Atlantic Standings Predictions Thread

[bert]

Vegas odds aren't for the odds that an event to happen, its the odds that will make them the most money. They are heavily influenced by the popularity of the 2 competitors. A good example is Conor McGregor odds (when he fights). He has a massive amount of casual mma fans who will bet on him almost no matter the odds, so they factor it in their betting odds to generate the most profit.

Ok so Vegas sets lines to make money. So you think by setting the odds Montreal has 76.5 points which you all deem low low will make them more money? The second biggest fanbase in hockey? But make it 91.5 for Ottawa an average sized fanbase. I hope you're able to understand via deductive reasoning how this hurts your argument that they don't know what they are doing even more.

@Lshap

 

[bert]

Who cares about where the minority lies on a sports message board where the majority are entirely clueless.

Montreal just added almost an entire 2nd line to compliment their first line which I believe was 5th or 6th in the league in scoring over the final 40 games. Slafkovsky is on a ridiculous development curve that had him just under a ppg over the final 40 and could very well break out big time. Armia was a beast after getting psychological help and he will likely be with Dvorak and Roy on the third line which should be an above average 3rd line in terms of production. Josh Anderson and Gallagher on the 4th line will easily make up one of the best 4th lines in hockey.

Then consider the extra year of experience for Guhle, Xhekaj and Barron as well as the addition of Hutson and possibly Reinbacher and Mailloux at some point.

There are a plethora of reasons to provide optimism for a major transformation but you just stick to the Don Cherry level of traditional media prognostication.....because that has always worked so well lol.

So let's get this straight.

1. No expectations in Montreal
2. Everyone else is wrong about montreals evaluations except fans of Montreal.
3. Vegas sets betting over under lines at the following

Montreals 76.5
Detroit 88.5
Buffalo 90.5
Ottawa 91.5

As per another montreal fan, vegas tries draw in gamblers with their lines. BUUUUT the Habs are as good or better than all those teams. Based on that logic Vegas must hate money.

One other observation in this thread Montreals young players appear to be the only ones capable of getting better or at the very least have the most upside.

 

[bert]

So if one team loses 100 man games to injury then it has the same effect as another team that loses 600 man games? This is argument you have made

Losing bad players is different than losing good ones. Montreals few good players were all healthy last year. Every team has injuries. That's not why they were bad last year. They were bad because they are a bad team with bad depth and bad top end talent. They're gonna be better this year (not hard) but they're still the worst team in the division.

 

[Wayfarer13]

Losing bad players is different than losing good ones. Montreals few good players were all healthy last year. Every team has injuries. That's not why they were bad last year. They were bad because they are a bad team with bad depth and bad top end talent. They're gonna be better this year (not hard) but they're still the worst team in the division.

Dach arguably should have been in their top 4 forwards.Newhook lost a sizable lot of games Monahan was traded early.Caufeild took until the last 9 games to heal from the that shoulder injury.

 

[Chainshot]

The also added Cam Atkinson and high-end prospect Conor Geekie up front and brought in J.J. Moser on their defence.

Moser is an under-the-radar move that could be big for them. I really liked him with the Coyotes.

 

[bert]

Dach arguably should have been in their top 4 forwards.Newhook lost a sizable lot of games Monahan was traded early.Caufeild took until the last 9 games to heal from the that shoulder injury.

So if Dach is in a teams top 4 what does that say? Newhook is a 3rd line player and a trade is different from injuries. Every team loses middle of the lineup players like these guys. Anyways big expectations in montreal look at the thread, we will see how these young players handle real pressure.

 

[Wayfarer13]

So if Dach is in a teams top 4 what does that say? Newhook is a 3rd line player and a trade is different from injuries. Every team loses middle of the lineup players like these guys. Anyways big expectations in montreal look at the thread, we will see how these young players handle real pressure.

They were involved in 41 1 goal games plus another 15 2 goal games as amongsr the youngest teams with the youngest blueline in the league and still increased their point count. The arc is good.

 

[bert]

They were involved in 41 1 goal games plus another 15 2 goal games as amongsr the youngest teams with the youngest blueline in the league and still increased their point count. The arc is good.

-53 goal differential not a good indicator of a team that is on the rise that added one player in Laine. Other teams have young players too.

 

[Wayfarer13]

-53 goal differential not a good indicator of a team that is on the rise that added one player in Laine. Other teams have young players too.

Logic dictates the first line will score 20 to 40 goals more based on on their trend and to expect 20 to 40 goals more out the second line is not ou5 of each. Should Hutson hits that should be fun .The rest of the blueline is a year more experienced. The goal tending issue is settled and there will be rumblings of Monty for the 4 nations cup. MSL should be starting on teaching defensive systems.

 

[saska sault]

Logic dictates the first line will score 20 to 40 goals more based on on their trend and to expect 20 to 40 goals more out the second line is not ou5 of each. Should Hutson hits that should be fun .The rest of the blueline is a year more experienced. The goal tending issue is settled and there will be rumblings of Monty for the 4 nations cup. MSL should be starting on teaching defensive systems.

Expecting a roughly 10 goal increase from everyone in your top 6 is pretty illogical.

 

[bert]

Logic dictates the first line will score 20 to 40 goals more based on on their trend and to expect 20 to 40 goals more out the second line is not ou5 of each. Should Hutson hits that should be fun .The rest of the blueline is a year more experienced. The goal tending issue is settled and there will be rumblings of Monty for the 4 nations cup. MSL should be starting on teaching defensive systems.

With that Logic Stutzle should have jumped to 50 goals and 120 point scorer after his 39 and 90 point 20 year old season. He got hurt and didnt progress at all. Its not linear like that, Suzuki just had his best season of his career by a mile do you expect him to make another jump or maybe he was one of the best of his life. Simply expecting players to not get hurt and progress every year only for your team but not others isnt a very realistic way to look at it.

