Atlantic Standings Predictions Thread

[FerrisRox]

The average goals-for last year among the 32 teams was 253. The Habs fell 21 goals shy of that last year.

The last time the Habs hit 253+ goals, Chris Chelios (currently age 62) won a Stanley cup, Jay Bouwmeester was #1 in ice-time, and Brad Boyes was a top-5 goal scorer. They've done it one single time in the last 27 seasons. Seriously... and even when they did, they were far from an juggernaut goal scoring team.

The Habs could very well surprise people - but you are in for a big one if you think they are going to be scoring "a lot of goals" this season.

This is a truly bizarre response.

What could you possibly think the results of the past 27 years have to do with anything at all?

Why would you even bring up how many goals they score in a season, as if it has anything to with with what will happen next year?

In the last 100 years, the Maple Leafs have only had one player eclipse sixty goals in the season, so therefore, Matthews has a 1 in a 100 chance of scoring 60 goals this season?

Dude, what are you talking about here?

 

[Golden_Jet]

That's why he does not deserve 3M more than Nylander. Makes no sense.

no-one thinks that.

 

[HockeyVirus]

no-one thinks that.

Then why are people arguing it here? More Leafs bad?

I think Leaf fans would personally strap the entire front office to a train out of town if they paid Marner 13M

 

[DeletedUser539]

Then why are people arguing it here? More Leafs bad?

I think Leaf fans would personally strap the entire front office to a train out of town if they paid Marner 13M

Leafs should pay marner 17 mil

 

[KevinRedkey]

1. This is a truly bizarre response.

2. What could you possibly think the results of the past 27 years have to do with anything at all?

3. Why would you even bring up how many goals they score in a season, as if it has anything to with with what will happen next year?

4. In the last 100 years, the Maple Leafs have only had one player eclipse sixty goals in the season, so therefore, Matthews has a 1 in a 100 chance of scoring 60 goals this season?

5. Dude, what are you talking about here?

1. I used history as context, which is common and not remotely bizarre. What's bizarre is not understanding it to the level you have.

2. History is often (but not always) the best indicator to predict the future. Pretty simple to most.

3. Again.. history (3rd time now). Why do people think McDavid will score a lot of points? Because he has. Why don't people think that of Artem Zub? Because he hasn't. Simple stuff once again.

4. Now you're using history (very good!) but ignoring context (very bad). Matthews himself is a great goal scorer. Suggesting he repeats his own history isn't bizzare. Saying Tavares will do it on the other hand, would be. Maybe one day you'll be able to learn more about using history and context to form a reliable prediction.

5. I was talking about predictions based on historical data.

Hope that cleared it up for you. In case you're still confused, I'll add more context to what I was replying to originally...
Theres no hard definition regarding a team scoring 'a lot of goals', but finishing bottom half of the league is certainly doesn't qualify (The Habs were 26th). Most would probably say top-5 or maybe top-10 but it will vary. Assuming scoring stays the same as last year, the Habs would need to up their goals total by 56. To be top-10 it would be +34. It's unusual for a team to rise by that much in a single year (history!), and no one in their right mind thinks the Habs have made the moves required to do so. Using a massive sample size (27yrs) was to show how it's a bad predicition overall, and not to say it's relevant to next season (that's called context, which you seem to struggle with). What is relevant is their current roster players which collectively scored a low number of goals last year and the years prior. Unless you think they are going to 'score a lot of goals', you're arguing about nothing and are just upset you got confused so easily.

 

[Essenege]

I’m not overly optimistic on the Habs chance but…on betting sites, odds for playoffs were:

Detroit 2:1
Sens 1.8:1
Habs 8.5:1

I think these odds are ridiculous. Went long 250$ there, Habs are going to have a killer start, mark my words, I’m closing this bet 2:1 by end of November. They’ll falter in the second half.

 

[Satanphonehome]

These aren't my predictions, but they kinda sum up what I hear and see:

1. Yeah, Florida got worse, but they are the Stanley Cup champions.
2. Everybody's counted Boston out before and it never happens. It won't this year either
3. Toronto will do what Toronto always does: score goals, make the playoffs easily and get knocked out
4. Everybody's counted Tampa out before and it never happens. It won't this year either
5. Detroit's OK, but they just ain't got the horses
6. Everybody's predicted Buffalo in before and it never happens. It won't this year either
7. Ottawa added Ullmark, I'm not saying they will, but this could be the year they finally put it all together and make a move
8. Montreal is headed in the right direction, but it's not their time yet.

So basically, your consensus is "more of the same."
Boring bunch, ain't ya?

 

[sabremike]

These aren't my predictions, but they kinda sum up what I hear and see:

1. Yeah, Florida got worse, but they are the Stanley Cup champions.
2. Everybody's counted Boston out before and it never happens. It won't this year either
3. Toronto will do what Toronto always does: score goals, make the playoffs easily and get knocked out
4. Everybody's counted Tampa out before and it never happens. It won't this year either
5. Detroit's OK, but they just ain't got the horses
6. Everybody's predicted Buffalo in before and it never happens. It won't this year either
7. Ottawa added Ullmark, I'm not saying they will, but this could be the year they finally put it all together and make a move
8. Montreal is headed in the right direction, but it's not their time yet.

