to me.
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5 years is fine if the Leafs are 100% walking away or trading him when it ends.

I can almost guarantee they're not walking away from him at that age since he'll still be in his prime.

Instead, they will attempt to extend him again at 31 (a year before the 5-year extension finishes) and likely offer a disastrous 7-8 year deal. It's better to take the longer-term deal right now to avoid having to overpay for Matthews' declining years later.
 
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Eternal Leaf said:
5 years is fine if the Leafs are 100% walking away or trading him when it ends.

I can almost guarantee they're not walking away from him at that age since he'll still be in his prime.

Instead, they will attempt to extend him again at 31 (a year before the 5-year extension finishes) and likely offer a disastrous 7-8 year deal. It's better to take the longer-term deal right now to avoid having to overpay for Matthews' declining years later.
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Tavares and Brodie are 32/33 and people want to get rid of them for free, not sure how we'd feel with Matthews signed past that, I would like to re-evaluate at the time.
 
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Sypher04 said:
The problem with this line of math thinking is that Matthews’ ELC production rates put him much closer to McDavid’s numbers than it did Eichel’s. Also a year’s cap growth of 4.5M

The day Matthews signed his extension the equivalent contract to McDavid’s deal was 13.25M. Matthews signed for the better part of 2 million less than that, and was in fact nearly mid point between McDavid and Eichel in cap percentage. If he’d gone longer term, his percentage would have moved more toward McDavid, but never quite match his obviously

And haven’t we been told repeatedly that the Oilers offered McDavid something like 13.5M (18%) on his 8 year deal and he countered at 12.5M for the good of the team? If that’s as true as people claim, then his actual valuation by the Oilers was equivalent to 14.31M the day Matthew signed. This last bit is all what ifs though.
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Throw More Waffles said:
But Sypher... don't you see the inconsistency here?

When a leaf comparable signs a TEAM friendly deal, its' the new benchmark for leaf players.

But when a leaf comparable player sighs a PLAYER friendly contract (McDavid), it now "doesn't count".

Do you not agree that's an unfair pro gm biased opinion?
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ahahah he said Matthews was closer to McDavid than Eichel for his entry level contract?

Jack .69 .93 .96
AM .84 1.02 1.07
CM 1.07 1.22 1.32

AM Year 1 - 0.15 to Jack and -0.23 to MC
AM Year 2 - 0.09 to Jack and -0.20 to MC
AM Year 3 - 0.11 to Jack and -0.25 to MC
Total 0.35 to Jack and -0.68 to MC

Sorry, AM is closer to Jack E than he is to CM on his Entry level contract... Austin should have been signed to a 10M x 8 Year or if you say he is better than Jack and its only by a bit hes should be at 11 x 8 as he is 11% a year on average better than Jack E.
 
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Madap said:
All good on my end brother.

Seems like all the people who are on the verge of a breakdown in the middle of the summer should be the ones who are taking a break from this site. Would probably do wonders for the health.
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I don’t think I can argue with that logic, but then I’d be missing out on the fun. Haha
 
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joepeps said:
ahahah he said Matthews was closer to McDavid than Eichel for his entry level contract?
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Through their ELCs up to point of signing, Matthews was way, way, way closer to McDavid than Eichel.

Points per game
McDavid - 1.17
Matthews - 0.98
Eichel - 0.80

Primary Points per game
McDavid - 0.83
Matthews - 0.83
Eichel - 0.63

Most recent pace at time of signing
McDavid - 100
Matthews - 100
Eichel - 77

5v5 P/60
McDavid - 2.83
Matthews - 2.63
Eichel - 1.60

5v5 P1/60
Matthews - 2.27
McDavid - 2.18
Eichel - 1.26

PP P/60
Matthews - 6.47
McDavid - 6.44
Eichel - 6.30

PP P1/60
Matthews - 5.06
Eichel - 4.76
McDavid - 3.61

And this is how their contracts look under the same 79.5m cap.

Eichel (valuation) - 10.6m x 8 years
Matthews (valuation) - 11.6m x 5 years
McDavid (post-discount) - 13.25m x 8 years
McDavid (valuation) - 14.05m x 8 years
 
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notbias said:
So the cap will likely be 87.5 when his contract kicks in...

