When the playoffs start, I expect the Leafs will be favourites over Tampa and Carolina, but not Florida (for obvious reasons) and Washington (because the conference leader usually gets the benefit of the doubt).
That is just completely false that they are isolated events. We can debate about how much each series predicts a later series’ outcome, but if you think it’s zero then I highly recommend looking into some basic statistics.
Tampa most likely.
I think even if Carolina were to have home ice, the Leafs would be small favourites on the betting line. Again, this is completely meaningless, which I know we all know.
If all variables were equal - same players each year against the same opponent (itself with the same players) each year - then sure, let's put weight on the predictive value of one year to the next.
That’s not how it works. All variables do not need to be the same. Some can be the same and I would argue the most important variables in the series have remained relatively the same.
If your sample size is 9, I would suggest it is not large enough to be statistically significant.
Well, you’d be wrong again then. It is statistically significant. Performing a chi-squared test with a 5% significance level, which is a very common test for significance, indicates that it is significant and that it is very unlikely that it came from a random sample. In fact, it would still be significant at the 3% level.
Okay, if you've done a calculation on this I won't argue with it. I guess what you are saying is that I would be wise to bet heavily against the Leafs in the playoffs this year?
He's being sarcastic, because he's spent the season being berated by the actual DD'ers and told that the Leafs suck and won't even make the playoffs, or will be out in Round 1 again...Then along comes Deeeebbie Downer.
Mostly because Antropovsky's refusal to come within 20 light years of reality is absolutely f***ing hilarious...Marner thread is still a treat.
Luckily, Ullmark is not Carey Price or Sergei Bobrovsky. Because the fact is, no Carey Price and Montreal loses that series easily.
Those posts about the Leafs being at risk to not make the playoffs after the team lost two games in a row were some of my favourite. Then when it was turned into entire threads? Brilliant.
I think you know that’s not what I’m saying. All I showed was that prior series do have an impact on one another. How much predictive power? Not sure, we can leave that to the professionals and their models. And at the end of the day this sport is extremely random as you say and anything can happen, but that doesn’t mean we should dismiss prior results.
To be clear, I have never said bad luck. Very much the contrary. I attribute most of the blame for those losses to the team's coaching staff and management at the time.
It's much more likely for a team that has gone on several deep runs and even made it to the SC Final to win vs a team who has one a single series in 8 years. This is a logical and irrefutable fact.
Ovechkin got bounced out of the 2nd round his entire career, Crosby and the Penguins legit owned them for like a decade
Sounds like a lot of excuses……..it’s supposed to be hard and we are supposed to have these 4 awesome players, the best in the league so I hear
So Matthews, Marner, Nylander and Tavares is on the same level as Ovi, Backstrom, Kuznetsov and Oshie? I thought they were better but I guess we were all fooled.
At ES, JT leads the league in goals and JT and Willy are tied for the team lead in points.
