Atlantic might be the only division where every team(sans Montreal) could conceivably make the playoffs.
Would have the Panthers, Bruins, and Leafs all solidly in, but also maybe a disaster season wouldn't be out of the question for any of those three.
Florida: cup hangover, lost some talent, Bob another year older, scoring regression, maybe injuries etc
Boston: Swayman drama, new additions not fitting, can't score goals, Marchand gets old, PP sucks, can't score goals, maybe injuries etc
Toronto: goaltending? who is even their starter, underwhelming patchwork blueline, lack of scoring depth, Marner/Treliving drama, maybe injuries and of course the ever present Maple Leafs factortm
4th spot I would give to the team with the best goaltending, and that's still Tampa. Vasilevskiy, Kucherov, Point, and Hedman aren't dead yet and Guentzel I could see going off in his first season there. I really don't think there will be all that much of a downgrade from Sergachev to McDonagh/Moser, Serg was one of the more overrated top pairing guys in the league in my eyes. Could definitely see them falling apart too, or having a horrible start that ultimately sinks them post-Stamkos. Would give them 65/35 type odds at playoffs.
4/5th spot could be any of the Sens, Wings, or Sabres. Out of those three I believe in Detroit most of all. But I'll root Buffalo, 13 years is longer than most 1st offense violent crime convictions. The fans at least have put in their time and then some. I'll say Lindy gets those kooky kids back in the playoffs. Ottawa could get in if Sanderson takes a big step and Ullmark stays healthy. I know what his numbers say but not super sold on Stutzle as a contending 1C.