So basically, your consensus is "more of the same."
Boring bunch, ain't ya?

The last time the Sabres made the playoffs was essentially the last time they had a top level NHL coach (smoke and mirrors Abysmal doesn't count). You'll never believe who they hired to be our new coach this season...

 

[Pavels Dog]

My team has yet to break through that's true.

But No they do not belong in the bad group.

My team is a consistent top 10 team in the league.

I could not watch a single game, or single highlight all year, I could tune in in April and I could all but guarantee I'd see my team in the playoffs because the Leafs are a very good team that hasn't broken through yet.

Detroit, Buffalo and Montreal? I could all but guarantee those teams won't be in the playoffs, because those teams are awful and 2 of them did nothing to get better in the off season, Montreal did pick up Laine so they might be better we will see but either way they are staying in the bad group for at least another year regardless of if Laine scores 10 goals or 50 goals.

At least Ottawa made moves to try and get out of the bad group we will see if it works.

One of the weirdest flexes about following the Leafs I've seen.
"I don't even have to WATCH my team! Haha!".

If Detroit didn't miss the playoffs on a fluke tiebreaker it would be interesting what your argument would actually be. Last year you predicted no improvement because they signed Justin Holl. They ended up improving by 11 points. So I'm guessing you would have a similarly weak analysis.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

The last time the Sabres made the playoffs was essentially the last time they had a top level NHL coach (smoke and mirrors Abysmal doesn't count). You'll never believe who they hired to be our new coach this season...

Did they also get prime Ryan Miller back?

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

One of the weirdest flexes about following the Leafs I've seen.
"I don't even have to WATCH my team! Haha!".

If Detroit didn't miss the playoffs on a fluke tiebreaker it would be interesting what your argument would actually be. Last year you predicted no improvement because they signed Justin Holl. They ended up improving by 11 points. So I'm guessing you would have a similarly weak analysis.

The point I'm making is that baring multiple season and/or career ending injury my team is a lock for the playoffs.

 

[Fatass]

These aren't my predictions, but they kinda sum up what I hear and see:

1. Yeah, Florida got worse, but they are the Stanley Cup champions.
2. Everybody's counted Boston out before and it never happens. It won't this year either
3. Toronto will do what Toronto always does: score goals, make the playoffs easily and get knocked out
4. Everybody's counted Tampa out before and it never happens. It won't this year either
5. Detroit's OK, but they just ain't got the horses
6. Everybody's predicted Buffalo in before and it never happens. It won't this year either
7. Ottawa added Ullmark, I'm not saying they will, but this could be the year they finally put it all together and make a move
8. Montreal is headed in the right direction, but it's not their time yet.

So basically, your consensus is "more of the same."
Boring bunch, ain't ya?

Yup. There’s a clear top four and a clear bottom four. The top four could finish in any order but they will all be in the playoffs.
The bottom four is easier to predict.
Ottawa
Buffalo
Detroit
Montreal

 

[Pavels Dog]

The point I'm making is that baring multiple season and/or career ending injury my team is a lock for the playoffs.

They had the 15th most regulation wins in the league last season. 13th most ROW. Yeah, tbh they're probably close to a lock, but crazier things have happened, it's not like they're running away with the President's trophy year in and year out.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

I’m not overly optimistic on the Habs chance but…on betting sites, odds for playoffs were:

Detroit 2:1
Sens 1.8:1
Habs 8.5:1

I think these odds are ridiculous. Went long 250$ there, Habs are going to have a killer start, mark my words, I’m closing this bet 2:1 by end of November. They’ll falter in the second half.

People are sleeping on the Habs. The additions of Laine, Hutson and a healthy Dach might take them to the playoffs. They've had a steady progression, getting more points every season from 55 to 68, to 76 and did this despite a boatload of injuries. The additions will help mitigate injuries and bolster the lineup, including more young players getting closer to be ready for the NHL, like Mailloux, Reinbacher and Beck, to help mitigate injuries further. They could potentially end-up with around 85 to 90 points, bringing them closer to the playoffs.

 

[Pavels Dog]

People are sleeping on the Habs. The additions of Laine, Hutson and a healthy Dach might take them to the playoffs. They've had a steady progression, getting more points every season from 55 to 68, to 76 and did this despite a boatload of injuries. The additions will help mitigate injuries and bolster the lineup, including more young players getting closer to be ready for the NHL, like Mailloux, Reinbacher and Beck, to help mitigate injuries further. They could potentially end-up with around 85 to 90 points, bringing them closer to the playoffs.

They're gonna be a defensive powerhouse with the addition of known defensive studs Laine and Hutson.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

They're gonna be a defensive powerhouse with the addition of known defensive studs Laine and Hutson.

