LEAFS GDT Atlantic Division - Race to the 1st

[JadedRandom]

Florida has a 4 point lead on Ottawa. It's next to impossible they'll cross them so forget it.

Ottawa has a 3 point lead on the Habs, and Tampa has a 3 point lead on Florida.

Ideal is Florida and Tampa beat each other up in the 1st round.

Unlikely any of these teams cross each other anymore. Going 50% or 4/8 w a 3pt lead means 7/8 points are needed just to tie.

Leafs Ottawa is very likely now. If they can't beat Ottawa they never deserved a cup anyway

Next game for Montreal is against Ottawa on Friday.

Montreal wins that game and they're 1 point behind with 3 games to play.

Long story short, it's not set in stone that if Toronto wins the division they face Ottawa.

Can you imagine how gutted the fanbase would be if Toronto lost to Montreal again in the playoffs?

I agree with most here that Battle of Ontario would be more fun though, it's been a lot longer since that matchup.

 

[Voodoo Child]

Refreshed numbers:

Toronto 78-100
Tampa 78-97
Florida 78-94
Ottawa(!) 78-90

We have one hard game against CAR and 3 easy ones against the Habs, Wings and BUF.

Ottawa can't catch us.

Florida is basically already in run the table mode, but if they go 4-0 and the Leafs go 1-3, they still have less ROW - I don't know which tiebreaker plays here hope it isn't H2H.

Tampa is still in the mix though but suppose the Leafs go 2-2,they need 3-0-1 and to Max their odds with tiebreakers.

Start looking for hotels in Ottawa, boyo.

 

[LaPlante94]

If we finish that way, we can still lose the division - particularly if it's a OTL against Buffalo (which most fans would sign up for given we rarely win in Buffalo). Tampa essentially has 4 meaningless games (for the other team).

Buffalo in Buffalo seems to be an auto-loss. Montreal can beat the Sens the night before so they're now playing for WC1 being 1 point behind Ottawa. Carolina could be playing for potential home ice against us. Buffalo game is meaningless for Buffalo but we rarely win on the road in Buffalo. Detroit we usually do well against.

Still lots of things in the air. The Leafs can go 0-4 with that schedule just as easily as 4-0. Hopefully Tampa loses and Florida actually plays for something when they play Tampa on Tuesday (Florida on a B2B and last game of their season - likely resting players unless they have a chance at home ice).

Only way TB wins the division is if they win every game in regulation and we lose 3/4 in regulation. We beat them every game we played them this season so they have to finish with more regulation wins than us and we're tied atm with 39. Buffalo is on a tear atm and is one of the hottest teams in the league so that's not gonna be an easy game for us or TB. Florida is starting to get healthy so that's another game that won't be easy for TB either. If we lose the division it's probably because our guys sucked and not because of TB and their schedule. I don't think TB goes 4-0 this final stretch and I don't think we go 0-4 either.

 

[Divine]

Only way TB wins the division is if they win every game in regulation and we lose 3/4 in regulation. We beat them every game we played them this season so they have to finish with more regulation wins than us and we're tied atm with 39. Buffalo is on a tear atm and is one of the hottest teams in the league so that's not gonna be an easy game for us or TB. Florida is starting to get healthy so that's another game that won't be easy for TB either. If we lose the division it's probably because our guys sucked and not because of TB and their schedule. I don't think TB goes 4-0 this final stretch and I don't think we go 0-4 either.

This is not true. The first tiebreaker is RW and we're literally tied with Tampa for them (because we won in OT). I think you're confusing ROW with RW. The first tiebreaker is RW, and we're tied with Tampa, it won't go to the second tiebreaker if Tampa gets 1 more RW win than us in the next 4 games.

For example:

Leafs go 2-1-1
Tampa goes 4-0-0

In that scenario, the Leafs can win all their games in regulation and Tampa can win three of their games in regulation and the other in the shootout - they still overtake us. Tampa just needs 1 more RW than us for the tiebreaker.

