The Sun: Atlantic Division Preview

[LeafsNet]

Bold.

I like it.

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Senators won’t score enough to make the playoffs.

Yep….pretty much the norm at this point. I see the Leafs finishing third…maybe second…if they don’t have a horrible Christmas stretch (which they normally do).

 

[Trapper]

If they can stay healthy, they’ll once again easily make the playoffs, if they can’t stay healthy it’s going to bet ugly. Tre’s signings are high risk, high reward, they’re going to need lots of luck and as a sixty year Leaf fan I can tell you luck has been in short supply……..


“Always look in the bright side of life, da dum da dum da dum………”

For all the talk of how strong the Atlantic is, we’ve bern fortunate that Montreal,Buffalo,Ottawa and Detroit just aren’t very good. That’s half the division you don’t have to worry about.

 

[darrylsittler27]

For all the talk of how strong the Atlantic is, we’ve bern fortunate that Montreal,Buffalo,Ottawa and Detroit just aren’t very good. That’s half the diWithvision you don’t have to worry about.

With all due respect, Detroit is run by Yzerman and playoff bound. The other 3 are better. Buff just got Ruff back. They were always competitive. Montreal needs 2 years but added Laine. Pt is won't be easy.

 

[bax]

With all due respect, Detroit is run by Yzerman and playoff bound. The other 3 are better. Buff just got Ruff back. They were always competitive. Montreal needs 2 years but added Laine. Pt is won't be easy.

That unfortunately might not matter for quite some time now.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

I posted on this topic on another board. It was only July 9. Not too much has changed since then and I don't think Laine changes things too much. Here's what I wrote:

Florida. They got worse. No doubt about this one, right? Replacing Montour and OEL with Schmidt and Boqvist is a hit. They lost Tarasenko and goaltending took a hit with Stolarz leaving and Bob aging. SC hangover? 110 points last year. Did they lose 10 points in the standings? Under/over 100 points.

Boston. They seemed from have improved with Lindholm and Zadorov. Though Debrusk will be missed and many believe Zadorov is a third paring guy, an improvement over Grzelcyk but how much? Ullmark got them 51 points last year, maybe Swayman plays a bit more and Korpisalo is a decent back up. It's hard to see Boston improving on 109 points. Perhaps a slight step back with some aging parts? Under/over 105 points.

Toronto. They were the second highest scoring team in the league last year and only lost Bertuzzi and his 21 goals up front. They appear stronger on D with Tanev, OEL and Haakanpaa replacing Brodie, Klingberg and Giordano. Goaltending was a disaster last year, so they look to have improved there. New coach too. Tavares is a year older but some youth injected last year could offset any decline in production. A slight improvement on last year's 102 points with an under/over of 104 points.

Tampa. This seems like a crumbling empire being held together by duct tape. Stamkos and Sergachev for Guentzel and McDonough seems like a wash at best, possibly a step down. They lost a bit of depth and their core is aging and showing it. Another slight step back seems likely from their 98 points last year. Under/over 94 points.

Detroit. They didn't make many big moves and seemed to replace the guys they lost. It's hard to say that Cam Talbot is the reason they will be better, or even Tarasenko based on the impact we saw him not have on Ottawa. Young players continuing to improve might the reason we see a slight increase on their 91 points from last year. Under/over 94 points.

Buffalo. Much like Detroit, no real big additions or losses. It's hard to imagine Aube-Kubel or Lafferty moving the dial here. Health and continued development of the young guys could bring some improvement in the points and possibly standings. Even a sizable improvement on their 84 points from last year may not move them up the standings. Under/over 90 points.

Ottawa. They could be the most improved team in the division...and still not very good. They improved with Ullmark, Jensen, Perron, and Amadio in and really only Chychrun out. If Ullmark is very good and young core players continue to develop they could see a jump from their 78 points last year...to an under/over of 88. Trending in the right direction, but not enough

Montreal. They didn't add enough and can't expect seismic gains from too many of their young guys. They have some aging vets too. No real reason to forecast improvment and with others improving they have to get points from some where; a slight regression on last year's 76 points with an under/over of 74.

So, based on the above...

Boston 105
Toronto 104
Florida 100
Detroit 94
Tampa 94
Buffalo 90
Ottawa 88
Montreal 74

...did I miss the mark on any team in particular? Why?

Nice homerism.

 

[conFABulator]

Nice homerism.

Nice contribution. Anything specific you disagree with?

 

[Evilhomer]

Nice contribution. Anything specific you disagree with?

Everyone needs to update their predictions to account for the fact that Boston won't have a goalie until December.

 

[The Shrike]

Everyone needs to update their predictions to account for the fact that Boston won't have a goalie until December.

We'll waive Murray, Boston will claim him, he'll go on a run, and we'll still finish behind them in the standings.

 

[conFABulator]

Everyone needs to update their predictions to account for the fact that Boston won't have a goalie until December.

