Attitude adjustment?

[egd27]

Seems there are a few themes that keep popping up in this thread.

• Find someone to teach the rich kids to play the "right way"
  
• Hold the players accountable for their effort
• Balance the lines and make the players earn their ice time

Seems to me that was the message and direction prior to Dubas taking over, but it was rejected by both the players and a good percentage of the fans (if this place is any indication).

"We don't need no stinking dinosaur rules"

 

[Mess]

Seems there are a few themes that keep popping up in this thread.

• Find someone to teach the rich kids to play the "right way"
  
• Hold the players accountable for their effort
• Balance the lines and make the players earn their ice time

Seems to me that was the message and direction prior to Dubas taking over, but it was rejected by both the players and a good percentage of the fans (if this place is any indication).

"We don't need no stinking dinosaur rules"

If you sign a bunch of players to the highest contracts in the league, and then you need to also find and pay other players to motivate them, to educate them, to lead them, and to teach them that "killer instinct" then you're paying the wrong players to start with. Your best and highest paid players have to be those leaders that others follow, not the other way around.

Despite the clearly measurable disappointing results, to me it seems Leafs management is living in some idealistic self-fulfilling prophecy world, were a self-fulfilling prophecy is the sociopsychological phenomenon of someone "predicting" or expecting something, and this "prediction" or expectation coming true simply because the person believes it will. Leafs will eventually find ultimate success because that is what we're paying them all this money for, so the positive results are inevitable its only a matter of time now. So they're intent on doing the same things over and over again and expecting different results.

To me it seems we have more the opposite happening in Toronto of a self-defeating or self-negating prophecy society in play. Where you have created a sense of entitlement and complacency environment by overpaying undeserving and underperforming players that didn't earn it on merit, but felt entitled to it, simply because they demanded it, and then were gifted it. If the solution is an attitude adjustment & correction, and it needs to come externally by other players/people outside the organization then you're not on the right path to success. Then its not more TIME the solution, but rather different management and different player personnel required to alter this dynamic.

 

[ACC1224]

I don't see how anyone can watch his effort that series and honestly feel happy with his effort. Teammates/coaching staff/front office. At least I hope..if not, we're in even deeper shit than I thought.

I doubt they question his effort, his effort is always there. Results would be questioned for sure as they should be. They would be looking at the results put up by a lot of players, not just Marner.

 

[New Liskeard]

Well for starters, take the A off Marner and just keep Matthews as the permanent A.

A tougher coaching staff that'll hold guys accountable for shitty effort.

There is no doubt Marner in particular cares deeply and puts 100% effort in. That was clear at the end of year presser; I seen a young hockey player who was speechless and dejected by the loss and inability to beat the Habs. He can be held accountable for not producing (as does Matthews) but to say he has no heart or effort is completely false in my eyes.

 

[ShaneFalco]

There is no doubt Marner in particular cares deeply and puts 100% effort in. That was clear at the end of year presser; I seen a young hockey player who was speechless and dejected by the loss and inability to beat the Habs. He can be held accountable for not producing (as does Matthews) but to say he has no heart or effort is completely false in my eyes.

I saw someone who had a tone, an attitude and said he won't/wouldn't do anything differently

 

[ShaneFalco]

Seems there are a few themes that keep popping up in this thread.

• Find someone to teach the rich kids to play the "right way"
  
• Hold the players accountable for their effort
• Balance the lines and make the players earn their ice time

Seems to me that was the message and direction prior to Dubas taking over, but it was rejected by both the players and a good percentage of the fans (if this place is any indication).

"We don't need no stinking dinosaur rules"

I'll admit, I was on board the Dubas and Keefe train and was pumped for the playoffs. Their performance in that series destroyed any and all hope I had that they had turned a corner. I see the same team that when the season is on the line, they do not, and will not perform, or even play like it's the playoffs
And I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see a way forward with the big 4. Unlike some on here to stick to their guns no matter what (ie Marner), I on't mind being wrong and admitting it

 

[Mess]

Flawed logic in Toronto that support and secondary depth players are suppose to provide some magical attitude adjustment and alter the teams path to success, while turning Leafs core and star players into playoff warriors.