 

[LaPlante94]

This is not true. The first tiebreaker is RW and we're literally tied with Tampa for them (because we won in OT).

Leafs go 2-1-1
Tampa goes 4-0-0

Leafs ca win all their games in regulation and Tampa can win all their games in the shootout - they still overtake it. Tampa just needs 1 more RW than us for the tiebreaker.

If those records you posted happened with TB winning all 4 in a SO then we win the division. Both teams finish with 105 points and we win the tiebreaker because of our record against them. TB is 3 points behind us with 4 games remaining. 4 regulation wins for them is the only way where they have a chance of winning the division 100% because then that means we have to win at least 2 games in regulation and get at least 1 point in the other 2 games. We win 3/4 TB has no chance. We go 2-0-2 then TB has no chance. We go 1-0-4 TB has a chance. We go 1-4-0 TB has a chance. Seeing our schedule I don't see how we can't at least go 2-0-2 to finish out or even go 3-1-0

 

[Divine]

If those records you posted happened with TB winning all 4 in a SO then we win the division. Both teams finish with 105 points and we win the tiebreaker because of our record against them. TB is 3 points behind us with 4 games remaining. 4 regulation wins for them is the only way where they have a chance of winning the division 100% because then that means we have to win at least 2 games in regulation and get at least 1 point in the other 2 games. We win 3/4 TB has no chance. We go 2-0-2 then TB has no chance. We go 1-0-4 TB has a chance. We go 1-4-0 TB has a chance. Seeing our schedule I don't see how we can't at least go 2-0-2 to finish out or even go 3-1-0

First tiebreaker is regulation wins.
Second tiebreaker is regulation + overtime wins.
Third tiebreaker is total wins.
Fourth tiebreaker is head to head matchup.

Essentially, anything short of us getting 6 points in our remaining 4 games gives Tampa a chance to win the division. So either win 3 of our 4 games or win 2 and get a point in the other two. Any combination of 6 points guarantees us the division, anything less and we can lose it.

The Leafs can go 2(RW)-1-1 and Tampa can go 4(3RW)-0-0 and they get the tiebreaker on us.

As it currently stands, the Leafs either need to win 3 of their 4 remaining games to control their own fate or go 2-0-2. That's .750 hockey and no guarantee.

 

[Kiwi]

We win out, we finish first
That's the only thing to think about, we control our own destiny

Show you deserve 1st then make it count, that's what a good team would do

 

[LeafalCrusader]

Tampa plays both on a B2B their next 2 games while they sit rested.

So yes, it does get easier than that and Tampa has it.

We do play Montreal and Detroit on the second half of back to backs with us rested. We're going to be in tough Sunday traveling to Carolina for a afternoon game for some reason though.

 

[Divine]

We do play Montreal and Detroit on the second half of back to backs with us rested. We're going to be in tough Sunday traveling to Carolina for a afternoon game for some reason though.

Buffalo in Buffalo is also always tough. Habs have won 6 in a row and could be 7 by the time they play us - I wouldn't take them lightly. Carolina on the second half of a B2B sucks, they'll also be on a B2B but with no travel and at home and they finish earlier than us the night before.

Winning tonight in regulation would have been a great help, but the refs had other ideas. We need to play .750 hockey the rest of the season to guarantee the division.

 

[LaPlante94]

First tiebreaker is regulation win.
Second tiebreaker is regulation + overtime wins.

Anything short of the Leafs winning 3 of their 4 remaining games (in any fashion) gives Tampa the opportunity of winning their division.

The Leafs can go 2(RW)-1-1 and Tampa can go 4(3RW)-0-0 and they get the tiebreaker on us.

As it currently stands, the Leafs need to win 3 of their 4 remaining games to control their own fate. That's .750 hockey and no guarantee.

If you want to go by ROW we are up by 4 in that category as well. Regulation wins is the only category they can beat us on and they would have to win all 4 games in regulation to make us have to earn the division. Again though, even if they win all 4 in regulation we just have to go 2-0-2 in the final 4. Florida is a much better team on home ice and TB is bad away from Home so if you think Florida isn't gonna try and pass TB in the standings and beat them the game they play then you're crazy.