12.5 million is 14.3% of the cap.

0.3% less than his current hit.

His comparable is Panarin in your opinion?

MacKinnon's contract is 15.3%.

People just look at numbers and have no clue, start looking at cap hit % if you want to start thinking like the players/agents/management.
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The Leafs would be wise to work off a cap projection of 85 million when his contact kicks in.

15.3% = 13 million for 8 yrs.

Go down from there.
 
KPower said:
Matty is in the driver seat…leafs have to bend over and take it.

3 years at 13.5 is the most likely outcome unless he wants out.
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That term and number would indicate to me that he wants out.

Matthews doesn’t have to be told they have a ton of holes to fill and it’ll take time and the contract would hinder them even more.
 
Yes the cap is going up but if we give all the increase to the same 3 guys that couldn’t get it done we will be in that same position we are now, doesn’t make and sense.
Goes back to the initial mistake by Dubas, these guys got paid like winners before they actually won anything
 
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joepeps said:
ahahah he said Matthews was closer to McDavid than Eichel for his entry level contract?

Jack .69 .93 .96
AM .84 1.02 1.07
CM 1.07 1.22 1.32

AM Year 1 - 0.15 to Jack and -0.23 to MC
AM Year 2 - 0.09 to Jack and -0.20 to MC
AM Year 3 - 0.11 to Jack and -0.25 to MC
Total 0.35 to Jack and -0.68 to MC

Sorry, AM is closer to Jack E than he is to CM on his Entry level contract... Austin should have been signed to a 10M x 8 Year or if you say he is better than Jack and its only by a bit hes should be at 11 x 8 as he is 11% a year on average better than Jack E.
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Eichel didn’t have much offense around him in Buffalo, but we saw what he could do on a really good team.
Matthews may never get that opportunity.
 
Nineteen67 said:
That term and number would indicate to me that he wants out.

Matthews doesn’t have to be told they have a ton of holes to fill and it’ll take time and the contract would hinder them even more.
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I would say first day of trading camp will be the critical date. If he is not signed by then he will be gone at year end
 
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Racer88 said:
I would say first day of trading camp will be the critical date. If he is not signed by then he will be gone at year end
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The way the season ended, the bumbling GM scenario, the draft, free agency, it’s been a bad off-season even by Leafs standards. Matthews’ camp may not want any part of it.

If they go into the season with the two pending UFAs and a lame duck coach it could turn into a circus.
 
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IPS said:
Marner? There's no decision to be made anymore. They paved his path to UFA with another NTC, except they gave him his 2 years before his contract expires. Legitimately some of the most incompetent GM'ing ever seen. Like suspiciously incompeten
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Wait till he starts drafting shrimps in Pittsburgh
He is 1 of 30 decent gms in the NHL
The fenway group will learn fast
 
Nineteen67 said:
That term and number would indicate to me that he wants out.

Matthews doesn’t have to be told they have a ton of holes to fill and it’ll take time and the contract would hinder them even more.
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I disagree.

He wants to be highest paid and always highest paid.

So in 3 years he goes back to the highest paid.

www.capfriendly.com

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years
www.capfriendly.com www.capfriendly.com

1692541677953.png


At that point he'll know how much McDavid is making.

As much as it would be nice to see him locked down, it might be better for the Leafs to actually know who he is in 4 years.

Of course Leafs have Rodidas Island if his injuries continue to cut into his playing time and his wrist becomes chronic.
 
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I would give him his $$ask/term, but would insist on having trade window in the offseason of at least his last season.

I'm hoping they are just haggling over NMC and snacks in the clubhouse.
 
ULF_55 said:
I disagree.

He wants to be highest paid and always highest paid.

So in 3 years he goes back to the highest paid.

www.capfriendly.com

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years
www.capfriendly.com www.capfriendly.com

View attachment 737444

At that point he'll know how much McDavid is making.

As much as it would be nice to see him locked down, it might be better for the Leafs to actually know who he is in 4 years.

Of course Leafs have Rodidas Island if his injuries continue to cut into his playing time and his wrist becomes chronic.
Click to expand...
True. He may not care about the holes in the lineup.
 
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