You must have reading comprehension problems.

Don't need to be a defensive powerhouse to beat Detroit, as the last two games of the season showed, nor to make the playoffs.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Yup. There’s a clear top four and a clear bottom four. The top four could finish in any order but they will all be in the playoffs.
The bottom four is easier to predict.
Ottawa
Buffalo
Detroit
Montreal

Imo, the bottom 4 are harder to predict. Any of them could be in the mix for the playoffs or finish last. Also, I bet both wildcards will come from this division. I think one of these teams will make it in.

 

[sabremike]

Did they also get prime Ryan Miller back?

UPL actually wasn't far off from that level last season (which gives you an idea how much everything else was screwed up. Without him we finish bottom 5).

 

[Pavels Dog]

You must have reading comprehension problems.

Don't need to be a defensive powerhouse to beat Detroit, as the last two games of the season showed, nor to make the playoffs.

The last two games... that Detroit won?

 

[nbwingsfan]

Do you remember when HFboards was trying to convince leaf fans that Matthews was just a 40 goal scorer? You remember that? It was right after he scored 60 and had a ‘down’ year due to injury and HFboards was convinced he had ‘regressed to the mean’, and his 60 was a one-off fluke?

Well, leaf fans remember

Do you remember what Matthews did the following year? He scored 69 goals

I’ll take leaf fans assessment of their own players over hfboards 100 times out of 100

The hfboards hate of all things leaf just blinds you

Remember when Leaf fans said Murray was a great pickup?

Or Brodie was a great trade for Kadri?

Or Tavares made them the top cup contender ?

Or Dermott/Percy/Gardiner/Zaitsev were all great top 4D leading a strong D?

Bertuzzi would score 30+

Robertson was an untouchable prospect?


We all remember this.

 

[Lshap]

1. I used history as context, which is common and not remotely bizarre. What's bizarre is not understanding it to the level you have.

2. History is often (but not always) the best indicator to predict the future. Pretty simple to most.

3. Again.. history (3rd time now). Why do people think McDavid will score a lot of points? Because he has. Why don't people think that of Artem Zub? Because he hasn't. Simple stuff once again.

4. Now you're using history (very good!) but ignoring context (very bad). Matthews himself is a great goal scorer. Suggesting he repeats his own history isn't bizzare. Saying Tavares will do it on the other hand, would be. Maybe one day you'll be able to learn more about using history and context to form a reliable prediction.

5. I was talking about predictions based on historical data.

Hope that cleared it up for you. In case you're still confused, I'll add more context to what I was replying to originally...
Theres no hard definition regarding a team scoring 'a lot of goals', but finishing bottom half of the league is certainly doesn't qualify (The Habs were 26th). Most would probably say top-5 or maybe top-10 but it will vary. Assuming scoring stays the same as last year, the Habs would need to up their goals total by 56. To be top-10 it would be +34. It's unusual for a team to rise by that much in a single year (history!), and no one in their right mind thinks the Habs have made the moves required to do so. Using a massive sample size (27yrs) was to show how it's a bad predicition overall, and not to say it's relevant to next season (that's called context, which you seem to struggle with). What is relevant is their current roster players which collectively scored a low number of goals last year and the years prior. Unless you think they are going to 'score a lot of goals', you're arguing about nothing and are just upset you got confused so easily.

From the previous season to last season, Detroit was +38 in goals, Nashville was +43, Colorado +28, Arizona +31. Scoring changes substantially for some teams every year – there's your historic context. Montreal's roster is very young and improving each season. They're as likely to take the next step as any upward-trending team.

 

[Lshap]

People are sleeping on the Habs. The additions of Laine, Hutson and a healthy Dach might take them to the playoffs. They've had a steady progression, getting more points every season from 55 to 68, to 76 and did this despite a boatload of injuries. The additions will help mitigate injuries and bolster the lineup, including more young players getting closer to be ready for the NHL, like Mailloux, Reinbacher and Beck, to help mitigate injuries further. They could potentially end-up with around 85 to 90 points, bringing them closer to the playoffs.

Fans miss what they can't see. Everyone noticed the Laine trade, but most of Montreal's improvements happened quietly and gradually. Development of their young core, high-end rookies, a healthy Dach – not as noticeable from the outside, which is why non-fans assume nothing will change this season. As you said, the Habs have been creeping upwards each season. Every indication is they'll continue moving up.

 

[ZYXWVUT]

I think the top four remain as it has been, in whatever order. Beyond that, I think Buffalo finds a way to snatch the last WC, thus five from the Atlantic are in the postseason.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

The last two games... that Detroit won?

Both games won by a single goal, one in OT, the other in SO, both were 5-4, but yeah, dEFeNsiVE PoWErhOuSe

 

[Seb]

Habs will probably be in the mix to fight for a playoffs spot, it's hard to predict if they will make it or not this year. That being said, I'm sure the team will surprise many and eyes will be opened.

This is the year people will start taking the Habs seriously going forward.