 

[Divine]

If you want to go by ROW we are up by 4 in that category as well. Regulation wins is the only category they can beat us on and they would have to win all 4 games in regulation to make us have to earn the division. Again though, even if they win all 4 in regulation we just have to go 2-0-2 in the final 4. Florida is a much better team on home ice and TB is bad away from Home so if you think Florida isn't gonna try and pass TB in the standings and beat them the game they play then you're crazy.

I don't know why you keep saying this. It's not true. Tampa doesn't have to win a single game in regulation to win the division, let alone all 4. Heck they can win the division without a single win period if they go 0-0-4 and we go 0-4-0.

We control our own fate but it's nowhere close to Tampa has to go 4-0-0 in regulation to take the division.

Florida is going to be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, on the second half of a B2B on the road, and playing their last game of the season (their season ends Tuesday) - that could very well be a meaningless game for Florida. They might rest all their players that game if Tampa is ahead of them. If home ice is on the line, then yes, I can see Florida try to win but that's literally the last game of their season so they'll know if they have a chance at home ice or not before that game.

 

[LaPlante94]

I don't know why you keep saying this. It's not true. Tampa doesn't have to win a single game in regulation to win the division, let alone all 4. Heck they can win the division without a single win period if they go 0-0-4 and we go 0-4-0.

We control our own fate but it's nowhere close to Tampa has to go 4-0-0 in regulation to take the division.

Florida is going to be playing their third game in 4 nights, on the second half of a B2B, and playing their last game of the season (their season ends Tuesday) - that could very well be a meaningless game for us. They might rest all their players that game if Tampa is ahead of them.

Damn. Can't even get 1 point against 2 teams that missed the playoffs in this scenario. How about this one. We both go 0-4-0 and we win the division or Florida goes 4-0-0 and wins the division. Now things are getting crazy.

 

[Divine]

Damn. Can't even get 1 point against 2 teams that missed the playoffs in this scenario. How about this one. We both go 0-4-0 and we win the division or Florida goes 4-0-0 and wins the division. Now things are getting crazy.

Yeah, technically that's still possible. The Leafs just need 1 RW to guarantee home ice and prevent Florida from passing them. As of right now the Leafs can still fall to third in the division in the worst case scenario.

Anyway you slice it though, the Leafs need to go .750 to win the division as of right now. Anything less than .750 and the division is up for grabs.

 

[TopCheeseShotta]

FLA - Don't like how we matchup
OTT - Don't like how we matchup
MTL - Don't like how we matchup
TB? - Take that matchup all day!

Ah well.. We'll just have to beat 1 of those other 3 in Round 1 somehow! Then walk TB like only we know how in Round 2!!

 

[Jojalu]

Jesus, this place is full of sad sacks. The Leafs are 5th overall in the league. Yes, many things this season have been very easy for them, especially when it comes to playing teams like Buffalo and Montreal.

I agree that this team under a new coach has done some things better, but the history of this core makes it hard to forget. They have blown too many big moments for a lot of people to fully trust. Not even just this core.

4 conference finals, zero finals, so many bad teams over the past 58 years.

History just is hard to ignore.

 

[TorMapleJays]

Refreshed numbers:

Toronto 78-100
Tampa 78-97
Florida 78-94
Ottawa(!) 78-90

We have one hard game against CAR and 3 easy ones against the Habs, Wings and BUF.

Ottawa can't catch us.

Florida is basically already in run the table mode, but if they go 4-0 and the Leafs go 1-3, they still have less ROW - I don't know which tiebreaker plays here hope it isn't H2H.

Tampa is still in the mix though but suppose the Leafs go 2-2,they need 3-0-1 and to Max their odds with tiebreakers.

Start looking for hotels in Ottawa, boyo.

Montreal is 3 pts back of Ottawa

 

[Gary Nylund]

We have one hard game against CAR and 3 easy ones against the Habs, Wings and BUF.

Ottawa can't catch us.