Tampa Bay Lightening have won back to back Stanley Cups with Kucherov contributing 66 points over the course of those 2 years and leading the playoffs in scoring both times. Brayden Point has back to back 14 goal playoff season leading the playoffs both years in goal scoring. Norris trophy Dman Victor Hedman and Vezina trophy Andrei Vasilevskiy have been awarded the playoff MVP in consecutive years as their core players carried the team to Cup victory. Barclay Goodrow (2-4-6 points) and Blake Coleman (3-8-11 points) are good solid 3rd line depth players playing 14 minutes a night on a Cup winning team and not the ones transforming these core players into key contibutors.

In Toronto I get the impression there is this belief that the only thing missing is an attitude adjustment and some minor tinkering around the edges from turning Matthews and Marner (despite making considerately more $$) into Kucherov and Point, and Dman Reilly and goalie Campbell into Conn Smythe leading playoff MVPs like Hedman and Vas for the Leafs to replicate this success model. This is all going to happen this summer by Leafs going out and signing Barclay Goodrow and Blake Coleman as UFAs as 3rd liners and squeezing them under the Leafs tight salary cap.

This appears to be the belief system that not only some Fans, but also Leafs management hold that Goodrow and Coleman (like players) are going to transform the Leafs core forwards currently using 1/2 their cap, that have struggled mightily in playoffs with the tight checking, hard hitting physical style play, while assisting coach Keefe to become a better coach making better line matching and personnel decisions, while elevating Leaf players into Conn Symthe worthy playoff defense and goaltending and into the Tampa Bay Lightning success model overnight.

 

[Stephen]

Babcock used to put Hyman-Matthews-Brown together on the road because opposing coach had the last change. Nylander could run some offence on his own. Had nothing to do with benching Nylander

Overall though i do agree with your point, under Keefe it seems like there's no accountability

With Keefe, it seems like he rolls out the big line like it's a matter of probability. Surely, if you repeat the same shift and matchups again, the numbers would suggest that the low shooting percentages normalize, the goals per 60 flood gates have to break open, the powerplay will correct itself with enough reps, they can't shut us down forever.

I don't even think they're speaking in the language of accountability, effort. Seems to be a mentality that "if we replayed this Game 5, 6, 7 over 100x times, we probably win 97 times if we keep doing what we do." To some degree luck is a factor, but they are also giving away tactical advantages by ignoring line matchups and failing to try to grab whatever edge they can.

 

[Racer88]

There is no doubt Marner in particular cares deeply and puts 100% effort in. That was clear at the end of year presser; I seen a young hockey player who was speechless and dejected by the loss and inability to beat the Habs. He can be held accountable for not producing (as does Matthews) but to say he has no heart or effort is completely false in my eyes.

Many fans saw a player that was annoyed the people would even question his effort. We all saw and heard a player that has no intention of changing anytime soon

 

[ToneDog]

Flawed logic in Toronto that support and secondary depth players are suppose to provide some magical attitude adjustment and alter the teams path to success, while turning Leafs core and star players into playoff warriors.

Tampa Bay Lightening have won back to back Stanley Cups with Kucherov contributing 66 points over the course of those 2 years and leading the playoffs in scoring both times. Brayden Point has back to back 14 goal playoff season leading the playoffs both years in goal scoring. Norris trophy Dman Victor Hedman and Vezina trophy Andrei Vasilevskiy have been awarded the playoff MVP in consecutive years as their core players carried the team to Cup victory. Barclay Goodrow (2-4-6 points) and Blake Coleman (3-8-11 points) are good solid 3rd line depth players playing 14 minutes a night on a Cup winning team and not the ones transforming these core players into key contibutors.

In Toronto I get the impression there is this belief that the only thing missing is an attitude adjustment and some minor tinkering around the edges from turning Matthews and Marner (despite making considerately more $$) into Kucherov and Point, and Dman Reilly and goalie Campbell into Conn Smythe leading playoff MVPs like Hedman and Vas for the Leafs to replicate this success model. This is all going to happen this summer by Leafs going out and signing Barclay Goodrow and Blake Coleman as UFAs as 3rd liners and squeezing them under the Leafs tight salary cap.