 

[dgibb10]

Logic dictates the first line will score 20 to 40 goals more based on on their trend and to expect 20 to 40 goals more out the second line is not ou5 of each. Should Hutson hits that should be fun .The rest of the blueline is a year more experienced. The goal tending issue is settled and there will be rumblings of Monty for the 4 nations cup. MSL should be starting on teaching defensive systems.

Logic does not dictate that.

But if you think 80 more goals is coming, that would be leading the league in goals (delusion). If you think going from Monahan to Dach (downgrade) and adding patrick laine is going to move you from 26th in scoring to 1st, I don't know what to tell you

If you think the D is also going to improve significantly, you are talking about a top 3 team in the NHL.

If you genuinely believe there is any realistic chance of that, I highly recommend placing LARGE amounts of money on MTL to reach 100 points, make the playoffs, win their division, win the cup.

 

[MXD]

Logic does not dictate that.

But if you think 80 more goals is coming, that would be leading the league in goals (delusion). If you think going from Monahan to Dach (downgrade) and adding patrick laine is going to move you from 26th in scoring to 1st, I don't know what to tell you

If you think the D is also going to improve significantly, you are talking about a top 3 team in the NHL.

If you genuinely believe there is any realistic chance of that, I highly recommend placing LARGE amounts of money on MTL to reach 100 points, make the playoffs, win their division, win the cup.

Well, logic also dicates that Suzuki's probable (slight) regression in shooting percentage shouldn't be put on the same footing as Caufield's probable (significant) regression in shooting percentages.

But you did it. Which indicates logic isn't your strong suit. And that probably makes you wholly unqualified to comment on other user's logic.

You could also drop the sock puppet while you're at it.

 

[KevinRedkey]

What I think you did was to look at the results and assume a rinse and repeat prognosis without taking into consideration of context nuance or development curve.Better go with a prediction centered a spectrum of results. If your position is that they will be at the bottom of said spectrum then state that.

I literally made no comment on standings or how good the team is overall. I never even suggested they'd be at the bottom of anything.

Somehow me disagreeing with the notion that the Habs will 'score a lot of goals' has ruffled some very delicate feathers.

 

[CDN24]

So let's get this straight.

1. No expectations in Montreal
2. Everyone else is wrong about montreals evaluations except fans of Montreal.
3. Vegas sets betting over under lines at the following

Montreals 76.5
Detroit 88.5
Buffalo 90.5
Ottawa 91.5

As per another montreal fan, vegas tries draw in gamblers with their lines. BUUUUT the Habs are as good or better than all those teams. Based on that logic Vegas must hate money.

One other observation in this thread Montreals young players appear to be the only ones capable of getting better or at the very least have the most upside.

At the end of the day Vegas odds are not that great of a predictor of final season points. League wide last year they missed on average by about 9.2 Points per team. The ranges are pretty wide. They range from underestimating by 18.5 pts (Vancouver and Winnipeg) to over estimating by 24.5 Devils).

Last year Ottawa was at 91.5 and got 78, Mtl was at 71.5 and got 78. Vegas had 20 pts between them- there were 2.

Mtl outperformed the Vegas line last year despite losing Dach for all but 4 periods, losing 50 plus games of Dach, 27 of Newhook. There were games where they only had 3 centres available and one was an Ahler or Collin White.

So yes Ottawa is likely to finish ahead of them but there is more chance the Habs exceed 76.5 pts than there is the Sens exceed 91.5

 

[CDN24]

Looks like easy money for you! Montreal had 76 points last year fyi. Also one of the worst goal differentials in the league. Oh they lost two third line players.... Happens to every team.

That was a typo- got the differential between them and Ottawa right at 2 (78-76). Lots of easy money until its not. The final results are so dependent on injuries that It's better to bet on something safer. The only guy making money is the bookie. That line will keep moving with the amount bet on each side of it.

Atlantic is an interesting division- Such a line between the Haves and have nots. 4 rebuilding teams at different stages. Habs biggest advantage is they have not been rebuilding as long as the other 3 and will hopefully learn from some of those mistakes. Buffalo seems like a permanent rebuild, Det seems to have signed maybe too many middling UFAs for too much term now these guys are blocking their kids and or taking up to much money. Being a less desirable UFA destination Ottawa tried to accelerate the rebuild by trading high picks for established players with a couple years term left (debrincat and Chychrun) and in both cases set themselves back. Habs approach to accelerate was avoid the UFA market in early stages and instead trade assets for picks Romanov/Chiarot/ Toffoli etc and then use those extra late 1st rounders on recent high picks like Dach and Newhook. Interesting to see which approach bears fruit 1st and which bears the best fruit.

 

[RandV]

I'd put the prelim Atlantic standings as:

Florida
Boston
Toronto
Tampa

Ottawa
Buffalo
Detroit
Montreal

With Montreal seeming to be in discussion here there is potential to do some damage to the predictions if Slafkovsky continues to progress into star player status and/or Dach+Laine improve/rebound to create a legit scoring line. Giving 5 potential top line scoring forwards, but some big ifs there and if not they don't have much else going for them this season.

 

[dgibb10]

With that Logic Stutzle should have jumped to 50 goals and 120 point scorer after his 39 and 90 point 20 year old season. He got hurt and didnt progress at all. Its not linear like that, Suzuki just had his best season of his career by a mile do you expect him to make another jump or maybe he was one of the best of his life. Simply expecting players to not get hurt and progress every year only for your team but not others isnt a very realistic way to look at it.

EV production

Overall production