No games are ever a sure thing. This should be especially clear for Leaf fans as we only recently lost to the teams that are 30th and 32nd overall.

 

[IPS]

Playoffs gotta start already.

The normal discourse on the board is getting very tired and repetitive.

 

[Voodoo Child]

No games are ever a sure thing. This should be especially clear for Leaf fans as we only recently lost to the teams that are 30th and 32nd overall.

Yes...I do worry with 3 games against weaker teams they'll find some way to go 1-1-1 or something, but mathematically Ottawa can only get 98 points now.

They can go f*** off, but a part of me is happy for the Habs fan base for them making it; sure they're French (eww), but they're an O6 crew. Take away the Habs and the city only has Jazzfest, F1 and gentleman's clubs.

Good for them, even if they'll get dusted by Washington in 5 or 6 and locked out of Hagens-Schaefer-Misa.

Edit: In a perfect world I'd rather play the Habs than the Sens, but I don't think either causes too much worry...but this group has let us down before, several times before...

 

[kevsh]

If we've learned anything about this group it's never overestimate their hunger or motivation (and therefore ability) to win seemingly "easy" games against bad teams.

Therefore, even with the division title still not decided it is by no means a lock they will beat the Habs, Wings and/or Sabres. The safe bet is they'll probably come away from that set with 4 points. Anything less and it comes down to the Carolina game.

With the Canes struggling and not likely to drop out of 2nd, they don't have a lot of motivation outside of righting the ship before the playoffs starts. So Toronto should win that but ... Again, with this team.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Yes...I do worry with 3 games against weaker teams they'll find some way to go 1-1-1 or something, but mathematically Ottawa can only get 98 points now.

They can go f*** off, but a part of me is happy for the Habs fan base for them making it; sure they're French (eww), but they're an O6 crew. Take away the Habs and the city only has Jazzfest, F1 and gentleman's clubs.

Good for them, even if they'll get dusted by Washington in 5 or 6 and locked out of Hagens-Schaefer-Misa.

Edit: In a perfect world I'd rather play the Habs than the Sens, but I don't think either causes too much worry...but this group has let us down before, several times before...

I'm not too worried. Chances are we get Ottawa round one which is what I want but still, I take nothing for granted.

I'm happy for MTL as well. I hate them when we play them, and I don't want them winning the cup but if there's any chance at all we get to play them, that would be awesome. I'd rather play them as well but mostly I just want to avoid Florida, and playing Ottawa would be very exciting as well!

 

[1specter]

If we've learned anything about this group it's never overestimate their hunger or motivation (and therefore ability) to win seemingly "easy" games against bad teams.

Therefore, even with the division title still not decided it is by no means a lock they will beat the Habs, Wings and/or Sabres. The safe bet is they'll probably come away from that set with 4 points. Anything less and it comes down to the Carolina game.

With the Canes struggling and not likely to drop out of 2nd, they don't have a lot of motivation outside of righting the ship before the playoffs starts. So Toronto should win that but ... Again, with this team.

We just need to secure 4 pts and for Tampa to not do any better than 3-0-1 and that should be enough.

 

[1specter]

FLA - Don't like how we matchup
OTT - Don't like how we matchup
MTL - Don't like how we matchup
TB? - Take that matchup all day!

Ah well.. We'll just have to beat 1 of those other 3 in Round 1 somehow! Then walk TB like only we know how in Round 2!!

Lol MTL is not a bad matchup. I know people have PTSD from 2021, but there is no Carey Price in net. Price is an all time great and probably the best goalie of the modern generation. Habs have had a good season but they've overachieved big time.

 

[Evilhomer]

Lol MTL is not a bad matchup. I know people have PTSD from 2021, but there is no Carey Price in net. Price is an all time great and probably the best goalie of the modern generation. Habs have had a good season but they've overachieved big time.

The leafs would crush Montreal.

 

[Gary Nylund]

We just need to secure 4 pts and for Tampa to not do any better than 3-0-1 and that should be enough.

Ha yeah I did that math last night already, looks pretty good.