This appears to be the belief system that not only some Fans, but also Leafs management hold that Goodrow and Coleman (like players) are going to transform the Leafs core forwards currently using 1/2 their cap, that have struggled mightily in playoffs with the tight checking, hard hitting physical style play, while assisting coach Keefe to become a better coach making better line matching and personnel decisions, while elevating Leaf players into Conn Symthe worthy playoff defense and goaltending and into the Tampa Bay Lightning success model overnight.

All this team needs is a "killer" instinct. Simple, no ?? Unfortunately it will take an overhaul of the team to get it. In the meantime Dubas is burning the midnight oil crunching numbers. Sorry, not bullish on this team doing well this year.

 

[ToneDog]

Many fans saw a player that was annoyed the people would even question his effort. We all saw and heard a player that has no intention of changing anytime soon

Guessing kid been the best player on his team since he was 4 and as such is not used to players ratchetting it up in the playoffs and not allowing him to play his game. Needs to adjust his game or it will be worse next year if he goes goaless in a 6th first round loss in a row.

 

[Racer88]

Guessing kid been the best player on his team since he was 4 and as such is not used to players ratchetting it up in the playoffs and not allowing him to play his game. Needs to adjust his game or it will be worse next year if he goes goaless in a 6th first round loss in a row.

I agree with this 100%. Up to this point success has come easy to him. He has not been tested early in his career. He is absolutely not prepared to excel when the going gets tough. Add in the fact that he hasn’t scored a PP goal in over a year. For an 11 million dollar player that is simply unacceptable.
The scary part is he doesn’t think he needs to do anything different.
It’s going to be a rough season coming up for Leafs fans.

 

[Mess]

With Keefe, it seems like he rolls out the big line like it's a matter of probability. Surely, if you repeat the same shift and matchups again, the numbers would suggest that the low shooting percentages normalize, the goals per 60 flood gates have to break open, the powerplay will correct itself with enough reps, they can't shut us down forever.

I don't even think they're speaking in the language of accountability, effort. Seems to be a mentality that "if we replayed this Game 5, 6, 7 over 100x times, we probably win 97 times if we keep doing what we do." To some degree luck is a factor, but they are also giving away tactical advantages by ignoring line matchups and failing to try to grab whatever edge they can.

Isn't that really what analytics is all about when building a team based on spreadsheet numbers and then projecting probabilities of success if those underlying numbers are strong?

If you have winning x/GF and GA and strong possession Corsi numbers CF% with low HDCF and HDCA figures etc with positive sh% and a sv% figures that if you change nothing but keep repeating the same sequences over and over again that if you do it long enough that as the sample size increases eventually positive outcomes will occur simply by playing the percentages. Only small data sample sets have abnormalities, and the larger they get the more the numbers become consistent and reliable and theoretical trustworthy.

We know these stats are supposed to be unbiased as it doesn't matter who is taking the shot and from where they all count equal.

However if a player like Matthews has a 20% SH% as his base average meaning he scores a goal every 5 shots on net and suddenly his goals and thus SH% drops to 5%, then the solution to auto correct is simply more ice time and opportunity = more potential shots on net = more goals as a abnormal low SH% rises back up to its regular median and average. Coaching by analytics 101, but that doesn't take into account the opposition strategy or change the reason for the decrease as a result of system and personnel like Danault, Weber and Price, and doesn't take into account player declining efficiency through endurance metrics, even if you give the same players 3-4 minutes shifts at end of game trying to mount a comeback thinking that every minute is the same, because a spreadsheet doesn't apply strategy nor logic of diminishing returns, it only represent data.

Matthews SH% is dependent on and a derivative of Marner passing ability, so how else do you explain the only strategy deployed by Keefe was more ATOI/g for both players and together so you don't alter the variables that created that original positive data set analytics you're attempting to achieve?. Coaching to get these players away from shutdown players, or separate them on different lines with different linemates would invalidate the analytics strategy by changing variables and defeat their usage as your strategy of trying to recreate them through repetitions.