True, not sure I would deduct too much. Boston always finds a way. However five points would knock them out of first

 

[Racer88]

We will finish 3rd, play a good team in the first round……and lose.
There will be lots of wailing, nashing of teeth, lessons learned and proclamations of we are not here to just sell jerseys aaaaaaand get ready to run it back the following year for the 10th time.
Until we see evidence to the contrary this is the most reasonable expectation

 

[Evilhomer]

We'll waive Murray, Boston will claim him, he'll go on a run, and we'll still finish behind them in the standings.

No team is claiming Matt Murray.

 

[Evilhomer]

True, not sure I would deduct too much. Boston always finds a way. However five points would knock them out of first

I think the loss of Swayman for 30ish games, and a likely slow start for him when he returns, is probably good for a 6-8 point drop in the standings for Boston.

 

[conFABulator]

I think the loss of Swayman for 30ish games, and a likely slow start for him when he returns, is probably good for a 6-8 point drop in the standings for Boston.

I agree. I thought the same with Krejci and Bergeron leaving last year. They always seem to find a way.

 

[Enniskillen]

Leafs win the division and lose game 7 to a wild card team, Buffalo or Wings. That will be so leafy.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I thought the same with Krejci and Bergeron leaving last year. They always seem to find a way.

They did drop off by 26 points last year...

 

[conFABulator]

They did drop off by 26 points last year.

That's true. They still got over 100 points though.

 

[Dekes For Days]

That's true. They still got over 100 points though.

Yeah, but it did impact them significantly, and they're now a team that is much more reliant on their goaltending, so losing that goaltending could cut a little deeper.

 

[Arzak]

No team is claiming Matt Murray.

Leafs might.

We'll wave him and claim him next day

 

[Racer88]

They did drop off by 26 points last year...

Yet they still bounced us from the playoffs. They continue to lose good players and are still better than us. That’s unacceptable

 

[Dekes For Days]

Yet they still bounced us from the playoffs. They continue to lose good players and are still better than us. That’s unacceptable

Not really sure what this has to do with the discussion. They are still a good team. They dropped off from the highest point total ever recorded. The point is that they aren't some magical entity that never has anything affect them. Their player losses did hurt them quite a bit, and losing Swayman (which is now a possibility, after losing Ullmark) would hurt them too, especially as their previous player losses made them more reliant on their goaltending.

Boston still had their goaltending last playoffs, and while Boston got worse last year, Toronto did too thanks to Treliving (which was indeed unacceptable), and then we ran into some pretty significant injuries in the playoffs.

 

[mjd1001]

I agree. I thought the same with Krejci and Bergeron leaving last year. They always seem to find a way.

-Tim Thomas has a great few years for the Bruins, when he is gone what do they do?
-They get Tukka Rask, who has basically a hall of fame career for them.
-Then when he's done..what do they do? Sign an 'average' Linus Ulmark from the Sabres and he turns into a Vezina winner.
-If you don't have Ulmark, or he's not playing well, the Bruins are shot, right? Enter Swayman.

I'm not saying the 'next guy' is going to lead them to the cup, but maybe its culture, maybe its coaching, maybe its just something in the Boston water. I wouldn't be surprised if they don't fall off a cliff if Swayman isn't there.

 

[notDatsyuk]

-Tim Thomas has a great few years for the Bruins, when he is gone what do they do?
-They get Tukka Rask, who has basically a hall of fame career for them.
-Then when he's done..what do they do? Sign an 'average' Linus Ulmark from the Sabres and he turns into a Vezina winner.
-If you don't have Ulmark, or he's not playing well, the Bruins are shot, right? Enter Swayman.

I'm not saying the 'next guy' is going to lead them to the cup, but maybe its culture, maybe its coaching, maybe its just something in the Boston water. I wouldn't be surprised if they don't fall off a cliff if Swayman isn't there.

As long as we're not dumb enough to trade them Hildeby for Korpisalo.

Once is enough.

 

[Fogelhund]

-Tim Thomas has a great few years for the Bruins, when he is gone what do they do?
-They get Tukka Rask, who has basically a hall of fame career for them.
-Then when he's done..what do they do? Sign an 'average' Linus Ulmark from the Sabres and he turns into a Vezina winner.
-If you don't have Ulmark, or he's not playing well, the Bruins are shot, right? Enter Swayman.

I'm not saying the 'next guy' is going to lead them to the cup, but maybe its culture, maybe its coaching, maybe its just something in the Boston water. I wouldn't be surprised if they don't fall off a cliff if Swayman isn't there.

Honestly, Ullmark looked good with Buffalo, but Buffalo was so terrible, the numbers didn't necessarily show it.

 

[Menzinger]

Honestly, Ullmark looked good with Buffalo, but Buffalo was so terrible, the numbers didn't necessarily show it.

It's not exactly shocking that even a good goalie looked poor in Buffalo - the Sabres have been continuously one of the worst teams of the cap era

Historically Boston has been a pretty well run team the last 15 or so years, but folks are acting like they can do no wrong, which I'm a wee bit skeptical about

 

[Evilhomer]

Honestly, Ullmark looked good with Buffalo, but Buffalo was so terrible, the numbers didn't necessarily show it.

I have a feeling that Ullmark is going to have a tough year in Ottawa.