Underlying #'s were good, so if they don't reproduce the expected results that's simply "bad luck", because if you repeat them over and over again, eventually the luck competent will be removed when the numbers translate to success and match the analytics behind them. Dubas keeps managing by the numbers and Keefe keeps coaching by the percentages and the end results are self explanatory.

 

[Mess]

All this team needs is a "killer" instinct. Simple, no ?? Unfortunately it will take an overhaul of the team to get it. In the meantime Dubas is burning the midnight oil crunching numbers. Sorry, not bullish on this team doing well this year.

I'm being serious here when I say this, that there likely are actual people out there that might include Leafs management themselves that believe that they following statements are true. IMHO

Leafs management + Leafs core players + Barclay Goodrow + Blake Coleman = killer instinct and thus replicate the current TB playoff success model.
& vice versa
TB management + TB core players - Barclay Goodrow - Blake Coleman = no killer instinct and thus the current Toronto lack of playoff success model.

How else could one explain management's killer instinct comments and solution being a few fringe depth players around the edges away and the only thing missing from turning the Leafs into the Lightening, by using that $9 mil free cap space strategically this off season, on a couple of depth forwards, a spare dman, and a backup goalie and fix all that is broken?

This will transform Matthews, Marner and Taveres into Kucherov, Point and Stamkos, and Reilly and Campbell into Hedman and Vasilevskiy come playoff time.

When in reality replacing Hyman and his +20 potential goal seasons with Barclay Goodrow (6-14-20 point regular season and 2-4-6 playoffs) for Hyman's old cap of $2.25 mil will be a downgrade and have little to no effect on killer instinct nor impact Leafs core 4 forwards productivity come playoff time.

PS. Goodrow and Coleman just example of the types of players Leafs might be looking as an example.

 

[Stephen]

PS. Goodrow and Coleman just example of the types of players Leafs might be looking as an example.

Leafs need to really lean on pro scouting to uncover the next round of Goodrow and Coleman.

Miles Wood, Tyler Bertuzzi, Lawson Crouse, Alex Formenton, Andrew Mangiapane, Tomas Nosek, guys who aren't fresh off high profile cup runs who can fill those gaps on the roster and provide the ingredients we need from role players.

 

[Stonehands1990]

With Keefe, it seems like he rolls out the big line like it's a matter of probability. Surely, if you repeat the same shift and matchups again, the numbers would suggest that the low shooting percentages normalize, the goals per 60 flood gates have to break open, the powerplay will correct itself with enough reps, they can't shut us down forever.

I don't even think they're speaking in the language of accountability, effort. Seems to be a mentality that "if we replayed this Game 5, 6, 7 over 100x times, we probably win 97 times if we keep doing what we do." To some degree luck is a factor, but they are also giving away tactical advantages by ignoring line matchups and failing to try to grab whatever edge they can.

I can’t wait for Keefe to accomplish his goal of winning a 1st round by playing 34 & 16 Hedman minutes only for them to get bulldozed in the 2nd round by a team that isn’t exhausted

 

[Stephen]

I can’t wait for Keefe to accomplish his goal of winning a 1st round by playing 34 & 16 Hedman minutes only for them to get bulldozed in the 2nd round by a team that isn’t exhausted

Definitely unconventional utilization for forwards.

 

[Stonehands1990]

Leafs need to really lean on pro scouting to uncover the next round of Goodrow and Coleman.

Miles Wood, Tyler Bertuzzi, Lawson Crouse, Alex Formenton, Andrew Mangiapane, Tomas Nosek, guys who aren't fresh off high profile cup runs who can fill those gaps on the roster and provide the ingredients we need from role players.

I’ve been preaching this. Instead we get Malgin

 

[HolyCrap]

I'll admit, I was on board the Dubas and Keefe train and was pumped for the playoffs. Their performance in that series destroyed any and all hope I had that they had turned a corner. I see the same team that when the season is on the line, they do not, and will not perform, or even play like it's the playoffs
And I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see a way forward with the big 4. Unlike some on here to stick to their guns no matter what (ie Marner), I on't mind being wrong and admitting it

I had the exact same mentality as you did and I’m in the exact same mentality as you are now. I’ll admit I was wrong expecting positive results with Shanny, Dubas, Keefe and the core.

 

[Antropovsky]

One thing is for certain... the roster is hilariously soft. When "rookie" Sandin came in near the end of the year it was shocking to the eyes to see a player go out of their way to be physical and be hated by the opponent. The fact it was shocking is an indication of how long we've been watching a soft group of players.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Attitude adjustment

To paid unionized players.

L to the O to the L.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

One thing is for certain... the roster is hilariously soft. When "rookie" Sandin came in near the end of the year it was shocking to the eyes to see a player go out of their way to be physical and be hated by the opponent. The fact it was shocking is an indication of how long we've been watching a soft group of players.

So sad.

Give him 2 years and he'll tire of putting in the extra effort.

Toronto Maple Leafs Country Club claims another.

Blue and White fever.


Mitch Marner - Me > Team.

 

[Stonehands1990]

I had the exact same mentality as you did and I’m in the exact same mentality as you are now. I’ll admit I was wrong expecting positive results with Shanny, Dubas, Keefe and the core.

I’m in this boat however after the Columbus series I was already done with Keefe

 

[Gabriel426]

With Keefe, it seems like he rolls out the big line like it's a matter of probability. Surely, if you repeat the same shift and matchups again, the numbers would suggest that the low shooting percentages normalize, the goals per 60 flood gates have to break open, the powerplay will correct itself with enough reps, they can't shut us down forever.

I don't even think they're speaking in the language of accountability, effort. Seems to be a mentality that "if we replayed this Game 5, 6, 7 over 100x times, we probably win 97 times if we keep doing what we do." To some degree luck is a factor, but they are also giving away tactical advantages by ignoring line matchups and failing to try to grab whatever edge they can.

That’s pretty much the moneyball concept where everything will average out, lol.

I think Dubas and Keefe as well as all the other advanced stats people are so concern and focus on stats that they forgot a few things.
Billy Beane and his moneyball approach happened bc the As had no money to resign their own UFAs.
They need to find other ways to compete. Kind of like if a baseball team don’t have good starters, then they build their bullpen to take over the game around the 5th inning.
Also Moneyball look at stats differently like Getting a solo HR or hitting a single and driving in a run is the same on the score board.
Advanced stats should be about ignoring all the BS and sugarcoat.
You need to score at least ONE goal than your opponent to win the game.
I think the NHL is a 3 goals league. The team need at least 3 goals to win. If Goalies average about .925 save%, then the team need to generate 40 shots/game to get 3 goals.
The 40 shots is the key number. MGT of hockey need to figure out the best possible lineup to achieve that 40 shots on goal.

 

[Stephen]

That’s pretty much the moneyball concept where everything will average out, lol.

I think Dubas and Keefe as well as all the other advanced stats people are so concern and focus on stats that they forgot a few things.
Billy Beane and his moneyball approach happened bc the As had no money to resign their own UFAs.
They need to find other ways to compete. Kind of like if a baseball team don’t have good starters, then they build their bullpen to take over the game around the 5th inning.
Also Moneyball look at stats differently like Getting a solo HR or hitting a single and driving in a run is the same on the score board.
Advanced stats should be about ignoring all the BS and sugarcoat.
You need to score at least ONE goal than your opponent to win the game.
I think the NHL is a 3 goals league. The team need at least 3 goals to win. If Goalies average about .925 save%, then the team need to generate 40 shots/game to get 3 goals.
The 40 shots is the key number. MGT of hockey need to figure out the best possible lineup to achieve that 40 shots on goal.

Yeah, if we rewind back to Moneyball, the whole point of analytics was to allow for a team on a shoe string budget run by outsiders (Brad Pitt as Billy Beane and his sidekick Jonah Hill) to make incisive budget choices and produce wins at a much cheaper rate with undervalued players. In that movie, there was a whole David Justice vs Scott Hatteberg replacement, blah blah blah.

The way this has translated in Leaf Land is we now pay more dollars to our star players than just about anybody in the game and have so little money left over that we need to consistently beat the market on about half of the roster in order to keep growing as Stanley Cup contenders.